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Race for world number 1 - predictions


Shankieboink

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I think its very interesting to see what's happening in the OWGR. If you don't care for the OWGR, stop reading right now as this long winded post will be very specific about that part of measuring success :). Right now J Day is holding on to the #1, but he is likely to lose it (atleast temporary). I'll explain it later in this text. The OWGR is as follows:

 

1. Jason Day 9.93

2. Rory McIllroy 9.49

3. Henrik Stenson 8.93

4. Dustin Johnson 8.85

5. Hideki Matsuyama 8.80

6. Jordan Spieth 7.78

7. Adam Scott 5.97

8. Justin Thomas 5.44

9. Sergio garcia 5.61

10. Patrick Reed 5.22

 

Between no 1 (J Day) and no 6 (J Spieth) it's very close, and between no 1 and no 5 it's only 1.13 pts difference. I'll focus on these top 6 players who are all household names, with the exception for H Matsuyama. I like to do predictions (some of you might have seen my betting thread) and here are my predictions for what will happen the next couple of months.

 

Predictions:

1. J Day has had back problemes and is getting back to the game. He has done so by a less than convincing 12th place in the "Tournament of Champions" and a MC at the "Farmers Insurance Open". I'm sure he will find his form again, but it could take a few tournaments and he will lose WR points very fast as he only has 40 registered tournaments. And as the OWGR works your total score is divided by the number of tournaments you have played. However the minimum divisor is 40, so if you are under 40 tournaments your score get pretty hurt and something that could happen to J Day. The swings in adjusted ranking will be bigger if you have less tournaments. On the positive side he will earn pts very quickly if he plays well. I don't think he will for a while however and if he stays at about the same number of pts and the number of tournaments go up (the divisor) he will soon be down around 7pts and a 6-7th place in OWGR. I could give a mathimatical example, but the post is allready long winded :)

 

2. R McIllroy is in a similar position as J Day and is out with a rib injury. He has been on good level for his 5 last starts until the injury and has only played 41 tournaments. He is risking of going under the 40 tournament limit (described above) and when he is back he will probably need to have a few tournaments before he makes results again. I do think McIllroy might be out for a shorter time than J Day was, and it should have less effect on his ranking. However, I do expect a drop of about 1 pts (3-5th OWGR).

 

3. H Stenson didn't look his best (iron play) in his last start but still managed a 2nd at the Dubai desser classic. He is perhaps the best player in the world together with M Kaymer at playing in the dessert (lived down there for a long time) so It's unsure how this finnish translates for a course in the US etc. However, he is healthy and he has 6 straight T10 finnishes so I expect him to build on the points he has. I do belive he will pass both J Day and R McIllroy in 4-7 weeks.

 

4. D Johnson, I have a hard time figuring this guy out. Some rounds he is just perfect, but other rounds you see flaws in his game that the other top players on this list doesn't have. He isn't one of those players like Stenson who can go years wothout missing a cut, but on the other hand I do think we can see more major wins from him. He had a MC at the Farmers, and a T2 before that so no big concern. I think he will pile pts and be around where he is at, posibly grab a win just to get back into some slumps and losing OWGR pts. I don't expect him to get much higher than this on the OWGR, but short term he could posibly make it to the #1 with a win. However temporary, I don't expect the concistency of him keeping an score around 10.00 or more OWGR pts.

 

5. H Matsuyama is on a crazy roll. It's hard to say what we are seeing here, but his almost robotic and reptitive swing that results and great ballstriking shows a type of player that I'd expect consistency from. He is my major contender for the 1# in the comming months. I don't expect him to stay at this level, if he do he will run away to perhaps 13.00 or more OWGR pts and it will be very hard for anyone to catch him. I don't see him starting to lose places any time soon.

 

6. J Spieth has played a bit better in his last couple of starts, but he needs to continue to improve if he is going to be one of the contenders for the #1. Something he really cares about. Short term I don't see him winning any tournaments, and will posibly lose some more ground in the OWGR. I think Masters wi9ll be a turning point however. He always plays good there,and the putting will give him a good finnish. That could be the confidence boost needed.

 

Here is my predicted OWGR for monday before the Masters:

 

1. Hideki Matsuyama 10.20

2. Henrik Stenson 9.40

3. Rory McIllroy 8.80

4. Dustin Johnson 8.00

5. Jason Day 7.80

6. Jordan Spieth 7.20

7. Sergio garcia 7.00

8. Ricky Fowler 5.50

9. Justin Thomas 5.40

10. Patrick Reed 5.30

 

 

Fire away, why am I wrong? :) (sorry for any grammar, not native language)

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i have a feeling it will change several times as the year goes on. The days of someone staying number one for a long period of time is over. There are too many good players.

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I don't think Rory will have many issues coming back from his rib injury. He seems to be in a good spot personally, and with him playing the equipment that he chooses I predict really good things from him this year.

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I don't have any predictions, but it is pretty interesting. I don't recall another time when there were five players within a win of #1.

(Spieth is a full point behind Matsuyama and a "big divisor" guy, so even a major win wouldn't get him there)

 

It's crazy how fast players can climb because of this. If Rahm keeps playing well, he could be top 5 in the world by the time he hits 40 events played. He's played only 16 counting events and has 103 points (a true average of 6.4. Which would be 7th in the world. But his divisor is 40!). If he maintains or improves his play just a little, by the time he hits 40 events he'll be top 6/7 in the world at a bare minimum. All the points he earns for the next 24 events are basically free points!

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I don't see Adam Scott falling out of the top 10, he'll be playing the following events prior to Augusta and from what I saw at his last start in Singapore (T9) is in good form heading into the season.

 

- Genesis Open

- Honda Classic

- WGC Mexico

- Arnold Palmer

- WGC Match Play

 

That should be enough starts to earn enough points to stay in the OWGR top 10 if he plays good.

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i vote hideki, that swing is awesome and i like his 965 irons

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If DJ can get on a roll like he was until that final round of the FedEx Cup, I could see him making #1, but only temporarily like you said. Otherwise I think it will be a battle between Rory and Hideki with Spieth and Stenson lurking

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My educated guess is that DJ and Jordan will battle it out for #1 over the next 5 years. Just seems that everyone else on the list cannot stay healthy. Hideki is probably the exception to that rule, but just look at the stress that swing puts on his body. I'm not sure he can hold up either.

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My educated guess is that DJ and Jordan will battle it out for #1 over the next 5 years. Just seems that everyone else on the list cannot stay healthy. Hideki is probably the exception to that rule, but just look at the stress that swing puts on his body. I'm not sure he can hold up either.

 

Spieth? Maybe. DJ? Doubtful. Nice player, but he's 33 and has never been #1.

Rory is 5 years younger and despite his inability to stay healthy already has nearly 100 weeks at #1.

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I was actually talking about this with a friend over the weekend. Day had such a strong spring last year winning at Bay Hill, the Matchplay and then The Players that unless he gets back to playing the points gained from those events are going to start to drift away and that will impact on his ranking (I know that is not exactly how it happens but it is roughly).

 

I can't see him drifting to 5 between now and before The Masters though.

 

I think Hideki will cool off some before then as well and won't get to number one. Spieth doesn't seem a million miles away from getting a win and he will move back into the Top 5. I would have said Rory as being the next number but I think with him being injured he has given a real chance to Stenson and DJ to get to number one.

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My educated guess is that DJ and Jordan will battle it out for #1 over the next 5 years. Just seems that everyone else on the list cannot stay healthy. Hideki is probably the exception to that rule, but just look at the stress that swing puts on his body. I'm not sure he can hold up either.

 

Where did you get that education?

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have been thinking the same about Hideki , Stenson is my other pick.

 

I had pegged Rory with the way he was gaining confidence but I actually think the injury will slow him more. ( Hope I'm wrong as he usually tears through Florida)

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DJ gets dialed in (again) and wins another major. Gets some top 10's elsewhere along with another win. And lands himself in the #1 position.

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Spieth seems to be striking it better than last year and is still lights out with the short game. I think he's got at least 3 wins in him this season, probably another green jacket. He's so good, even underrated.

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If Spieth wins today (very likely with that 6 shot lead). We will have about 1pt between #1 & #6 in the world rankings. And then there will be this huge gap of about 3 pts between #6 and #7. This can be compared with that it is about 3 pts (same) difference between #7 & #35!

 

Do we have a "big 6?"

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My keyboard assessment:

 

Spieth has the most upside. Great putter and short game. Has natural size for effortless power. Swing is simple. Intelligent.

DJ has the most raw talent. Unbeatable if firing on all cylinders.

Day and Rory: swings for the fences. Ferrari type power, but Ferraris are fragile.

Matsuyama: great upside ..... we'll see.

Stenson: dark horse.

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Matsuyama: I think he has peaked and will cool off. He's been the hottest golfer on the planet for 4 months.

 

Stenson: He had his day in the sunshine last year and his age (41) will begin to be a factor like Phil. I expect him to slide down. His PGA Tour numbers aren't very good (win rate 3.2% which is less than Zach Johnson and Bubba)

 

McIlroy: Has the most talent of any on tour today, but his recent comments have led me to doubt his drive. Hopefully, he can get his attitude, health and golf game back to #1 levels soon.

 

Johnson: That US Open win (even with the USGA attacking him) will boost him to higher levels this year and he's about the age (33) where most hit their highest performance levels. Jack's highest win percentages were at age 32 and 33. Tiger's were at 31 and 33. Phil's at 35.

 

Day: For a young man he has had way too many health problems. That's a problem in the long run. And now he has putting issues.

 

Spieth: His win at Pebble was big. Now he just needs to perform well at Augusta. He just knows how to win. If he sticks to his game and ignores the big hitters, he will move up.

 

Sergio: At 37 he is playing better than ever.

 

Fowler: No way. He doesn't know how to win. He just knows how to make money.

 

Thomas: Too early to tell.

 

Reed: I expect him to move up.

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Spieth will regain the OWGR #1 this year... but after that it's anyone's guess. The top crop is so good right now that I don't expect anyone to hold on to that spot for more than a few months.

 

The most interesting thing I take out of this is that Adam Scott is probably the least talked about in this entire group. The last few times that was the case he's come through with some big wins. I'm penciling him in for a few good wins this year and he's my dark horse (if you can call him that) for the US Open at Erin Hills. In fact, here are my predictions for the majors by top 10 or 11-999:

 

Masters: Top 10 (1. Spieth 2. Matsuyama 3. Scott) (Dark Horse: Graham DeLaet)

US Open: Top 10 (1. Scott 2. DJ 3. Reed) (Dark Horse: Kelly Kraft)

The Open: 11-999 (would be great to see Phil get back up for another fight though) (Best Chance in the Top 10: Spieth)

PGA: who cares, everyone already forgot that Jimmy Walker won last year (Dark Horse: Mike Weir)

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Spieth will regain the OWGR #1 this year... but after that it's anyone's guess. The top crop is so good right now that I don't expect anyone to hold on to that spot for more than a few months.

 

The most interesting thing I take out of this is that Adam Scott is probably the least talked about in this entire group. The last few times that was the case he's come through with some big wins. I'm penciling him in for a few good wins this year and he's my dark horse (if you can call him that) for the US Open at Erin Hills. In fact, here are my predictions for the majors by top 10 or 11-999:

 

Masters: Top 10 (1. Spieth 2. Matsuyama 3. Scott) (Dark Horse: Graham DeLaet)

US Open: Top 10 (1. Scott 2. DJ 3. Reed) (Dark Horse: Kelly Kraft)

The Open: 11-999 (would be great to see Phil get back up for another fight though) (Best Chance in the Top 10: Spieth)

PGA: who cares, everyone already forgot that Jimmy Walker won last year (Dark Horse: Mike Weir)

 

I bet you could get 500-1 on him just making the field.

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Spieth will regain the OWGR #1 this year... but after that it's anyone's guess. The top crop is so good right now that I don't expect anyone to hold on to that spot for more than a few months.

 

The most interesting thing I take out of this is that Adam Scott is probably the least talked about in this entire group. The last few times that was the case he's come through with some big wins. I'm penciling him in for a few good wins this year and he's my dark horse (if you can call him that) for the US Open at Erin Hills. In fact, here are my predictions for the majors by top 10 or 11-999:

 

Masters: Top 10 (1. Spieth 2. Matsuyama 3. Scott) (Dark Horse: Graham DeLaet)

US Open: Top 10 (1. Scott 2. DJ 3. Reed) (Dark Horse: Kelly Kraft)

The Open: 11-999 (would be great to see Phil get back up for another fight though) (Best Chance in the Top 10: Spieth)

PGA: who cares, everyone already forgot that Jimmy Walker won last year (Dark Horse: Mike Weir)

 

You have a better chance of winning the lottery than Weir winning anything.

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