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Scratch versus Top-20 in the World Pro


Obee

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Course is 7,200 yards 75.7 146 slope. Scratch player is currently a 0.6 with an LI of +1.5.

 

Tour player is inside the top 20 in the world. What will the outcome be?

 

Match play. Scratch guy gets 3 a side.

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Net or straight up? I sense a good story....

 

Sorry, it cut off the bottom of my post. The scratch player gets three strokes a side. It's an 18 hole match play bet.

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The best in the world are probably around +6 or +7 handicaps. Add to that the fact that the scratch player probably doesn't regularly play on courses that long or with that high of a course rating/slope. The tour player should win on average by 3-4 a side. This is all purely speculative, obviously, haha.

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Same tees? If the scratch is you you've said in the past you don't hit it very far, I'll go with the pro under these conditions.

 

Put another way, top 20 player makes cut by 12 or more shots a few times a year at least. Does that mean scratch am could make a cut or two? Me thinks not

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Something similar to this scenario actually came up a few weeks ago on the CBS Broadcast. McCord was saying he plays money games with Jon Rahm. He said Rahm gives him 6 strokes. Nantz tried to call him out on it, but McCord said Rahm plays to a +3, and he plays to a -3 and Rahm plays from the back, McCord from the forward tees. No mention as to who won these games.

 

With that said, I would think 9 out of 10 times Rahm beats him. So to the point of this post, I would think in a match play situation, the scratch golfer could win maybe 3 out of 10?

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Something similar to this scenario actually came up a few weeks ago on the CBS Broadcast. McCord was saying he plays money games with Jon Rahm. He said Rahm gives him 6 strokes. Nantz tried to call him out on it, but McCord said Rahm plays to a +3, and he plays to a -3 and Rahm plays from the back, McCord from the forward tees. No mention as to who won these games.

 

With that said, I would think 9 out of 10 times Rahm beats him. So to the point of this post, I would think in a match play situation, the scratch golfer could win maybe 3 out of 10?

I've learned from this story that John Rahm is the biggest sandbagger in the history of golf.

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The 0.6 Am would have a CH = 1. His scoring average on a 75.7 course would be around 78-79. Q: does he normally play courses of this difficulty? If he does, that would help. (My personal belief is the handicap system works well as a player moves up in yardage, but it does not work so well as one moves back, especially if one moves way back from his typical tee choice distance.)

 

The top 20 pro should have a scoring average around 69 at the highest (on tour set-ups). Because handicaps use only the best differentials, which should average around 67-68 on this course, he would likely have a CH around +8 on this course. This course and the circumstances of the match should make this match probably easier than a typical PGA tournament round.

 

So the actual difference between the players is 8-10 strokes. (Not 3 per side.)

 

So anyway, the pro should win about 90+% of the time.

 

Now, the fact is anything can happen in a one-off 18 hole match. For instance, the pro might be under the weather or seriously off his game. A one round match gives the Am a chance. He would need to be comfortable on a course of this length. And it would help considerably if he is the more erratic type who makes birdies and perhaps has a blow up hole or two. (If you have a bad hole, you only lose the hole in match play versus a stroke play comp where you could fall way behind on one hole.) The Am needs to make some birdies to win holes. Because he is going to lose holes to birdies and also when he makes a few bogies. A steady eddie type would have a very hard time unless the pro plays horrible.

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Something similar to this scenario actually came up a few weeks ago on the CBS Broadcast. McCord was saying he plays money games with Jon Rahm. He said Rahm gives him 6 strokes. Nantz tried to call him out on it, but McCord said Rahm plays to a +3, and he plays to a -3 and Rahm plays from the back, McCord from the forward tees. No mention as to who won these games.

 

With that said, I would think 9 out of 10 times Rahm beats him. So to the point of this post, I would think in a match play situation, the scratch golfer could win maybe 3 out of 10?

I've learned from this story that John Rahm is the biggest sandbagger in the history of golf.

 

Lol agreed

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Something similar to this scenario actually came up a few weeks ago on the CBS Broadcast. McCord was saying he plays money games with Jon Rahm. He said Rahm gives him 6 strokes. Nantz tried to call him out on it, but McCord said Rahm plays to a +3, and he plays to a -3 and Rahm plays from the back, McCord from the forward tees. No mention as to who won these games.

 

With that said, I would think 9 out of 10 times Rahm beats him. So to the point of this post, I would think in a match play situation, the scratch golfer could win maybe 3 out of 10?

I've learned from this story that John Rahm is the biggest sandbagger in the history of golf.

I belly laughed over this response. I thought +3 seemed too low, which is difficult to fathom.

 

And not to make this a Tiger thread,but since we are on the topic, he played to a +10 in 2000. That's insane

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If I got 3 a side on a 7200yd course I'd take on Pga tour player with the expectation that I'd win if I played well. Not saying I would gamble my house on it but I would put some cash up. If I shoot say -2 they would have to shoot 63 to beat me. That's not easy regardless of who you are.

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The 0.6 Am would have a CH = 1. His scoring average on a 75.7 course would be around 78-79. Q: does he normally play courses of this difficulty? If he does, that would help. (My personal belief is the handicap system works well as a player moves up in yardage, but it does not work so well as one moves back, especially if one moves way back from his typical tee choice distance.)

 

The top 20 pro should have a scoring average around 69 at the highest (on tour set-ups). Because handicaps use only the best differentials, which should average around 67-68 on this course, he would likely have a CH around +8 on this course. This course and the circumstances of the match should make this match probably easier than a typical PGA tournament round.

 

So the actual difference between the players is 8-10 strokes. (Not 3 per side.)

 

So anyway, the pro should win about 90+% of the time.

 

Now, the fact is anything can happen in a one-off 18 hole match. For instance, the pro might be under the weather or seriously off his game. A one round match gives the Am a chance. He would need to be comfortable on a course of this length. And it would help considerably if he is the more erratic type who makes birdies and perhaps has a blow up hole or two. (If you have a bad hole, you only lose the hole in match play versus a stroke play comp where you could fall way behind on one hole.) The Am needs to make some birdies to win holes. Because he is going to lose holes to birdies and also when he makes a few bogies. A steady eddie type would have a very hard time unless the pro plays horrible.

Bottom line, your handicap is your POTENTIAL.

 

According to Dean Knuth, the creater of the slope/Rating system, the avg player plays to his/her handicap only about 25% of the time.

 

So if you're a legit scratch, based on that theory, pro should win easily 9 put of 10 times.

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The 0.6 Am would have a CH = 1. His scoring average on a 75.7 course would be around 78-79. Q: does he normally play courses of this difficulty? If he does, that would help. (My personal belief is the handicap system works well as a player moves up in yardage, but it does not work so well as one moves back, especially if one moves way back from his typical tee choice distance.)

 

The top 20 pro should have a scoring average around 69 at the highest (on tour set-ups). Because handicaps use only the best differentials, which should average around 67-68 on this course, he would likely have a CH around +8 on this course. This course and the circumstances of the match should make this match probably easier than a typical PGA tournament round.

 

So the actual difference between the players is 8-10 strokes. (Not 3 per side.)

 

So anyway, the pro should win about 90+% of the time.

 

Now, the fact is anything can happen in a one-off 18 hole match. For instance, the pro might be under the weather or seriously off his game. A one round match gives the Am a chance. He would need to be comfortable on a course of this length. And it would help considerably if he is the more erratic type who makes birdies and perhaps has a blow up hole or two. (If you have a bad hole, you only lose the hole in match play versus a stroke play comp where you could fall way behind on one hole.) The Am needs to make some birdies to win holes. Because he is going to lose holes to birdies and also when he makes a few bogies. A steady eddie type would have a very hard time unless the pro plays horrible.

 

I agree with your calculations but you're calculating for stroke play and in stroke play the pro wins 95% of the time only giving up 6.

 

This is match play.

 

The pro is going to have 2-4 holes that he beats the am by 2 shots or more.

 

So if you add those to the 6 he is getting their scores will be 8-10 strokes apart but the match will be a coin flip.

 

I'm going to give Obee the win on this question.

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The 0.6 Am would have a CH = 1. His scoring average on a 75.7 course would be around 78-79. Q: does he normally play courses of this difficulty? If he does, that would help. (My personal belief is the handicap system works well as a player moves up in yardage, but it does not work so well as one moves back, especially if one moves way back from his typical tee choice distance.)

 

The top 20 pro should have a scoring average around 69 at the highest (on tour set-ups). Because handicaps use only the best differentials, which should average around 67-68 on this course, he would likely have a CH around +8 on this course. This course and the circumstances of the match should make this match probably easier than a typical PGA tournament round.

 

So the actual difference between the players is 8-10 strokes. (Not 3 per side.)

 

So anyway, the pro should win about 90+% of the time.

 

Now, the fact is anything can happen in a one-off 18 hole match. For instance, the pro might be under the weather or seriously off his game. A one round match gives the Am a chance. He would need to be comfortable on a course of this length. And it would help considerably if he is the more erratic type who makes birdies and perhaps has a blow up hole or two. (If you have a bad hole, you only lose the hole in match play versus a stroke play comp where you could fall way behind on one hole.) The Am needs to make some birdies to win holes. Because he is going to lose holes to birdies and also when he makes a few bogies. A steady eddie type would have a very hard time unless the pro plays horrible.

 

I agree with your calculations but you're calculating for stroke play and in stroke play the pro wins 95% of the time only giving up 6.

 

This is match play.

 

The pro is going to have 2-4 holes that he beats the am by 2 shots or more.

 

So if you add those to the 6 he is getting their scores will be 8-10 strokes apart but the match will be a coin flip.

 

I'm going to give Obee the win on this question.

 

I'm good with that. There is too much we don't know regarding the Am. (We know what a top 20 pro is like.)

 

For instance - 2 extremes:

 

The Am could be 32 years old, former college player, hits it 290+, but now plays 5 times per month because he is married with 2 kids and working 45+ hours per week.

 

Or he could 60 years old, played to a +1.5 15 years ago, now plays courses around 6400 yards, and carries the tee ball 240.

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The 0.6 Am would have a CH = 1. His scoring average on a 75.7 course would be around 78-79. Q: does he normally play courses of this difficulty? If he does, that would help. (My personal belief is the handicap system works well as a player moves up in yardage, but it does not work so well as one moves back, especially if one moves way back from his typical tee choice distance.)

 

The top 20 pro should have a scoring average around 69 at the highest (on tour set-ups). Because handicaps use only the best differentials, which should average around 67-68 on this course, he would likely have a CH around +8 on this course. This course and the circumstances of the match should make this match probably easier than a typical PGA tournament round.

 

So the actual difference between the players is 8-10 strokes. (Not 3 per side.)

 

So anyway, the pro should win about 90+% of the time.

 

Now, the fact is anything can happen in a one-off 18 hole match. For instance, the pro might be under the weather or seriously off his game. A one round match gives the Am a chance. He would need to be comfortable on a course of this length. And it would help considerably if he is the more erratic type who makes birdies and perhaps has a blow up hole or two. (If you have a bad hole, you only lose the hole in match play versus a stroke play comp where you could fall way behind on one hole.) The Am needs to make some birdies to win holes. Because he is going to lose holes to birdies and also when he makes a few bogies. A steady eddie type would have a very hard time unless the pro plays horrible.

 

I agree with your calculations but you're calculating for stroke play and in stroke play the pro wins 95% of the time only giving up 6.

 

This is match play.

 

The pro is going to have 2-4 holes that he beats the am by 2 shots or more.

 

So if you add those to the 6 he is getting their scores will be 8-10 strokes apart but the match will be a coin flip.

 

I'm going to give Obee the win on this question.

 

I'm good with that. There is too much we don't know regarding the Am. (We know what a top 20 pro is like.)

 

For instance - 2 extremes:

 

The Am could be 32 years old, former college player, hits it 290+, but now plays 5 times per month because he is married with 2 kids and working 45+ hours per week.

 

Or he could 60 years old, played to a +1.5 15 years ago, now plays courses around 6400 yards, and carries the tee ball 240.

 

Pretty sure the am is Obee!

 

Oops, maybe not, he's showing 0.1.

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Considering this is a match play, not stroke play. If the scratch player can hit his drives long enough(270-290), it should be a very close match with 3 holes per side. A shorter hitter might have harder time.

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Course is 7,200 yards 75.7 146 slope. Scratch player is currently a 0.6 with an LI of +1.5.

 

Tour player is inside the top 20 in the world. What will the outcome be?

 

Match play. Scratch guy gets 3 a side.

 

What does 3 a side mean in match play... on the 3 toughest holes for each 9, the scratch gets an extra stroke?

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Can we not get a week, without a thread about the Scratch player who thinks he's hot stuff and the proverbial PGA Tour player who's going to clean his clock, 90% of the time?

 

 

It's been re-hashed over and over and over again.

 

Virtually every PGA Tour Player has the potential to shoot 59-64 on the toughest courses in the world, every time he tees it up.

 

The typical Scratch Player's POTENTIAL is that he can shoot the Course Rating on a given day.

 

That's more than 1/2 stroke/hole guys.

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