Official DraftKings or other golf betting sites

Wondering if there are others out there that regularly bet on golf. I just started w using DraftKings and won a few, lost a few but thought I would start a thread for others so inclinded and maybe share some tips and tricks.

Anyone else out there making golf bets?

When you say "won a few" do you mean a few dollars or you won a few tournaments? DFS golf is THE hardest DFS sport to play. In order to win, you need to pick the winner, 3 players in the top 5, 5 players in the top 10, and all 6 probably in the top 15. If one player misses the cut, your entire lineup is screwed.

I spent 2 years writing data mining and analysis tools for fantasy golf. I can tell you it is a complete and total crap shoot.

In a 144 person field there are over 10 BILLION lineup combinations. Now granted, salary cap reduces that number, but there are still 100's of millions of lineup combinations.

Now assuming the cost is $5 per lineup and you find an investor to play 100 lineups, you have to reduce 100's of millions to 100.

My algorithms were very complex, and my data sets very large. After 2 years and thousands of $, I just gave up.

You are better taking $500 and playing craps.

Now my DFS golf consists of one $5 entry a week. I consider it the same as playing the lotto.

When you say "won a few" do you mean a few dollars or you won a few tournaments? DFS golf is THE hardest DFS sport to play. In order to win, you need to pick the winner, 3 players in the top 5, 5 players in the top 10, and all 6 probably in the top 15. If one player misses the cut, your entire lineup is screwed.

 

I spent 2 years writing data mining and analysis tools for fantasy golf. I can tell you it is a complete and total crap shoot.

 

In a 144 person field there are over 10 BILLION lineup combinations. Now granted, salary cap reduces that number, but there are still 100's of millions of lineup combinations.

 

Now assuming the cost is $5 per lineup and you find an investor to play 100 lineups, you have to reduce 100's of millions to 100.

 

My algorithms were very complex, and my data sets very large. After 2 years and thousands of $, I just gave up.

 

You are better taking $500 and playing craps.

 

Now my DFS golf consists of one $5 entry a week. I consider it the same as playing the lotto.

Great input and exactly the type I’ve input I’m looking for. I would also concur that trying to pick a single golfer out at the start of a tournament is indeed a complete crapshoot and something I’ve never done. I’m also aware that most betting is seriously stacked in favor of the house, but still fun.

What I do is more along the lines of Tournament Props. So for example, this weekend one of the bets was that there would be no hole in ones for WGC-Mexico and with a decent payout. I’ve done some DD around how often pros make a hole in one in tournament play, factored in number of par 3’s (although some par 4’s at WGC also qualify) and then against numbers of players in the field and decided it was a decent bet.

The other thing I’ve started to do is to pick a winner when it comes down to the last 4-5 holes. Did that with Ricky Fowler a couple weeks ago when he started to slip a bit and odds started changing and picked him to win. Decent payout.

Again, I’m just starting to understand the whole golf betting world and spending just enough to keep it fun and share some data with friends?

I wish DK scored only the best 5 of your 6 picks. Having one guy miss the cut is so frustrating (and common) that I think DK could generate more interest with this added leniency.

I also wrote a bunch of algorithms to little avail. Had Aphibarnrat beaten Watson in the match play event last year I probably would have won $100,000. Instead I got 70 bucks.

I wish DK scored only the best 5 of your 6 picks. Having one guy miss the cut is so frustrating (and common) that I think DK could generate more interest with this added leniency.

 

I also wrote a bunch of algorithms to little avail. Had Aphibarnrat beaten Watson in the match play event last year I probably would have won $100,000. Instead I got 70 bucks.

Couldn’t agree with you more!

Here's our golf gambling thread

http://www.golfwrx.com/forums/topic/1273814-degenerate-golf-gamblers-anonymous/page__fromsearch__1

I had an ROI of 5-10% each of the first 2 years i played dfs golf, 2015 & 2016. Now that it is much more mainstream, I barely stay above water as there are many more sharks in the water, and the value plays are always overowned due to the number of internet touts and easily available information. Of course there is a large percentage of guessing, but thats the case with all sports gambling. I dont find it as much of a crapshoot as the casino, or vegas style betting.

My biggest complaint, and the biggest reason why my ROI has plummeted is the payout structure of the big tournaments. It used to be that when you cashed, you were guaranteed to double up. Now the structure is so top heavy, a $4 ticket that barely cashes is only a $6 winner now where it used to be $8. This just caters to max entry players who hit top end finishes more often. Its the only way to stay afloat now.

All good points. I mainly do it for fun, same concept as when I go to the casino. I've had a few big cashes, but I always start betting more afterwards and eventually lose it lol.

The only place I consistently win money is FD and DK NFL because I'm patient and methodical about it.

Has anyone played on MyPrizePicks or Monkey Knife Fight?

Any DK plays this week?