Is golf in the USA dying?

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  • raynorfan1raynorfan1 Members Posts: 3,520 ✭✭
    edited Mar 2, 2019 11:45am #32
    Just to re-emphasize the "weather" argument - I play almost every day from April to November. I happily play in the rain. My 2018 rounds were down 20% from 2017.



    The rain (and its impact on the course) just made it unplayable, even for people who are pretty dedicated to the game. I'm fine with getting wet, but there were periods in September / October / November when it was just rain every day for two weeks.
    Post edited by Unknown User on
  • @_the_crook@_the_crook Members Posts: 609 ✭✭
    in 2018, our area, Chicagoland was impacted by weather.

    late start due to a bad winter, which is going to be mirrored this year.

    it was also a really wet season, which I'd bet will also be the same this year.

    they did over sixty thousand rounds on the nine and eighteen hole layouts.



    still, our facility is planning a twelve million dollar renovation including full clubhouse rebuild in 2020.

    adjusting, yes, dying, no.
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  • Roadking2003Roadking2003 AustinMembers Posts: 5,089 ✭✭
    ChipNRun wrote:


    National trends: One factor is charting impact of indoor, simulator golf. Once simulator was a cottage industry in our area, with winter leagues when snow was on ground. Now, sim traffic heavy most of the year. And, enter TopGolf in Chesterfield/West County, and sim golf is growing bigger. TopGolf = golf + night club.



    Also, look at growth in 6-hole golf courses, many of them build entirely with synthetic turf. Need a huge vacuum cleaner rather than lawn mower. With shorter Millennial attention spans, 6 holes is all some people want. (No offense meant to Millennials, it's what demographics tell us.) Also, six holes a week between occasional 18-hole rounds better than only 18 holes a month for busy people.




    I would call those two trends "the death of golf".
  • Roadking2003Roadking2003 AustinMembers Posts: 5,089 ✭✭
    Looking at the numbers on this website, I would conclude that the decline has been happening for 15 - 25 years. And that's not due to weather.
    • Total number of golfers (2011): 25.7 million (down from a high of 30.6 million in 2003)
    • Number of “core” golfers (those who play 8 – 24 rounds per year): 14.4 million (down from a high of 19.7 million in 1998 and 2000)


    https://golf-info-gu...d-golf-courses/
  • raynorfan1raynorfan1 Members Posts: 3,520 ✭✭


    Looking at the numbers on this website, I would conclude that the decline has been happening for 15 - 25 years. And that's not due to weather.
    • Total number of golfers (2011): 25.7 million (down from a high of 30.6 million in 2003)
    • Number of “core” golfers (those who play 8 – 24 rounds per year): 14.4 million (down from a high of 19.7 million in 1998 and 2000)


    https://golf-info-gu...d-golf-courses/






    Lies, **** lies, and statistics.



    This presentation gives a more balanced picture:



    http://sportsandleisureresearch.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/PGA-SIGG-Omnibus-2017_Adobe.pdf
  • Roadking2003Roadking2003 AustinMembers Posts: 5,089 ✭✭
    raynorfan1 wrote:



    Looking at the numbers on this website, I would conclude that the decline has been happening for 15 - 25 years. And that's not due to weather.
    • Total number of golfers (2011): 25.7 million (down from a high of 30.6 million in 2003)
    • Number of “core” golfers (those who play 8 – 24 rounds per year): 14.4 million (down from a high of 19.7 million in 1998 and 2000)


    https://golf-info-gu...d-golf-courses/






    Lies, **** lies, and statistics.



    This presentation gives a more balanced picture:



    http://sportsandleis...-2017_Adobe.pdf






    "Balanced"? It's mostly opinions and attitudes. And lots of useless info like "anticipated spending".



    But it does agree that the years since 2005 have shown a steady decline in golfer count from 30.5 to 24.1 million. And all of this ignores the fact that our population has increased by about 20% since 2000.



    I don't see any facts that contradict the site I posted.
  • raynorfan1raynorfan1 Members Posts: 3,520 ✭✭

    raynorfan1 wrote:



    Looking at the numbers on this website, I would conclude that the decline has been happening for 15 - 25 years. And that's not due to weather.
    • Total number of golfers (2011): 25.7 million (down from a high of 30.6 million in 2003)
    • Number of “core” golfers (those who play 8 – 24 rounds per year): 14.4 million (down from a high of 19.7 million in 1998 and 2000)


    https://golf-info-gu...d-golf-courses/






    Lies, **** lies, and statistics.



    This presentation gives a more balanced picture:



    http://sportsandleis...-2017_Adobe.pdf






    "Balanced"? It's mostly opinions and attitudes. And lots of useless info like "anticipated spending".



    But it does agree that the years since 2005 have shown a steady decline in golfer count from 30.5 to 24.1 million. And all of this ignores the fact that our population has increased by about 20% since 2000.



    I don't see any facts that contradict the site I posted.






    The facts are the same*. The context is different.



    One reasonable argument is that golf experienced a "fad" bubble in the early 2000's and has returned to its sustainable level.



    *one interesting detail in the "facts" is that the NGF changed its methodology in 2003 because they believed that golfers were overestimating the number of rounds they played. So some of the "decline" in the number of core golfers from the 2000 peak is related to this methodology change.
  • 2putttom2putttom # 1 Oregon Duck fan Members Posts: 9,775 ✭✭
    the number of people dying who play golf is growing, and no one is replacing them.
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  • Carl Spackler3Carl Spackler3 Members Posts: 911 ✭✭
    Tee sheets where I live are full most everyday
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  • sunbeltgolfersunbeltgolfer Members Posts: 474 ✭✭
    Our course had a small decline in rounds played last year and we also had the wettest season on record in a very long time. It certainly wasn't due to a drop in membership or enthusiasm as far as I can tell.
  • greggreg Members Posts: 82 ✭✭


    Looking at the numbers on this website, I would conclude that the decline has been happening for 15 - 25 years. And that's not due to weather.
    • Total number of golfers (2011): 25.7 million (down from a high of 30.6 million in 2003)
    • Number of “core” golfers (those who play 8 – 24 rounds per year): 14.4 million (down from a high of 19.7 million in 1998 and 2000)


    https://golf-info-gu...d-golf-courses/








    Yep. Too many other entertainment options, and golf is hard. ;-)
  • MountainGoatMountainGoat Mid-MarylandMembers Posts: 1,589 ✭✭
    Any number of business studies have been done on this this subject. Personal anecdotes from NJ, Florida and California aside, there can be little debate that the game is constricting. The biggest segment to be hit is the real estate segment. Having a house on a golf course used to be a desirable luxury. Now, you can hardly give them away. The business model for residential golf communities was never sound, and it's failing left and right.
  • Roadking2003Roadking2003 AustinMembers Posts: 5,089 ✭✭


    Any number of business studies have been done on this this subject. Personal anecdotes from NJ, Florida and California aside, there can be little debate that the game is constricting. The biggest segment to be hit is the real estate segment. Having a house on a golf course used to be a desirable luxury. Now, you can hardly give them away. The business model for residential golf communities was never sound, and it's failing left and right.




    I know this is anecdotal, but here in Austin, I don't see any problem with houses on golf courses. In fact, they are building multi-million dollar houses on golf courses here every year.
  • dpb5031dpb5031 Members Posts: 5,031 ✭✭



    Any number of business studies have been done on this this subject. Personal anecdotes from NJ, Florida and California aside, there can be little debate that the game is constricting. The biggest segment to be hit is the real estate segment. Having a house on a golf course used to be a desirable luxury. Now, you can hardly give them away. The business model for residential golf communities was never sound, and it's failing left and right.




    I know this is anecdotal, but here in Austin, I don't see any problem with houses on golf courses. In fact, they are building multi-million dollar houses on golf courses here every year.




    I'm sure residential golf developments will thrive in some markets, but I'm still concerned about the market as a whole. As boomers age-out, move on, downsize, and die off they create a vacuum in just about every market they've participated in and influenced so heavily over the past 40 years. Subsequent generations simply don't have the population to fill that void with the exception of the Millennial generation, and it doesn't seem (at least so far) that Millennials are very interested in the boomer lifestyle.
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  • bazinkybazinky Members Posts: 1,650 ✭✭
    nbg352 wrote:


    Seasonal Weather could be a factor in the ups and downs.......




    This was a huge factor at my club this year. Not only did we see a lot more rain last year, we had an inordinate number of rainy days on "prime" days (Friday, Saturday, or Sunday). Actually impacted the club financials (club did ok, but it had a noticeable impact on our bottom line). We actually had one club event this year that never got played because it got rained out four separate times (the initial event date and three rescheduling attempts!
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  • BarrySandersBarrySanders Members Posts: 57 ✭✭
    Tiger boom got more people playing and starting the game. Don't know if how that will transfer to 15 years in the future when he isn't a top 50 player
  • Swisstrader98Swisstrader98 Members Posts: 3,512 ✭✭
    edited Mar 9, 2019 9:29pm #48
    broth518 wrote:


    Nope, Nope and nope.... I think some areas are the country are less than others but saying is golf dying in USA is far fetched.



    Courses are packed in NJ and you can't even get tee times.




    Really? I belong to a golf club in NJ and even w a great layout, great membership, great clubhouse, great location, we are really struggling this year w new memberships. Same deal with all the other clubs in the area and we’ve had to drop initiation prices dramatically.



    Can’t get millennials to join and it’s the younger members that represent the future of the club and growth. It’s partly an affordability issue. Same for existing members who are switching to weekday only memberships to save money.



    I also have the view that millennials who are part of the Google/Twitter generation have no interest in stuffy rules. I thought the USGA was in touch with this and had the opportunity to make changes to simplify the rules but recent misdirection and mismanagement by the USGA will just drive more people away from the game. Other promise from USGA was new rules would speed play so for those saying golf takes too long, would address that concern. USGA screwed that one up as well.
  • Roadking2003Roadking2003 AustinMembers Posts: 5,089 ✭✭

    broth518 wrote:


    Nope, Nope and nope.... I think some areas are the country are less than others but saying is golf dying in USA is far fetched.



    Courses are packed in NJ and you can't even get tee times.




    Really? I belong to a golf club in NJ and even w a great layout, great membership, great clubhouse, great location, we are really struggling this year w new memberships. Same deal with all the other clubs in the area and we've had to drop initiation prices dramatically.



    Can't get millennials to join and it's the younger members that represent the future of the club and growth. It's partly an affordability issue. Same for existing members who are switching to weekday only memberships to save money.



    I also have the view that millennials who are part of the Google/Twitter generation have no interest in stuffy rules. I thought the USGA was in touch with this and had the opportunity to make changes to simplify the rules but recent misdirection and mismanagement by the USGA will just drive more people away from the game. Other promise from USGA was new rules would speed play so for those saying golf takes too long, would address that concern. USGA screwed that one up as well.




    I seriously doubt that the new USGA rules have stopped anybody from playing golf or joining a club.
  • MountainGoatMountainGoat Mid-MarylandMembers Posts: 1,589 ✭✭
    dpb5031 wrote:




    Any number of business studies have been done on this this subject. Personal anecdotes from NJ, Florida and California aside, there can be little debate that the game is constricting. The biggest segment to be hit is the real estate segment. Having a house on a golf course used to be a desirable luxury. Now, you can hardly give them away. The business model for residential golf communities was never sound, and it's failing left and right.




    I know this is anecdotal, but here in Austin, I don't see any problem with houses on golf courses. In fact, they are building multi-million dollar houses on golf courses here every year.




    I'm sure residential golf developments will thrive in some markets, but I'm still concerned about the market as a whole. As boomers age-out, move on, downsize, and die off they create a vacuum in just about every market they've participated in and influenced so heavily over the past 40 years. Subsequent generations simply don't have the population to fill that void with the exception of the Millennial generation, and it doesn't seem (at least so far) that Millennials are very interested in the boomer lifestyle.




    The business model for residential courses generally assumes that everyone who lives in the neighborhood will want to join the course. Turns out they don't. The course loses revenue from a lack of membership, can't support itself and eventually closes. The surrounding real estate suffers as a result. What was missing in the original model was building the cost of course maintenance into the real estate tax. But, if they did that, no one would buy the houses. So, the developers run the course at a loss until the houses are sold. After that, everything goes to pieces. It's not a sustainable model.
  • MtlJeffMtlJeff MontrealMembers Posts: 28,209 ✭✭


    Tiger boom got more people playing and starting the game. Don't know if how that will transfer to 15 years in the future when he isn't a top 50 player




    It isn't transferring now to be honest



    Tiger theoretically added about 10M golfers to the total between 1997 and like 2005. But we have already lost that number and are back to pre-Tiger levels



    The above numbers are approximate i verified them a couple of years ago but am too lazy now.



    Currently i don't think Tiger has any effect on people playing golf. Watching golf definitely
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  • EvolvedEvolved Members Posts: 736 ✭✭
    I work in the northeast. Yes we had a record amount of rain fall and yes rounds played were down. However they were equally down in '16 and '17 so you can't really say it was just the weather.
  • Higgs66Higgs66 Members Posts: 43 ✭✭
    Ahhh the empty fairways and discounted fees, just as retirement looms
  • Swisstrader98Swisstrader98 Members Posts: 3,512 ✭✭


    broth518 wrote:


    Nope, Nope and nope.... I think some areas are the country are less than others but saying is golf dying in USA is far fetched.



    Courses are packed in NJ and you can't even get tee times.




    Really? I belong to a golf club in NJ and even w a great layout, great membership, great clubhouse, great location, we are really struggling this year w new memberships. Same deal with all the other clubs in the area and we've had to drop initiation prices dramatically.



    Can't get millennials to join and it's the younger members that represent the future of the club and growth. It's partly an affordability issue. Same for existing members who are switching to weekday only memberships to save money.



    I also have the view that millennials who are part of the Google/Twitter generation have no interest in stuffy rules. I thought the USGA was in touch with this and had the opportunity to make changes to simplify the rules but recent misdirection and mismanagement by the USGA will just drive more people away from the game. Other promise from USGA was new rules would speed play so for those saying golf takes too long, would address that concern. USGA screwed that one up as well.




    I seriously doubt that the new USGA rules have stopped anybody from playing golf or joining a club.




    It’s just the entire aura of golf. Millennials view the game as stuffy and high brow and expensive. Doesn’t help to have an arcane set of rules that the USGA promised to simplify and instead created more bad press for themselves and just more bad PR for the game.



    Why did golf have a big uptick when Tiger was in his prime? Because Tiger was cool. Tiger made golf cool. The rules and the way the rules are officiated are the polar opposite of cool.



    Make sense?
  • St JimmySt Jimmy Members Posts: 397 ✭✭
    Higgs66 wrote:


    Ahhh the empty fairways and discounted fees, just as retirement looms




    I've got twenty more years...

    Just imagine how wide open the courses will be by then!
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  • Roadking2003Roadking2003 AustinMembers Posts: 5,089 ✭✭

    dpb5031 wrote:




    Any number of business studies have been done on this this subject. Personal anecdotes from NJ, Florida and California aside, there can be little debate that the game is constricting. The biggest segment to be hit is the real estate segment. Having a house on a golf course used to be a desirable luxury. Now, you can hardly give them away. The business model for residential golf communities was never sound, and it's failing left and right.




    I know this is anecdotal, but here in Austin, I don't see any problem with houses on golf courses. In fact, they are building multi-million dollar houses on golf courses here every year.




    I'm sure residential golf developments will thrive in some markets, but I'm still concerned about the market as a whole. As boomers age-out, move on, downsize, and die off they create a vacuum in just about every market they've participated in and influenced so heavily over the past 40 years. Subsequent generations simply don't have the population to fill that void with the exception of the Millennial generation, and it doesn't seem (at least so far) that Millennials are very interested in the boomer lifestyle.




    The business model for residential courses generally assumes that everyone who lives in the neighborhood will want to join the course. Turns out they don't. The course loses revenue from a lack of membership, can't support itself and eventually closes. The surrounding real estate suffers as a result. What was missing in the original model was building the cost of course maintenance into the real estate tax. But, if they did that, no one would buy the houses. So, the developers run the course at a loss until the houses are sold. After that, everything goes to pieces. It's not a sustainable model.




    I've never seen that business model and it certainly isn't that way in this area. Building huge houses around a golf course is a booming business here.
  • MtlJeffMtlJeff MontrealMembers Posts: 28,209 ✭✭
    So much gets made of why millenials don't play golf. Does anyone have any real data as to what the percentage of players in Nicklaus's day were people between say, 25 and 39?



    I doubt this was ever the major group of golf's demographics. These are the people who typically earn the least (and aren't getting help from their parents anymore for hobbies) and golf has always been an expensive hobby compared to other alternatives



    My guess is golf has always been mostly juniors (parents pay memberships) and then older professionals with good incomes.



    Horseback riding is the same thing. You don't see many 31yr old horseback riders unless they are pros. You see plenty of <20 yr olds whose parents pay for them, or wealthy older folks
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  • uitar9uitar9 Members Posts: 370 ✭✭
    Re the rules:



    When I see more and more young people on the course , they are partying...music...booze...and weed. Those golfers pay the bills. They may not fit the "Golf mould" but you want more golfers, you gotta take all the paying customers. The millennial will create a new golf etiquette like offering a toke to the old boomer walking along besides their cart.



    They hit the ball, go find it, and hit it again. Rules? They aren't playing tournament golf.



    Re the Boomer Lifestyle-You mean folks don't like ****, drugs and Rock N Roll? and Golf?



    Your born, you get some kind of education, you pair up, you have kids, live in some kind of shelter. The kids get educated, yada yada yada. Money goes to those things. The size of the pig in the python drives the economy.



    Golf, like every other industry is feeling the effects of the boomers passing, The millennials maturing (thats an age group between 18 and 35 or so) and the on-line experience. An on line group like this is full of hard core golfers. Most golfers I know do not frequent a golf forum. I'm not sure we represent the golf public.
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  • raynorfan1raynorfan1 Members Posts: 3,520 ✭✭


    dpb5031 wrote:




    Any number of business studies have been done on this this subject. Personal anecdotes from NJ, Florida and California aside, there can be little debate that the game is constricting. The biggest segment to be hit is the real estate segment. Having a house on a golf course used to be a desirable luxury. Now, you can hardly give them away. The business model for residential golf communities was never sound, and it's failing left and right.




    I know this is anecdotal, but here in Austin, I don't see any problem with houses on golf courses. In fact, they are building multi-million dollar houses on golf courses here every year.




    I'm sure residential golf developments will thrive in some markets, but I'm still concerned about the market as a whole. As boomers age-out, move on, downsize, and die off they create a vacuum in just about every market they've participated in and influenced so heavily over the past 40 years. Subsequent generations simply don't have the population to fill that void with the exception of the Millennial generation, and it doesn't seem (at least so far) that Millennials are very interested in the boomer lifestyle.




    The business model for residential courses generally assumes that everyone who lives in the neighborhood will want to join the course. Turns out they don't. The course loses revenue from a lack of membership, can't support itself and eventually closes. The surrounding real estate suffers as a result. What was missing in the original model was building the cost of course maintenance into the real estate tax. But, if they did that, no one would buy the houses. So, the developers run the course at a loss until the houses are sold. After that, everything goes to pieces. It's not a sustainable model.




    I've never seen that business model and it certainly isn't that way in this area. Building huge houses around a golf course is a booming business here.




    Building them has always been the booming part of the business...maintaining the course long after is the problem.



    The fundamental issue is that more people like to have a view of a golf course than actually like to play golf. So you get a lot of the residents of these big houses not paying dues to maintain the course (and their "view"). It's a real market failure.
  • Roadking2003Roadking2003 AustinMembers Posts: 5,089 ✭✭
    raynorfan1 wrote:


    Building them has always been the booming part of the business...maintaining the course long after is the problem.



    The fundamental issue is that more people like to have a view of a golf course than actually like to play golf. So you get a lot of the residents of these big houses not paying dues to maintain the course (and their "view"). It's a real market failure.




    I'm not sure you are right. I'm also not sure you are wrong. I would like to see some facts on this topic.



    This is anecdotal, but my club is doing just fine and most of the members do not live on our golf courses.
  • RoodyRoody You ride her until she bucks you or don't ride at all Members Posts: 1,052 ✭✭
    Golf is not dying, it's adjusting.



    The private club my wife and I just joined back in August has brought on over 100 new members since then. Yes, mostly because of the new membership deal they were offering, and changing the pricing model to a model where all the extra niggling fees (for club storage, locker, range, etc) are included in the overall price.



    But they could have chosen to do nothing. Instead, they're getting with the times and now the club is thriving again. The place is busy just about every time I go over for dinner, or a men's night, or some random event. That's money being spent in the club.



    It's not the same as it used to be 20-30 years ago. Companies are not paying for fancy club memberships for their sales employees like they used to. Both the man and the wife are working full time nowadays, but maybe back then only one person was working per family. So there's not as much time. But the fact of the matter is, if someone really wants to play golf or any other hobby for that matter, they will find a way to make the time.
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