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3 years later for Lydia Ko...


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Curious what people think about whether she gets back to the top.

 

In 2012, Ko shocks the LPGA by winning the Canadian Open as a 15-year old Amateur. She then wins again in 2013. Soon enough, she's allowed entrance onto the Tour despite her age.

 

**2014:** 3 wins, 2 top-10's in majors & ROTY honors

**2015:** 5 wins (1 major @ Evian & T3 at British Open, #1 OWGR in Feb)

**2016:** 4 wins (1 major @ ANA Inspiration, T3 @ US Open, 2nd place @ PGA Championship)

 

During this period Lydia won 12 times, nabbed 2 majors and was a consistent contender. She set numerous records for youngest to do this, that and the other. She was even the youngest to 10 wins at something ridiculous, like 18 years old. Then things cooled off big-time. She closed out 2016 by finishing T43 and T40 in the remaining majors. Before year's end she booted Leadbetter and signed on with PXG.

 

Then it looks like this:

 

**2017:** 0 wins (Major finishes: 11, 33, 59, 3, 59)

 

Lydia gives up #1 OWGR to Ariya and finishes the year ranked 9th

 

**2018:** 1 win (Major finishes: 20, 49, 31, 10, 11)

 

Lydia drops to #14 in the world

 

**2019:** 0 wins (Major finishes: 44, 39, 10)

 

She currently sits at #18 in the rankings. Her average finish in majors has dropped to 29th since the 2016 PGA. Her two Top-10s have both come at the Evian which seems to be her saving grace.

 

Her scoring average has worsened but it's not bad. And she's still nabbing her share of top-10 finishes. But it sure doesn't look like she's anything close to the dominant figure she was. It's not a Yani Tseng drop-off. We still see her on leaderboards but she's no longer anything close to an elite player.

 

It doesn't seem like it's been that long, but as I just laid out...it's essentially been 3 years of steady decline to this point.

 

Generally when someone's good enough to land a lucrative endorsement it's a sign that they're in peak form. And when people get fit and ditch David Leadbetter it's usually an even better thing. But none of that has seemed to have helped Lydia, LOL.

 

How long before we start talking about this as a serious problem? It almost seems to have fallen through the cracks given all the other headlines we've gotten over the last few years: the collapse of Ariya, the rise of Ariya, the ANA Lexi Thompson fiasco (along with several wins), 6 Brooke Henderson wins, the arrival of Sung Hyun Park, the wave of South Koreans, several new #1's, etc.

 

I keep thinking Lydia is going to make it back but maybe not? Maybe those days are just gone?

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I think the glory days are past. The competition has gotten better, and longer. In 2015 she ranked 60th in driving distance with an average of 250. She's currently ranked 130th with an average of 250 yds.

 

A short hitter can be successful if they're straight. Short and crooked? Not so much. Lydia's accuracy is under 70%, putting her in the bottom half of the tour. She's been there for a year and a half. In 2015 she was in the top 1/3rd. She still has one of the best short games on tour, but she's often scrambling to save par. She's hitting less than 70% of her greens, putting her 59th on tour. In 2015 she was 2nd in GIR at 77%. Add it all together and she's 151st in ballstriking. No amount of short game wizardry is going to overcome that. Jin Young is not the longest (260), but she's accurate off the tee (79.6%), and therefore hits a ton of greens (78.6%).

 

I think there are a number of courses where Lydia can do well, but overall it's going to be a tough rode ahead.

 

 

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> @Argonne69 said:

> I think the glory days are past. The competition has gotten better, and longer. In 2015 she ranked 60th in driving distance with an average of 250. She's currently ranked 130th with an average of 250 yds.

>

> A short hitter can be successful if they're straight. Short and crooked? Not so much. Lydia's accuracy is under 70%, putting her in the bottom half of the tour. She's been there for a year and a half. In 2015 she was in the top 1/3rd. She still has one of the best short games on tour, but she's often scrambling to save par. She's hitting less than 70% of her greens, putting her 59th on tour. In 2015 she was 2nd in GIR at 77%. Add it all together and she's 151st in ballstriking. No amount of short game wizardry is going to overcome that. Jin Young is not the longest (260), but she's accurate off the tee (79.6%), and therefore hits a ton of greens (78.6%).

>

> I think there are a number of courses where Lydia can do well, but overall it's going to be a tough rode ahead.

>

>

 

Yep, she is looking like Luke Donald. Luke had some stellar years and reached number one in the world. But the young guns really exploded after that. Distance became such a weapon that being 140th in driving distance and not maxing out fairways hit just made things so much harder, even a slightly questionable lie is so much more impactful for the short hitters. Then the quest for more distance sent them both down a path that derailed them for a bit, even Speith is having issues after chasing distance. Im sure she will win again, and I wouldnt be surprised to see her get another major but its going to have be a week where everything is honed and sharp, likely a Zack Jonshon win at The Masters type week.

 

I dont see the LPGA getting to quite the same game type/style as the PGA as the rough is harder for the ladies to deal with, so shorter hitters will have a better chance against bombers. So it will give the LPGA the option to keep things competitive. Ive heard from some camps for some highly respected coaches I play with and some friends help run, that distance is being taught first and then kids are learning to control it.

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It's the LPGA...length is really only a factor in a couple of events.

 

Lydia is 22, has 15 wins, 2 majors, $10,000,000.00 in on course earnings, another few mil in off course earnings and she's made a lot of changes in her game from an instruction standpoint, equipment, support staff and her body. You have to look at her win total since moving to PXG...a grand total of 1 win. She also was chasing distance and tried to move to a draw from a fade and that doesn't appear to have helped either. It's way, way too early to write her off. The natural talent is there, she just need to get away from her parents (sound familiar), find 1 instructor she connects with and play the equipment that best suits her game.

 

If you look at her 2019 stats vs 2016 stats they're almost identical.

Driving distance - 2019 - 250 - 2016 - 246

Driving accuracy - 2019 - 69% - 2016 - 71%

GIR - 2019 - 69% - 2016 - 70%

Putts/GIR - 2019 - 1.7 - 2016 1.7

 

Here's the number that sticks out - scoring average - 2019 70.74 - 2016 - 69.6. She's giving the field 4.5 shots per 4 round event as compared to 2016 and I'd suggest it's proximity to the hole, which is iron play which goes back to the equipment.

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The competition is not standing still, though. Her GIR stat in 2016 was good for 31st. Today she's 59th. Her driving accuracy in 2016 was good for 68th. Today she's #95.

 

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> @Argonne69 said:

> The competition is not standing still, though. Her GIR stat in 2016 was good for 31st. Today she's 59th. Her driving accuracy in 2016 was good for 68th. Today she's #95.

>

 

Agree with the increased volume of competition and the improvement of the competition as well. But that 4.5 shots per event differential with the same stats has to be coming from somewhere. The lowest scoring average in 2019 compared to 2016 is only 0.2/round or 1 shot per event better when she's gone the other direction by 5 shots. Again, I think it's her prox which is why it's sad that stat isn't available.

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> @DavePelz4 said:

> > @Argonne69 said:

> > The competition is not standing still, though. Her GIR stat in 2016 was good for 31st. Today she's 59th. Her driving accuracy in 2016 was good for 68th. Today she's #95.

> >

>

> Agree with the increased volume of competition and the improvement of the competition as well. But that 4.5 shots per event differential with the same stats has to be coming from somewhere. The lowest scoring average in 2019 compared to 2016 is only 0.2/round or 1 shot per event better when she's gone the other direction by 5 shots. Again, I think it's her prox which is why it's sad that stat isn't available.

But how many players are now averaging under 70? I think it is the depth of field also.

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> @"oz dee cee" said:

> It ain’t the equipment, it’s Lydia.

 

I agree. I think she's once again been spending way too much time working on her full swing, and neglecting her short game, primarily her wedges. I agree with DaveP that her proximity to the hole is the likely culprit. Her Putts per GIR has gone up to 1.784 from 1.711. That's an average of 1.31 strokes per round.

Ping G425 Max Driver 12 (0 Flat) - Aldila Ascent Red 50 Stiff (46")
TaylorMade AeroBurner Mini Driver 16 - Matrix Speed RUL-Z 60 Stiff
Ping G410 7wd 20.5 (0 Flat) - Alta CB 65 Stiff (43")
Ping G410 9wd 23.5 (0 Flat) - Alta CB 65 Stiff (42.5")
Ping G425 6h 30 (0 Flat) - Alta CB 70 Stiff
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Ping i200 6-P Orange Dot (2 Deg Weak, 2 Deg Flat) - True Temper XP 95 S
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> @Argonne69 said:

> > @"oz dee cee" said:

> > It ain’t the equipment, it’s Lydia.

>

> I agree. I think she's once again been spending way too much time working on her full swing, and neglecting her short game, primarily her wedges. I agree with DaveP that her proximity to the hole is the likely culprit. Her Putts per GIR has gone up to 1.784 from 1.711. That's an average of 1.31 strokes per round.

 

She hits 12.39 greens per round for an average of 68.84% GIR.

Her scoring average is worse by 0.905; derived by the difference of putts per GIR multiplied by 12.39.

Her scrambles from missing greens shouldn't be affected by her proximity to the hole.

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> @DavePelz4 said:

> It's the LPGA...length is really only a factor in a couple of events.

>

> Lydia is 22, has 15 wins, 2 majors, $10,000,000.00 in on course earnings, another few mil in off course earnings and she's made a lot of changes in her game from an instruction standpoint, equipment, support staff and her body. You have to look at her win total since moving to PXG...a grand total of 1 win. She also was chasing distance and tried to move to a draw from a fade and that doesn't appear to have helped either. It's way, way too early to write her off. The natural talent is there, she just need to get away from her parents (sound familiar), find 1 instructor she connects with and play the equipment that best suits her game.

>

> If you look at her 2019 stats vs 2016 stats they're almost identical.

> Driving distance - 2019 - 250 - 2016 - 246

> Driving accuracy - 2019 - 69% - 2016 - 71%

> GIR - 2019 - 69% - 2016 - 70%

> Putts/GIR - 2019 - 1.7 - 2016 1.7

>

> Here's the number that sticks out - scoring average - 2019 70.74 - 2016 - 69.6. She's giving the field 4.5 shots per 4 round event as compared to 2016 and I'd suggest it's proximity to the hole, which is iron play which goes back to the equipment.

I don't have the data, but I'd guess that her 2016 full season stats are a bit misleading if tying it to 4 wins. If I recall correctly, she started to slide in the last 1/3 of the year or so. My guess is the period in 2016 when she booked 4 wins (1 major) and was in contention at 2 other majors looked more like the 2015 stats.

 

She won last year to take some of the heat off. A win is a win, and I wouldn't disagree that this is the most important stat/outcome. I thought she was looking better late last year and early this year, but when you look at how she's hitting it her game continues to deteriorate ever so slightly (it's difficult to say if it's been a continuous decline as some figures looked better in 2018, boosted by/including the win).

 

I still think she could win this year but so far many stats are down again.

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It's a lot of competition golf since she was young. Could be battle fatigue.

Used to see her on TV, glowing with energy and eagerness to win, now I see a tired face. One would think bigger paycheck equals more joy........ but that could also mean larger debt and responsibilities.

Whatever it turns out to be, I wish Lydia to be happy with her life. Things will take care of themselves when there are hope and goal.

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> @"Raving Shanker" said:

> > @DavePelz4 said:

> > > @Argonne69 said:

> > > The competition is not standing still, though. Her GIR stat in 2016 was good for 31st. Today she's 59th. Her driving accuracy in 2016 was good for 68th. Today she's #95.

> > >

> >

> > Agree with the increased volume of competition and the improvement of the competition as well. But that 4.5 shots per event differential with the same stats has to be coming from somewhere. The lowest scoring average in 2019 compared to 2016 is only 0.2/round or 1 shot per event better when she's gone the other direction by 5 shots. Again, I think it's her prox which is why it's sad that stat isn't available.

> But how many players are now averaging under 70? I think it is the depth of field also.

 

Increased volume = depth of field.

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There are a ton of successful players who have had their games head a bit south prematurely. We still cheer for them. Lydia is a real character, and an asset for the tour. Every time I watch her I'm reminded that I need to lighten up, and try to have more fun on the course.

 

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> @Argonne69 said:

> > @"oz dee cee" said:

> > It ain’t the equipment, it’s Lydia.

>

> I agree. I think she's once again been spending way too much time working on her full swing, and neglecting her short game, primarily her wedges. I agree with DaveP that her proximity to the hole is the likely culprit. Her Putts per GIR has gone up to 1.784 from 1.711. That's an average of 1.31 strokes per round.

 

Her similar stats and scoring average are tied, in my opinion, to the new breed of players on the LPGA. Much like the Tiger proofed courses the norm on the ladies tour is getting longer. So Lydia hits it ~250 of the tee-same as in the past. So she is now further from the green on her approach shots. Which leads to not hitting it as close. Which leads to more putts and a higher shooting average.

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> @Shilgy said:

> Her similar stats and scoring average are tied, in my opinion, to the new breed of players on the LPGA. Much like the Tiger proofed courses the norm on the ladies tour is getting longer. So Lydia hits it ~250 of the tee-same as in the past. So she is now further from the green on her approach shots. Which leads to not hitting it as close. Which leads to more putts and a higher shooting average.

Interesting. I've never thought of it this way. I've always thought her game has slipped slightly hence we don't know what she would have done had she kept playing the same.

 

It's also a question of what the baseline year is. Her numbers are noticeably down from 2014-2015. Could be the course or just hitting it worse. 2016 is also a tale of two seasons in my view. But if you just wanted to say the last 3.5 (or 3.0) seasons shes' been ~250 off the tee, ~70% of fairways and greens but more putts because longer approaches = farther away from the hole I'd listen/think about it.

 

I know this last week's course was long but I didn't know they've been lengthening them a lot in general. But I haven't been paying that close attention to the average and I'm sure it's not getting shorter.

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Based on the published distance for each event, it doesn't appear that the overall length has changed much. The KPMG was long, but otherwise the lengths seem to be the same.

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> @"Ignatius Reilly" said:

> I used to be able to identity Lydia from a distance by her profile.

>

> Then she lost a bunch of weight (or grew some height?) and became much lankier.

>

> That change seems to coincide with her decline. Maybe she needs to regain a few pounds, like Carl Pettersen did about a decade ago?

 

I am a little skeptical sometimes with regard to the modern fascination with "fitness."

 

The biggest practical benefit of working out would probably be the development of a stronger lower body as that might add some distance. But after that I think it's mostly just a belief that working out somehow equates to being a more disciplined and dedicated player. But if you can develop the best golf game in the world without becoming a gym rat, I don't see why you'd immediately accept that.

 

While Rory McIlroy and Adam Scott have endorsement deals that essentially make them male models and they undoubtedly want to maintain a consistent level of energy, I fail to see what benefits Lydia would be getting simply by getting skinny. She's not all up in magazines and advertisements like Rory and Adam are. And if she's already got game, why would she worry about losing weight?

 

It doesn't add up.

 

I can fathom her trying to add some _strength_ in the legs, but I'm not sure she has given her frame. Seems to me she went from normal to skinny without adding much muscle? Given that she was never a "large" girl, I don't really know why a golfer would want to do that if they were playing well.

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> @MelloYello said:

> > @"Ignatius Reilly" said:

> > I used to be able to identity Lydia from a distance by her profile.

> >

> > Then she lost a bunch of weight (or grew some height?) and became much lankier.

> >

> > That change seems to coincide with her decline. Maybe she needs to regain a few pounds, like Carl Pettersen did about a decade ago?

>

> I am a little skeptical sometimes with regard to the modern fascination with "fitness."

>

> The biggest practical benefit of working out would probably be the development of a stronger lower body as that might add some distance. But after that I think it's mostly just a belief that working out somehow equates to being a more disciplined and dedicated player. But if you can develop the best golf game in the world without becoming a gym rat, I don't see why you'd immediately accept that.

>

> While Rory McIlroy and Adam Scott have endorsement deals that essentially make them male models and they undoubtedly want to maintain a consistent level of energy, I fail to see what benefits Lydia would be getting simply by getting skinny. She's not all up in magazines and advertisements like Rory and Adam are. And if she's already got game, why would she worry about losing weight?

>

> It doesn't add up.

>

> I can fathom her trying to add some _strength_ in the legs, but I'm not sure she has given her frame. Seems to me she went from normal to skinny without adding much muscle? Given that she was never a "large" girl, I don't really know why a golfer would want to do that if they were playing well.

 

Plain old vanity IMO. And why not. She is doing a good job transitioning into adulthood which I always suspect is extra difficult for child prodigies.

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Lydia's fitness kick didn't really get started until after her late 2016 slide.

 

Jan 2019:

 

![](http://www2.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Lydia+Ko+Diamond+Resorts+Tournament+Champions+VIXn1ijXltYl.jpg "")

 

Oct 2017:

 

![](http://www4.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Lydia+Ko+Sime+Darby+LPGA+Malaysia+Day+1+zD4M5uFWS7Zl.jpg "")

 

 

 

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> @fanofseri said:

> I criticized Lydia in the past, but that was before she got super hot. Clubs and teachers are overrated. Once a real man walks into her life, she'll be headed to the Hall.

 

"Super hot" as in sexy hot?? really????

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Looking at birdies, eagles, scoring average, and an average par of 71.8. In 2016 Lydia averaged 4.12 strokes gained from birdies and eagles. Her scoring average was 69.60, so she was losing 1.92 strokes to bogies or worse. This season she's averaging 3.52 strokes gained from birdies and eagles, and with a scoring average of 70.74, she's losing 2.46 strokes to bogies or worse.

 

Make fewer birdies/eagles (proximity to the hole), and more bogies. That's a recipe for a scoring average increase. She's missing only slightly more greens (0.28 per round). With an estimated scrambling percentage of 50%, that only accounts for an increase of 0.14 strokes per round. Of course, it also means one less birdie opportunity. Her scrambling (around the greens) doesn't appear to be any worse, so I have to conclude that she's losing strokes off the fairway. A player who is forced to layup after a bad tee shot is generally not going to get up and down very often. There's missing a fairway, and then there's really missing a fairway.

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> @preiter20 said:

> I think she was the recipient of some awful advice, either from her parents or others in her circle back in 2016. Leadbetter really messed up her swing with the "A" swing B.S.

 

To be fair and frank, she was the top player in the world while Leadbetter was her coach, and all facets of her game were on point, especially accuracy with the irons, short game, and putting. Her career has gone straight downhill since she left him.

 

Leadbetter gets a bad rap around here, and maybe rightly so in some situations, but not in this one I'm afraid. She ditched him looking for more length off the tee, and its basically submarined her career.

 

 

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No, she stated quite clearly that she wanted more length when she went to Leadbetter. By the time she left him she had lost distance, and accuracy. Her short game kept her in the thick of things.

 

She switched from Guy Wilson to DL in December 2013. Her first full year on tour was 2014. She averaged 249.58 yds, and 79.2% of her fairways. In 2015 she was at 250.39/75.4%. In 2016 she was at 246.73/70.9. She dumped DL at the end of 2016. So, in 3 full years with DL she lost a close to 3 yds, and 8.3% of accuracy.

 

If one spends a few years with an instructor, and the numbers don't improve, it's time to find a new coach. Of course, that doesn't mean her next coach, or the one after that, was any good.

 

Frankly, she should ditch the whole swing coach thing. 'Extremely overrated.

 

Keep in mind that Lydia played in 12 LPGA tournaments as an amateur in 2013. She had one win, and 5 additional top tens, including a 2nd at Evian, a 3rd at ISPS Handa, and a 4T at Walmart. She wasn't some raw amateur that DL molded into a champion.

 

Ping G425 Max Driver 12 (0 Flat) - Aldila Ascent Red 50 Stiff (46")
TaylorMade AeroBurner Mini Driver 16 - Matrix Speed RUL-Z 60 Stiff
Ping G410 7wd 20.5 (0 Flat) - Alta CB 65 Stiff (43")
Ping G410 9wd 23.5 (0 Flat) - Alta CB 65 Stiff (42.5")
Ping G425 6h 30 (0 Flat) - Alta CB 70 Stiff
PXG 0311P Gen3 6-P (2 Deg Weak, 1 Deg Flat) - True Temper Elevate 95 S /

Ping i200 6-P Orange Dot (2 Deg Weak, 2 Deg Flat) - True Temper XP 95 S
Ping Glide 4.0 52-12 S, 56-10 Eye2, and 60-10 S Orange Dot (2 Deg Flat) - Ping Z-Z115 Wedge
PXG Blackjack 36" - SuperStroker Flatso 2.0

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> @Dpavs said:

> No, no Argonne, I disagree. I think she really does need to change her caddie and coach again, eventually the law of averages has to catch up to her!

 

Lol. She caught a lot of grief when she switched caddies, but she's had her current caddie for close to two years now. Many of the other top players have swapped caddies numerous times since the start of the 2018 season.

Ping G425 Max Driver 12 (0 Flat) - Aldila Ascent Red 50 Stiff (46")
TaylorMade AeroBurner Mini Driver 16 - Matrix Speed RUL-Z 60 Stiff
Ping G410 7wd 20.5 (0 Flat) - Alta CB 65 Stiff (43")
Ping G410 9wd 23.5 (0 Flat) - Alta CB 65 Stiff (42.5")
Ping G425 6h 30 (0 Flat) - Alta CB 70 Stiff
PXG 0311P Gen3 6-P (2 Deg Weak, 1 Deg Flat) - True Temper Elevate 95 S /

Ping i200 6-P Orange Dot (2 Deg Weak, 2 Deg Flat) - True Temper XP 95 S
Ping Glide 4.0 52-12 S, 56-10 Eye2, and 60-10 S Orange Dot (2 Deg Flat) - Ping Z-Z115 Wedge
PXG Blackjack 36" - SuperStroker Flatso 2.0

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