Help with Par 5 Strategy ------> Stats and Scoring Discussion

Started the conversation in another thread but didn't want to get another poster's thread off-topic.

I'm a 6.7hc and over my last 20 rounds my Par 5 scoring average is 5.31, which I feel is pretty atrocious. I have been using the strategy of going for Par 5s in 2 every time with the Broadie/SG approach of "get it as close as possible," but I'm struggling and think I might need to try the more conservative approach and see how I score.

3/4 of my Par 5s are reachable with a good drive, and there is no OB/water threats on 2nd shots except for 1 of the 4, either. Just woods and bunkers. But my home course is a poor muni-style club where the bunkers are hard with inconsistent sand and conditions and all the greens are elevated. There is also no practice bunker, so I am generally poor from the bunkers.

These 180-210 approaches for me run from 4-wood to 4-hybrid.

Here are the 2 holes that give me the most trouble. I am a good partial wedge player from 30-70 yards, so I am tempted to try to lay-up as close as I can get to the bunkers without reaching them. In other words, rather than lay-up to a certain number (i.e., 95 yards), lay-up to the distance that will leave me 10-20 yards short of the bunkers, regardless of what distance approach that leaves me (whether it be 30 yards, 45 yards, 70 yards, etc.)

That or maybe I just need to be better out of the sand, but its hard to do without a practice bunker or consistent traps. When I play at nicer courses with proper bunkers, I can get it on the green every time and have a lot more confidence. But not so at the home track where I feel like I'm guessing. You can see from the dark spots in the bunkers in the images that they aren't exactly PGA Tour quality traps.

The course is actually a Robert Trent Jones design, so while these Par 5s are reachable, there is measured risk-reward. If your 2nd shot isn't on the green, your third isn't going to be an easy fringe chip/putt.

Anybody have any input?

We have the same kind of bunkers. Getting out of them is easy, but controlling distance is nearly impossible. Laying up to a comfortable partial or full wedge is a good play and still fits within the statistics based strategy. Probably worthwhile to find and practice your favorite partial wedge distance. I favor 58° from 50 - 60 yards. Very easy for me to dial in that distance. One other thing would be to go for it in 2 only if you have high probability of missing the bunkers.

I practice the partial wedges a lot. Certainly more than anyone at my club.

I take driveway markers and place them at 30, 40, 50, 60, & 70 yards and have dialed in those distances pretty well with the Pelz-style clock method using my 54 & 58.

I would guess its my biggest strength relative to my handicap, and it makes me a fairly popular scramble partner at our club events despite not being that long (235 carry /250 total driver, 155 7-iron, 125 PW).

I feel like I'm always guessing in these bunkers. Opening it up, there might not be enough sand and I might bounce right off the surface and blade it. But leaving the face more square and picking it clean I might dig and not get out. I'm fine out of the real stuff on a manicured course.

I agree. The Broadie approach suggests getting as close as possible, without taking on excessive risk. The risk could be penalty shot situations, or it could simply be very difficult lies. One SG-informed instructor suggests that your shot selection should have at lest a 70% chance of "success", meaning that it doesn't end up in any type of severely adverse spot. If you're hitting some percentage of your second shots on the green, but 40% or more in the bunkers or woods, that's taking on too much risk. This is even more true if the bunkers are as difficult and inconsistent as you describe. Laying up short of the bunkers is a very reasonable play.

I would venture to say that I'm not leaving myself with a shot I am confident in 70% of the time.

Whereas I am going to be confident from 30-70 yards from the fairway 90% of the time, with the 10% variance being having a shot-sided pitch over a bunker. But even then, I'm still confident I can get it on 20 feet past the hole. Just wouldn't be confident in throwing a dart.

The ego think is a part of it, though. Part of me feels like not going for the green inside of 200 yards with a 3H/4H is crazy.

I'm going for the green every time from that close. To be fair, I am better than scratch from the sand though

Learn where your miss is, even if it is long. LONG & LEFT looks good for both those greens

Learn how to play out of those traps. If they are firm you may need low bounce LW option and don't open the face. Take extra balls late and night on the course and work on it

Let me also ask this, what clubs are you hitting in from the distances shown in the images?

Long and left is pretty bad on both of those holes.

Long and left on the first one, you've got a downhill chip/pitch from the rough to a green running away from you if you didn't cross the cart path. You have to be magic to get the ball to stop.

Long and left on the 2nd one, your ball is hitting off the greenside downslope and rolling into the wood line. You now have a 35-50 yard pitch off leaves and pinestraw to a green surface 15 feet above where your feet currently are.

I hit driver 235 carry/ 250 total. 4W carries 215. 3H carries 200. 4H carries 190. 5H carries 180.

My hybrid miss is a low toe-cut, which kills on both of these holes.

I'm not a great bunker player, and I've recently seen data that would suggest unless a player is very good at getting up and down from bunkers like that young lad @cardoustie , being in one is essentially like a 1 stroke penalty most of the time. I very rarely go for par 5's in 2 unless it's under or right about at 200 yards and I have room to go long. I can literally only think of 1 time in the past few years that I went for it in 2 over 200 yards, and the shot worked out well. I either end up in a bunker... or I tugged it a bit and now I'm hitting a 20 yard short sided shot over a bunker, etc.
If you don't have issues hitting the fairway from the tee, just lay up to a spot safely in front of the bunker for your 2nd. Hit the pitch close... easy birdie. Most par 5's on the courses I play can't even be had in 2, so I'm usually hitting 4i or something. I'm usually like 4i, 4i, wedge or hybrid, 6i, wedge. As far as the wedge shot goes, I prefer 50 yards but I'd have no issue if it was 40 or even 30. Statiscally I should be better from 30, but I find that I get a lot more spin on the 50 yard shot and it's more predictable.

I certainly wouldn't be confident of hitting the green from 190 yards. The mid-level PGA Tour pros only hit 55 to 60% of the greens from 175-200 yards last year, you're probably well under 50% quite possibly under 40%. And from what you describe, a missed green means you're in a very difficult position. That risk just doesn't sound like a good risk to take, in my mind.

But be realistic, the mid-level pros didn't hit 90% of their greens from under 100 yards, you won't either. Even so, I think its a good bet that you'll take fewer bogies or worse with the more conservative strategy on these two holes.

Man you need a high flying fairway like a 5w or 7w it seems. My advice skewed as I carry a 5h 200 and a 5w 235, both very high

At 52 I would deny the YOUNG part, but yes on par 5's I will aim for green side front traps if I can't fly it on

looking at your numbers I do wonder if a 7w would be a good play instead of a 3h ... and carrying 3 hybrids, especially as they are shots to elevated greens

My favorites historically> Ping TiSi Tec, Ping G25 and Callaway v-series heavenwood

Trying to help, I love par 5's ... and courses with 6 of them

I didn't mean to imply I would hit the green 90% of the time from inside 100 yards. Of course there will be the odd thin/fat in there. I just meant confidence in terms of the shot itself, i.e., a 60 yard shot from the fairway doesn't scare me at all, whereas a 20 yard bunker shot off hard/wet sand to a green above my head or a downhill chip from the rough with the ball below my feet to a green running away from me would have my knees knocking.

Those bunkers should probably be treated as "excessive risk" in the Broadie parlance. I'd lay up just short of those and put my money on my partial wedge game to give me a chance at birdie. I love those types of shots, BTW. I get many more birdies on par 5s from having short pitches/chips rather than attempting to try for eagles. A short pitch/chip makes par a high probability, and birdies reasonably common.

This approach, of course, does take the eagle out fo the equation altogether. At my level of skill, I'll take that tradeoff most of the time.

I have never hit a 7-wood, so that could very well be an option. My 4W is 16.5* (215 carry), and then I have Ping G Hybrids 3-5, which are 19* (195-200y), 22* (185-190y), and 26* (175-180y), respectfully. Then I transition to Callaway Apex CF16 6-iron at 27* (165-170y).

Even though the 5H is only 1* stronger than my 6-iron, the difference in clubhead speed gives me good gapping.

if you have even a small yard.

Dig a shallow hole about 4 feet across. Find and replicate the sand you have at your course. ( ask them where it comes from ) . Fill it. Then even if you have to hit into a net , practice it. Very little work and zero maintenance for years.

id never consider laying up because of a greenside trap. It needs to be water or OB . Or I’m going at it. Get good on sand and getting up and down will become 100 % easier than getting up and down from 100 yards.

Yeah, as it stands trying to get there in 2, I make more bogeys than birdies and a hell of a lot more doubles than I do eagles.

Over my last 20 rounds:

Par 5s played = 81

Strokes for those 81 holes = 430 (+25 over par)

Average score: 5.31

Eagles - 0 (0%)

Birdies - 15 (18.5%)

Pars - 35 (43.2%)

Bogeys - 20 (24.7%)

Doubles -11 (13.6%)

based on your yardages, def go 4w then 7w and dump the 3h

G25 7 wood is my suggestion with you being a PING guy. Something 20 or 21* with a high launch shaft

And like blade says, learn to play from those traps. Once you are half decent a mediocre sand shot is to 15 feet and that is tour level from 100 yards

The thing about elevated greens is it can be difficult to pitch to a pin you can't see. I much prefer a 50yd shot from the fairway where I can see the pin and maybe a bit of the putting surface. Given that the slope can be sever and the sand inconsistent, I'm laying up to the closest safe spot to the green and pitching it tight for a decent birdie putt. Par should be really easy.

BT

Further stats for reference (Last 20 rounds):

Par 3s:

Holes - 82

Strokes - 305 (+59)

Average - 3.72

Birdies - 5 (6.1%)

Pars - 32 (39%)

Bogeys - 26 (31.7%)

Doubles - 19 (23.2%)

Par 4s:

Holes - 197

Strokes - 880 (+92)

Average - 4.47

Birdies - 15 (7.6%)

Pars - 99 (50.2%)

Bogeys - 59 (29.9%)

Doubles - 24 (12.2%)

Par 5s:

Holes - 81

Strokes - 430 (+25 over par)

Average score: 5.31

Eagles - 0 (0%)

Birdies - 15 (18.5%)

Pars - 35 (43.2%)

Bogeys - 20 (24.7%)

Doubles -11 (13.6%)

Curious if anything jumps out to astute stat observers.

I think I am going to take the following approach and see how it goes:

One the first hole, if I am 190 out, an 8 iron puts me at this landing spot short of the bunkers. Even if I push it right I would still be short of the bunkers, and if I execute properly, I am left with a 35 yard pitch to Pin A, 40 yards to Pin B, and 45 yards to Pin C, all with a green that is running towards me, so short of the pins leaves me an uphill birdie putt.

On the second hole, from 200 yards, a 6 iron puts me at this spot short of the trouble, and I have a 45 yard pitch to Pin A, a 50 yard Pitch to Pin B, and a 55 yard pitch to Pin C, all with the green running towards me again, so anything short of the pin leaves me below the hole with an uphill birdie putt. I might also think 7 or 8 here, as well, only because a pushed 6-iron brings the ditch and trap back into play. An 8, the most conservative, would leave me with 60 to A, 65 to B, and 70 to C. My pitch would be longer, but it would completely eliminate the trap and ditch right of the green. If the Pin were at position C, I may still err the pitch to position B because the green narrows so much at C and short would bring the trap and ditch back into play and leave me short-sided with the green running away from me again. Erring towards B would leave me with a longer 15-20ft putt, but it's uphill.

that's a lot of doubles

Unfortunately I agree.

2.7/round. 15% of my last 360 holes.

It's why I'm questioning whether I'm taking the best approach towards my course management.

what's your FIR, GIR and putts per round? Don't see that. There are ranges by hdcp out there for each of these measures
paging @RichieHunt

Last 20:
Trending Index: 6.7
Putts: 32.9
GIR: 8.9 (49.2%)
FIR: 71.2%
Scrambling: 33.8%
Sand Save: 8%
Eagle % (All Holes): 0%
Birdie % (All Holes): 9.7%
Par % (All Holes): 46.1%
Bogey % (All Holes): 29.2%
Double % (All Holes): 15%

I would also love to hear from @RichieHunt. I’m a bit of a stat wonk and I know that’s his business.

so a 6-10 cap AVG:

50% FIR ,, you are on the money

37% GIR ... you are ahead of the curve

33.7 putts, you are in that area

I snuck another one in there on you with an edit.

Sand saves - 8.3%.

24 traps last 20 rounds, 2 up and downs. But I'm not sure I count those correctly. If I am in a greenside trap on a Par 5 in 2 and don't get up and down for birdie but 2-putt for par, is that a sand save or not? I have not been counting it as one.

I do think a bit of that has to do with my club’s unkempt bunkers. When I’m invited to play at one of the nicer clubs and actually feel like I can hit a splash shot, I do much better. The last round I played away from home, I was 1/3 on sand saves, and all 3 were on the green inside 15 feet.

We just don’t have the money to keep them up like that. We do allow “rake and place” in our weekly money games, but I can never decide whether that helps or hurts and whether I am better off hitting off hard, wet, compact sand or looser wet, compact sand.

I think your just better off playing off the sand as is if your allowed to rake it assuming there isnt anything sticking up to get in the way of the club. At least in my experience.

Why do you think I’m better of not raking and placing and just playing off the firm, wet, compact sand?

Just curious. You think I’ve got a better chance off a tight lie on firm/packed sand than if I fluff it with a rake?

Do you think it’s easier to try to pick it clean with a standard pitch/chip setup rather than trying to open the face and use the bounce on sand that has been raked but remains wet/compact, albeit looser thanks to the rake?