Will Jordan pass Tiger ?

[cdnglf]

Ok. Here are the stats:

 

Jordan, 113 starts, 11 wins (3 majors)

 

Jack, 114 starts, 20 wins, (6 majors)

 

Tiger, 119 starts, 32 wins, (6 majors)

 

 

I was too lazy to go back into jack in 1966 and tiger in 2001 to track to their exact 113th start, but the above is close enough to prove the point.

 

In one of the many many similar threads about this stuff over the years, someone did some pretty interesting analysis about win percentage stabilizing in a player's mid 20s, and then more or less remaining the same throughout his career until he moves into the semi-retirement/injured/ceremonial phase.

 

Rory and Spieth are both hovering around 10-11%, which is miles ahead of their peers (I forget who's in third place, but the number is something like 4-5%), but miles behind either Jack or Tiger. For comparison, IIRC Mickelson is somewhere around 7 or 8%.

 

I can see either Rory or Speith or both winning 10+ majors. 14 I'm not sure about--slim chance but probably not? 18's out of the question. Same for tournament victories. Maybe something similar to Phil--40 or 50--but 70 or 80 is not happening.

 

Now if you could combine Rory's long game with Spieth's short game....now you're talking.....

 

The (extremely) optimistic case:

 

1. Jordan's true level of play is what we've seen over the past 3 seasons, and what he did at age 20 and younger is not relevant. That's 10 wins in 63 starts, about a 16% win rate.

2. He will continue to play a lot (more than most other elite players)

3. He will sustain that rate for 10 more years, with a gentle Phil-like decline for the 10 years after that.

 

Roughly:

10 years * 22 events/year * 0.16 + 10 years * 20 events/year * 0.1

= 35.2 + 20

= 55.2 more wins

 

He's got 11 wins already, so that would give him 66 wins total - well short of Tiger, but well clear of everyone else in recent memory.

If 1 out of every 6 wins is a major, that would give him 11. A lot of luck, and maybe he gets to 14.

[Ping Zings]

I say No!

[NoTalentLefty]

I don't think so. BUT I hope he does past everybody.

[jgonz69]

tiger was so far ahead of jordan at the same pt in their careers it's a wonder anyone even brings up the subject ...

Wins before 24.

Jordan has 11 total wins and 3 majors. Tiger had 15 total wins wins and 2 majors. Jack had 8 and 3.

You must be talking waffle house waitresses.

 

lol ... learn how to analyze something rationally ...

:rolleyes:

[ex0dus]

At a comparable age Tiger won a much higher percentage of starts but at the same time it is unlikely that Spieth will be done at 32. Spieth's strengths work well in all of the majors.

 

Unlikely but certainly possible.

[llewol007]

Speith is not gonna get his putter in the the wrong hole and his chances will go up in smokes as did Tigers. Although Tiger was self inflicted with a facination to get super fit. Speith has a chance but like many said prior, he has to get to double digits first

[Socrates]

The pool of players is so much better now than when Tiger dominated. And is only getting better.

Here's a few of slouches that Tiger played against:

Phil, VJ, Els, Garcia, LoveIII, Toms, Cink, Leonard, G. Ogilvy, Harrington, DiMarco, Lehman, Couples, Funk, Duval, Janzen, Elkington, O'Meara, Olazabal, Furyk, K. Perry, Calcavecchia, Z. Johnson, Kuchar and you get the picture. Just your average bunch of no talent hacks. That's 327 Tour Wins and 35 Majors in that group of talent-less guys.

 

Not to mention that most of the wins Tiger threw up there are Majors, or Top 50 WR events where everyone in the field is playing at the top of their game. There aren't any John Deere's or "Milwaukee Open's" on that list.

[rorygilmore9]

No

[mwkbmw]

Yes, Jordan can pass Tiger. I say that with this caveat: If Tiger loses driving privileges because of his DUI, then, no.

[beachguy]

I think Jordan will have a much longer career ...he won't put his body through torture like other golfers. Keep that short game and he will be just fine

[santasquatcha]

I agree that this thread should be restarted only if he hits 10 majors by the time he's 33 or so.

 

So much can happen between now and then.

One thing Jordan does have, is competing in the final group of 3-4 majors that he did not win...

 

Which means he just plain has the "it" factor for major tournaments.

 

Think about how many majors Jack could have won had he not placed 2nd and just holed a couple more putts.

 

How many of those T2's for Jack was he within 1/2 strokes? I've never seen that number. I think that would be a better determination of what he could've won. 3 or more strokes off the winner and I would say the T2 is purely symbolic. I'm not trying to be argumentative. I truly am curios what that breakout would look like and am way too lazy to look it up myself

 

Agree, not sure how many he was actually in contention for, but just looking at the amount of top5s every year...

 

If that's what it takes to get 18 major wins, then I find that damn near impossible. YJS would basically have to put his 2015 season on repeat for a while to be as competitive as Jack.

[Pepperturbo]

Too many variables in life to predict. When Tiger set upon his outstanding play, people said he would pass JN. Tiger even made it public he sought that goal. Well, sh** happened and he didn't and won't.

 

I can only hope for Jordan and his team that he can maintain needed focus and priorities. The more pertinent question is, does Jordan see Tigers record as one to pass. I don't believe he sets goals like that.