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NFL weekly pick's contest (season long) 2018


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so three of us say "no problem" for missing a week. Me , Adam. Pete.

 

Any others say ok to that ?

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even though it happened during an embarrassing performance against a division rival it still was sweet.

 

Wheels on the mid 30's RB!!!! sweet help you have been giving the Skins this season AP. stay healthy.

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Week 14 Lines for picks

 

Thursday

Jacksonville at Tenn. -4 1/2 37

 

 

Sunday

 

Baltimore at KC -6 1/2 53

Indy at Houston -5 49

Carolina -2 at Cleveland 47

Atlanta at Green Bay -5 1/2 49 1/2

New Orleans -8 at Tampa 56

NY Jets at Buffalo -3 1/2 38 1/2

New England -7 1/2 at Miami 47

LA Rams -3 at Chicago 52

NY Giants -3 1/2 at Washington 41

Denver -4 at San Fran 45 1/2

Cincy at LA Chargers -14 48

Detroit -3 at Arizona 40 1/2

Philadelphia at Dallas -3 1/2 43

Pittsburgh -10 1/2 at Oakland 51 1/2

 

 

Monday Night

 

Minnesota at Seattle -3 1/2 45

 

 

 

8 home dogs this week

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Sorry for being a day late this week folks .

 

the LINES are up.

 

 

Pick and Post away

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Good morning lady and gentlemen. I'm also late to post as I've been out of the office the last couple days with some doctors appointments for the baby and yesterday's national day of mourning.

 

Updated rankings through week 13 are as below. We have found it in our heart to forgive knockitclose for his week 1 indiscretions and he has had 3 losses removed from his record, putting him back into the top spot based on win percentage.

 

 

 

Also, updated ATS standings:

 

 

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Don't love a lot of this weeks picks because teams I'd normally like have burned me more than once already. Nonetheless, we'll go with....

 

DEN -4: They've been playing better as of late, and despite losing Sanders, SF is on their 3rd string QB and 3rd string RB. SF playing for a #1 overall pick while DEN is trying to make a wild card spot. I'll give the points to the home team.

 

LAR -3: Trubisky may be starting again, but gotta put my money one of the best teams in the league only giving up 3. Talib is back in the secondary for LA which should help some of their prior issues and Mack can't cover everyone on the field. Giving the points again to the home team.

 

GB -5.5: GB doesn't impress me, but ATL is even worse. However, I'd like to think this will be a bounce back game where someone (whether it's interim coaching or Rodgers himself) tries to prove the point that McCarthy was "the problem." Being at home against a Falcons team that gives up 27 points per game already doesn't hurt.

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Thursday

Jacksonville at Tenn. -4 1/2 37

 

Sunday

Baltimore at KC -6 1/2 53

Indy at Houston -5 49

Carolina -2 at Cleveland 47

Atlanta at Green Bay -5 1/2 49 1/2

New Orleans -8 at Tampa 56

NY Jets at Buffalo -3 1/2 38 1/2

New England -7 1/2 at Miami 47

LA Rams -3 at Chicago 52

NY Giants -3 1/2 at Washington 41

Denver -4 at San Fran 45 1/2

Cincy at LA Chargers -14 48

Detroit -3 at Arizona 40 1/2

Philadelphia at Dallas -3 1/2 43

Pittsburgh -10 1/2 at Oakland 51 1/2

 

Monday Night

Minnesota at Seattle -3 1/2 45

 

As usual, I don't like any of these games, lol. Except for KC-Balt, and my Rule #1 is "Don't bet the home team".

Interesting that many teams are on different trajectories than they were in Week 10. Cowboys, Seahawks, Denver on the rise... even the Giants are showing signs of life. Redskins, Panthers, Packers sliding... Vikings lost 2 of last 3. But, that just makes it more confusing for me, lol. Have hot teams found what works, or did they catch lightening in a bottle and will soon revert to crappy early season form (Exhibit A: Colts)?

 

Anyway, I'm playing the hot hands...

The Cowboys are now atop the NFC East. They kicked off their 4 game win streak by beating the Eagles in Philly. Amari Cooper seems to have made a bigger difference in Dallas than he did in Oakland. Dallas -3.5

Revert to the mean prediction: The green-clad grinches keep the Salvation Army pot from filling up. Eagles win by 1.

 

The Broncos are on a 3 game win streak. Last week they were road favorites and they didn't let me down. Phillip Lindsay is having a helluva rookie season for an undrafted player and getting better as the season goes on. The 49ers moved ahead of the Cardinals ... for the top 2019 draft pick. Denver -4

Revert to the mean prediction: Don't bet against the pride of Southern Mississippi. Nick Mullens lights it up and San Fran wins by a FG.

 

The Giants have won 3 of their last 4 games. It's like they finally figured out that having all these talented players at RB and WR and an experienced QB is an advantage. "If Mark Sanchez can stay healthy..." is not how Redskins fans want to start a sentence, but here they are. New York -3.5

Revert to the mean prediction: The Giants have not played a game as road favorites before this week. They buckle under the pressure while Mark Sanchez Adrian Peterson finds his old form. The safeties may catch as many balls as Odell Beckham in this one. Skins by 1 in a punters duel.

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Week 14 Lines for picks

 

Thursday

Jacksonville at Tenn. -4 1/2 37

 

 

Sunday

 

Baltimore at KC -6 1/2 53

Indy at Houston -5 49

Carolina -2 at Cleveland 47

Atlanta at Green Bay -5 1/2 49 1/2

New Orleans -8 at Tampa 56

NY Jets at Buffalo -3 1/2 38 1/2

New England -7 1/2 at Miami 47

LA Rams -3 at Chicago 52

NY Giants -3 1/2 at Washington 41

Denver -4 at San Fran 45 1/2

Cincy at LA Chargers -14 48

Detroit -3 at Arizona 40 1/2

Philadelphia at Dallas -3 1/2 43

Pittsburgh -10 1/2 at Oakland 51 1/2

 

 

Monday Night

 

Minnesota at Seattle -3 1/2 45

 

 

 

8 home dogs this week

 

Like Touch and DoctorO in the backroom at the Willard Hotel, there was a clandestine meeting to discuss the possible formation of a super group. Jimmy Page asked a couple of unhappy members of The Who to come have a jam. One of The Who members noted it could go over like a lead balloon, John Entwistle stated, "More like a lead zeppelin." The name didn't stick, and the players went their separate ways. A few years later, when the band decided to rename themselves from the "New Yardbirds" the name was picked, Lead Zeppelin. They knew the stupid Americans wouldn't be able to pronounce it correctly, so they removed the "A" and then proceeded to rip up the world. There's your factoid for the week.

 

Tonight is a big night. Two incredibly boring teams facing off. I can't pick it, because then I would be only person in America to care. They should play rock paper scissors to decide the winner and then go have a beer, itd be more interesting.

 

Edgar Allen Poe was a weird bird, perhaps why he wrote about the Raven. Historically the trickster in Native American folk stories, but given a more sinister role in Poe's writings. And who are they playing? Yep, the Chiefs. I see the Ravens being out-trickstered by Patrick "my helmet is too small" Mahomes. The guy throws for over 3 TDs a game, and the Ravens simply can't keep up whether its Sleepy Eye or the other guy at the helm. I am giving the points, and taking the Chiefs.

 

The "I am excited to spend the day with..." goes to Mitch Trubisky. And much like our leader who was excited to be included in the GHWB ceremony, it will probably go about as well. Mitch will wish he had someone handing Aaron Donald a mint, because that guy is going to be paying rent in the Bears backfield. Mitch, do yourself a favor, act like you are still hurt. Rams and the points please.

 

Le'Veon won't be at the game, but he did stop by the redwood forest... OK he didn't. He was in Eureka procuring 1 lb of the finest CA herb so he could eat Doritos and watch his ex-teammates stumble over themselves playing the Raiders whom Ben has never beaten in Oakland. Speaking of Doritos, it takes me back to my youth and the wonderfully cynical classic "Winnebago Warrior" by the Dead Kennedys. There was a guy who didn't believe the American public would be able to pronounce a word correctly, or even understand his perceived decline of the American ethos. Old Jello, that guy had a special place in my cynical youth. Well, onto the folks who won't be eating Doritos Sunday afternoon. I don't like 10.5 points given the history, I don't like the over either, but the Steelers could go off since the Raiders know it'll be short passes until they aren't short and JuJu and AB go off like crazy people. In a Le'Veon, pass the bong because I don't know what I am smokin special, I am taking the Steelers and giving the points.

 

Hope you folks in the warmer parts of the world are getting out to golf, and as I enter my winter slothfulness have a beer for me because no beer is my penance for sitting on my arse all day...

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so three of us say "no problem" for missing a week. Me , Adam. Pete.

 

Any others say ok to that ?

 

The only thing at stake here is bragging rights, and this all for fun. In the end, it is winning percentage which determines your standings. No money on the line. SO taking 3 0's basically is a wash. You would gain on those who went 0-3 or 1-2 but lose to those that went 2-1 or 3-0. I have no idea where the ties come into play..."fuzzy math"

I make a motion that next years lines are all posted with a .5 so we get no more ties.

 

I have been off the blog so I know I went 1-2 and take a loss with Green Bay and Kansas City both reminding me that taking the ugly dogs with huge points is sometimes a good thing.

Mike McCarthy getting the ax was poetic justice for that unthinkable loss in Lambeau Field. No leaping allowed! But a silent golf clap. "Thank you, Mike, for your time with the Cheese Heads, now clear out your desk and don't forget the Rumple Minze in the metal filing cabinet".

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So I am thinking about a poll. That would be how many games does Jay Gruden need to win to keep his job? A-0 B-1 C-2 D-3 E-4???

 

I will go on record and say C-2 Which would include either a win over an NFC East opponent the Eagles or the Giants? And the Redskins record would be a respectable 8-8 with a washed up QB off of the street.

 

How weird it would be for them to sneak into the last Wild Card spot with the Vikings and the Panthers seemingly in a death spiral? The Eagles and the Cowboys will be fighting for the East Crown, my edge goes to the Cowboys. The Eagles still have issues on defense but Wentz seems to be getting in a groove.

 

The Redskins will more than likely miss the playoffs with an injury-riddled lineup and dysfunction in the front office, the "Alabama-gate" thing with the team supposedly getting an endorsement from teammates is being washed out in the media as some sort of cop-out pass the buck thing handed down by Bruce Allen, with poor Doug Williams having to justify his signing, not in a very coherent manner.

 

My prediction is the Redskins do not win another game, Gruden gets the ax, and let's all pray on this, Bruce Allen leaves by a very public firing. I can not stand the guy. Gruden is ok, besides who else wants to come to this franchise with this kind of General Manager? He should be with the other Gruden back in Oakland.

 

Gruden has had to deal with an incredible amount of injuries, but some are saying his training camps have not much structure, and players are given too much leeway. I don't know if all of that has merit, but the Redskins seem to be one of the most injury-riddled teams in the NFL, combine that with the fact we never seem to be able to make adjustments at halftime, a Joe Gibbs trademark, and the sign of efficient and good coaching skills. Plus the Redskins are not very disciplined on the field when it comes to controlling game flow. Their 2-minute drill is pathetic.

 

My prediction Gruden gets fired they will not finish 8-8.

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So I am thinking about a poll. That would be how many games does Jay Gruden need to win to keep his job? A-0 B-1 C-2 D-3 E-4???

 

I will go on record and say C-2 Which would include either a win over an NFC East opponent the Eagles or the Giants? And the Redskins record would be a respectable 8-8 with a washed up QB off of the street.

 

How weird it would be for them to sneak into the last Wild Card spot with the Vikings and the Panthers seemingly in a death spiral? The Eagles and the Cowboys will be fighting for the East Crown, my edge goes to the Cowboys. The Eagles still have issues on defense but Wentz seems to be getting in a groove.

 

The Redskins will more than likely miss the playoffs with an injury-riddled lineup and dysfunction in the front office, the "Alabama-gate" thing with the team supposedly getting an endorsement from teammates is being washed out in the media as some sort of cop-out pass the buck thing handed down by Bruce Allen, with poor Doug Williams having to justify his signing, not in a very coherent manner.

 

My prediction is the Redskins do not win another game, Gruden gets the ax, and let's all pray on this, Bruce Allen leaves by a very public firing. I can not stand the guy. Gruden is ok, besides who else wants to come to this franchise with this kind of General Manager? He should be with the other Gruden back in Oakland.

 

Gruden has had to deal with an incredible amount of injuries, but some are saying his training camps have not much structure, and players are given too much leeway. I don't know if all of that has merit, but the Redskins seem to be one of the most injury-riddled teams in the NFL, combine that with the fact we never seem to be able to make adjustments at halftime, a Joe Gibbs trademark, and the sign of efficient and good coaching skills. Plus the Redskins are not very disciplined on the field when it comes to controlling game flow. Their 2-minute drill is pathetic.

 

My prediction Gruden gets fired they will not finish 8-8.

 

My prediction, he won't get fired regardless of what happens rest of season. They were 6-3 to start the year. Now third string QB, lost your rookie RB in the preseason, last few weeks been trotting out your #3-5 WRs. Whether he deserves it or not, this will get chalked up to fluke injury year and they'll move on. Granted, they'll be worse next year, then maybe fire him. Lose all the one year deals they signed this year (Clinton-Dix, Peterson, etc), Smith not coming back next year at least (after the infection issues), don't know if/when Guice will return to form. Etc. Maybe a mid year firing for him next season.

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Week 14 Lines for picks

 

Thursday

Jacksonville at Tenn. -4 1/2 37

 

 

Sunday

 

Baltimore at KC -6 1/2 53

Indy at Houston -5 49

Carolina -2 at Cleveland 47

Atlanta at Green Bay -5 1/2 49 1/2

New Orleans -8 at Tampa 56

NY Jets at Buffalo -3 1/2 38 1/2

New England -7 1/2 at Miami 47

LA Rams -3 at Chicago 52

NY Giants -3 1/2 at Washington 41

Denver -4 at San Fran 45 1/2

Cincy at LA Chargers -14 48

Detroit -3 at Arizona 40 1/2

Philadelphia at Dallas -3 1/2 43

Pittsburgh -10 1/2 at Oakland 51 1/2

 

 

Monday Night

 

Minnesota at Seattle -3 1/2 45

 

 

 

8 home dogs this week

 

NO/Tampa Under 56

 

LAR -3

 

SEA - 3.5

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So I am thinking about a poll. That would be how many games does Jay Gruden need to win to keep his job? A-0 B-1 C-2 D-3 E-4???

 

I will go on record and say C-2 Which would include either a win over an NFC East opponent the Eagles or the Giants? And the Redskins record would be a respectable 8-8 with a washed up QB off of the street.

 

How weird it would be for them to sneak into the last Wild Card spot with the Vikings and the Panthers seemingly in a death spiral? The Eagles and the Cowboys will be fighting for the East Crown, my edge goes to the Cowboys. The Eagles still have issues on defense but Wentz seems to be getting in a groove.

 

The Redskins will more than likely miss the playoffs with an injury-riddled lineup and dysfunction in the front office, the "Alabama-gate" thing with the team supposedly getting an endorsement from teammates is being washed out in the media as some sort of cop-out pass the buck thing handed down by Bruce Allen, with poor Doug Williams having to justify his signing, not in a very coherent manner.

 

My prediction is the Redskins do not win another game, Gruden gets the ax, and let's all pray on this, Bruce Allen leaves by a very public firing. I can not stand the guy. Gruden is ok, besides who else wants to come to this franchise with this kind of General Manager? He should be with the other Gruden back in Oakland.

 

Gruden has had to deal with an incredible amount of injuries, but some are saying his training camps have not much structure, and players are given too much leeway. I don't know if all of that has merit, but the Redskins seem to be one of the most injury-riddled teams in the NFL, combine that with the fact we never seem to be able to make adjustments at halftime, a Joe Gibbs trademark, and the sign of efficient and good coaching skills. Plus the Redskins are not very disciplined on the field when it comes to controlling game flow. Their 2-minute drill is pathetic.

 

My prediction Gruden gets fired they will not finish 8-8.

Wrong Gruden lol. As for the one you actually are talking about I would say F: They will give him another year considering the injuries.

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can I be heard from down here in the basement? HELLO???

 

 

My week 14 picks

 

I like the Bears getting points at home. but that is not a pick of mine.

 

 

- Green Bay -5 1/2 Rodgers has owned the Falcons in his career. Falcons lost last week to the Ravens.......AT HOME!

- Philadelphia +3 1/2 Love the points in this divisional match. Wentz 7-1 against the NFC East teams the last two seasons. Carson plus 3 and the hook please.

- San Fran +4 Why? I just closed my eyes and pointed at the games.

 

 

I am curious to see the standings after this week.

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Well this week's cheering gal will involve snow falling.

 

See ladies and gents we here in Asheville, NC are getting 20 inches of the stuff starting tomorrow.

I have been playing 27 holes a week of late. I won't be able to see the courses until 10 days from now.

I'm fortunate to have access to an indoor Trackman equipped hitting bay. That does help.

Anyway I guess I am putting down the new AP3's and using a shovel for the days ahead.

 

yaa hooo my god that is a lot of snow, and that's coming from a Detroit man too!

 

Pack gets it DONE !

 

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For the record I'm fine with taking the 0-3 week one, I was more concerned with playing golf and getting drunk at the diamondbacks and arizona state game than making my picks so I don't have a problem with the loses.

 

Balt +6.5- Their secondary is still elite and they should be able to run the ball against the dreadful chiefs run d with Lamar and control enough clock to keep it close, I'll probably see if I can get the full 7 before I bet it but I still like it.

 

Oakland +10.5- Tomlin is terrible ats in these situations, he's a rah rah guy and that's the key part of his coaching really has trouble getting his teams up for games like this.

 

Minn +3.5- Seattle is running well but I think they're due for regression with their +11 turnover differential, they also are getting outgained by their opponents by almost a half yard per play. Minn is outgaining opponents by 0.3 ypp as well. Going against Seattle at home in primetime is tough but I'll take it with the hook.

 

Bonus lean: This is gross but this is a terrible spot for the Chargers, coming off a huge sunday night win and then they have to go to the Chiefs on Thursday. Bengals +14

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Week 14 Lines for picks

 

Thursday

Jacksonville at Tenn. -4 1/2 37

 

 

Sunday

 

Baltimore at KC -6 1/2 53

Indy at Houston -5 49

Carolina -2 at Cleveland 47

Atlanta at Green Bay -5 1/2 49 1/2

New Orleans -8 at Tampa 56

NY Jets at Buffalo -3 1/2 38 1/2

New England -7 1/2 at Miami 47

LA Rams -3 at Chicago 52

NY Giants -3 1/2 at Washington 41

Denver -4 at San Fran 45 1/2

Cincy at LA Chargers -14 48

Detroit -3 at Arizona 40 1/2

Philadelphia at Dallas -3 1/2 43

Pittsburgh -10 1/2 at Oakland 51 1/2

 

 

Monday Night

 

Minnesota at Seattle -3 1/2 45

 

 

 

8 home dogs this week

 

 

 

Well well well.

Here we are Week 14!

A good time to reflect on all the mistakes I have made this year, Which btw make this even more fun.

I might have been a little hasty about putting all of the blame on Mike McCarthy, he was to old school but still produced a good body of work, he needs to use more analytics to move forward with a new team. McCarthy being a QB guru put too much on the QB with his game planning. They had elite receiver corps which won on isolation routes and Rodgers laser-like accuracy. McCarthy never made adjustments as the receiver talent dwindled. I think I was a little salty about Aaron Rodgers not really having a great attitude when it comes to doing his job, to be honest at this point"prima donna" Rodgers kinda sucks. Repeat after me he is not as good as Tom Brady. The last Super Bowl he won I can not even remember. He is a tool. I loved him for his awesome arm, but that was my mistake, another overrated boob is Matt Ryan, thank God for Julio Jones and Roddy White in the past with awesome Offensive coordinators and Rb's. I think Green Bay beats Atlanta in this meaningless game though. Staying away.

 

Touch is probably waiting for me to rail on Cam Newton, but my medical sources have said he's been playing with a bad shoulder which may require some attention in the offseason, and he is also hamstrung by some weird offensive game planning. The jury is still out on Cam. Cam is a gamer and I would take him any day on my team. Cam does not play 2-way football. and Funchess is not doing much this year. The Panthers are a mess but I do not think Cam deserves the lions share of the blame, unlike Aaron the b**** Rodgers. I am over Aaron Rodgers, over Matt Ryan, over the Red rifle, over Big Ben, over J Flacco, not really enamored with their outlooks moving forward. Might also be over Brady at the end of the year, but I think he might have one more run left in him. I am over Gronk, over L Fournette, over L McCoy, over AJ Green, over D Thomas, over S Watkins, over G Olson, over J Ajayi, over Alex Smith, I hope he is going to be ok health wise but still over him even before the horrific injury, over C Keenum, over R Tannehill & B Bortles never was on them but nonetheless. Jury still out on Kirk Cousins but the teller window might close at the end of the year. We are all Over The "human pinata" do I even need to mention him? I think it goes without saying but he has 2 rings and I must not talk about him in this column LoL out of respect for his past achievements... cough! Uggh!

 

One team and one QB I really like is the Houston Texans and DeShaun Watson, this guy is all heart, and all about playing smart. Combine that with a really above average defense. Give me the Texans -5 at home against a banged-up Colts team that has done well with the resurgence of Andrew Luck, Marlon Mack might not play and that limits their offensive game script. Colts were shut out last week that's a red flag.

 

I have to believe the Saints want some payback for their last game. Brees shows up in Tampa with a renewed focus.... a big win is my bet. Saints -8 seems "pretty juicy Lucy", rain or no rain!

 

I have told many people that I think Dallas is a legitimate team this year, I was laughed at by my brother before the Cooper trade, and even after. It's time to put up or shut up... the half and the hook is not enough to scare me, the renewed last-minute push to win 2 in a row. It was between this game and taking the home dog the Cardinals +3. I think Cardinals might win that game, but I will take the more exciting game with the most risk because it's the year of living dangerously. Cowboys -3.5 I am not afraid of that hook

 

Ok on the Upset trail I like the Redskins, Jets, Cardinals they suck but you just never know.

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Hey Now.....it's a change in my weekly tally. I did not go 1-2 like always this week.

I almost had 'em all, but the Eagles just couldn't get it done.

 

Record is

2-1 for week 14 for Commish , your proud basement dweller.

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48246996_2256425491070793_7557585145948012544_n.jpg?_nc_cat=1&_nc_ht=scontent-atl3-1.xx&oh=092ffd6f72a8915e6b0b2588a646815a&oe=5CB16EEB

Callaway        Paradym  Hzrdus Silver 

Callaway        Epic Flash 3 & 5 fw  Even Flow Green   
TM                   M4   4 & 5 hybrid  Atmos 

TM                  P790  6-PW Recoil ESX

PING               Glide 3.0  50, 56, 60  

TM                  Spider cs  Golf Pride P Only Blue Star 

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On behalf of all Chiefs fans, we would like to formally thank Oakland, San Francisco, Miami, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati at least you tried.

 

However, I will go on the record, right now, and say that I'll be taking the Chargers and whatever points they're getting for the upcoming week. Chiefs are scraping by for wins and our defense is embarrassing. Short week (for both teams) and numerous new injuries, I don't see us covering, or even winning for that matter. I think the Chargers come into Arrowhead on Thursday and get the win.

 

I hope I'm wrong (and based on my winning %, that's pretty likely) but this one does not feel good to me.

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