NFL weekly pick's contest (season long) 2018

[adam667220]

He really might be a curse. Or just horrible at his job.

 

 

[Qqq123xx]

Well the Pats got THAT game out of the way. First missed under 45(42)yd. FG, first missed XP of the year, Brady not throwing ball away at half, sacked and no TO to kick FG. Pats D that looked like a slice of King Kong brand swiss cheese. And all that could of added up to a Pats and Moi's win. And I seem to be missing a play. Mmmmmmm

 

Week 14 1-2

 

Season 23-18-1

 

 

Forgot the tie, again I believe.

[CrabDaddy]

Anyway, I'm playing the hot hands...

The Cowboys are now atop the NFC East. They kicked off their 4 game win streak by beating the Eagles in Philly. Amari Cooper seems to have made a bigger difference in Dallas than he did in Oakland. Dallas -3.5

Revert to the mean prediction: The green-clad grinches keep the Salvation Army pot from filling up. Eagles win by 1.

 

The Broncos are on a 3 game win streak. Last week they were road favorites and they didn't let me down. Phillip Lindsay is having a helluva rookie season for an undrafted player and getting better as the season goes on. The 49ers moved ahead of the Cardinals ... for the top 2019 draft pick. Denver -4

Revert to the mean prediction: Don't bet against the pride of Southern Mississippi. Nick Mullens George Kittle lights it up and San Fran wins by 2 FGs.

 

The Giants have won 3 of their last 4 games. It's like they finally figured out that having all these talented players at RB and WR and an experienced QB is an advantage. "If Mark Sanchez can stay healthy..." is not how Redskins fans want to start a sentence, but here they are. New York -3.5

Revert to the mean prediction: The Giants have not played a game as road favorites before this week. They buckle under the pressure while Mark Sanchez Adrian Peterson finds his old form. The safeties may catch as many balls as Odell Beckham in this one. Skins by 1 in a punters duel.

 

2-1 Could be worse... could be raining.

 

Denver as a road favorite 2 weeks in a row was asking too much. Especially facing the amazing George Kittle - behind only Travis Kelce in TE receiving yards.

Thank goodness for a fortunate tip of the ball in OT of the Cowboys-Eagles game.

Did the Giants think the season started in November? 4-1 since Halloween.

 

21-18-3 overall

[knock it close]

For the record I'm fine with taking the 0-3 week one, I was more concerned with playing golf and getting drunk at the diamondbacks and arizona state game than making my picks so I don't have a problem with the loses.

 

Balt +6.5- Their secondary is still elite and they should be able to run the ball against the dreadful chiefs run d with Lamar and control enough clock to keep it close, I'll probably see if I can get the full 7 before I bet it but I still like it.

 

Oakland +10.5- Tomlin is terrible ats in these situations, he's a rah rah guy and that's the key part of his coaching really has trouble getting his teams up for games like this.

 

Minn +3.5- Seattle is running well but I think they're due for regression with their +11 turnover differential, they also are getting outgained by their opponents by almost a half yard per play. Minn is outgaining opponents by 0.3 ypp as well. Going against Seattle at home in primetime is tough but I'll take it with the hook.

 

Bonus lean: This is gross but this is a terrible spot for the Chargers, coming off a huge sunday night win and then they have to go to the Chiefs on Thursday. Bengals +14

 

Tomlin now 13-30 ats on the road against sub .500 teams

[touch]

Week 15 Lines for picks

only 3 weeks left in the contest

Thursday

LA Chargers at KC -2 1/2 53

 

Sunday

Houston -6 at NY Jets 41

Cleveland at Denver -3 45 1/2

Miami at Minnesota -8 44

Oakland at Cincinnati -3 45 1/2

Tampa at Baltimore -8 47

Dallas at Indy -3 47

Detroit at Buffalo -2 1/2 38 1/2

Green Bay at Chicago -5 1/2 45

Tennessee at NY Giants -2 1/2 43 1/2

Washington at Jacksonville -7 36 1/2

Arizona at Atlanta -9 44

Seattle -5 1/2 at San Francisco 44 1/2

N. England -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh 49 1/2

Philadelphia at LA Rams -9 54

 

Monday Night

New Orleans -6 1/2 at Carolina 52

 

[adam667220]

Touch, you're killing me with these lines. I already committed to taking the LAC on the road against KC, but was hoping for more than 2.5. Would have preferred the 3.5 I've seen. I'm usually wrong, so this will be good reverse psychology to get the real win.

 

Then we're going to take NO -6.5 and SEA -5.5.

[adam667220]

Updated standings. Starting to think maybe we should charge knockitclose with those three losses just to keep it competitive. lol

 

 

 

Updated ATS:

 

 

[Petethreeput]

Week 15 Lines for picks

only 3 weeks left in the contest

Thursday

LA Chargers at KC -2 1/2 53

 

Sunday

Houston -6 at NY Jets 41

Cleveland at Denver -3 45 1/2

Miami at Minnesota -8 44

Oakland at Cincinnati -3 45 1/2

Tampa at Baltimore -8 47

Dallas at Indy -3 47

Detroit at Buffalo -2 1/2 38 1/2

Green Bay at Chicago -5 1/2 45

Tennessee at NY Giants -2 1/2 43 1/2

Washington at Jacksonville -7 36 1/2

Arizona at Atlanta -9 44

Seattle -5 1/2 at San Francisco 44 1/2

N. England -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh 49 1/2

Philadelphia at LA Rams -9 54

 

Monday Night

New Orleans -6 1/2 at Carolina 52

 

 

I was sitting at St Alphonso's Pancake Breakfast, and who should appear, but Capt. Beefheart who famously prefers the "Prince of Foods, the muffin." Anyway, I was abusing the sausage patty thinking about the abysmal state of my home town team. Heck, even Rocky is getting into it. And, he is a very nice guy, though apparently his wife is rubbing off on him. In a serendipitous way, the wife was less than polite so the family refused to sell them the house even though they offered the most money. It just doesn't ever pay to be rude.

I am now 2-12 over the last 4 weeks, and my fall is not unlike the Steelers, Jags, Panthers, or Skins. I just can't claim injuries or bad officiating. I claim ignorance.

I want to be the only person in America interested in the Det/Buf game. If I do the math correctly, if these offensive juggernauts tie 19-19 I win the over. So, knowing nothing about either team, I will take the over figuring there has to be a touchdown or two. I suspect this will end up in the losing side of my column because I really don't know, but there it is.

I want to get my losses out of the way early, and my heart has been ripped out of my chest, so I am picking against my Steelers. I just don't see the Steelers trying to run the ball anymore, I see AB just not getting open, I see Belichick figuring out how to eviscerate a defense that simply isn't that good on the back end, and I always see Tom Brady as an amazing QB. The fans dont even seem to care anymore. Somehow, the once corporate franchise (like the NE Pats) has become the home of prima donnas and I feel bad for the linemen who bust their butts every game so the fancy pants "skill" players can give 60% and make more money. If I ever meet Maurkice Pouncey or David DeCastro, I am buying them a beer.

I am taking the Pats to win the game, and I am taking the over as well.

I have been hitting on the sim since the winter started and trying to get the top end of my bag fixed for gapping. Well, I have a 25 yd gap between hybrid and 5i. If you're married you can already see the loving eye roll when I mention it is imperative i get this fixed by buying a new club (or two) depending on how I decide to divvy up the distances. This is a bet I know I will win, I know she will say, "You NEED (accusatorily) another club? Will this finally be THE one that makes you a better golfer?"

[touch]

[Qqq123xx]

Week 15 Lines for picks

only 3 weeks left in the contest

Thursday

LA Chargers at KC -2 1/2 53

 

Sunday

Houston -6 at NY Jets 41

Cleveland at Denver -3 45 1/2

Miami at Minnesota -8 44

Oakland at Cincinnati -3 45 1/2

Tampa at Baltimore -8 47

Dallas at Indy -3 47

Detroit at Buffalo -2 1/2 38 1/2

Green Bay at Chicago -5 1/2 45

Tennessee at NY Giants -2 1/2 43 1/2

Washington at Jacksonville -7 36 1/2

Arizona at Atlanta -9 44

Seattle -5 1/2 at San Francisco 44 1/2

N. England -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh 49 1/2

Philadelphia at LA Rams -9 54

 

Monday Night

New Orleans -6 1/2 at Carolina 52

 

 

I was sitting at St Alphonso's Pancake Breakfast, and who should appear, but Capt. Beefheart who famously prefers the "Prince of Foods, the muffin." Anyway, I was abusing the sausage patty thinking about the abysmal state of my home town team. Heck, even Rocky is getting into it. And, he is a very nice guy, though apparently his wife is rubbing off on him. In a serendipitous way, the wife was less than polite so the family refused to sell them the house even though they offered the most money. It just doesn't ever pay to be rude.

I am now 2-12 over the last 4 weeks, and my fall is not unlike the Steelers, Jags, Panthers, or Skins. I just can't claim injuries or bad officiating. I claim ignorance.

I want to be the only person in America interested in the Det/Buf game. If I do the math correctly, if these offensive juggernauts tie 19-19 I win the over. So, knowing nothing about either team, I will take the over figuring there has to be a touchdown or two. I suspect this will end up in the losing side of my column because I really don't know, but there it is.

I want to get my losses out of the way early, and my heart has been ripped out of my chest, so I am picking against my Steelers. I just don't see the Steelers trying to run the ball anymore, I see AB just not getting open, I see Belichick figuring out how to eviscerate a defense that simply isn't that good on the back end, and I always see Tom Brady as an amazing QB. The fans dont even seem to care anymore. Somehow, the once corporate franchise (like the NE Pats) has become the home of prima donnas and I feel bad for the linemen who bust their butts every game so the fancy pants "skill" players can give 60% and make more money. If I ever meet Maurkice Pouncey or David DeCastro, I am buying them a beer.

I am taking the Pats to win the game, and I am taking the over as well.

I have been hitting on the sim since the winter started and trying to get the top end of my bag fixed for gapping. Well, I have a 25 yd gap between hybrid and 5i. If you're married you can already see the loving eye roll when I mention it is imperative i get this fixed by buying a new club (or two) depending on how I decide to divvy up the distances. This is a bet I know I will win, I know she will say, "You NEED (accusatorily) another club? Will this finally be THE one that makes you a better golfer?"

That vaunted Fish running game racked up 21/189yds against the Pats. You might want to reconsider. Just sayin.'

[CrabDaddy]

Thursday

LA Chargers at KC -2 1/2 53

 

Sunday

Houston -6 at NY Jets 41

Cleveland at Denver -3 45 1/2

Miami at Minnesota -8 44

Oakland at Cincinnati -3 45 1/2

Tampa at Baltimore -8 47

Dallas at Indy -3 47

Detroit at Buffalo -2 1/2 38 1/2

Green Bay at Chicago -5 1/2 45

Tennessee at NY Giants -2 1/2 43 1/2

Washington at Jacksonville -7 36 1/2

Arizona at Atlanta -9 44

Seattle -5 1/2 at San Francisco 44 1/2

N. England -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh 49 1/2

Philadelphia at LA Rams -9 54

 

Monday Night

New Orleans -6 1/2 at Carolina 52

 

Dear Lord! What a mess this is! Minnesota can't do anything vs Seattle but are 8 point favorites against a team that just beat NE?! Jacksonville is a 7 pt favorite vs anybody?! Buffalo is a favorite... period. Indy loses 0-6 vs the Jags, then snaps the Texans 9 game win streak, now they're a favorite vs the rejuvenated Cowboys?! I'm not sure what to make of all that. I'm staying away from games that are too good to be true or don't make sense, lol.

 

Speaking of drinking...

An American, an Irishman, and an Italian are debating about which is the best bar in the world.

Irishman: "Aye, Paddy's Pub in County Cork is the best bar there is. Overlooks a beautiful golf course and the English Channel. All weekend long, if you buy two beers, the third one is on the house."

 

Italian: "Hmmm, that sound's very nice, but Giuseppi's in Venice is even better. You can sit at a table right on the canal. For every beer you buy, the bartender buys you another, and they serve you the best linguini free of charge."

 

Both the American and Irishman nod in approval. "That's a very good bar". "Aye"

 

American: "They both sound nice, but Bob's Bar and Grill just outside of Des Moines has got to be the best bar there is. It doesn't have good scenery - in fact, it's a little hole in the wall next to a factory, but they give you free beer and, after you drink about 4 or 5, you can go in a back room and get laid."

 

The Irishman and the Italian are a little stunned, but agree that Bob's Bar and Grill must truly be the best bar in the world. After thinking about it, though, the Italian becomes a little suspicious of such a generous deal.

 

Italian: "So, you have been to Bob's Bar and Grill?"

American: "Well, I haven't, but my wife goes there all the time."

 

I like the Giants -2.5 Derrick Henry doubled his fantasy points total in one game. I don't see a repeat of that happening. G-men keep rolling.

Chicago -5.5 Da Bears are the real deal. The post-McCarthy Packers beat a dismal Atlanta team, but the ... what's the opposite of a honeymoon?... comes to an end at Soldier Field.

KC -2.5 The Chiefs had a scare last week, but without Gordon and Ekeler, the Chargers won't be grinding it out via the run.

[Petethreeput]

Week 15 Lines for picks

only 3 weeks left in the contest

Thursday

LA Chargers at KC -2 1/2 53

 

Sunday

Houston -6 at NY Jets 41

Cleveland at Denver -3 45 1/2

Miami at Minnesota -8 44

Oakland at Cincinnati -3 45 1/2

Tampa at Baltimore -8 47

Dallas at Indy -3 47

Detroit at Buffalo -2 1/2 38 1/2

Green Bay at Chicago -5 1/2 45

Tennessee at NY Giants -2 1/2 43 1/2

Washington at Jacksonville -7 36 1/2

Arizona at Atlanta -9 44

Seattle -5 1/2 at San Francisco 44 1/2

N. England -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh 49 1/2

Philadelphia at LA Rams -9 54

 

Monday Night

New Orleans -6 1/2 at Carolina 52

 

 

I was sitting at St Alphonso's Pancake Breakfast, and who should appear, but Capt. Beefheart who famously prefers the "Prince of Foods, the muffin." Anyway, I was abusing the sausage patty thinking about the abysmal state of my home town team. Heck, even Rocky is getting into it. And, he is a very nice guy, though apparently his wife is rubbing off on him. In a serendipitous way, the wife was less than polite so the family refused to sell them the house even though they offered the most money. It just doesn't ever pay to be rude.

I am now 2-12 over the last 4 weeks, and my fall is not unlike the Steelers, Jags, Panthers, or Skins. I just can't claim injuries or bad officiating. I claim ignorance.

I want to be the only person in America interested in the Det/Buf game. If I do the math correctly, if these offensive juggernauts tie 19-19 I win the over. So, knowing nothing about either team, I will take the over figuring there has to be a touchdown or two. I suspect this will end up in the losing side of my column because I really don't know, but there it is.

I want to get my losses out of the way early, and my heart has been ripped out of my chest, so I am picking against my Steelers. I just don't see the Steelers trying to run the ball anymore, I see AB just not getting open, I see Belichick figuring out how to eviscerate a defense that simply isn't that good on the back end, and I always see Tom Brady as an amazing QB. The fans dont even seem to care anymore. Somehow, the once corporate franchise (like the NE Pats) has become the home of prima donnas and I feel bad for the linemen who bust their butts every game so the fancy pants "skill" players can give 60% and make more money. If I ever meet Maurkice Pouncey or David DeCastro, I am buying them a beer.

I am taking the Pats to win the game, and I am taking the over as well.

I have been hitting on the sim since the winter started and trying to get the top end of my bag fixed for gapping. Well, I have a 25 yd gap between hybrid and 5i. If you're married you can already see the loving eye roll when I mention it is imperative i get this fixed by buying a new club (or two) depending on how I decide to divvy up the distances. This is a bet I know I will win, I know she will say, "You NEED (accusatorily) another club? Will this finally be THE one that makes you a better golfer?"

That vaunted Fish running game racked up 21/189yds against the Pats. You might want to reconsider. Just sayin.'

I hope you are correct, but they ground out 50 yds against the 31st ranked rushing D last week. Certainly my recent picks almost insure you are correct.

[1puttTUT]

1-2 last week. 23-15-1 now

[GolfGirlLizie]

Week 15 picks

 

Tennessee + 2 1/2

 

Arizona +9

 

New Orleans -6 1/2

:golfer:

[adam667220]

Touch, you're killing me with these lines. I already committed to taking the LAC on the road against KC, but was hoping for more than 2.5. Would have preferred the 3.5 I've seen. I'm usually wrong, so this will be good reverse psychology to get the real win.

 

Then we're going to take NO -6.5 and SEA -5.5.

 

I'm a no-good rotten liar. I can't stick with the LAC pick. Getting a measly 2.5, likely their 3rd string RB, in Arrowhead, bye week on the line, WITH (allegedly) Eric Berry returning....I can't do it. I'm sorry.

 

I'm going to take ARI +9 instead. #14 vs #15 in the NFC facing off but one of them is getting 9? ATL on a 5 game losing streak and has only beat one team (the Skins) by more than 9 this season. I'll take ARI to at least cover, even if they lose.

[1puttTUT]

KC -2.5

Cle +3

TB vs Balt under 47

[doctoro]

I am all for the promotion of the Premiere Lacrosse League. A true American sport. Just found out about this from the local sports junkies radio show. Lacrosse is a great sport. Excited to see these guys get paid to do what they have done throughout high school and college. https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/pro/mll/report-paul-rabil-starting-his-own-professional-lacrosse-league

 

Last Week 2-1

 

An incredible course of events transpiring in week 14. The Miami Miracle was at the top of the list. And the formula for winning outdoors in cold weather still has not changed much. Unless you can throw the ball like Brady, Rodgers, and Brett Favre you have to be able to play defense and run the ball in December. I really enjoyed watching the Bears unleash the "Kraken" on the small handed Jared Goff in the Windy City. What in the hell was Jon Gruden doing letting Mack get away?

The Ravens almost did the unthinkable with incredible pressure defense on Mahomes and the gimpy Tyreek Hill without the services of Kareem Hunt the Chiefs seem to be a little more vulnerable to teams with defenses like the Ravens.

But Mahomes showing why he's worthy of rookie of the year and MVP considerations performed some miraculous throws in the clutch when the Chiefs really needed him, Hint: Travis Kelce and Hill better stay healthy, Kelvin Benjamin better realize this is his last tango if he doesn't play up to his hype coming out of the draft in Carolina, but Mahomes has my vote after watching that game.

What has happened in New England? Belichick getting outfoxed by none other than his alter ego, Bill Belichick? What in the hell was the "tin man" doing playing safety on that last play? Check me if I am wrong but I starting to have some doubts about the chemistry in New England??? Defense seems porous and I think Belichick is becoming a little too long in the tooth. Brady starting to show his age and injuries seem to have taken their toll on key players like Gronkowski, Burkhead, even Edelman has kinda looked a half a step slower. This game is one that the Patriots have always struggled at winning down in the humid weather of Miami and the on again off again Dolphins. So I guess at home I expect New England to make it right again.

 

And then in one of the truly worst games to see on the idiot box last week, was the one and only Dan Snyder owned Washington Redskins. Ugghhh! It was simply a debacle of epic proportions. What happened to the defense we saw earlier in the year? I can give Mark Sanchez a pass, he sucks but we signed him and trotted him out there with an injury-riddled offensive line. Game Over! At least Josh Johnson managed to play himself into a starters role next week. They have the Jags on the road. Should be interesting. Or maybe not so much.

[adam667220]

I don't know anyone else's opinion, but I hate Stephen A Smith. Which makes this that much funnier.

 

 

In less than a minute, his "analysis" of the Chargers/Chiefs game he refers to Ware (who has been ruled out), then talks about the "San Diego" Chargers offense and the matchup between Hunter Henry (out the entire season) and Derrick Johnson (not even on the team). WOW. Guess someone shouldn't be allowed to talk off the cuff without cue cards.

[touch]

[knock it close]

I think I have to take KC -2.5. Home favs on Thursdays hit at >60% clip and under a fg is huge

 

 

Det +2.5

SF +5.5

[CrabDaddy]

But Mahomes showing why he's worthy of rookie of the year and MVP considerations

I‘ll bet $1K that Mahomes won’t win rookie of the year.

[Qqq123xx]

Great game yesterday. And Sat. Pro and AA football. Will be prepping the recliner tomorrow.

 

And week 15 picks.....

 

Seattle -5.5

 

N.E. -2.5

 

N.O. -6.5

[doctoro]

But Mahomes showing why he's worthy of rookie of the year and MVP considerations

I‘ll bet $1K that Mahomes won’t win rookie of the year.

 

I just got "Stephen A Smithed"...LoL That's right he's not a rookie, but for all intents and purposes, I would still give it to him. Nice toe drag on that one Sir Crab Daddy. First down!

[doctoro]

 

POINT OF ORDER POINT OF ORDER

 

The Vikings came to the table hard for Kirk Cousins. But they should have also put more thought into their ultra-conservative coaching staff. Their offensive coordinator just got fired and while most people blame Cousins for their inability to win prime time games, the running game for Minnesota is too predictable and they have Cousins throwing on the run because he always has 3rd and longs to deal with after the check down game is not reliable enough to sustain drives.

With the Redskins and questionable receiver talent, he was 7th in the league on passes of 20 yards or more. The creativity of the Minnesota offense is almost nonexistent. Yes, he is not a big game winner at this point. But when he was with the Redskins he was the best they have had in decades. And now with the Vikings, there surely is a growing process that needs to take place. Thank God they fired their offensive coordinator but let's see how all of that shakes out. I will not be surprised if he rebounds next year.

Matt Stafford was the benchmark for Qb signings and now Cousins raised the bar. It will keep going up from there. Pay the field generals or be destined to the pits of doom Dilly Dilly. Eli Manning

[CrabDaddy]

But Mahomes showing why he's worthy of rookie of the year and MVP considerations

I‘ll bet $1K that Mahomes won’t win rookie of the year.

 

I just got "Stephen A Smithed"...LoL That's right he's not a rookie, but for all intents and purposes, I would still give it to him. Nice toe drag on that one Sir Crab Daddy. First down!

Sorry, I couldn't resist. I agree that it seems like he came out of nowhere. He's having an amazing season by any standard, then consider his lack of experience, and it's truly unprecedented.

[CrabDaddy]

I thought Cousins was your guy... or was that only when he wore burgundy and gold? ... or was it only because he seemed like an amazing upgrade to your (((all-time favorite)))? :derisive:

[CrabDaddy]

KC gets out to a 2 TD lead, manages to maintain that cushion into the 4th qtr, I fall asleep, I wake up, and they're interviewing Phillip Rivers. WTF?!

 

I thought that game was a safe pick, but starting the week with an L.

[adam667220]

KC gets out to a 2 TD lead, manages to maintain that cushion into the 4th qtr, I fall asleep, I wake up, and they're interviewing Phillip Rivers. WTF?!

 

I thought that game was a safe pick, but starting the week with an L.

 

Unfortunately, no lead is safe with this garbage defense. Can't wait to lose another home playoff game, like every other year.

[1puttTUT]

Stupid chiefs! You have no business blowing that game ?

[doctoro]

KC gets out to a 2 TD lead, manages to maintain that cushion into the 4th qtr, I fall asleep, I wake up, and they're interviewing Phillip Rivers. WTF?!

 

I thought that game was a safe pick, but starting the week with an L.

 

Unfortunately, no lead is safe with this garbage defense. Can't wait to lose another home playoff game, like every other year.

 

I think both teams are having awesome years, but I have to give a slight edge to the fiery Rivers he is destined to get to the big dance. If they don't rush Melvin Gordon back to soon and can get home high school field advantage they might have half of a chance. The Chiefs have given us a load of highlights and Mahomes is a great addition to the youth movement and the future of the NFL. I fear injuries and losses at RB might be a little much to overcome in the playoffs. T Hill needs that burst and I think he's nursing an ankle right now.

 

ALL that said it a real shame the referees wanted to take over that game. I have never seen so many missed calls, and makeup calls in one game! I love both those teams right now. Won't be upset if either team can knock off the Patriots in the playoffs. Andy Reid and Phillip RIvers deserve a ring so either team gets in I am happy.