A scratch golfer's average round

Obee · Jan 8, 2019 2:28pm

dpark wrote:

I think the delta is at least 5 strokes IMO, and probably up to 10, but this is based on someone who plays some level of tournament golf. I have played in a bunch of USGA and state-level mid-am and am qualifiers and never shot anywhere near my index, both on courses I have played and never seen before. It isn't like I expected to get out of qualifying, but I wanted to see what I would do, under tournament pressure, and on a course set up very hard. I never got the dreaded "letter" (Please do apply again, you suck), so I roughly stayed within 10 strokes of the course rating +/- (there were other aspects to getting a "letter" but that was the main one IIRC).

As for the 2nd point, personally I felt that I had played in enough top-am events to be comfortable with a "tour setup" (we can quibble if a qualifier setup for the USGA is easier than a Pro-Am setup, if playing from the back tees, not the am tees). It isn't a matter of "adjusting" to the setup, it's having the ability to play well on the setup. As well as I like to believe I strike the ball, I just don't generate "tour-level" spin on my approach shots. So while I can hit shots on a "regular" course and get the ball close to the pin and make a couple of birdies, I have to play differently on a tour setup, much more conservatively. I can't aim at pins, especially tucked pins, I have to aim at the "safe" area of the green, which doesn't leave a lot of opps for birdies. Plus the additional length means I am hitting at least one more club into a given hole so my landing trajectory is lower. This is also how I play in qualifiers, trying to avoid the dreaded double, but minimizing my opps at birdie.

Wait, are you saying that you have played some tournament golf and never shot anywhere near your index in a tournament round as a guy who plays between a +2 and a 2?

And are you saying that a standard tour course set-up is 5 to 10 strokes tougher than a "regular" set-up course?

I'm confused.....

dpark · Jan 8, 2019 5:22pm

Obee wrote:

Wait, are you saying that you have played some tournament golf and never shot anywhere near your index in a tournament round as a guy who plays between a +2 and a 2?

And are you saying that a standard tour course set-up is 5 to 10 strokes tougher than a "regular" set-up course?

I'm confused.....

What's confusing? My index is not a "tournament" index, it is my index from following the USGA rules of golf comprised from my last 20 rounds.

My lowest two tournament rounds in the past year are a 76 (par 72, CR 72.2, slope 133, differential 3.2) and a 76 (par 72, slope 72.5, slope 135, differential 2.9). Prior to last year I had some 75s (differentials of 3.3 and 2.4). And while both courses are tough, neither compared to playing Poppy Hills from the PGA tee boxes with their rough, green firmness and pin locations. My index during the last year averaged around 2.0.

So call me an underachiever, but correct, I have not shot under my index in tournament golf. Don't see why that is such a huge surprise. My tournament index would probably be around a 3.5-4.0 (for this past year).

As Bobby Jones said, there is golf and then there is tournament golf. My index is correct for a regular round of golf just about anywhere. There isn't a "tournament index" for golfers (unless they are looking for cheaters). I play worse in tournaments. I wish I didn't but I do. Many years ago I attributed to nerves, but I believe I have overcome that when I won my club championship a few years ago (when I was a +1.7) and my score for 2 rounds was EVEN par. So yes, even then I did not shoot under my index.

You must be an outstandingly consistent golfer, immune to any sort of pressure to think that one should shoot under their index in tournament conditions at least once in a while. I am not one of them. Sorry to disappoint you.

Obee · Jan 8, 2019 6:50pm

dpark wrote:

Obee wrote:

Wait, are you saying that you have played some tournament golf and never shot anywhere near your index in a tournament round as a guy who plays between a +2 and a 2?

And are you saying that a standard tour course set-up is 5 to 10 strokes tougher than a "regular" set-up course?

I'm confused.....

What's confusing? My index is not a "tournament" index, it is my index from following the USGA rules of golf comprised from my last 20 rounds.

My lowest two tournament rounds in the past year are a 76 (par 72, CR 72.2, slope 133, differential 3.2) and a 76 (par 72, slope 72.5, slope 135, differential 2.9). Prior to last year I had some 75s (differentials of 3.3 and 2.4). And while both courses are tough, neither compared to playing Poppy Hills from the PGA tee boxes with their rough, green firmness and pin locations. My index during the last year averaged around 2.0.

So call me an underachiever, but correct, I have not shot under my index in tournament golf. Don't see why that is such a huge surprise. My tournament index would probably be around a 3.5-4.0 (for this past year).

As Bobby Jones said, there is golf and then there is tournament golf. My index is correct for a regular round of golf just about anywhere. There isn't a "tournament index" for golfers (unless they are looking for cheaters). I play worse in tournaments. I wish I didn't but I do. Many years ago I attributed to nerves, but I believe I have overcome that when I won my club championship a few years ago (when I was a +1.7) and my score for 2 rounds was EVEN par. So yes, even then I did not shoot under my index.

You must be an outstandingly consistent golfer, immune to any sort of pressure to think that one should shoot under their index in tournament conditions at least once in a while. I am not one of them. Sorry to disappoint you.

So sorry, I did not mean to disparage at all. I was just not understanding where you were coming from and wasn't sure if I was reading you correctly. Earlier you said something about "not breaking 80," but that was on a "Tour set-up," so I thought maybe this was a similar misunderstanding on my part.

It's interesting to me, though, that you have gotten your index down as low as +1.7, but have yet to shoot near your index in a tournament. Definitely something to start a thread on. :-)

3woodvt · Jan 9, 2019 7:26pm

Even par for two days in amateur golf tournaments beats 95% of other am.

MtlJeff · Jan 9, 2019 7:49pm

3woodvt wrote:

Even par for two days in amateur golf tournaments beats 95% of other am.

I would definitely agree in terms of Mid-Am.

In the pure amateur world , the Juniors ruin everything LOL. You still might be right that you'll beat 95%. But the ones you aren't beating are probably juniors. At my club it's like a revolving door, they go off to college and then the following year there's a few new dudes who grew like 5 inches overnight between 16 and 17 , and are driving 320yds and shooting 68. Those punks!

dg_1983 · Jan 10, 2019 1:37am

Always cracks me up reading about "slope" "rating" "non tournament index" " tournament index"

Just play to par guys. The rest is just noise.

Average UK scratch is gonna be somewhere around 10shots behind your pros on longer setups. Shorter setups will be closer.

I'm fascinated by "scratch" being held as some sore of benchmark against the pro game. Everyone gets its not that good right? Your looking at +5 and better to be anywhere near what the guys on the telly are doing.

3woodvt · Jan 10, 2019 7:29am

MtlJeff wrote:

3woodvt wrote:

Even par for two days in amateur golf tournaments beats 95% of other am.

I would definitely agree in terms of Mid-Am.

In the pure amateur world , the Juniors ruin everything LOL. You still might be right that you'll beat 95%. But the ones you aren't beating are probably juniors. At my club it's like a revolving door, they go off to college and then the following year there's a few new dudes who grew like 5 inches overnight between 16 and 17 , and are driving 320yds and shooting 68. Those punks!

agreed but I'd take even every time lol

3woodvt · Jan 10, 2019 7:33am

dg_1983 wrote:

Always cracks me up reading about "slope" "rating" "non tournament index" " tournament index"

Just play to par guys. The rest is just noise.

Average UK scratch is gonna be somewhere around 10shots behind your pros on longer setups. Shorter setups will be closer.

I'm fascinated by "scratch" being held as some sore of benchmark against the pro game. Everyone gets its not that good right? Your looking at +5 and better to be anywhere near what the guys on the telly are doing.

agree again. Couple of players around here that didn't make it to the big tours that are +4-5 and are weekend warriors now and typically win local 3 day am tournaments at -12 or so on pretty easy tracks 6500. Better amateurs E to +6 rounds out the top 10 .

crapula · Jan 10, 2019 10:56am

statgrad wrote:

What is a scratch golfer’s average round?

Let’s assume the standard deviation of the index over the last 20 rounds is 3. So this means 2/3 of the rounds are within 3 points of the mean index. Using some inverse normal simulation to match the 10 best scores averaging to 0, the scratch golfer, the average round is 2.4 “points” above the overall handicap. So let’s put the scratch golf on a course like Harbour Town, rating 75.6 and slope 148. Expected score is 2.4*(148/113) + 75.6 = 78.7.

For the record, at the RBC Heritage, the Tour average for the first two rounds was 70.9. I would imagine the greens were a little faster and the rough a little thicker than what the members have week to week. The PGA tour golfers are about 8 to 9 strokes better than scratch, maybe more.

For the scratch golfers out there, or those near it, does this match with your experience? Other thoughts?

Have at it.

Makes sense. I avg 77.5 avg rating of 72.8 and I'd say pros are about 10 shots on average better than me.

Current HDCP = 1.0

Last 20 = 3.98

statgrad · Jan 10, 2019 12:57pm

dg_1983 wrote:

Always cracks me up reading about "slope" "rating" "non tournament index" " tournament index"

Just play to par guys. The rest is just noise.

Average UK scratch is gonna be somewhere around 10shots behind your pros on longer setups. Shorter setups will be closer.

I'm fascinated by "scratch" being held as some sore of benchmark against the pro game. Everyone gets its not that good right? Your looking at +5 and better to be anywhere near what the guys on the telly are doing.

Scratch is very good. The pros are just that much better.

bogeypro · Jan 10, 2019 2:52pm

It all depends on where you establish... I know guys that are + handicaps at a really easy club near me that can barely break 80 in the mid am.

I'm telling you folks, it all about not being used the tour setups and pressure. Why do people not realize that a scratch golfer doesn't shoot par on his local muni most of the time.... so why would you think he would be anywhere near par on a harder setup?

Just stop over inflating the mythical lore of a scratch golfer....

bogeypro · Jan 10, 2019 2:56pm

As an example, last year's US mid am champ was Matt Parziale. He's listed as a +1.7 on ghin. He shot 81/79 at the Masters in 2018. The speed and the pressure is much greater. Give him experience and he'd probably shoot mid 70s, possible par.

PowderedToastMan · Jan 10, 2019 3:35pm

If you ever want to see how scratch (or better) golfers come in different forms, attend a local US Opening qualifying tournament one day. You'll see tour looking swings on the driving range before the round, total stripe shows, and then you'll see scores ranging from the 60's to the 90's. I would argue that all these players have almost equal ability.

Maybe a couple of the players are reverse sandbaggers, but most of the poor scores are from players who just seem to play a different game once it's a "tournament". Golfers who in practice are much better than another scratch but can't come within a sniff of that same player come tournament time. Everyone knows a guy who shoots mid-60's in practice but has never done anything in tournaments, and another guy who shoots 70-74 at his home course and then travels to tournaments and shoots the same 70-74. The last guy is the one who's figured out golf.

3woodvt · Jan 10, 2019 3:56pm

bogeypro wrote:

As an example, last year's US mid am champ was Matt Parziale. He's listed as a +1.7 on ghin. He shot 81/79 at the Masters in 2018. The speed and the pressure is much greater. Give him experience and he'd probably shoot mid 70s, possible par.

he may never shoot par at Augusta. Greens greens greens but your point is valid .

Obee · Jan 10, 2019 4:37pm

3woodvt wrote:

bogeypro wrote:

As an example, last year's US mid am champ was Matt Parziale. He's listed as a +1.7 on ghin. He shot 81/79 at the Masters in 2018. The speed and the pressure is much greater. Give him experience and he'd probably shoot mid 70s, possible par.

he may never shoot par at Augusta. Greens greens greens but your point is valid .

Matt Parziale is in the same league as Stewart Hagestad. Hagestad made the cut at the Masters, Parziale made the cut at the U.S. Open.

Around par (for a round or two, not necessarily the four-round tournament) is absolutely in play for elite mid-ams at any major with a few reps.

dg_1983 · Jan 10, 2019 5:09pm

bogeypro wrote:

It all depends on where you establish... I know guys that are + handicaps at a really easy club near me that can barely break 80 in the mid am.

I'm telling you folks, it all about not being used the tour setups and pressure. Why do people not realize that a scratch golfer doesn't shoot par on his local muni most of the time.... so why would you think he would be anywhere near par on a harder setup?

Just stop over inflating the mythical lore of a scratch golfer....

Proper scratch golfers do shoot par and break it regularly. Well UK ones do

bogeypro · Jan 10, 2019 6:27pm

dg_1983 wrote:

bogeypro wrote:

It all depends on where you establish... I know guys that are + handicaps at a really easy club near me that can barely break 80 in the mid am.

I'm telling you folks, it all about not being used the tour setups and pressure. Why do people not realize that a scratch golfer doesn't shoot par on his local muni most of the time.... so why would you think he would be anywhere near par on a harder setup?

Just stop over inflating the mythical lore of a scratch golfer....

Proper scratch golfers do shoot par and break it regularly. Well UK ones do

We calculate different on this side of the pond.

BNGL · Jan 10, 2019 6:47pm

dg_1983 wrote:

Always cracks me up reading about "slope" "rating" "non tournament index" " tournament index"

Just play to par guys. The rest is just noise.

Average UK scratch is gonna be somewhere around 10shots behind your pros on longer setups. Shorter setups will be closer.

I'm fascinated by "scratch" being held as some sore of benchmark against the pro game. Everyone gets its not that good right? Your looking at +5 and better to be anywhere near what the guys on the telly are doing.

Something kind of related to your last point of the “mythical scratch players” a lot of tour guys have never really cared about their handicap...they only wished to be the best player for their age or whom they were competing against. Golf Digest did a great article on it with Adler and a stat guy comparing a scratch player to an average tour professional.

Shades234 · Jan 10, 2019 7:05pm

Obee wrote:

3woodvt wrote:

bogeypro wrote:

As an example, last year's US mid am champ was Matt Parziale. He's listed as a +1.7 on ghin. He shot 81/79 at the Masters in 2018. The speed and the pressure is much greater. Give him experience and he'd probably shoot mid 70s, possible par.

he may never shoot par at Augusta. Greens greens greens but your point is valid .

Matt Parziale is in the same league as Stewart Hagestad. Hagestad made the cut at the Masters, Parziale made the cut at the U.S. Open.

Around par (for a round or two, not necessarily the four-round tournament) is absolutely in play for elite mid-ams at any major with a few reps.

I wouldn't put Stew in the same league as a typical mid-am. Yes, he had a Wall St. job, but he took a leave of absence of almost 6 months leading up to the Masters to prepare. At the time he was a member of Big Canyon CC and Los Angeles CC. It's not my intention to take anything away from what he has accomplished, but the guy is not just a normal dude playing golf in his free time. He's the elite of the elite with the resources and drive to keep himself there.

But yes, I agree. Near par or better is definitely achievable for a mid-am winner.

Shades234 · Jan 10, 2019 7:07pm

BNGL wrote:

dg_1983 wrote:

Always cracks me up reading about "slope" "rating" "non tournament index" " tournament index"

Just play to par guys. The rest is just noise.

Average UK scratch is gonna be somewhere around 10shots behind your pros on longer setups. Shorter setups will be closer.

I'm fascinated by "scratch" being held as some sore of benchmark against the pro game. Everyone gets its not that good right? Your looking at +5 and better to be anywhere near what the guys on the telly are doing.

Something kind of related to your last point of the “mythical scratch players” a lot of tour guys have never really cared about their handicap...they only wished to be the best player for their age or whom they were competing against. Golf Digest did a great article on it with Adler and a stat guy comparing a scratch player to an average tour professional.

I couldn't care less about my index as long as it's low enough to sign up for the tournaments that I wish to play in.

Obee · Jan 10, 2019 7:16pm

Shades234 wrote:

Obee wrote:

3woodvt wrote:

bogeypro wrote:

As an example, last year's US mid am champ was Matt Parziale. He's listed as a +1.7 on ghin. He shot 81/79 at the Masters in 2018. The speed and the pressure is much greater. Give him experience and he'd probably shoot mid 70s, possible par.

he may never shoot par at Augusta. Greens greens greens but your point is valid .

Matt Parziale is in the same league as Stewart Hagestad. Hagestad made the cut at the Masters, Parziale made the cut at the U.S. Open.

Around par (for a round or two, not necessarily the four-round tournament) is absolutely in play for elite mid-ams at any major with a few reps.

I wouldn't put Stew in the same league as a typical mid-am. Yes, he had a Wall St. job, but he took a leave of absence of almost 6 months leading up to the Masters to prepare. At the time he was a member of Big Canyon CC and Los Angeles CC. It's not my intention to take anything away from what he has accomplished, but the guy is not just a normal dude playing golf in his free time. He's the elite of the elite with the resources and drive to keep himself there.

But yes, I agree. Near par or better is definitely achievable for a mid-am winner.

I didn't mean to imply that he is a "regular mid-am." He is NOT that. I specifically compared him to Parziale because Parziale made the cut at the U.S. Open. They are both among the elite of the elite. :-)

3woodvt · Jan 10, 2019 7:20pm

Good topic and some good points being made. Does anyone know when the last time any mid am hit par or better at Augusta? Love pulling for the mid ams at these events.

Obee · Jan 10, 2019 7:33pm

3woodvt wrote:

Good topic and some good points being made. Does anyone know when the last time any mid am hit par or better at Augusta? Love pulling for the mid ams at these events.

Hagestad was the first mid-am to ever make the cut. They usually shoot 76 to 82 in back to back rounds and head home with a lifetime of memories. Hagestad was having none of that! LOL

3woodvt · Jan 10, 2019 7:43pm

Obee wrote:

3woodvt wrote:

Good topic and some good points being made. Does anyone know when the last time any mid am hit par or better at Augusta? Love pulling for the mid ams at these events.

Hagestad was the first mid-am to ever make the cut. They usually shoot 76 to 82 in back to back rounds and head home with a lifetime of memories. Hagestad was having none of that! LOL

I know my Virginia icon Tom McNight made the cut back in the late 90s .like 73,74,74,77 or something. Of course he was like #2 in the world for a good while behind legendary Jay Siegel who dominated that scene in the 80s. Hats off to Hagestad .I could probably find it but I doubt there has been very few 72 or lower rounds the last 20 years at Augusta since adding length after Tiger proofing it.

Would love to see that stat. 0-40 or whatever it is .

Obee · Jan 10, 2019 8:29pm

3woodvt wrote:

Obee wrote:

3woodvt wrote:

Good topic and some good points being made. Does anyone know when the last time any mid am hit par or better at Augusta? Love pulling for the mid ams at these events.

Hagestad was the first mid-am to ever make the cut. They usually shoot 76 to 82 in back to back rounds and head home with a lifetime of memories. Hagestad was having none of that! LOL

I know my Virginia icon Tom McNight made the cut back in the late 90s .like 73,74,74,77 or something. Of course he was like #2 in the world for a good while behind legendary Jay Siegel who dominated that scene in the 80s. Hats off to Hagestad .I could probably find it but I doubt there has been very few 72 or lower rounds the last 20 years at Augusta since adding length after Tiger proofing it.

Would love to see that stat. 0-40 or whatever it is .

Yeah, I might have got that wrong with stating he was the ONLY Mid-Am winner to make the cut. Maybe it was the only one in the last 20 years or something. Regardless, it hasn't happened often, for sure. :-)

I know and have play with/against several guys who have played in the Masters as Amateurs:

Danny Green (played in the Scratch Players Mid-Am with Him in 2006(?).

Tim Hogarth (Have played with/against Timmy many, many times. He got in as winner of the U.S. Pub Links in 1997(?), but was also U.S. Mid-Am Runner Up in 2010)

Kevin Marsh (Have played in a couple tournaments he was in)

Greg Puga (Have played in quite a few tournaments with Greg back in the late 90's and early 2000's)

Even though he's in SoCal, I have yet to play with Hagestad. Looking forward to doing so one day. Hope it's at LACC! LOL!

Obee · Jan 10, 2019 8:30pm

3woodvt wrote:

Obee wrote:

3woodvt wrote:

Good topic and some good points being made. Does anyone know when the last time any mid am hit par or better at Augusta? Love pulling for the mid ams at these events.

Hagestad was the first mid-am to ever make the cut. They usually shoot 76 to 82 in back to back rounds and head home with a lifetime of memories. Hagestad was having none of that! LOL

I know my Virginia icon Tom McNight made the cut back in the late 90s .like 73,74,74,77 or something. Of course he was like #2 in the world for a good while behind legendary Jay Siegel who dominated that scene in the 80s. Hats off to Hagestad .I could probably find it but I doubt there has been very few 72 or lower rounds the last 20 years at Augusta since adding length after Tiger proofing it.

Would love to see that stat. 0-40 or whatever it is .

How did McKnight get in? Was it from the Pub Links or something? A different tournament that he won? Doesn't look like he ever won the Mid-Am, or am I mistaken?

3woodvt · Jan 10, 2019 8:44pm

Obee wrote:

3woodvt wrote:

Obee wrote:

3woodvt wrote:

Good topic and some good points being made. Does anyone know when the last time any mid am hit par or better at Augusta? Love pulling for the mid ams at these events.

Hagestad was the first mid-am to ever make the cut. They usually shoot 76 to 82 in back to back rounds and head home with a lifetime of memories. Hagestad was having none of that! LOL

I know my Virginia icon Tom McNight made the cut back in the late 90s .like 73,74,74,77 or something. Of course he was like #2 in the world for a good while behind legendary Jay Siegel who dominated that scene in the 80s. Hats off to Hagestad .I could probably find it but I doubt there has been very few 72 or lower rounds the last 20 years at Augusta since adding length after Tiger proofing it.

Would love to see that stat. 0-40 or whatever it is .

How did McKnight get in? Was it from the Pub Links or something? A different tournament that he won? Doesn't look like he ever won the Mid-Am, or am I mistaken?

looks like he was us amateur runner up in 99 to trip Kuene. Had to be in his mid 40s .just assumed he was mid am. That's what assumptions do to you. My bad .

OakLawnGolfPro · Jan 10, 2019 11:01pm

I remember hearing a story from a former Web.com tour player who played a scratch player in his hometown of Dallas around 100 times who was scratch. And he never lost to him.

When I played Mini-Tours, the day I lost my drive for it (those who have tried I think all know what I'm talking about), I shot -5 for 2 rounds and missed the cut in an event and I was around a +3.5 at the time. They are just that good on tour.

OakLawnGolfPro · Jan 10, 2019 11:01pm

I remember hearing a story from a former Web.com tour player who played a scratch player in his hometown of Dallas around 100 times who was scratch. And he never lost to him.

When I played Mini-Tours, the day I lost my drive for it (those who have tried I think all know what I'm talking about), I shot -5 for 2 rounds and missed the cut in an event and I was around a +3.5 at the time. They are just that good on tour.

OakLawnGolfPro · Jan 10, 2019 11:02pm

I remember hearing a story from a former Web.com tour player who played a scratch player in his hometown of Dallas around 100 times who was scratch. And he never lost to him.

When I played Mini-Tours, the day I lost my drive for it (those who have tried I think all know what I'm talking about), I shot -5 for 2 rounds and missed the cut in an event and I was around a +3.5 at the time. They are just that good on tour.

A scratch golfer's average round

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