2020 Gainbridge LPGA at Boca Rio

[Stooch]

Like @agolf1 I like to wait 5 events before making any proclamations on a players form but WOW something has definitely been lost with Ariya. She will only have 2 under par rounds out of 7 played so far. This game is fickle, one day it looks like nobody on tour will be able to beat you and the next it looks like you'll never be in contention again.

[18majors]

The scores seem to be bipolar today; many good scores but patches of really high ones.

For curiosity I did a calculation; as of 11:50 AM EST, the course is playing to 0.25 over per round.

[Stooch]

That was my impression, scores flipped rather quickly. Only thing I can see is a weather change of some sort.

[18majors]

Yealimi Noh seems to be rounding into form; a clean scorecard of one bogey and 28 putts.

Her driving distance seems to be down from last year; it could be due to course conditions since the sample base is still small.

[Argonne69]

Yani Tseng approves this message.

[ChronicSlicer]

Not as dominant as Yani but So Yeon, and Anna Nordqvist are giving a nod from the back of the room also.

[Argonne69]

Madelene putting on a ballstriking clinic.

Lots of good scores on moving day. Conditions are definitely ripe for scoring. Danielle making a big charge. Nasa has missed half of her greens, but is still in the hunt.

[Stooch]

Maddy might wanna make a birdie or two on the back 9 or it could come back to bite her.

[Stooch]

Yui K. could get that rookie top 10 with a good final round. All the other rooks seem to have fanbases so I'm gonna ride with Yui for ROY, although not sure she a shot at it

[Argonne69]

Carlota setting herself up for a massive Sunday charge? Surprised to see her over par for the day.

 

[ChronicSlicer]

Whoa... that would be an insane charge indeed. Unless of course everybody else dropped like flies. A good day wouldn't surprise me though, considering she's not in the lead.

[ChronicSlicer]

Nice to see Moriya playing well so far this year. Maybe she can regain that 2017 form again.

[18majors]

This is tough Top-10 to get but doable for Yui; she probably needs a round of -5 to finish at -11.

But she's comfortably ahead of other rookies; who're either -2 or -1.

 

[18majors]

It's only her second tournament of the new season, but Nelly Korda has been out of sort.

I wonder whether both Nelly and Muni He have been distracted by their off-course activities; both have openly announced their boy friends to the world.

[18majors]

Top-10 is probably out of reach for Alison Lee; but she can shoot -7 tomorrow to reach Top-20.

A Top-20 will earn about $20,000; it'll go a long way to secure a spot at 2020 ANA Inspiration.

[ChronicSlicer]

You wonder if Nelly and Muni have been distracted by off course activities, but you can't seem to figure out why Alison Lee hasn't reached her potential with her "unmatched raw talent"?

 

[Stooch]

My expectations for Allison turning things around is solely based on the fact that at this point she's become the "creepy lady" at the frat parties lol

[Awsi Dooger]

Madelene Sagstrom still leads. She played an excellent round today. It was fun to follow her around the course. But she is no longer likely to win. That's the mathematical residue of throwing away short birdie chances on 16, 17 and 18. It was driving me nuts because I've done the golf wagering since 1984 so I know how the percentages shift. Every missed putt is basically 5-7% or greater. The late Saturday shots are often the most critical of the week because the fragile (or less proven) player has opportunity to build a huge gap and therefore margin for error. She isn't feeling pressure yet. It is so different to take advantage of opportunities on Saturday as opposed to prying a birdie from somewhere on Sunday, with everyone breathing down your neck.

I was trying to describe this to fellow gallery members over the final holes. Naturally you get some takers and some rejectors. One lady scoffed, "Of course she is favored. She has the lead." That type of attitude is so familiar. But as I was explaining to her more reasonable husband, Sagstrom would have been slightly better than 50/50 likely to win with a 4 shot lead. She would have been slightly worse than 50/50 expectancy with a 3 shot lead. But down to a 2 shot edge, and given the caliber of players bunched behind her, Sagstrom is no better than 30% likely to win. His wife glared at me when I made that comment. Meanwhile, check out the wagering odds. Sagstrom is offered at 5/2 on several sites. That is the equivalent of 28.57%, even if you don't consider the house juice.

The missed putts were slightly poor reads, for the most part. It began on 12 when I had seen that putt from near the left fringe earlier in the day. It does not break right. Sagstrom tried to make it go right. It missed 2 cups on the high side. Then on 16 in the prior group Cydney Clandon and Jennifer Song both made basically the same birdie putt that Sagstrom later faced. I wanted to scream out to Sagstrom that it was a straight putt. Sagstrom played it outside left and it missed left. Then on 17 likewise she played it outside left and it stayed there. I had followed Marina Alex and Jennifer Kupcho earlier in the day. Alex hit a terrific long approach into 18 just right of the hole, and almost identical to the putt Sagstrom faced. I stood behind Marina's line and saw that she played it inside right. It was the perfect read to the center of the cup. Again I wanted to scream at Sagstrom once I saw her aiming slightly outside the hole on the right. She missed on the right edge. That one shot to boost to 3 instead of 2 could have been all the difference on Sunday.

Sagstrom has such a great attitude out there. It was won many fans. I heard lots of chatter about it in the gallery. She and her caddie never engage in any serious strategy talk. It is always anecdotal and light natured and upbeat. They are clearly enjoying this experience. I'm not sure if he is her regular caddie or not. Such a contrast today between Ciganda's caddie, who was asked to read every point and pick out specific spots, to Sagstrom's caddie who was not involved at all on the greens. She would occasionally hand him the ball after marking it, and whisper to him to clean the ball then go stand near her ball mark. That was it. It was priceless. Sure enough, he'd clean the ball with a white towel and while Ciganda was putting he would walk to Madelene's ball mark and stand nearby. Then when Madelene approached he would hand her the clean golf ball, then get out of the way. Ciganda's caddie would hand him the flagstick. It was great on the front nine because Sagstrom would sink the putt then the two of them would grin and celebrate while walking toward the next tee box.

I hope it plays out that way on Sunday. I have my doubts. A player with that type of resume generally needs that 4 shot lead.

 

 

 

[ChronicSlicer]

Good one Stooch! Alison has talent for sure, it may not be as much as some think, but she could definitely find a nice home inside the top 40. Her off the course lifestyle appears to be putting a damper on her game, but who knows maybe it's something more. Maybe she just likes playing Thursday and Friday and having weekends off..lol.

[ChronicSlicer]

I understand none of that gambling stuff you mention, but do any of "the odds" consider weather, fatigue, one bad shot, a lights out performance by a competitor, possible injury?

On a positive note, Madelene is incredibly positive, and seems to be in a very good place in her life right now. Win or lose tomorrow, she is still a winner in my book. I've been waiting for a few years for her to break through and hopefully tomorrow is her day.

[Raving Shanker]

A lot of people don't understand gambling. That's why analytical people such as you and I make money out of it!

[Stooch]

An uncanny stat that is predictive of the winners of the events that usually I would say is over 75% accurate. The winner of the events don't have more than 5 over par holes the whole week, Madelaine is at 5 over par holes right now so if theory holds true and she makes a bogey tomorrow she doesn't win.

[Awsi Dooger]

Let me go back to Friday's round for some observations:

I was watching players on the range prior to the afternoon wave when I noticed the scoreboard and Madelene Sagstrom -9 through 12. That made no sense at all. I was scrambling to find her on the pairings guide. As I thought, Sagstrom began the day at Even. Granted, it's wet conditions and lift, clean and place but -9 was never foreseeable on this long course. I decided to walk the back nine backwards until I reached Sagstrom's group and follow her inJessica Korda was on 17. Her playing partner Nasa Hataoka had her ball come to rest between two sprinkler heads approximately 7 inches apart just off the left side of the green on the short par 3. The ball was maybe 1 1/2 inches from the forward sprinkler head and sitting on very fluffy grass. It looked like a perfect lie to me. I was wondering why the heck Nasa didn't merely play the shot. But she and her caddie insisted on calling for a ruling. They appeared convinced that relief would be granted, because they were already picking out the spot for her relief. This was going to be interesting. Sure enough, once the young rules official arrived it was obvious from the outset that he didn't accept their argument. He had Nasa take her stance. Nothing touched the sprinkler heads. He had her ground her club and simulate the shot. Again, everything he said and all of his gestures indicated no relief. Nasa seemed stunned. She said, "No?" The young rules official matter of factly pointed out that the sprinkler head was deep in the ground, at least 2 inches below the level of the ball. so the striking motion of the club on a short chip shot wasn't going to encounter the sprinkler head at all. His summary, "I don't see any grounds for physical relief." I thought he was perfectly correct. It's just so unusual for the more conservative judgment to be applied in situations like that. Nasa hit a simple little chip and easily saved par. For whatever reason Jerry Foltz never bothered to walk to the location and listen to the lengthy rules conversation. He was with the group for the midday TV window but somehow decided to stand on the back fringe throughout, at least 40 feet away. I kept thinking Foltz would never get away with that in a PGA event. Those fans would want to listen to the full rules play by playOnce I reached Sagstrom's group she made par on 15 then I noticed that the tees were up on 16, making it a completely different hole than Thursday when it was a long 3-shot par 5 into the wind. Sagstrom took advantage by reaching easily albeit left of the green. I had no idea about her short game. This example was superb, a short pitch enabling a birdie putt to reach -10Sagstrom had a small gallery to that point. Now we are at the signature 17th with the grandstand covering the hole at right of the tee box. TV cameras and photographers all over the place. I was wondering how Sagstrom would handle it. The answer was a badly struck shot that sounded awful. It was basically a bladed line drive into the center of the green. The older volunteer at that tee box turned to the female volunteer and said, "Did you see that? She skulled it. She skulled it and got away with it. In my group when we skull it we pay for it." I was laughing a little bit. Skulled was somewhat harsh. But anyone who witnessed and heard that shot knew it was awful contact by pro standards. Sagstrom might have been shook up by it. Her putt was tentative then she lipped out the 3 foot par putt.I wasn't expecting much on 18. But the drive was solid down the left side and her iron approach was towering and strong, all over the flag. Once Sagstrom sank that putt to regain -10 I realized she was a better player than I was giving her credit for. Very genuine reaction to the outpouring of cheers. She was embracing friends and maybe relatives. Then I was amazed 2 hours later when I reached the clubhouse area again and Sagstrom was grinding over 6 footers on the practice putting green, still in the same attire from her round of 62. She was using an alignment device and talking to a coach after every putt. The coach was not her caddie, who is an older white haired guyKaren Stupples has lost weight, BTW. Not a tremendous amount but noticeable since November at CME. She is walking more normally and refusing the carts rides in deference to walking the holes on her ownAfter Sagstrom finished I scanned the pairing sheet and decided to find the group of Nelly Korda, Georgia Hall and Cydney Clanton. They had just started their second round, on the back nine. All were barely under par and needed to rally to be a factor on the weekend. It turned out to be an excellent choice. Clanton hit one superb shot after another. I wasn't overly familiar with her game. Once I saw her frame and a few swings she reminded me of an American version of Katherine Kirk. I joined the group on 14. Cydney hit it to one foot. Birdie. Then she stuck it to 3 feet on the difficult 15th. Another birdie. Cydney took full advantage of the shortened par 5 16th by lofting a high iron to about 8 feet right of the hole. That was an eagle punctuated by a fist pump. Nelly and Georgia were playing well also. But Nelly is not on auto pilot like November at CME. There it was aim and fire. Full confidence. Ball starting immediately where she intended. This time I saw more indecision and more slightly errant shots. Sure enough, Nelly walked over to her caddie in frustration between 17th green and 18th tee box, and described basically what I thought I was seeing. Nelly was -3 at this point. She said to her caddie, "I feel like I could be 9 under if I knew where it was going. Sometimes it feels slightly left. Sometimes it feels right. I don't know where I'm aiming, you know?"When that group made the turn, all three found a greenside bunker in 2 on the par 5 first hole. Nelly and Cydney got up and down for birdie. Then on #2 Nelly had one of the worst breaks I remember seeing on a golf course. Nelly dating to CME never seems to have any fortune on her occasional errant shot, and the situation is wearing on her. This was a poor shot. fanned right from the center of the fairway. It was heading to a greenside bunker just right of the hole. I was standing there at greenside. The ball barely cleared the front edge of the bunker and somehow traveled only another inch. It buried in a severe downslope only 6 inches inside the bunker. Didn't seem possible. There weren't many of us there to witness the result. The remainder of the decent sized gallery was back with the players. All of at greenside agreed that the result didn't seem possible, and that Nelly was going to be ticked once she witnessed her fate. I said the ball wouldn't stop there if 100 shots landed on that downslope. If the ball settles normally it's a routine short blast from a flat lie to a nearby pin. Instead Nelly was going to be forced to stand with both feet outside the bunker and the ball severely below her feetSure enough, when Nelly approached she did not see her ball. It was not visible in the bunker so she was looking in the rough between traps. When we pointed out her ball Nelly had to lean forward and peer downward over the lip to see it. I fully understood what followed. Nelly turned toward her caddie and launched a low decibel barrage of F word tributes. One spectator said minutes later, "Does she have the mouth on her? Did you hear that?" But his friend was impressed. He said, "I admire that. It takes a lot of guts to use that word in public." All of us agreed that if any shot earned that type of language, it was that result in the bunker. Nelly tried to get cute and left the first one in the bunker. She blasted out and nearly sank it, but made bogey. Facial expressions to kill, as Cydney ignored the surroundings and sank a short birdie puttCydney birdied #3 as well. This was the second time in as many days I had seen a player birdie 1-2-3, after Cristie Kerr did it on Thursday. It appeared Cydney's streak would end at 3 when she had some minor tree trouble on 4 and was forced to hit a long punch under the branches, stopping on the green but 50 feet short of the back pin position. That putt dropped and always looked like it would drop. Perfectly judged. Cydney looked skyward in disbelief. Four in a row. Now she was climbing into serious contention. The following hole only added to it when Cydney missed the green on the left fringe but dropped another 35 foot curling bomb that again was destined for the cup throughout the final stages. Now she was -8 with 4 holes remaining. Not impossible to join Sagstrom at -10 before the day endedOn the par 3 sixth tee there was a short delay. Cydney saw a young boy perhaps 8 years old standing not far away wearing a Lamar Jackson #8 jersey from the Ravens. Cydney said, "Are you a Baltimore fan?" The boys' parents approved and laughed, "How could you guess? He's got hints head to toe." Unfortunately it turned awkward when the boy was very shy and curled around the corner, placing his head in his mom's shoulder and doing his best to hide. He wasn't ready for the LPGA player to address him, nor the quick reaction from the gallery. To her credit, Cydney realized it was best not to say anything more, for the situation to die out. A different child might have reacted in animated fashion, leading to more conversationCydney hit her best shot of the day from that tee but received a miserable break. The ball hit the bottom of the flagstick and scampered 12 feet away. Instead of a kick in birdie she barely missed the uphill 12 footer. Then a bit of a sloppy bogey on 7 when her approach was on the right front fringe and the approach putt was overly aggressive...7 feet past leading to a miss on returnNelly told her caddie she felt tired on that 7th green. He replied, "You're tired?" She said, "Very." It showed on the next shot. Nelly was slightly over the green perhaps 30 feet from the cup, in light bermuda on flat ground. She hit a chip shot that traveled 4 feet. It rightfully travelled 4 feet. The backswing suggested 4 feet. The strike suggested 4 feet. It would have been a wonderful shot if 4 feet were the requirement and not 30. It immediately reminded me of that Bubba Watson putt in the Rio Olympics that needed 50 feet but traveled 6. There wasn't any reaction from Nelly or her caddie. It had been a tired shot. Her next chip was fine and she made bogeyThe following hole #8 both Cydney and Georgia Hall hit lob wedges to within a few feet on the tucked front left cup on the par 5. Nelly felt like showing off so she played quickly and the ball was all over the cup. It appeared destined to land perhaps 3 feet beyond the hole and maybe draw back for a kick in or an eagle. Instead Nelly's recent run of bad luck surfaced again. The shot hit the top of the flagstick and ricocheted off the front of the green. Nelly took off her visor and threw it in disgust. After the break on #2 and now this one, I fully understood it. She saved par while the other two converted their birdie putts. That brought Cydney back up to -8Nelly ended the day with an excellent approach on 9 to within 6 feet. She sank the birdie and her attitude noticeably perked up. It seemed more relief than anything else. She got through a tired late afternoon round at -3 despite two horrible breaksLater Friday night I noted that Nelly was paired with Brooke on Saturday. Normally that would be a pairing I was interested to follow. Not this time. Brooke is going to miss the guaranteed number of makeable putts. Nelly's game is simply not in top shape right now. There have to be superior choices.

[Shilgy]

So Kang is the winner? Some have too many bogeys, Hatoaka and Boutier are too short and Sagstrom is too tall. Kang is 5’6”.

[Awsi Dooger]

[Seamus_McDuff]

Sagstrom’s caddie this week is her fiancé’s Father. Her fiancé caddies for Hedwall.

[Titleist_PT23]

The HSBC is the other one I think is at risk. There is a lot of travel between Singapore and China. In addition, the population density and reliance on public transport by many don't help. Hong Kong (similar characteristics) just shutdown the schools until 17 Feb.

Blue Bay is on an island of the Southern coast of China. It may actually be a more stable location, although it could be avoided by more players just because.

Let's hope for the best.

[Stooch]

Ha ha I actually put a small play on Danielle to win tomorrow at +450 or 4.5 to 1 odds

[fredogolfer]

That’s Maria’s problem. Everyone is so impressed she drives it far and strong but it does no good to drive it into the trees, bushes or anywhere off the fairway.

[18majors]

Good attendance