Chasing the Grand Slam - McIlroy vs Spieth

[DFS PFD]

Rory has fallen off the wagon and come back arguably as strong as ever. Speith does not have the resilience that Rory does. Unless Jordan goes through hypnosis or some ridiculous transition of mindset I don't see him pulling it off. Rory is too good not to win at Augusta.

[OldTomMorris]

I agree. The thing with Rory is he doesn't need to be a great wedge player or putter, I know is a little bit of cliche but if he's just good for elite level and his driving etc. is up to his standard then he's there or thereabouts. Rory is capable with the putter but some players, regardless of how good they are, are never going to be great putters. Its not a barrier to winning but Tiger wouldn't have put up the wins he did if he wasn't a great putter same with Jack. I think you need to be a great putter to do to a Tiger or Jack.

[QuigleyDU]

I feel like Speith has the easiest leg to complete the grand slam in the PGA. Although I feel like once Rory wins at Augusta it could open a flood gate.

[Titleist_PT23]

I believe both or neither will get it done.

Spieth will be moving to Frisco, TX and the new PGA course once it is done? I think he will get two cracks at it there (provided he's on the tour).

[bscinstnct]

 

I think that seeing TW win without hitting monster drives may have him rethink his game plan and really focus on his positions for approach and the risk/reward of a bad drive vs maybe a little longer approach but in position.

 

Plus, with all his cash, he can build a green complex or two to simulate the conditions and just practice on then this whole time if he’s smart! ; )

[Cincy_Ken]

Tell that to Arnold Palmer and Tom Watson. You could argue either way but PGAs seem like they have more courses that promote lower scores like a regular tour event. More people who are capable of winning.

[QuigleyDU]

True. More Volatility there.

[tbowles411]

I personally think Jordan has WAY too much information flying in his head and he can't keep it straight. Maybe he needs a coaching change to make the game more simple, or at least to get a different voice in his head.

[DFS PFD]

I agree, your mind has to be one of your greatest assets and enemies on the golf course. He could have instruction from current teachers and old reverberating and contradicting each other leading to commitment issues over the ball. Truly has to be one of the most frustrating things in the world for someone who is capable of so much as he as shown us all.

[MUNIGRIT]

Rory obviously for how they are playing right now as Speith looks like he will never win another tournament without finding some game

With that being said I'd also say Rory because the Masters is the easiest Major to win and the weakest field. Probably only 20 guys who can win it where the field is much deeper in the PGA.

[Lark]

He has such an idiosyncratic swing that a coaching change could be worse. He needs to find his old swing again.

[MUNIGRIT]

Plenty of mediocre to below average putters have won at Augusta. Bubba, Couples, Sergio, even Langer back in the day. Probably a few more I'm leaving off. It is a ball strikers course and specifically the 2nd shot into the green.

[Lark]

The top 60+ players play in both. After that, IMO, the rest of the field doesn’t make much of a difference. The bigger factor would be how the courses set up for their games. Different courses and setups for the PGA, vs the favorable driving holes and tricky greens at Augusta.

[cdnglf]

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[QuigleyDU]

 

While below average. They were hot that week. Which is what it takes.

[jsnoland]

Agree with this. Plus, the Masters always has a much smaller field (I believe this year's is 96, and that's actually LARGE for Augusta) than the PGA (136, excluding the 20 club pros). But if you look more closely at the Masters field in any given year, the number who can REALISTICALLY contend is actually quite small, when you take out the amateurs (5-6 every year), the rookies (last rookie winner was 1979, so those 15 or so rookies every year don't really have good odds), the older champions who can't really compete any more (Woosnam, O'Meara, Lyle, Couples, Olazabal, Crenshaw, Stadler, Zoeller, Langer, etc.), shorter hitters (Zach Johnson aside), the handful of guys who will be dealing with injuries during that week, etc. Then you think about ball flight, which favors guys who can hit a high draw off the tee but bring it in to the green with a high fade. Then finally, putting - yes, there have been some traditionally weaker putters who've won at Augusta, but not very many. When you really look closely, there are probably only 30 or so guys who can realistically win at Augusta in a given year.

 

With the PGA, you have a MUCH larger field, courses that generally favor lower scoring, and a larger number of players who can realistically compete and win. Look at the list of winners, and you'll see many more one-time winners (at least in the modern era) of the event than with Augusta. You'll also see that for a lot of PGA winners, it's their only major (DLIII, Mark Brooks, David Toms, Shaun Micheel, YE Yang, Keegan Bradley, Duf). And given that the championship moves every year (as noted earlier), it doesn't favor a seasoned veteran the way Augusta does. Would MUCH rather be Rory chasing Augusta for those reasons alone, but even putting aside the Rory vs. Spieth argument, would generally prefer the odds of ANY seasoned, upper echelon player winning at Augusta (outside of the lower-odds groups noted above) vs. (insert name of PGA Tour Pro) teeing it up at whatever PGA venue happens to be that year's site. PGA is a tough win. As someone else pointed out, just ask Watson, or Palmer (RIP).

 

As for Jordan, I DO believe Jordan will be back. He had incredible (nearly unprecedented) early success on Tour, and I do believe he's still trying to shake off the hangover from that, and all that comes with SO much early success. Only a very small handful of other players have made such an early mark, and EVERY one of them went through slumps at various points in their careers as well. Even the Big Cat. He (Jordan) has always struck me as a player who is most successful when he is allowing himself to feel his way around the course, rather than take a technical approach. As he gets older, he'll learn to trust that feel a bit more, and learn not to worry so much about technical elements. And I think once he does that, we'll see him in the winner's circle many more times. Including a Grand Slam, at some point.

[Lark]

Add Vijay to that list.

[tacklingdummy]

Definitely Rory because his ball striking is solid. Ball striking is paramount to navigate different tracks successfully all the time. That is why Rory is always on top of or near the leaderboard. Jordan is great player, but I think his ball striking and short putting is holding him back. Short game is important, but there is only so many times you can get it up/down without losing shots to the field. Have to hit a ton fairways/greens to be consistently competitive because you are giving yourself more birdie opportunities instead of trying to save par.

[UCBananaboy]

Rory for sure.

Throughout its history, Augusta has shown that it's a course that requires past experience and local knowledge. Couple it with a limited field which also contains a dozen or so players who are drawing dead at winning, and it bodes well for Rory to capture one if he stays healthy throughout his career.

The PGA Championship fails to standout among other high-tier TOUR events, so effectively there are more people capable of winning.

[straightshot7]

It may be weaker than the PGA Championship, but The Masters' field is definitely not "pretty weak" in general.

The OWGR's Strength of Field formula had it as the 5th strongest field last year among all tournaments (behind just the other majors and the Players)

Information on how they calculate SOF here: http://www.owgr.com/about?tabID=%7B18F463EC-9CAC-45CD-96ED-0791B8007D15%7D

[65tempest]

Mr

[Lark]

In the last 25 years, how often has someone outside the top-50 won any of the other majors? 2 or 3 out of 75, if that? IMO, I don't consider strength of field as an issue when most all the top-20 are playing and the field has the top 50-60 players. Anyone beyond that rarely would make a difference at the top.

Agree that experience can be a significant factor at the Masters. If Rory keeps playing top-level golf for the next 5-10 years he should have a great chance to win it. I would like to see him win another major first.

[cdnglf]

Ive posted on this before and am not going to do it again for all the majors, but it is way more often than that.

Obviously, it doesn’t happen often at the Masters because they invite so few credible competitors outside the top 50.

At the PGA, which has the best field (typically nearly everyone 1-100):

Beem, Micheel, Bradley, Yang. Daly is just over 25 years ago.

[Nard_S]

The contrast between the two is stark. When Rory got lost, he quieted his mind, turned off Twitter and chilled. Spieth, gets more cluttered, talks to himself, tweaks swing and such. Rory is weak close in, Jordan strength is close in. Rory, soundest of swings, Jordan, not so much.

[MMB1500]

Neither. Both are certifiable head cases.

McIlroy in particular will never win at Augusta unless he finds a way to stop caring about the outcome and get out of his own way.

[sonnygolf]

Neither of them will win the slam book it!

[Chief Illiniwek]

Agree. Both Rory AND Norman are too good to not win at least one jacket. I look for both to get one in the next 5 years...

 

On a serious note, I dunno which of them can complete the slam. But I will say if I had to bet the farm on either Rory or Spieth winning a Masters I’d take JS. We all find that swing thought that gives us a good swing for a week or two. If he finds that his game was built for Augusta.

[adeangelis]

This is an interesting conversation. With golf being such a mental game, it makes this conversation that more intriguing. Jordan and his entire game right now, are a complete shambles. A guy like that, who has had that much success so early on, should not be struggling THIS much. I'm starting to think Jordan needs to fire Cam and get himself a new coach. I feel like McCormick has had Jordan change his swings a number of times over the last year/year and a half and that can't be good for Jordans mental.

As far as Rory, woo boy. That 80 in 2011 is a massive mental scar and I feel like that has shown up a couple of times on Sunday in recent years. I understand the idea that he plays the course year in and year out, however; 1 bad shot or 1 missed putt on a Sunday and the entire thing could come collapsing down around him again. That stage and that moment is so pressure packed, I think it could leave a scar that you just don't recover from. I could also be totally wrong. I'm just giving my irrelevant opinion.

With both of those things being said, I think Jordan gets it done first. Jordan could get hot again (2018 Masters...he owns ANGC btw) and pick up a win. I think with Augusta there is just something so mystical about it, where those memories are so hard to forget. While I certainly will root for Rory to win a Masters, I'm not sure he'll ever be able to overcome, mentally, that nightmare of 2011. I think he'll win a number of other majors though.

[bscinstnct]

Rory need that Whoop to tell him to

 

Eat a sandwich! Have some bread, man!

 

Some pizza, a buttered roll, some naan, box of Ritz or Triscuits.

 

Somethin.

 

Lol, I losin it ; )

 

[KRAMER1997]

Phil wins the US Open this year and Koepka wins the Masters and Open first!