Paging Richie Hunt: 70-yards added to drive

[Obee]

Richie,

 

How many strokes better would a player be if he hit driver 70 yards longer than than currently, with no other changes to said player's game. Assume that the player currently hits 75% of fairways at 230 carry and would hit 60% of fairways at 300 carry.

 

Is this somewhat knowable? Or are there too many variables?

 

[caniac6]

I guess a lot would depend on how wild those 15% more fairways missed were missed.

[Obee]

> @caniac6 said:

> I guess a lot would depend on how wild those 15% more fairways missed were missed.

 

OB. ;-)

 

[Obee]

I asked another stat guy and his answer seemed about right to me, I want to get Richie's take also. :-)

[Vardon Grip]

All that power would go to the Average Joes head. Soon, he would lose his friends, probably his family as he embarked in a quest to “chase the dream”. His clubs would be inadequate, must find a TX or TXX with lower and lower spin, and so on, a downward spiral that few if any would be able to survive.

That said, his handicap would drop approximately 9.3 strokes, give or take.

 

 

 

[Ferguson]

2-3 strokes a side

[cardoustie]

Obee did you get a new driver? Is it triangular shafted and when you yell "boom" at impact it flies over mountains?

[munichop]

I think you can answer this yourself. Go to the course you play the most and drop a ball 70 yards in front of where your normal drive on that hole stops and play in from there. The other alternative is move up 70 yards on each tee and tee up there and play in. For me when I play with the younger guys in city events the 70 yards is about right between our drives. for them it is a wedge and pitching game vs my much longer approach shots. Most of the time they are hit or miss on the short shots and don't score much better. But if they have a short game they always shoot 64-67 without much trouble. I shot a course record a few years back from the white tees. The mounding for drives and the carry distances made the course much easier off the tee than it plays from the back. I had a hot day putting and a bogey free 62 was the result. I play those tees now all the time since they are appropriate for my ever shrinking club head speed. But 65 is my best score since then. You still have to wedge it and putt it. Hence DJ's big leap in consistency when he dialed in his wedges. So I agree with Ferguson that is can be 2-3 a side but only if your wedge game and pitching game is solid.

[North Butte]

> @Obee said:

> Richie,

>

> How many strokes better would a player be if he hit driver 70 yards longer than than currently, with no other changes to said player's game. Assume that the player currently hits 75% of fairways at 230 carry and would hit 60% of fairways at 300 carry.

>

> Is this somewhat knowable? Or are there too many variables?

>

 

It would take a concerted effort to concoct realistic scenarios for entire rounds (Par 4's and Par 5's of varying length, probability of being in the woods or OB, etc.). Let's take the simplest possible example. A course consisting entirely of generic 420-yard Par 4's. That would leave 420-230=190 for the short hitter and 420-300=120 for the long hitter.

 

Tour players hitting from 190 in the fairway average about 3.13 strokes to hole out. From the 190 in rough it's 3.36 strokes.

 

Tour players hitting from 120 in the fairway average about 2.85 strokes to hole out. From 120 in the rough it's 3.08 strokes.

 

Per hole, that averages out to 75% x 3.13 + 25% x 3.36 = 3.19 strokes for the short hitter.

Per hole, average is 60% x 2.85 + 40% x 3.08 = 2.94 strokes for the long hitter.

 

If my quickie calculations don't have any typos it looks like the longer hitter saves 1/4 of a stroke on a 420-yard Par 4 (before we adjust for his higher likelihood of hitting the ball out of play). Over an entire round that's a couple strokes, easily.

 

So it will come down to whether the short hitter is significantly less likely to be chipping out or losing a ball. If the long hitter has, let's say, two more chip-outs from the woods per round it will cut his advantage down to maybe one stroke instead of two or three.

[PowderedToastMan]

@RichieHunt take a look at this.

You're welcome Obee ;)

[Shilgy]

> @munichop said:

> I think you can answer this yourself. Go to the course you play the most and drop a ball 70 yards in front of where your normal drive on that hole stops and play in from there. The other alternative is move up 70 yards on each tee and tee up there and play in. For me when I play with the younger guys in city events the 70 yards is about right between our drives. for them it is a wedge and pitching game vs my much longer approach shots. Most of the time they are hit or miss on the short shots and don't score much better. But if they have a short game they always shoot 64-67 without much trouble. I shot a course record a few years back from the white tees. The mounding for drives and the carry distances made the course much easier off the tee than it plays from the back. I had a hot day putting and a bogey free 62 was the result. I play those tees now all the time since they are appropriate for my ever shrinking club head speed. But 65 is my best score since then. You still have to wedge it and putt it. Hence DJ's big leap in consistency when he dialed in his wedges. So I agree with Ferguson that is can be 2-3 a side but only if your wedge game and pitching game is solid.

 

But he would be longer with irons as well. So moving up 70 yards is not the whole equation.

[kekoa]

I'm no expert, but I think you may gain 2 or so strokes a side initially since you may not be used to hitting shorter approaches. For instance, you may be deadly accurate with a 6 or 7i but not so accurate with a wedge or short iron. With that said, once you get used to the scoring clubs, I'd say your score can increase 3-5 shots per side depending on putting of course.

[rangersgoalie]

> @cardoustie said:

> Obee did you get a new driver? Is it triangular shafted and when you yell "boom" at impact it flies over mountains?

 

Maybe POW goes even further

[mjen43]

Tour average from 165 in fairway is 3 strokes to hole out. Tour average from 95 in the fairway is about 2.8 to hole out. Tour average from 235 in fairway is about 3.4 to hole out.

 

So theoretically, adding 70 yards to a drive while still hitting the fairway is gonna give about a .2-.4 stroke advantage on a hole.

 

165 in fairway vs. 95 in rough is basically both 3.00 to hole out for a tour pro. 235 in fairway vs 165 in rough is a .15 stroke advantage for the 165 ball in the rough. So if the added 70 yards takes you from the fairway to the rough, it is generally a wash or slight gain.

 

60% fairway at 300 is very good, so I’m assuming here that the increase in distance from 230 to 300 isn’t going to lead to an enormous increase in penalty shots. 75% at 230 is also pretty good, so I’m gonna assume not many penalty strokes were being taken off the tee in the first place.

 

A 300 hitter isn’t going to hit driver every hole, so we’ll say they hit the big stick 10/14 times.

 

10 x .2-.4 = 2-4 shots gained per round.

 

Subtract out the slight increase in penalty shots taken off the tee per round (Say one hazard ball per round for the 300/60% hitter vs. .5 hazard balls per round for the 230/75% hitter), and you’re probably looking at something in the 1.5-3.5 shots gained range, conservatively. Depending upon how dispersion changes or the type of course, maybe a little more or maybe a little less.

 

The gain will be more substantial the longer the course is though. From my estimation, the upper limits of gains would be in the 6-7 shot range if the 70 yard gain takes the player from 250 to 180 (.45 shots gained) on every hole, and they hit driver 14 times (14 x .45 = 6.3) without a substantial increase in penalty strokes.

 

 

 

 

[Barfolomew]

How far you hit a 3 wood? Love to see your yardages lol...

[buckeyefl]

> @mjen43 said:

> Tour average from 165 in fairway is 3 strokes to hole out. Tour average from 95 in the fairway is about 2.8 to hole out. Tour average from 235 in fairway is about 3.4 to hole out.

>

> So theoretically, adding 70 yards to a drive while still hitting the fairway is gonna give about a .2-.4 stroke advantage on a hole.

>

> 165 in fairway vs. 95 in rough is basically both 3.00 to hole out for a tour pro. 235 in fairway vs 165 in rough is a .15 stroke advantage for the 165 ball in the rough. So if the added 70 yards takes you from the fairway to the rough, it is generally a wash or slight gain.

>

> 60% fairway at 300 is very good, so I’m assuming here that the increase in distance from 230 to 300 isn’t going to lead to an enormous increase in penalty shots. 75% at 230 is also pretty good, so I’m gonna assume not many penalty strokes were being taken off the tee in the first place.

>

> A 300 hitter isn’t going to hit driver every hole, so we’ll say they hit the big stick 10/14 times.

>

> 10 x .2-.4 = 2-4 shots gained per round.

>

> Subtract out the slight increase in penalty shots taken off the tee per round (Say one hazard ball per round for the 300/60% hitter vs. .5 hazard balls per round for the 230/75% hitter), and you’re probably looking at something in the 1.5-3.5 shots gained range, conservatively. Depending upon how dispersion changes or the type of course, maybe a little more or maybe a little less.

>

> The gain will be more substantial the longer the course is though. From my estimation, the upper limits of gains would be in the 6-7 shot range if the 70 yard gain takes the player from 250 to 180 (.45 shots gained) on every hole, and they hit driver 14 times (14 x .45 = 6.3) without a substantial increase in penalty strokes.

>

>

You are using tour stats which aren't remotely similar to the vast majority of people. Most people can move up to the forward tees on their home course and barely if at all score better. As someone mentioned you can get an idea of the answer by simply measuring the distance from the tee and dropping a ball.

 

Of course if you were measuring over all improvement with a distance across the board it's more difficult because you would also be hitting a shorter club which in theory ( but not necessarily accurate for the erratic average player) and that would make a difference. A lot of the final numbers for either scenario depend greatly on iron play and putting which would be hard to measure.

 

It is fun to play games like this though to gauge holes in your game that you can and should work on.

 

Give yourself a middle of the fairway drive of 300 yards on every hole and see how you score. Give yourself a dead center hit green in every hole and see how you score. ( It's a great way to rate your putting).

 

Aim for a green side bunker on every hole to test your distance control and then count your strokes to get up and down.

 

Drop a ball at 100 yards on every hole and count strokes you take to get the ball in the hole. That's your score.

 

All fun games that will help your game and help you see where you have gaps as well as keep you humble. The all time easiest one though is to just go to the forward tees and see if you score better. There's not too many people that could gain the yardage mentioned but you sure can get better at all of the other skills and become a better scoring player.

[mjen43]

> @buckeyefl said:

> > @mjen43 said:

> > Tour average from 165 in fairway is 3 strokes to hole out. Tour average from 95 in the fairway is about 2.8 to hole out. Tour average from 235 in fairway is about 3.4 to hole out.

> >

> > So theoretically, adding 70 yards to a drive while still hitting the fairway is gonna give about a .2-.4 stroke advantage on a hole.

> >

> > 165 in fairway vs. 95 in rough is basically both 3.00 to hole out for a tour pro. 235 in fairway vs 165 in rough is a .15 stroke advantage for the 165 ball in the rough. So if the added 70 yards takes you from the fairway to the rough, it is generally a wash or slight gain.

> >

> > 60% fairway at 300 is very good, so I’m assuming here that the increase in distance from 230 to 300 isn’t going to lead to an enormous increase in penalty shots. 75% at 230 is also pretty good, so I’m gonna assume not many penalty strokes were being taken off the tee in the first place.

> >

> > A 300 hitter isn’t going to hit driver every hole, so we’ll say they hit the big stick 10/14 times.

> >

> > 10 x .2-.4 = 2-4 shots gained per round.

> >

> > Subtract out the slight increase in penalty shots taken off the tee per round (Say one hazard ball per round for the 300/60% hitter vs. .5 hazard balls per round for the 230/75% hitter), and you’re probably looking at something in the 1.5-3.5 shots gained range, conservatively. Depending upon how dispersion changes or the type of course, maybe a little more or maybe a little less.

> >

> > The gain will be more substantial the longer the course is though. From my estimation, the upper limits of gains would be in the 6-7 shot range if the 70 yard gain takes the player from 250 to 180 (.45 shots gained) on every hole, and they hit driver 14 times (14 x .45 = 6.3) without a substantial increase in penalty strokes.

> >

> >

> You are using tour stats which aren't remotely similar to the vast majority of people. Most people can move up to the forward tees on their home course and barely if at all score better. As someone mentioned you can get an idea of the answer by simply measuring the distance from the tee and dropping a ball.

>

> Of course if you were measuring over all improvement with a distance across the board it's more difficult because you would also be hitting a shorter club which in theory ( but not necessarily accurate for the erratic average player) and that would make a difference. A lot of the final numbers for either scenario depend greatly on iron play and putting which would be hard to measure.

>

> It is fun to play games like this though to gauge holes in your game that you can and should work on.

>

> Give yourself a middle of the fairway drive of 300 yards on every hole and see how you score. Give yourself a dead center hit green in every hole and see how you score. ( It's a great way to rate your putting).

>

> Aim for a green side bunker on every hole to test your distance control and then count your strokes to get up and down.

>

> Drop a ball at 100 yards on every hole and count strokes you take to get the ball in the hole. That's your score.

>

> All fun games that will help your game and help you see where you have gaps as well as keep you humble. The all time easiest one though is to just go to the forward tees and see if you score better. There's not too many people that could gain the yardage mentioned but you sure can get better at all of the other skills and become a better scoring player.

 

The actual numbers used (tour averages from distances in this case) aren’t as important as the delta between distances in this case. Tour average from 165 while in the fairway is 3.00, and from 95 and the fairway it’s about 2.8, so for the average tour pro it’s a .2 shot advantage to be 70 yards ahead in that situation.

 

Obee’s average from 165 and the fairway may be 3.5, and from 95 it may be 3.3, but the 70 yard gain still would result in a .2 shot improvement even though he’s still gonna have a worse overall score than the tour pro, obviously.

 

Obee is a pretty good golfer so he probably doesn’t have anything really funky going on like scoring 3.5 average from 200 and then 3.8 from 70 (due to half wedge issues or whatever), and based on his post in a different thread it’s clear he was wanting to know this question for himself.

 

Dropping a ball 70 yards ahead and then playing out for a round won’t tell you much as the amount of strokes we’re talking here (2-4) is well within the standard deviation of a round. It could work though if you did it a few hundred time, but then your golf game is likely to improve, which would also throw off the info. ;)

[RichieHunt]

Lots of varying factors here, mostly the amount of times you can hit driver with the longer drive. The less often you can do that, the smaller the difference is.

 

I won't go into how I derived the #'s since it's proprietary, but assuming you're hitting 14 drivers with the longer distance, I have it as an improvement in the range of 4.17 to 4..66 strokes per round.

 

I based this off an algorithm I created using Tour data. I tend to believe the results would be similar for amateurs, but I have no mathematical evidence to support that in this particular case.

 

Hope this helps.

 

 

 

RH

[MountainGoat]

Working with the numbers in Broadie’s book, I get 2.94. But, my calculation requires so many assumptions, It probably wouldn’t survive peer review.

 

[Christosterone]

As a WRXer, I hit a baby fade 405 yards(all carry)....but it’s generally too long

 

So instead I hit it 218 yards....including roll

 

-Chris

[isaacbm]

You’d lose 1 shot a side and $1200!

First Of all, you’ve never see where your ball landed and that would lead to many lost balls...

For seconders, you’d have to pony up for a new set of irons finally. Guys who carry it 300 don’t have a seven hybrid ! No more bag full of head covers for you buddy.

[Hawkeye77]

So kind of like Broadie!

[Golfjack]

I'd love to see the player tee up from the red tees/forward/kids (whatever gets you to 70 yards closer) to see if it plays out that way (exclude par 3's).

[Obee]

It does -- more or less. I shoot in the 60's virtually any time I play the red tees at any course. Over the years, I've played the reds maybe a dozen times for various reasons (prop bets, playing with my wife and just want to play the same tees as she is, etc.) and I'm usually 65 to 69. At my current club, we play the men's club championship from the "Red/White/Blue" tees, Reds on day one, Whites on day two, and Blues on day 3. I shot 68 last year from the reds. My low in a dozen or so tries is, I think, 64. My high is a 70 or 71.

So, bottom line, my scoring average from the reds at 5500 to 5700 is probably 68.5 and from the whites/blues at my course (6300 to 6500) it's probably 73, so 4.5 strokes. I would expect that I would be on the "take full advantage of the distance gain" end of the spectrum, as my game from 150 to 80 is definitely my strength -- it's just that I'm rarely there after my drive on most longer courses now!

For players who spray the ball and whose short and mid-iron play is not a particular strength, the improvement might only be 2 to 2.5 strokes.

Anyway, interesting to think about.

 

[scores]

It all depends upon the course it you have windy wet conditions and really high rough (tournament) conditions it may negate the extra length.