Shankieboink's 10 000$-100 000$ challenge

[FairwaysToHeaven]

whats the odds on Kuchar. he's finished 5th, 8th, and 3rd in the last 3 years.

[xxjonesyxx]

Kuchar is best price 45/1 (Corals)

[Matt J]

I like JB this week. Don't get any hotter this season! And he's long.

[FairwaysToHeaven]

[quote name='Matt J' timestamp='1428554259' post='11316901']
I like JB this week. Don't get any hotter this season! And he's long.
[/quote]

i'd stay away from any player who's natural shot shape is left to right

[Shankieboink]

I'll put an $100 as a live bet on Hoffman at 38X the money. That's good odds for somenone 2shots back of 2nd and with a guy in lead that has never won anything this big. Still make $1430 if Spieth wins.

Funds: $8500

[NHauss]

Well congrats on the winning week but to go 1 for 2 and still be negative isn't the best start

[Shankieboink]

Okey, small win. This is not the wins that will get me to $100k, but they will come and I'm back about where I started two weeks ago.

Funds: $9930 (-$70)

[Blade Junkie]

[quote name='Shankieboink' timestamp='1428918553' post='11345941']
Okey, small win. This is not the wins that will get me to $100k, but they will come and I'm back about where I started two weeks ago.

Funds: $9930 (-$70)
[/quote]


Well done for recovering your week 1 losses so quickly.

Going to be fun to follow this thread to see your progress over the season. Best of luck in reaching your goals.

WHEN you make it to $100K (positive vibes never hurt anyone ), what's on your shopping list ?

[Shankieboink]

[b]RBC Heritage [/b]

This weeks bets!

Ian Poulter: (23X) $250
Russel Henley: (36X) $150
John Huh: (91X) $80
Jonas Blixt: (101X) $80

Funds: $9370

[tnhooper45]

Thanks! GL!

[OBbogey5]

The winner will be the guy who had all the physical tools at the Masters, and too weak a mind to pull it together. Davis Love III everytime.

[Rille]

[quote name='Shankieboink' timestamp='1429099187' post='11362977']
John Huh: (91X) $80
[/quote]

I added Huh to my winners list after seeing your post. He is currently -2 after 2, I like where this is going!

Cool thread by the way, good luck.

Edit: Bogey on the next, I'll stop jinxing myself and you now.

[ne26]

Cool thread. Thanks for posting!

Good luck and I will be following along.

[Shankieboink]

[quote name='Rille' timestamp='1429185103' post='11371649']
[quote name='Shankieboink' timestamp='1429099187' post='11362977']
John Huh: (91X) $80
[/quote]

I added Huh to my winners list after seeing your post. He is currently -2 after 2, I like where this is going!

Cool thread by the way, good luck.

Edit: Bogey on the next, I'll stop jinxing myself and you now.
[/quote]

I know! What happened to him? Worst jinx ever?

I just put Wagner on a live bet 150$ (27X). He is so streaky... and seem to be on.

Funds: $9220

[Shankieboink]

Bet on two tournaments this week.[color=#545454][size=1] I am going to go ahead and pretend last[/size][/color][color=#545454][size=1] weekend didn't happen... [/size][/color]

[b]Zurich Classic[/b]
[color=#282828]Sean O'hair: (41X) $150[/color]
[color=#282828]Jonas Blixt: (126X) $70[/color]
Johnson Wagner (176X) $50
John Huh (111X) $50

[b]Volvo China Open[/b]
Alex Noren (34X) $150
K. Aphibarnrat (21X) $100

Funds: $8650

[Blade Junkie]

Just out of interest, what is your thought process behind this week's picks ? A few of these guys weren't in great scoring form last week but you've picked them again ?

Always liked Alex Noren btw - great swing and a proper ball striker. Glad he is back on Tour now after his injuries ...

[FairwaysToHeaven]

lets start a new bet. an over/under on when his bankroll hits $0. i'm not rooting against the OP at all, i just think trying to pick low odds winners each week is a crapshoot.

[Shankieboink]

[quote name='Blade Junkie' timestamp='1429706132' post='11414215']
Just out of interest, what is your thought process behind this week's picks ? A few of these guys weren't in great scoring form last week but you've picked them again ?

Always liked Alex Noren btw - great swing and a proper ball striker. Glad he is back on Tour now after his injuries ...
[/quote]

[b]Zurich classic[/b]
Sean O'Hair: Had a good chance to win at Valspar a month ago (P2). Bad tournament after that, but bounced back last week and had an awsome final round (64). Looks like he can be on his way to find something again. Might not be this week, but 41X is a very good odds as it is a bit weaker field than usual also.

Jonas Bllixt: He is up there with guys like Stricker & Spieth in terms of putting when he is on. His accuracy with the longer clubs have been a dissapointment lately, but I saw a nice interview with him during the Masters and I know he has been working hard on his tee to green game and expects a win soon. At 126X the money he's one of the best bets this week.

Wagner: He shot a 87 at Valero Texas open, found something and bounced back week after with a T2 at Shell Houston. Followed him last week and were about to shoot real low first round. He could win or get dead last (176X is a very good odds).

John Huh: The one I could have left out, and he didn't play good last week but I have a feeling from watching him play that he is about to turn things around.

Players I left out: Dustin (hes probably favourite to win, but at 9X I don't think he is a good enough bet.).

[b]Volvo China Open[/b]
Aphibarnrat: Winner last week, should have won more tournaments. That win could have been important, he should be the favourite this week. The course is hard as asphalt and that isn't a disadvantage for him. I think 21X for back to back wins is a good bet.

A Noren: Former high ranked player with a lot of injuries last couple of years. The course should suit him. He has shown in his tournaments so far this year that he's right on track. He could run away with it if he has a great week. 34X is to good to not bet on, in this pretty weak field.

[FairwaysToHeaven]

to all the bettors out there, what do you put more significance on, current form, or past performance on course?

[Shankieboink]

[quote name='HoosierMizuno' timestamp='1429807972' post='11425717']
to all the bettors out there, what do you put more significance on, current form, or past performance on the course?
[/quote]

Past performance is important, but many times you can kind of figure out if the course should be a good fit or not. I probably look more at what kind of course and weather it is, rather than past results on the course. A player with good form on a course he hasn't played at or not played so good at, but looks to be a course and weather to his liking I'd choose rather than a past winner with not so good form. Some courses just suit players so good that I bet on them even if they have shown no current form. A Cabrera at the Masters for example, or Quiros in Dubai (at least when he still could hit the planet). Hot weather, long course and the layout in Dubai is just such a perfect match for Quiros. I ask me questions such as: is this a course for a scrambler, a ball striker or a putter? A fairway machine, or a bomber..

Some players are just in so good form you bet them no matter what. Not all players, however. I'd never bet Luke Donald in Dubai even if he had won the last 3 tournaments and was 100X the money. I'd never bet R. Karlsson if there were going to be windy conditions even if he had good form and recent wins. And I'd probably not bet on Tiger Woods at Bay Hill even if he was in good form, because the odds would be at like 2X the money and he won't win 50% of the time even if he is in form.

Dustin was at 9X this week, and maybe he could win 1/9, with current form etc but feels like it's outside of what it's worth. No, I don't only play low odds winners (to answere your other question), and not on crapshoots. Wagner is at 176X this week, and right now he's up there with a chance (I can sell him right now and make a bunch of profit, but I wont). That's an other tip.. If you bet on a site where you can "sell your odds", don't. Always bad value and you should stick with your plan that's obviously working (unless you get some weird inside information telling that the player got the flu or smth )

A long post, but thought I'd share some more of my strategies rather than just a simple rank based on form or course.

[mosesgolf]

Good pick on Sean O Hair. He has a chance this weekend and is definitely due for a win. Good luck.

[Chris_]

Your bets seem to always be win only, rather than each way. Just wondering why you choose not to do each way bets for the higher odds players, when someone like Wagner this week finishing top 6 would cover your stakes and likely return a small profit on top. I certainly see the sense in ignoring it for anyone lower odds, but 1/4 of 175/1 still returns a pretty good yield for someone like that who might just miss out on the win but be in the mix.

With your $50 on Wagner you get $8750 if he wins. Split that into $25 each way and you'd still get nearly $5500 for a win or $1100 for top 6 (which would be nearly double your total stakes for the week).

Is it that you're just not interested in smaller wins, being content to lose a few hundred for weeks in a row before getting that one win to return a large chunk at once? Or would you go for some each way 'cover' if each site offered top 6, but the sites with the better odds are only offering top 5 (as an example) and those that do offer top 6 have lower value odds?

Just curious when it comes to the players at those higher odds!

As for this week, hopefully Wagner pulls it off as I have him myself Got Blixt too, but it looks like he might just miss the cut.

[Rille]

[quote name='Chris_' timestamp='1429963251' post='11438539']
Your bets seem to always be win only, rather than each way. Just wondering why you choose not to do each way bets for the higher odds players, when someone like Wagner this week finishing top 6 would cover your stakes and likely return a small profit on top. I certainly see the sense in ignoring it for anyone lower odds, but 1/4 of 175/1 still returns a pretty good yield for someone like that who might just miss out on the win but be in the mix.

With your $50 on Wagner you get $8750 if he wins. Split that into $25 each way and you'd still get nearly $5500 for a win or $1100 for top 6 (which would be nearly double your total stakes for the week).

Is it that you're just not interested in smaller wins, being content to lose a few hundred for weeks in a row before getting that one win to return a large chunk at once? Or would you go for some each way 'cover' if each site offered top 6, but the sites with the better odds are only offering top 5 (as an example) and those that do offer top 6 have lower value odds?

Just curious when it comes to the players at those higher odds!

As for this week, hopefully Wagner pulls it off as I have him myself Got Blixt too, but it looks like he might just miss the cut.
[/quote]

Also interested in hearing opinions on this.

Does anyone have a specific betting site you recommend for golf betting? My site often ommits several players I would like to bet on, I could for example not bet on Wagner and Streb this week - but I would if I could.

[Shankieboink]

[s]Nice win for Rose (and for me!).[/s]

[s]$150X41=[b]$6150[/b][/s]

[s][u]Funds: $14800[/u][/s]

[u]Edit: read comment in next post (was win not accounted for on the board)[/u]

(I'll comment on Chris_ & Rilles questions tomorrow!)

[ne26]

Nice win today. I'm curious for the answers to the questions also

[Blade Junkie]

Oh did you have a sneaky bet on Rose ? Lol

Nearly $5K up in 4 weeks ... Pretty good going so far!

[straightshot7]

[quote name='Shankieboink' timestamp='1430085539' post='11446565']
Nice win for Rose (and for me!).

$150X41=[b]$6150[/b]

[u]Funds: $14800[/u]

(I'll comment on Chris_ & Rilles questions tomorrow!)
[/quote]

Wait, when did you bet on Rose? And when was he 41/1? He was 10/1 going into the week

[Shankieboink]

[quote name='straightshot7' timestamp='1430087769' post='11446753']
[quote name='Shankieboink' timestamp='1430085539' post='11446565']
Nice win for Rose (and for me!).

$150X41=[b]$6150[/b]

[u]Funds: $14800[/u]

(I'll comment on Chris_ & Rilles questions tomorrow!)
[/quote]

Wait, when did you bet on Rose? And when was he 41/1? He was 10/1 going into the week
[/quote]

I'm a total idiot.... Geez. I have not written that on the board. And no I didn't have him at 41/1 (that was O'hair, mixed it up). Forget about it, it was a live bet I never posted here (winnings were a bit lower also, 3.5K), so it shouldn't count in this thread as there is no proof that I made it. Sorry for all the confusion!!

[b]Funds still at $8650[/b]

[Shankieboink]

[quote name='Chris_' timestamp='1429963251' post='11438539']
Your bets seem to always be win only, rather than each way. Just wondering why you choose not to do each way bets for the higher odds players, when someone like Wagner this week finishing top 6 would cover your stakes and likely return a small profit on top. I certainly see the sense in ignoring it for anyone lower odds, but 1/4 of 175/1 still returns a pretty good yield for someone like that who might just miss out on the win but be in the mix.

With your $50 on Wagner you get $8750 if he wins. Split that into $25 each way and you'd still get nearly $5500 for a win or $1100 for top 6 (which would be nearly double your total stakes for the week).

Is it that you're just not interested in smaller wins, being content to lose a few hundred for weeks in a row before getting that one win to return a large chunk at once? Or would you go for some each way 'cover' if each site offered top 6, but the sites with the better odds are only offering top 5 (as an example) and those that do offer top 6 have lower value odds?

Just curious when it comes to the players at those higher odds!

As for this week, hopefully Wagner pulls it off as I have him myself Got Blixt too, but it looks like he might just miss the cut.
[/quote]


Sorry for all the confusion yesterday!! (won't mix my inofficial bets here again)

[b]To the questions! Chris_, Rille & Ne26 [/b]wanted to know why I don't bet [b]each way[/b] on the higher odds players. It's a valid point and I could do that, but I have a general strategy where I don't want to second guess myself into be on high finnishers rather than winners. When I pick a guy to win one of the factors for when I choose a player is that the bet is not only based on if he will shoot a low score over 4 days, but also that he will have the head to pull it off if he's in the mix. Guys like Blixt or Wagner has shown themselves to be such players. They are not in contention that often, but when they are they are not afraid to win (and they have a few wins). Where a guy like Fowler has only won 1 time on tour, but overall is placing much higher than Blixt or Wagner and will almost always have a much lower winner odds. One of the reasons I even bother to bet on guys like Jimenez or Langer at the Masters is becuse if they were a couple with in the lead on sunday at the Masters they wouldn't choke and be on an advantage.

The above is the main reason, but also in the same way as Chris_ argue that if I split my money into betting each way I could earn money more often. I argue that in the long run I will earn a total sum that is bigger (expected value) if I only play Wagner as winner. I'll give an example based on your Wagner payouts:

If I play Wagner and he wins on my 30th time playing him $50 as winner, I'll make a total profit of $8750-(30x$50)=$7250. If I play wagner each way and he wins on my 30th time I win $5500-(30X$50)=$4000. I'm $3250 short and in order to make up for it, Wagner needs to place 2nd-6th atleast 3 times over the other 29 games (4 times to be + vs only playing winner). And if I were about to be real "lucky" and Wagner won two times $17500-($1500)=$16000, for each way, $11000-($1500)=$9500. I'm $7500 short and Wagner would have to place 2nd-6th almost 7 times over 28 games to make up for it. As for the times he never win, but place 2nd-6th it will most likely not be more than a break even game at best.

Doing it this way I have a general strategy where I know what I'm looking for, without complicating things or second guessing myself. A positive side effect is that it's more of rush to see a winner than a small cash out from a 4th place .

(I'm not a native speaker so sorry for any grammar or spelling issues.) I will post my bets for the WGC tomorrow, early ET-time!

[Rille]

Interesting read for a newcomer in the golf betting game, thanks Shankie. Your win-only strategy does make sense to me if you stick to it - I've got a tendency to second-guess myself and bet on some T20s and T10s as well, but it kinda looks like a losing game from my results from doing this so far.

What I've found success in though, is betting inside pairings. When watching all four days of a tournament, it's quite easy to make a good guess who will play the the best in a pairing the next day. Of course, the stakes are much lower, but many little streams have been turning into a river for me the past weeks. We'll see how it goes onwards.

Looking forward to your bets for WGC!

Don't stress about your English. It's much better than many native speakers anyway