Shankieboink's 10 000$-100 000$ challenge

[RichardLee]

the odds at which you are choosing are horrendous.

please either taper down the bet size, and stack on some varied bet types, or this thread will have to be renamed shortly....

i was a fan of the stenson bet last season and dont want to see you throw it all back so easily

[straightshot7]

[quote name='RichardLee' timestamp='1432934455' post='11652044']
the odds at which you are choosing are horrendous.

please either taper down the bet size, and stack on some varied bet types, or this thread will have to be renamed shortly....

i was a fan of the stenson bet last season and dont want to see you throw it all back so easily
[/quote]

Why don't you lay some bets of your own?

I don't agree with all of Shankieboinks bets, but telling someone else how to spend their money is a bit wrong imo

[knock it close]

[quote name='straightshot7' timestamp='1432943041' post='11652814']
[quote name='RichardLee' timestamp='1432934455' post='11652044']
the odds at which you are choosing are horrendous.

please either taper down the bet size, and stack on some varied bet types, or this thread will have to be renamed shortly....

i was a fan of the stenson bet last season and dont want to see you throw it all back so easily
[/quote]

Why don't you lay some bets of your own?

I don't agree with all of Shankieboinks bets, but telling someone else how to spend their money is a bit wrong imo
[/quote]Yea I agree here. The odds from a line perspective all seem solid and you can't win a lot of money just betting on 3 or 4 of the top 8 guys each week. In my view you gotta hit a couple guys outside 35-1 in order to be good on golf.

[RichardLee]

any time you need to be good on 35-1 bets, you wont be in the game for long....

and i didnt tell anyone how to spend their money, i dont even know this person. strangers cannot tell each other how to spend money - they are strangers.

anyways - i hope you get it turned around. and dont forget, (+$100), is always better than (-$1,000).

[FairwaysToHeaven]

question to the op, have you considered halving the amount you bet and doubling the number of picks? at the odds that your going with you'll still make plenty of money if you pick a winner.

[rukahs]

Jeeeez. $5k gone on lost bets speculate to accumulate and all but come on.... lol

[PJ72]

[quote name='23under' timestamp='1433153582' post='11664734']
Jeeeez. $5k gone on lost bets speculate to accumulate and all but come on.... lol
[/quote]

He did win $3500 on Rose on an in play bet that he hasn't included in this. So he's only $1500 down...

But it's early days and the form is a bit unpredictable at this time of the season. He does have a proven track record of winning, and winning big.

[Shankieboink]

I'm sticking to my strategies for betting (horrendous or not :=)). They have proved good for me in the past, and I belive they will continue to be so in the long run, but there will always be variance betting the way I do. [quote name='HoosierMizuno' timestamp='1433000802' post='11656070']
question to the op, have you considered halving the amount you bet and doubling the number of picks? at the odds that your going with you'll still make plenty of money if you pick a winner.
[/quote]

You could say I'm already doing this in a way... Those weeks I have more picks, the amount for each pick goes down. I don't have a fixed number of picks so I can't really double them. You could definitly have more picks in general than I usually have, but for me it's usually much harder to find 10 great picks than for example 5 great picks. And I'm not interested in having 5 great picks, and 5 "extra" not so great picks just for the spread.

What I will have to do if I don't turn this around soon enough, is to make smaller bets each week (about 10% of total bankroll). New bets tomorrow (I have a couple of interesting ideas!)

[Shankieboink]

This is how I have been thinking this week. I'll put most of my money on Nordea Masters. It will be windy conditions this weekend and that narrows it down a bit. Stenson is a big favourite (5.5x), and he should be. Not that many high ranked players in the field. Playing in his own "backyard" and beeing a great player in the wind he shouldn't even have to play his best to win this. An other player that should like the conditions and is almost on home turf as well is Soren Kjeldsen. He is in good form.

[b]Nordea Masters[/b]
[color=#282828]Henrik Stenson: (5.5x) $250[/color]
[color=#282828]Soren Kjeldsen: (46x) $100[/color]

[b][color=#282828]Memorial Tournament[/color][/b]
[color=#282828]Chris Kirk: (29x) $75[/color]
[color=#282828]Kevin Kisner: (46x) $75[/color]

Funds: $4230

[golfersafc]

Honest question, what research goes into these picks for the European tour events?

[Afraid2goLow]

[quote name='Shankieboink' timestamp='1433281268' post='11677306']
I'm sticking to my strategies for betting (horrendous or not :=)). They have proved good for me in the past, and I belive they will continue to be so in the long run, but there will always be variance betting the way I do. [/quote]

Not trying to get on you or anything but werent you successful last year by betting a lot of money on one of the favorites? Seems like you are getting too cute betting on these 30-1s and 40-1s.

and in the long run you are going to lose, the payouts are always slightly less than the players odds of winning, the casinos always win in the long run, sure you can hit some winners and win in the short term.

[Playaway]

[quote name='Afraid2goLow' timestamp='1433444700' post='11690334']
[quote name='Shankieboink' timestamp='1433281268' post='11677306']
I'm sticking to my strategies for betting (horrendous or not :=)). They have proved good for me in the past, and I belive they will continue to be so in the long run, but there will always be variance betting the way I do. [/quote]

Not trying to get on you or anything but werent you successful last year by betting a lot of money on one of the favorites? Seems like you are getting too cute betting on these 30-1s and 40-1s.

and in the long run you are going to lose, the payouts are always[b][color=#ff0000] slightly less[/color][/b] than the players odds of winning, the casinos always win in the long run, sure you can hit some winners and win in the short term.
[/quote]

Slightly less? Ya think!!!

The odds you get on players to win is ridiculous.

Shankie, you sound like you might be a pro. I know Nevada kicks the crap out of this bet. How do you think you would do in a pari-mutual environment in golf? And besides owning the market is there another reason that someone cannot put a pari-mutual system in for golf majors?

(What I mean by pari-mutual is that there is a pool bet and odds are mathematically determined by the amount of action that goes to each player, like horse racing. I think Nevada just assigns odds that are so whack they cannot lose.)

[PJ72]

[quote name='Shankieboink' timestamp='1433362305' post='11683902']
This is how I have been thinking this week. I'll put most of my money on Nordea Masters. It will be windy conditions this weekend and that narrows it down a bit. Stenson is a big favourite (5.5x), and he should be. Not that many high ranked players in the field. Playing in his own "backyard" and beeing a great player in the wind he shouldn't even have to play his best to win this. An other player that should like the conditions and is almost on home turf as well is Soren Kjeldsen. He is in good form.

[b]Nordea Masters[/b]
[color=#282828]Henrik Stenson: (5.5x) $250[/color]
[color=#282828]Soren Kjeldsen: (46x) $100[/color]

[b][color=#282828]Memorial Tournament[/color][/b]
[color=#282828]Chris Kirk: (29x) $75[/color]
[color=#282828]Kevin Kisner: (46x) $75[/color]

Funds: $4230
[/quote]

Just had £5 on kjeldsen at 40-1, he's currently in about 10th about 5 behind.

[Shankieboink]

[quote name='Afraid2goLow' timestamp='1433444700' post='11690334']
[quote name='Shankieboink' timestamp='1433281268' post='11677306']
I'm sticking to my strategies for betting (horrendous or not :=)). They have proved good for me in the past, and I belive they will continue to be so in the long run, but there will always be variance betting the way I do. [/quote]

Not trying to get on you or anything but werent you successful last year by betting a lot of money on one of the favorites? Seems like you are getting too cute betting on these 30-1s and 40-1s.

and in the long run you are going to lose, the payouts are always slightly less than the players odds of winning, the casinos always win in the long run, sure you can hit some winners and win in the short term.
[/quote]

This is sportsbetting, not Blackjack or roulette. I need to beat the odds-makers and/or other players. I wouldn't continue playing if I thought that I couldn't win in the long run. I've been betting on golf for a few years and the big Stenson bet last year was made from some of the winnings earlier that year (bet structure similar to what I'm doing here). The whole idea is to beat the odds, and usually it's actually the opposite to what you are suggesting (easier to do that for odds that are 40x or more (as they sometimes should have been 10-20x). Anyway, I have no problems with these kind of questions I ask them for myself.

[Yepyukon]

[quote name='Shankieboink' timestamp='1433362305' post='11683902']
This is how I have been thinking this week. I'll put most of my money on Nordea Masters. It will be windy conditions this weekend and that narrows it down a bit. Stenson is a big favourite (5.5x), and he should be. Not that many high ranked players in the field. Playing in his own "backyard" and beeing a great player in the wind he shouldn't even have to play his best to win this. An other player that should like the conditions and is almost on home turf as well is Soren Kjeldsen. He is in good form.

[b]Nordea Masters[/b]
[color=#282828]Henrik Stenson: (5.5x) $250[/color]
[color=#282828]Soren Kjeldsen: (46x) $100[/color]

[b][color=#282828]Memorial Tournament[/color][/b]
[color=#282828]Chris Kirk: (29x) $75[/color]
[color=#282828]Kevin Kisner: (46x) $75[/color]

Funds: $4230
[/quote]

Good picks so far with Stenson and Kjeldsen. Hope one of them wins for you so the thread continues

[Shankieboink]

[quote name='golfersafc' timestamp='1433366724' post='11684448']
Honest question, what research goes into these picks for the European tour events?
[/quote]

All kind of things that I have seen when they have played, interviews, past results, course setup etc. For this week the weather and beeing a home course was an important factor (as I wrote in my betting post). Both Kjeldsen and Stenson proved my predictions today by playing superb towards the field in the wind that I knew would be here today. I would have hoped they'd been playing better during thursday and friday (atleast they got a decent chance). However, right now I wish I had picked A Noren also becuse he really is the player to beat right now and he also has had recent good form, is a good wind player, "know how to win" & knows the course. So if he wins, that was kind of a miss from me not picking him this week.

[Rille]

Well, not that previous accomplishments has any significance for future outcomes, but it looks rather tempting to go for T10 for a whole lot of Swedes for next years Nordea Masters..

I also put £5 on Kjeldsen at 1:40. He's got some work to do, but it certainly looks possible!

Edit: Looks like Stenson & Kjeldsen are playing together in the 3rd to last group tomorrow. I'm guessing you are looking forward to that!

[straightshot7]

Have you ever considered betting on Draft Kings? I'm not that familiar with it but I think you are just playing against other people and not odds makers really. I think your skill may have a good chance there since average people aren't doing the research or having the skill that odds makers are.

[Afraid2goLow]

[quote name='straightshot7' timestamp='1433609441' post='11700870']
Have you ever considered betting on Draft Kings? I'm not that familiar with it but I think you are just playing against other people and not odds makers really. I think your skill may have a good chance there since average people aren't doing the research or having the skill that odds makers are.
[/quote]

I havent looked into draftkings for golf betting but seems like you would get more non golf and casual fans so could be easier kind of like betting on the masters and other majors.

[ne26]

So close on the Nordea. Think you will turn it around soon.

Any other golf betting knowledge you want to share? I know very little myself.

[Twitch12]

I admire your aspirations, but you aren't wagering near enough to reach your 100k goal. For example, let's say you pick 5 players each week at $200 to win. If the average winner pays 25/1, a win would make you 5200 minus $800 in lost bets for a net win of $4600 Let's say you bet on 25 tournaments. If you successfully pick a winner in all 25, your win is $115k. You would be incredibly lucky to pick a winner in 15 of them. That win would be 69k. That's if you had a phenomenal year picking winners and picked a lot of long shots to get your average win to 25/1. I'm not dogging on your aspirations, but you may have set an impossible goal.

[Afraid2goLow]

[quote name='Twitch12' timestamp='1433881177' post='11720720']
I admire your aspirations, but you aren't wagering near enough to reach your 100k goal. For example, let's say you pick 5 players each week at $200 to win. If the average winner pays 25/1, a win would make you 5200 minus $800 in lost bets for a net win of $4600 Let's say you bet on 25 tournaments. If you successfully pick a winner in all 25, your win is $115k. You would be incredibly lucky to pick a winner in 15 of them. That win would be 69k. That's if you had a phenomenal year picking winners and picked a lot of long shots to get your average win to 25/1. I'm not dogging on your aspirations, but you may have set an impossible goal.
[/quote]

It would be nearly impossible to predict 15 of 25 winners on the PGA or Euro tour even if you can pick the 5/1s and 10/s, it would be impossible to predict 15 of 25 winners if you only bet players 25/1 and higher.

I respect the hell out of you for showing all your bets in public so we can follow along but there is still so much luck involved in order to win long term you just arent going to hit winners after winners.

[xxjonesyxx]

The bets will be a rough percentage of his bank depending how much value each wager represents in shankieboinks mind, picks a few winners and bet size increases, on a losing run bet size goes down.

Neil

[Afraid2goLow]

[quote name='ne26' timestamp='1433777414' post='11711000'] Any other golf betting knowledge you want to share? I know very little myself.
[/quote]

my two cents:
A its a lot of fun nothing better when you have a guy in contention on sunday
B you are going to lose so make sure you are ok with losing that amount, if you have a lot of money hoping to make quick profit dont you are better off just saving the money and investing it.

[ne26]

[quote name='Afraid2goLow' timestamp='1433882172' post='11720820'][quote name='ne26' timestamp='1433777414' post='11711000'] Any other golf betting knowledge you want to share? I know very little myself.
[/quote]

my two cents:
A its a lot of fun nothing better when you have a guy in contention on sunday
B you are going to lose so make sure you are ok with losing that amount, if you have a lot of money hoping to make quick profit dont you are better off just saving the money and investing it.[/quote]

What I currently do for a living, I make and lose money everyday. I actually sit there and watch it.

I've become numb to the numbers. I always know what I can lose at any given moment, so no issue there. Plus I'm not compulsive when it comes to money.

I would like to learn about good stats to check and things like that.

[Shankieboink]

[quote name='Afraid2goLow' timestamp='1433881880' post='11720794']
[quote name='Twitch12' timestamp='1433881177' post='11720720']
I admire your aspirations, but you aren't wagering near enough to reach your 100k goal. For example, let's say you pick 5 players each week at $200 to win. If the average winner pays 25/1, a win would make you 5200 minus $800 in lost bets for a net win of $4600 Let's say you bet on 25 tournaments. If you successfully pick a winner in all 25, your win is $115k. You would be incredibly lucky to pick a winner in 15 of them. That win would be 69k. That's if you had a phenomenal year picking winners and picked a lot of long shots to get your average win to 25/1. I'm not dogging on your aspirations, but you may have set an impossible goal.
[/quote]

It would be nearly impossible to predict 15 of 25 winners on the PGA or Euro tour even if you can pick the 5/1s and 10/s, it would be impossible to predict 15 of 25 winners if you only bet players 25/1 and higher.

I respect the hell out of you for showing all your bets in public so we can follow along but there is still so much luck involved in order to win long term you just arent going to hit winners after winners.
[/quote][quote name='xxjonesyxx' timestamp='1433882148' post='11720816']
The bets will be a rough percentage of his bank depending how much value each wager represents in shankieboinks mind, picks a few winners and bet size increases, on a losing run bet size goes down.

Neil
[/quote]

Just like Neil is saying. My bets are depending on how big my bankroll is. The bets for a week are usually around 8-12% of my total bankroll. If I get it up to $20 000 my bets would be around $2000, right now it is around $400 as my bankroll is only at $4000.

[Shankieboink]

[quote name='Afraid2goLow' timestamp='1433776783' post='11710930']
[quote name='straightshot7' timestamp='1433609441' post='11700870']
Have you ever considered betting on Draft Kings? I'm not that familiar with it but I think you are just playing against other people and not odds makers really. I think your skill may have a good chance there since average people aren't doing the research or having the skill that odds makers are.
[/quote]

I havent looked into draftkings for golf betting but seems like you would get more non golf and casual fans so could be easier kind of like betting on the masters and other majors.
[/quote]

I've got a lot of invites from Draft Kings to play on theire golf fantasy (how, I don't really know ). However, I'm not american so I can't play there and right now I dont want to complicate things for me as I have been a winning player doing what I do now. I'm not 100% certain how Draft Kings work, but don't you pick 5 guys to perform well (and rank them?). So it is a bit different. Sounds fun thou.

[quote name='ne26' timestamp='1433883354' post='11720944']
[quote name='Afraid2goLow' timestamp='1433882172' post='11720820'][quote name='ne26' timestamp='1433777414' post='11711000'] Any other golf betting knowledge you want to share? I know very little myself.
[/quote]

my two cents:
A its a lot of fun nothing better when you have a guy in contention on sunday
B you are going to lose so make sure you are ok with losing that amount, if you have a lot of money hoping to make quick profit dont you are better off just saving the money and investing it.[/quote]

What I currently do for a living, I make and lose money everyday. I actually sit there and watch it.

I've become numb to the numbers. I always know what I can lose at any given moment, so no issue there. Plus I'm not compulsive when it comes to money.

I would like to learn about good stats to check and things like that.
[/quote]

The most important thing (in my opinion) is the type of course that is beeing played. Is it a "long ballers" type of course (Dubai, etc) or is it a tight course, with small landing areas (Harbor Town etc). Once you know that, you can look at who has it as a home course, last years results, recent form, weather etc. And when you have a general idea of all that you can look at some stats if you want. The winners of the Herritage for example has all been great ball strikers (C.Pettersson, B Weekly, Furyk..). Those stats are easy to check on the PGA Tour website.

[Shankieboink]

[color=#282828]This weeks bets! I'm picking players on both tours. Some of the ideas for my picks are based on the conditions I mentioned in the last post. (Also, I don't put down hours on checking all these things. Most of them I allready recall from previous weeks etc). One thing that was bit extra for this week was the U.S Open sectionals. Some guys who are in this weeks St Jude played real poorly, so that narrowed it down a bit.[/color]

[b]St Jude Classic[/b]
[color=#282828]Graeme McDowel: (41x) $50[/color]
[color=#282828]Boo Weekley: (81x) $50[/color]
[color=#282828]Matt Every: (81x) $50[/color]
[color=#282828]P. Harrington: (101x) $50[/color]

[b]Lyoness Open[/b]
[color=#282828]R. Cabrera bello: (19x) $100[/color]
[color=#282828]M. Kieffer: (21x) $100[/color]

[color=#282828]Funds: $3830[/color]

[Afraid2goLow]

Lets go Max, looks like i got a reason to watch the European tour this week.

[Playaway]

[quote]I've got a lot of invites from Draft Kings to play on theire golf fantasy[/quote]

So was this whole thread just a troll for DraftKings?

I think the owners should require a company to buy advertising if they want to send in their trolling people.

All my plays have been in Nevada and I have never lost money from a casino going out of business.

I have to go there or have somebody get me the bet but I am ahead overall in bets to win, even though the odds absolutely suck.