What are the odds a 17 HC shoots 5 over in a tournament?

[DeadLetterOffice]

There are about 4 guys in my men's club that always seem to shoot miracle rounds in tournaments and take big $ in the games. I've only been in the club for about 3 years. I only play about 4 a year. But I see all the results of all the tourney's because they send them out to the members.

 

After this past weeks tournament I wrote the club and told them these handful of guys who claim to be 17 and 18 HCs that seem to have their "best round all year" in tournaments only need to be put on notice. And that I'm not paying into side games anymore until it's addressed. Just this last week we had a dude who has posted scores over 100 on his HC in the past handful of rounds he's posted, then shoots 77 in the tournament. Just a few weeks back he shot 104! And another guy with similar posted scores over 100, an 18 HC shoots 81. The are among a group of guys it seems to be a trend with.

 

I've played with these guys because I'm a 15, so we go out in the same groups and I post ALL my scores, so I know I'm a legit 15. And these dudes are not being honest. Ruins it for everybody else.

[mjen43]

The odds of a 13-22 handicap shooting a net differential of -10 or less is 37000 to 1. Here's the odds chart if you'd like to compare: http://oga.org/sites/default/files/Probability%20Table.pdf

[aarbro]

A few years back I used to play in the Sunday morning comp at a course I worked at. There was a group of Filipinos that played together, about 8 of them. Guaranteed that every week, one out of that group would win the comp. I knew that something wasn't right, so I stopped playing comp and just played socially. A while later I hit a drive over into the trees and one of their group was in the same tree line, coming down from the tee on the next hole. His ball was about 10 feet from mine. I hit my shot and it went straight into an overhanging branch further up. He said to me 'hey man, when you're behind the trees, just use your foot wedge' and he kicked his ball out from the trees. His playing partners saw and didn't say anything. I raised it with the club captain who basically said he couldn't be bothered dealing with it and it was my word against all of them.

 

It's unfortunate that a lot of people don't play the game properly, all to win a few bucks.

[fowlerscousin]

sucks. 2 options. get good enough to beat them, or quit the club

[thug the bunny]

We got a few of those at my club. 15s who shoot 70s in the club championship and other tournaments. It has made me stop playing in club tourneys. Unfortunately, you also come across these people in life as well...

[2bGood]

Most are cheaters and they know it, BUT i have seen a few legit guys do stuff like that.

 

One guy was a 4 or 5 cap and got the $hanks real bad from about 2 years. He went up to and 18+. But he would have little spurts where $hank free games would happen and he would shoot is good old mid/low 70's. He was a classy guy though and would not go into events or bet given how wild his scoring could be.

 

if you are an 18 that used to be low capper these things happen. But NEVER if you are a solid 18.

[Mulligan26]

We have a guy that plays in our Thursday morning 55+ league, that's a rampant bagger. EVERYONE knows about it. I look at his scores every week; Mon-Wed 91, 95, 98. Then magically on Thursdays 79, 80, 81. He's old as dirt and did well when he was working so it's not about money, the dude is just a co**.

 

I don't know what his actual index is off the top of my head but it's much higher than it should be. Does it piss all of us Pro staff off? Yes! But can we really do anything about it. Nope.

[tatertot]

sucks. 2 options. get good enough to beat them, or quit the club

 

How do you get "good enough" to beat somebody shooting net 59s on a regular basis?

[Wriggles]

That's why I just don't play in tournaments. In the last few years, I've really enjoyed playing solo. No 5-6 hour rounds, playing at off times, when I want to play, not when someone else does.

 

I've become a misanthropic old man!

[youraway2]

If your scores are posted in the GHIN System peer oversight should be ongoing. What I mean by that is your club/golf course if a member of the USGA GHIN System is required to have a Handicap Committee who verifies Handicap Indexes and Course handicaps every revision. Without peer oversight slugs will always deceive the system. The bottom line is the integrity of the player/s are in question here. My bet is your course either doesn't have a Handicap Committee or has one that isn;t doing their job.

 

I've never believed a golfer could receive satisfaction from cheating, just monetary rewards.

[youraway2]

We have a guy that plays in our Thursday morning 55+ league, that's a rampant bagger. EVERYONE knows about it. I look at his scores every week; Mon-Wed 91, 95, 98. Then magically on Thursdays 79, 80, 81. He's old as dirt and did well when he was working so it's not about money, the dude is just a co**.

 

I don't know what his actual index is off the top of my head but it's much higher than it should be. Does it piss all of us Pro staff off? Yes! But can we really do anything about it. Nope.

"Every Knows about it"?????? Sounds like everyone is afraid to report this character to their Handicap Committee.

[masamitsu]

We've had issues in our MGA. This year we're going to the Knuth system in hopes of minimizing or eliminating the bagging. http://www.popeofslo...stem/index.html

 

Edit : Would be interested to hear opinions on any who's employed the Knuth system at their club.

[Ferguson]

The odds of a 17 HC shooting 5 over in a tourney? The very same odds as this guy NOT making me feel uncomfortable.

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LI927_9fhm0

[cardoustie]

come up with an index for league nights only. That is what we did at my club. HDCP chair will adjust guys down no issues

 

We had a 19 shoot 81 two weeks in a row. He's 1 kind of cheater. Pencil kind of cheater with his pals

 

Type 2 is more common. Post a bunch of high scores alone or with your wife, kid, best friend etc.... then go low on Wednesdays when cash is on the line

 

We've also dumped high prizing on major nights so there is less incentive to cheat. Used to be $300 in pro shop certs, now it will be $60 and a name on a plaque in the locker room

 

I'm the club captain this year and next . .and was tournament chair last 4 years .. .the stories of cheating and bagging I could tell .... some guys have a screw loose, Can you imagine a guy worth $50 million cheating for $20 in side bets etc

[DavePelz4]

Have shared this story before about a guy I had played with for 15 years. Weekend trip...4 rounds in Lake Geneva...12 guys. In probably 50+ rounds playing with him, he broke triple digits maybe 5 times, never 90. During the 4 rounds of our weekend, he broke 90 3 times and shot a low of 79. With his handicap, he blew away the field. It was the proverbial catching lightening in a bottle and still the most amazing thing I've seen on a golf course.

 

After the weekend he went back to his crappy way of playing and returned to not breaking 100.

[Tcann32]

There's guys like this all around. How some get away with it, idk. There's one guy in our league that claims to be a 16-17 and he will shoot in the low 40's when it counts. Ok, whatever, he just keeps you on your toes. It sucks to play him when you're giving him 5 strokes a side, but it's not like he's shooting -5 a side. There's also a guy that claims to be a low double digits (10-11) and will legitimately break par. He shot a 69 on Monday.

 

All that being said, I've shot a 90 and a 77 in the same week lol. But I'm usually closer to the latter, and I don't claim to be worse than I am to take advantage of people.

 

If the guy somehow scrambled his way to a magic round, idk, I guess it could happen. But I'm a firm believer in the sound a good shot makes, and the skill level associated with that, and a 17-18 hcp won't hit more than one or two of those in a round, IMO. It doesn't sound like this guy does it by chance, and it doesn't sound like it's all that infrequent either. Personally, I'd rather shoot a 75 and have it be a -3 than shoot a 77 and have it be a -13.

 

I'm no longer playing in league. I will sub every now and again when called, but I have little to no interest anymore. We lost in the second round of the playoffs to two guys that my partner and I actually beat because I had to give a stroke a hole and only won by 4 strokes. Idk how proud you can be of winning while still losing, but whatever.. lol

[cardoustie]

The legit dangerous 16 cappers are the guys that shoot 88 with 5 blow up holes. They are awesome as a 2 man partner

 

We have a guy like this at my club. 270 off the tee. Can shoot 79 or 99. He struggles w the shanks on and off

 

We also have a 22, that was a +2 way back 33 years ago (scholarship to Texas). He can shoot 81 or 111 .. no joke. He has the full swing yips

[nsxguy]

The odds of a 13-22 handicap shooting a net differential of -10 or less is 37000 to 1. Here's the odds chart if you'd like to compare: http://oga.org/sites...ility Table.pdf

 

Not to be pedantic but keep in mind that chart is about differentials, not gross score to par.

 

If the course rating were even 1 shot less than par the odds (or a -10) drop off a cliff,,,,,,,,,,,,

[OffTheDole]

I've played with these guys because I'm a 15, so we go out in the same groups and I post ALL my scores, so I know I'm a legit 15. And these dudes are not being honest. Ruins it for everybody else.

 

Are these guys not posting their tournament scores via GHIN afterwards? Does your pro shop not post them after the tournament rounds?

[disco111]

We used to have this tournament problem, until they followed the ABC (Bowling) solution, with their instant re-adjusting policy. You have, for example an 18 hdcp and then proceeds to shoot in the mid 70's. You are automatically re-assigned to that flight that shoots those scores. It has stopped the BS....

[golfer07840]

There are about 4 guys in my men's club that always seem to shoot miracle rounds in tournaments and take big $ in the games. I've only been in the club for about 3 years. I only play about 4 a year. But I see all the results of all the tourney's because they send them out to the members.

 

After this past weeks tournament I wrote the club and told them these handful of guys who claim to be 17 and 18 HCs that seem to have their "best round all year" in tournaments only need to be put on notice. And that I'm not paying into side games anymore until it's addressed. Just this last week we had a dude who has posted scores over 100 on his HC in the past handful of rounds he's posted, then shoots 77 in the tournament. Just a few weeks back he shot 104! And another guy with similar posted scores over 100, an 18 HC shoots 81. The are among a group of guys it seems to be a trend with.

 

I've played with these guys because I'm a 15, so we go out in the same groups and I post ALL my scores, so I know I'm a legit 15. And these dudes are not being honest. Ruins it for everybody else.

 

Classic example of sandbagging...

[golfer07840]

The odds of a 13-22 handicap shooting a net differential of -10 or less is 37000 to 1. Here's the odds chart if you'd like to compare: http://oga.org/sites...ility Table.pdf

 

Yep.. according to the "Pope of Slope" Dean Knuth, the odds of beating your handicap if you're a 16, and breaking 80 on a course rated 71.2 are 1,138 to 1

[Ayoung19]

I only play gross events for this exact reason, and any money game is gross only. Helps that all the guys I play with are close enough in handicap for it to be competitive no matter what the pairs are, for sure. But I refuse to play anything net for this reason.

[golfer07840]

Most are cheaters and they know it, BUT i have seen a few legit guys do stuff like that.

 

One guy was a 4 or 5 cap and got the $hanks real bad from about 2 years. He went up to and 18+. But he would have little spurts where $hank free games would happen and he would shoot is good old mid/low 70's. He was a classy guy though and would not go into events or bet given how wild his scoring could be.

 

if you are an 18 that used to be low capper these things happen. But NEVER if you are a solid 18.

 

I'd also say if you're an 18, but trending south, that it's possible to shoot better scores (because how else would your handicap go down?), but when I mean a low score, I'm talking beat your hdcp by 3 or 4 shots.

 

What he's describing sounds like the very definition of sandbagging.

[golfer07840]

Have shared this story before about a guy I had played with for 15 years. Weekend trip...4 rounds in Lake Geneva...12 guys. In probably 50+ rounds playing with him, he broke triple digits maybe 5 times, never 90. During the 4 rounds of our weekend, he broke 90 3 times and shot a low of 79. With his handicap, he blew away the field. It was the proverbial catching lightening in a bottle and still the most amazing thing I've seen on a golf course.

 

After the weekend he went back to his crappy way of playing and returned to not breaking 100.

 

Maybe the courses you played that weekend just suited his eye?

[overparfornow]

Unfortunately every club has those sandbagging jerks:-(

[KillerPenguin]

Golf Weekly had a podcast on this maybe a month ago where they interviewed the head of the Golfing Union of Ireland. He talked at length about sandbagging and how it was driving people out of competitive golf. Great pod.

 

I don't play competitively (I don't count charity scrambles) nor have I ever been to a club tournament so I had no idea how rampant the cheating can be. Thanks for the stories.

[armin tamzarian]

We have a guy that plays in our Thursday morning 55+ league, that's a rampant bagger. EVERYONE knows about it. I look at his scores every week; Mon-Wed 91, 95, 98. Then magically on Thursdays 79, 80, 81. He's old as dirt and did well when he was working so it's not about money, the dude is just a co**.

 

I don't know what his actual index is off the top of my head but it's much higher than it should be. Does it piss all of us Pro staff off? Yes! But can we really do anything about it. Nope.

 

Actually there is something you can do about it but not everyone feels comfortable with what it takes.

 

We had exactly the same problem with a couple older guy, we'll call him Bob, who plays almost every day. Bob post scores mid 90's and then magically shoot high 70's in tournaments taking money/trophies away from those who rightfully should have won. Evidently this made one of our members so mad that he simply walked up to our club computer and entered 30 days worth of scores for Bob ranging from 75-79. Of course Bob goes nuts when he finds out about this, but his complaining to the club got our handicap committee to look into his posted scores vs tournament scores and they came to the conclusion that we have all known for a while, Bob is a cheater and his club tournament handicap is adjusted accordingly. Bob hasn't won anything since then.

 

And no the member wasn't me (why would I lie on an anonymous forum) and I'm not trying to defend the action's of that member but at the same time I feel no sympathy for Bob at all. Am I a terrible person?

[Ayoung19]

We have a guy that plays in our Thursday morning 55+ league, that's a rampant bagger. EVERYONE knows about it. I look at his scores every week; Mon-Wed 91, 95, 98. Then magically on Thursdays 79, 80, 81. He's old as dirt and did well when he was working so it's not about money, the dude is just a co**.

 

I don't know what his actual index is off the top of my head but it's much higher than it should be. Does it piss all of us Pro staff off? Yes! But can we really do anything about it. Nope.

 

Actually there is something you can do about it but not everyone feels comfortable with what it takes.

 

We had exactly the same problem with a couple older guy, we'll call him Bob, who plays almost every day. Bob post scores mid 90's and then magically shoot high 70's in tournaments taking money/trophies away from those who rightfully should have won. Evidently this made one of our members so mad that he simply walked up to our club computer and entered 30 days worth of scores for Bob ranging from 75-79. Of course Bob goes nuts when he finds out about this, but his complaining to the club got our handicap committee to look into his posted scores vs tournament scores and they came to the conclusion that we have all known for a while, Bob is a cheater and his club tournament handicap is adjusted accordingly. Bob hasn't won anything since then.

 

And no the member wasn't me (why would I lie on an anonymous forum) and I'm not trying to defend the action's of that member but at the same time I feel no sympathy for Bob at all. Am I a terrible person?

 

Is it right to cheat and sandbag? No

 

Is it right to enter scores for someone else? No

 

Is that a hilarious move? Absolutely

[ZenMasterCoop]

I'm a 19 and I once shot an 81. I looked it up to see what I was scoring around that time and here are the scores from before/after my miracle round. This particular course is the easiest one I play but you can see I usually don't score very well.

 

On this particular day I kept the ball in play - zero penalties - which rarely happens. It just all came together on one day.

 

2/20/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 94

2/25/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 103

2/28/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 84

3/5/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 91

3/13/16: Course #2 (71.6/135) - 101

3/20/16: Course #3 (71.9/135) - 119

3/25/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 97

3/26/16: Course #4 (70.0/126) - 96

3/27/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 81

4/2/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 89

5/1/16: Course #5 (71.3/136) - 113

5/7/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 99

5/11/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 99