What are the odds a 17 HC shoots 5 over in a tournament?

[blaird]

Ive seen an 18 hadcp shoot 77 which is 5 over on our course. Now its not a tough course, bout 6100 from where we play our game, and we roll it everywhere, gimmes, and play a double bogey max. It was his lowest score ever. If he plays a solid round he usuallyis 84-85 or so and can float to mid 90s. This guy and I used to have a bet, Id give him 9 on the front and 9 on the back and 18 total and play him in a nassau and over time it prob split about even.

 

If there is a big difference in the hadcp, I will call someone out. We dont have any guys in our group that will post scores real high during the week and then go low on the weekend. If they did, they wouldnt be invited to play with us very much. We also throw jabs at each other, like if a 14 hdcp shoots 39 or something on the front 9 we wear him out for a couple holes on the back about his hdcp.

 

I think its funny that people ONLY remember the good rounds. I know hdcp only counts those but with some of our guys they are so few and far between. People still talk about my buddy's 77 a couple years after the fact, but forget about the mid 90s that he threw up every round for a month or so right after. Handicaps dont really bother me, I only play in one event that uses hdcp and my partner has a high hdcp that helps out a little. I know going in I have to play really good to win any money in our games and sometimes do but its fun for me to play, talk some trash, and maybe when a few bucks.

[nsxguy]

I think its funny that people ONLY remember the good rounds.

 

Not "funny" at all.

 

Ever meet a gambler who's lost ?

 

Me neither,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, LMAO

[SurfDuffer]

I think people who play to handicaps that are false, are the same as a thief. I don't understand why anyone would do this. If your really a 8-10 and your posting fake scores to get it up to 17-20, you suck as a person!! It is up to the staff at a club to police this type of stuff. I hate the bust out rules but it work most of the time. Guys can a have the stars Aline and shoot a great score once a year, but really every time they play in a tournament. Come on.

 

What I've seen is not people posting fake high scores. Actually the exact opposite. After playing with people and seeing them play a low round I've watched their handicap on-line only to find the good scores never get posted. Its a lot easier to stay a double digit if you don't post those scores in the 70s.

[Outlier]

I'm a 19 and I once shot an 81. I looked it up to see what I was scoring around that time and here are the scores from before/after my miracle round. This particular course is the easiest one I play but you can see I usually don't score very well.

 

On this particular day I kept the ball in play - zero penalties - which rarely happens. It just all came together on one day.

 

2/20/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 94

2/25/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 103

2/28/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 84

3/5/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 91

3/13/16: Course #2 (71.6/135) - 101

3/20/16: Course #3 (71.9/135) - 119

3/25/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 97

3/26/16: Course #4 (70.0/126) - 96

3/27/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 81

4/2/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 89

5/1/16: Course #5 (71.3/136) - 113

5/7/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 99

5/11/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 99

 

 

Was that 81 in a tournament? I think the sandbagging charge comes when the miraculous round(s) always seem to miraculously fall on tournament $ days.

[longballjs]

We just had an 11 shoot 74 with 6 birdies...even a blind squirrel...

[Outlier]

OK, here is my clubs story.....as with many clubs we too have "that guy". Retired, about 58 years old, plays EVERYDAY, I think he is about a 12, and as one of the sandbagger hawks says, "he has been playing to a 12 since he was 12". He does post the scores he shoots, HOWEVER.......

 

The case against him, over the last 15 years or so, he has won a statistically impossible percentage of the clubs events (NET). I ahve only been a member about 4 years, so when I first heard all the gripes, and whispers, I just presumed the crowd was just jealous. THEN I played with this smuck.

 

He really is a master con artist who has been slowed, but not stopped by the knuth system. His CON is pretty simple..... he doesn't win with miraculous career rounds, he just always shoots his "number" or very close to it. Part of the thing with handicaps, is not just the probable scores, but the fact that the predicted variability should go up as average scores go up. He doesn't win with miracle low 70's rounds, but he NEVER blows up. You could safely bet you first born child that this dud is gonna shoot between 82-85 every single round.

 

We were in the same group in last year's Sr. club championship.....as soon as it was clear that another guy (former big time DI player) was running away and hiding from all of us, the sandbag genius suddenly started miss-judging the speed on his lag putts. 3 putts on 12, 15 & 17 and "oh shucks"; he and I tied for 2nd with 83's for the round. (winner was 3 under cumulative for 2 days).

 

The point is, dude wins net events not with super low scores that stand out, but because he has NO VARIATION in this scores to speak of. Even a 5 hcp. can expect over time to well over his average from time to time in a tournament.

[nsxguy]

OK, here is my clubs story.....as with many clubs we too have "that guy". Retired, about 58 years old, plays EVERYDAY, I think he is about a 12, and as one of the sandbagger hawks says, "he has been playing to a 12 since he was 12". He does post the scores he shoots, HOWEVER.......

 

The case against him, over the last 15 years or so, he has won a statistically impossible percentage of the clubs events (NET). I ahve only been a member about 4 years, so when I first heard all the gripes, and whispers, I just presumed the crowd was just jealous. THEN I played with this smuck.

 

He really is a master con artist who has been slowed, but not stopped by the knuth system. His CON is pretty simple..... he doesn't win with miraculous career rounds, he just always shoots his "number" or very close to it. Part of the thing with handicaps, is not just the probable scores, but the fact that the predicted variability should go up as average scores go up. He doesn't win with miracle low 70's rounds, but he NEVER blows up. You could safely bet you first born child that this dud is gonna shoot between 82-85 every single round.

 

We were in the same group in last year's Sr. club championship.....as soon as it was clear that another guy (former big time DI player) was running away and hiding from all of us, the sandbag genius suddenly started miss-judging the speed on his lag putts. 3 putts on 12, 15 & 17 and "oh shucks"; he and I tied for 2nd with 83's for the round. (winner was 3 under cumulative for 2 days).

 

The point is, dude wins net events not with super low scores that stand out, but because he has NO VARIATION in this scores to speak of. Even a 5 hcp. can expect over time to well over his average from time to time in a tournament.

 

:cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:

[youraway2]

I think people who play to handicaps that are false, are the same as a thief. I don't understand why anyone would do this. If your really a 8-10 and your posting fake scores to get it up to 17-20, you suck as a person!! It is up to the staff at a club to police this type of stuff. I hate the bust out rules but it work most of the time. Guys can a have the stars Aline and shoot a great score once a year, but really every time they play in a tournament. Come on.

I think people who play to handicaps that are false, are the same as a thief. I don't understand why anyone would do this. If your really a 8-10 and your posting fake scores to get it up to 17-20, you suck as a person!! It is up to the staff at a club to police this type of stuff. I hate the bust out rules but it work most of the time. Guys can a have the stars Aline and shoot a great score once a year, but really every time they play in a tournament. Come on.

 

It's up to your Handicap Committee, not the staff at the club. You club if a member of the GHIN system is supposed to have an active Handicap Committee chaired by a member/golfer of your club. This is an essential part of the GHIN system; provides peer oversight. They should be reviewing and verifying the Handicap Indexes of your members each revision. It is a requirement to be in the GHIN system.

[SurfDuffer]

We just had an 11 shoot 74 with 6 birdies...even a blind squirrel...

 

Make sure that score gets posted.

[platgof]

How much cheating goes on in scrambles????? It happened to our group. We were doing great, and one of our "buds" asked what our score was, and we were dumb enough to tell them, and so they beat us by one, really!

[BigSky59]

Shouldn't happen at all. Unless you're playing a par 72 course with a course rating of 62 or something.... Then sure.

 

Other than that, a TRUE 17 handicap should shoot about 88 or 89 once in every 3 or 4 rounds, that's his potential.

Catches lightning in a bottle? Sure... maybe he puts up a 82

5 over?? No $%@#**@ way.

 

Edit: I wouldn't be too worried about this after thinking about it again, because assuming he posted that score properly, he'll now be a 13 index on the 15th at midnight.

[deadsolid...shank]

I remember( barely though, it was a long time ago)my college golfing days. Simple goal was 45 for nine holes. Didnt have a handicap.

 

We played one day and it was like someone else was swinging. I really don't know what happened and can't explain it. One of my buddies said what's gotten into you? But when we were done it was a 75. There may have been a mulligan or a conceded putt, I really don't remember, but it was going a be a way better score than normal even without.

 

I don't think I broke 80 again for a long time after. I'm sure the odds are astronomical, but it can happen.

 

[Shilgy]

Shouldn't happen at all. Unless you're playing a par 72 course with a course rating of 62 or something.... Then sure.

 

Other than that, a TRUE 17 handicap should shoot about 98 or 99 once in every 3 or 4 rounds, that's his potential.

Catches lightning in a bottle? Sure... maybe he puts up a 92

5 over?? No $%@#**@ way.

 

Edit: I wouldn't be too worried about this after thinking about it again, because assuming he posted that score properly, he'll now be a 13 index on the 15th at midnight.

Your close. Most players will shoot their handicap- or better- once every three or four rounds. We average or handicap on our best 10 of 20.

Actually rereading your post why would a 17 only shoot 26 or 27 over once every three or four rounds. I think you meant 88-89. Not 98-99

[BigSky59]

Shouldn't happen at all. Unless you're playing a par 72 course with a course rating of 62 or something.... Then sure.

 

Other than that, a TRUE 17 handicap should shoot about 98 or 99 once in every 3 or 4 rounds, that's his potential.

Catches lightning in a bottle? Sure... maybe he puts up a 92

5 over?? No $%@#**@ way.

 

Edit: I wouldn't be too worried about this after thinking about it again, because assuming he posted that score properly, he'll now be a 13 index on the 15th at midnight.

Your close. Most players will shoot their handicap- or better- once every three or four rounds. We average or handicap on our best 10 of 20.

Actually rereading your post why would a 17 only shoot 26 or 27 over once every three or four rounds. I think you meant 88-89. Not 98-99

Correct on the typos, multi-tasking... edited.

 

I think the real key is they shoot their handicap once every three or four rounds, which is their potential. If they do shoot "better" than their handicap, which you said they can, in that one round out of every 3 or 4, it should be by a stroke, or maybe a few.... not by 12.

 

If I played with anybody who put up a net 60 or better on me, I'd never play with them with more than a dollar on the line.

[Shilgy]

Shouldn't happen at all. Unless you're playing a par 72 course with a course rating of 62 or something.... Then sure.

 

Other than that, a TRUE 17 handicap should shoot about 98 or 99 once in every 3 or 4 rounds, that's his potential.

Catches lightning in a bottle? Sure... maybe he puts up a 92

5 over?? No $%@#**@ way.

 

Edit: I wouldn't be too worried about this after thinking about it again, because assuming he posted that score properly, he'll now be a 13 index on the 15th at midnight.

Your close. Most players will shoot their handicap- or better- once every three or four rounds. We average or handicap on our best 10 of 20.

Actually rereading your post why would a 17 only shoot 26 or 27 over once every three or four rounds. I think you meant 88-89. Not 98-99

Correct on the typos, multi-tasking... edited.

 

I think the real key is they shoot their handicap once every three or four rounds, which is their potential. If they do shoot "better" than their handicap, which you said they can, in that one round out of every 3 or 4, it should be by a stroke, or maybe a few.... not by 12.

 

If I played with anybody who put up a net 60 or better on me, I'd never play with them with more than a dollar on the line.

I understand what you're saying but look at the Pope of Slope website. Those type of rounds happen every day.

[Shipwreck]

Last years City Am, I was in the A flight (right behind championship flight) and low and behold, the winner fired off 2 consecutive under par rounds......as a 7 handicap. The first year I played there was a guy who admitted to bumping up his HC because he was tired of not winning anything in the championship flight.

 

I hover between a 5-7 but am streaky as hell. I have shot -1, I can shoot +3, will most likely shoot +8 or +9 and the other day shot a 91.....all on the same course.

[soregongolfer]

How does our club combat sandbagging? By telling people, "If you can't beat them, join them." Yep, it's bad. Our pro was scratch last summer. He's a 6 now.

[elwhippy]

It happens all year in my club. We have a hard core of mid handicap players who live for team comps, scrambles and stablefords. If they don't win a prize there is a post mortem. They use medals to keep their handicaps high and get upset if one gets cut. The odd thing is some of them are highly skilled in other sports and would baulk at playing to a lower standard at tennis, squash etc but are fine to play of high hcps in our sport.

[Tasals]

Club I used to be at was notorious for sand baggers. It go so bad all the money games/skins/closest tos and whatever else died off. I left after being regressed out of money after finishing in second and no one seemed to have the cards to show the regression.

 

New club im at has Mens night caps and then weights those into your regular cap for a tournament cap. Its much nicer, guys who are 20 caps and then go and shoot 82s every mens night get sorted out really quickly. They will also adjust your mens night group and send you out with the club GM and the club captain. I had that happen last summer when both me and a buddy were getting vetted.

[BarronDDS]

17 hdcps never shoot 77

[deadsolid...shank]

17 hdcps never shoot 77

 

Except when they do.

[nsxguy]

How much cheating goes on in scrambles????? It happened to our group. We were doing great, and one of our "buds" asked what our score was, and we were dumb enough to tell them, and so they beat us by one, really!

 

:cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:

[Loki]

I played in a scramble once. I counted in my head how many under we were. I found it interesting that we shot 7 under when we only had 5 birdies. I was extremely happy that we didn't win anything.

[nsxguy]

Shouldn't happen at all. Unless you're playing a par 72 course with a course rating of 62 or something.... Then sure.

 

Other than that, a TRUE 17 handicap should shoot about 98 or 99 once in every 3 or 4 rounds, that's his potential.

Catches lightning in a bottle? Sure... maybe he puts up a 92

5 over?? No $%@#**@ way.

 

Edit: I wouldn't be too worried about this after thinking about it again, because assuming he posted that score properly, he'll now be a 13 index on the 15th at midnight.

Your close. Most players will shoot their handicap- or better- once every three or four rounds. We average or handicap on our best 10 of 20.

Actually rereading your post why would a 17 only shoot 26 or 27 over once every three or four rounds. I think you meant 88-89. Not 98-99

Correct on the typos, multi-tasking... edited.

 

I think the real key is they shoot their handicap once every three or four rounds, which is their potential. If they do shoot "better" than their handicap, which you said they can, in that one round out of every 3 or 4, it should be by a stroke, or maybe a few.... not by 12.

 

If I played with anybody who put up a net 60 or better on me, I'd never play with them with more than a dollar on the line.

 

Shilgy my friend. Nice try but some guys will just never get it.

 

 

JJH,

 

You, my friend, will probably NEVER shoot a net better than about 67. That doesn't mean it's impossible that a 17 won't post a net 60. At about a "5", my best differential EVER has been a +2, approximately 7 shots better than my HC Index at the time. The lower your handicap th eless likely you net is to go really low.

 

You shouldn't even be playing those guys with any expectation of winning.

 

The lower your handicap the less likelihood of a really low net. You and I will most likely NEVER see a net anywhere near 60.

 

As posted in an earlier link there is a USGA chart of odds against shooting low net scores. As I tried to point out earlier, first of all these charts represents DIFFERENTIALS, NOT net scores.

 

e.g. this particular 5 over 17 HC guy. If the course rating was 70 and the slope was about average, say 116 or so his differential would be about 10. Odds = 37,000 to 1. Drop that just ONE (more ?) shot and the odds are 1 TENTH of that.

 

But even at 37000-1, with an average of over 4,000,000 rounds played PER DAY, that mean it happens, on average, over 1,100 times PER DAY.

 

1 shot less, differential of 9, at 3700-1 and it happens on average 11,000 times PER DAY.

 

And if you think a 17 HC index will be a 13 after 1 differential of (in this case) 8 or 9, you better brush up on your basic math skills - either that or you have no idea how indexes are calculated.

 

[RayGorman]

a 17 going 5 over is tough, but not impossible as many have said. However, the 17 that CONSISTENTLY magically shoots a 77 when it's on the line is either: Bagging it by using tougher tees, playing in bad conditions, or just plain adding a stroke on easier holes.

 

OR Waiting to cash that check that the Devil wrote him for his soul.

 

My guess is the first option.

[ZenMasterCoop]

I'm a 19 and I once shot an 81. I looked it up to see what I was scoring around that time and here are the scores from before/after my miracle round. This particular course is the easiest one I play but you can see I usually don't score very well.

 

On this particular day I kept the ball in play - zero penalties - which rarely happens. It just all came together on one day.

 

2/20/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 94

2/25/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 103

2/28/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 84

3/5/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 91

3/13/16: Course #2 (71.6/135) - 101

3/20/16: Course #3 (71.9/135) - 119

3/25/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 97

3/26/16: Course #4 (70.0/126) - 96

3/27/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 81

4/2/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 89

5/1/16: Course #5 (71.3/136) - 113

5/7/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 99

5/11/16: Course #1 (68.4/118) - 99

 

 

Was that 81 in a tournament? I think the sandbagging charge comes when the miraculous round(s) always seem to miraculously fall on tournament $ days.

 

Nope, never played in a tournament. As you can see from my scores, I currently do not have the aptitude for such an event. :)

 

I agree with you, it would be much more 'sandy' if I posted that score in a tournament.

[BigSky59]

Shouldn't happen at all. Unless you're playing a par 72 course with a course rating of 62 or something.... Then sure.

 

Other than that, a TRUE 17 handicap should shoot about 98 or 99 once in every 3 or 4 rounds, that's his potential.

Catches lightning in a bottle? Sure... maybe he puts up a 92

5 over?? No $%@#**@ way.

 

Edit: I wouldn't be too worried about this after thinking about it again, because assuming he posted that score properly, he'll now be a 13 index on the 15th at midnight.

Your close. Most players will shoot their handicap- or better- once every three or four rounds. We average or handicap on our best 10 of 20.

Actually rereading your post why would a 17 only shoot 26 or 27 over once every three or four rounds. I think you meant 88-89. Not 98-99

Correct on the typos, multi-tasking... edited.

 

I think the real key is they shoot their handicap once every three or four rounds, which is their potential. If they do shoot "better" than their handicap, which you said they can, in that one round out of every 3 or 4, it should be by a stroke, or maybe a few.... not by 12.

 

If I played with anybody who put up a net 60 or better on me, I'd never play with them with more than a dollar on the line.

 

Shilgy my friend. Nice try but some guys will just never get it.

 

 

JJH,

 

You, my friend, will probably NEVER shoot a net better than about 67. That doesn't mean it's impossible that a 17 won't post a net 60. At about a "5", my best differential EVER has been a +2, approximately 7 shots better than my HC Index at the time. The lower your handicap th eless likely you net is to go really low.

 

You shouldn't even be playing those guys with any expectation of winning.

 

The lower your handicap the less likelihood of a really low net. You and I will most likely NEVER see a net anywhere near 60.

 

As posted in an earlier link there is a USGA chart of odds against shooting low net scores. As I tried to point out earlier, first of all these charts represents DIFFERENTIALS, NOT net scores.

 

e.g. this particular 5 over 17 HC guy. If the course rating was 70 and the slope was about average, say 116 or so his differential would be about 10. Odds = 37,000 to 1. Drop that just ONE (more ?) shot and the odds are 1 TENTH of that.

 

But even at 37000-1, with an average of over 4,000,000 rounds played PER DAY, that mean it happens, on average, over 1,100 times PER DAY.

 

1 shot less, differential of 9, at 3700-1 and it happens on average 11,000 times PER DAY.

 

And if you think a 17 HC index will be a 13 after 1 differential of (in this case) 8 or 9, you better brush up on your basic math skills - either that or you have no idea how indexes are calculated.

 

 

 

A little exaggeration on my point of someone being bumped down to a 13, but I think you get the point.... As someone who works in the industry, I fully understand thoroughly how the system works.

I should have just phrased it this way from the start in my initial post: According to the USGA, no, a 17 should not shoot 5 over. That's such a huge differential, even on an modest-length course with an average rating/slope....

If they do, are they really, honestly, legitimately, a true 17 handicap?

I mean we might as well start another piggy-back thread: Can an 8 handicap shoot a 69? Sure why not.

[jaymayor]

Frustrating. If it hadn't during regular league days I can believe it, but when it only happens on tournament days, he's clearly sandbagging. I have seen both sides though...

 

Two years ago I played to a 16 in my league and played a couple rounds that were low 80's. My lowest of the year though was our 3 club challenge where I shot an even 80 (par 72) without a putter. Flash in the pan round where I was deadly with my 7 and one putted half the holes with my 52.

 

Last year I played to a 10 and made our league championship against an olfer guy who played to 27-30. Our championship is set up where the rest of the league follows the championship match and gets to watch (multiple scorecards are kept). For whatever reason the guy I was playing decided not to count 15 of his strokes and it wasn't noticed until the round was over, luckily I bet him anyways so the 15 strokes didn't matter. But it was unusual he tried to cheat in front of the whole league.

 

The best though was a guys trip I was on. 16 of us, all varies handicaps. The second day was 18 holes stroke play, winner was determined by net to make it fair. One guy in my group was a casual golfer and played closer to a 30 that weekend. The front he opened up with a 60. The back he played the 9 holes of his life and shot a 36! A 36! Most unbelievable thing I ever saw. Guy didn't shoot better than a 50 over 9 for the rest of the 3 days.

 

Golf is a funny game

[SurfDuffer]

17 hdcps never shoot 77

 

Pretty much this. Lucky to break 90.

[thug the bunny]

In my last 15 yrs of playing, I have hovered between 8 - 10. My lowest score is 75, and 76 multiple times, but that's it. Put me at 9 now, an equivalent differential the OP describes would mean I could score a 68. Someday....