What are the odds a 17 HC shoots 5 over in a tournament?

[nsxguy]

Played in a tournament 2 years ago in the A flight as an 8, and lowest cap in the flight. First day, paired with a 13. Guy shoots +2 and literally missed one shot the other day. He was acting shocked, I thought he was full of it.

 

I shoot 79-79 and beat him anyways since he shot like 86 the next day. It was a strange one.

 

To cap it off two 14 handicaps beat me by tying with 77-76.

 

Sandbag City, IL

 

I don't understand. You say "guy shoots +2". I have to assume that's a GROSS +2 else nobody would be "shocked", yes ? So his gross was 74. VERY unusual. (And I also assume you meant "entire" day, yes ?)

 

Next day he shoots 86. I assume THAT is a gross score as well, yes ?

 

'cause if he shot 86, 86+74=160-26=134.

 

You shot 79-79=158-16=142.

 

How'd you beat him ?

 

Or DID he shoot 99 on Day 2 ? And if so, was he still "full of it" ? :cheesy:

[CrushSticks]

Played in a tournament 2 years ago in the A flight as an 8, and lowest cap in the flight. First day, paired with a 13. Guy shoots +2 and literally missed one shot the other day. He was acting shocked, I thought he was full of it.

 

I shoot 79-79 and beat him anyways since he shot like 86 the next day. It was a strange one.

 

To cap it off two 14 handicaps beat me by tying with 77-76.

 

Sandbag City, IL

 

I don't understand. You say "guy shoots +2". I have to assume that's a GROSS +2 else nobody would be "shocked", yes ? So his gross was 74. VERY unusual. (And I also assume you meant "entire" day, yes ?)

 

Next day he shoots 86. I assume THAT is a gross score as well, yes ?

 

'cause if he shot 86, 86+74=160-26=134.

 

You shot 79-79=158-16=142.

 

How'd you beat him ?

 

Or DID he shoot 99 on Day 2 ? And if so, was he still "full of it" ? :cheesy:

 

My math is not perfect. My apologies oh king of WRX fact checking.

 

Point of the matter was indeed, the GROSS 2 over he shot on day one.

 

 

[nsxguy]

Played in a tournament 2 years ago in the A flight as an 8, and lowest cap in the flight. First day, paired with a 13. Guy shoots +2 and literally missed one shot the other day. He was acting shocked, I thought he was full of it.

 

I shoot 79-79 and beat him anyways since he shot like 86 the next day. It was a strange one.

 

To cap it off two 14 handicaps beat me by tying with 77-76.

 

Sandbag City, IL

 

I don't understand. You say "guy shoots +2". I have to assume that's a GROSS +2 else nobody would be "shocked", yes ? So his gross was 74. VERY unusual. (And I also assume you meant "entire" day, yes ?)

 

Next day he shoots 86. I assume THAT is a gross score as well, yes ?

 

'cause if he shot 86, 86+74=160-26=134.

 

You shot 79-79=158-16=142.

 

How'd you beat him ?

 

Or DID he shoot 99 on Day 2 ? And if so, was he still "full of it" ? :cheesy:

 

My math is not perfect. My apologies oh king of WRX fact checking.

 

Point of the matter was indeed, the GROSS 2 over he shot on day one.

 

Your math isn't the only thing that's not perfect.

 

Basically, an opponent has a great round and he's automatically a sandbagger.

 

Typical uninformed knee jerk reaction that, sadly, is somewhat typical, even around here amongst golfers who should know better.

 

Got it. :hi:

[CrushSticks]

Played in a tournament 2 years ago in the A flight as an 8, and lowest cap in the flight. First day, paired with a 13. Guy shoots +2 and literally missed one shot the other day. He was acting shocked, I thought he was full of it.

 

I shoot 79-79 and beat him anyways since he shot like 86 the next day. It was a strange one.

 

To cap it off two 14 handicaps beat me by tying with 77-76.

 

Sandbag City, IL

 

I don't understand. You say "guy shoots +2". I have to assume that's a GROSS +2 else nobody would be "shocked", yes ? So his gross was 74. VERY unusual. (And I also assume you meant "entire" day, yes ?)

 

Next day he shoots 86. I assume THAT is a gross score as well, yes ?

 

'cause if he shot 86, 86+74=160-26=134.

 

You shot 79-79=158-16=142.

 

How'd you beat him ?

 

Or DID he shoot 99 on Day 2 ? And if so, was he still "full of it" ? :cheesy:

 

My math is not perfect. My apologies oh king of WRX fact checking.

 

Point of the matter was indeed, the GROSS 2 over he shot on day one.

 

Your math isn't the only thing that's not perfect.

 

Basically, an opponent has a great round and he's automatically a sandbagger.

 

Typical uninformed knee jerk reaction that, sadly, is somewhat typical, even around here amongst golfers who should know

 

Got it. :hi:

 

Goodness

 

I should be more clear in what I'm saying. It is very possible for someone to shoot a very uncharacteristic round and then come back the next day and show their true colors.

 

I said I "thought he was full of it". Turns out I was wrong and he had an all time day and the golf gods got him back the next day.

 

Sxguy- you don't even know me, so no need to make a decision on MY character based on a post that really had no negative connotations. Just providing an example that shows that this topic is in fact a two way street.

[nsxguy]

Played in a tournament 2 years ago in the A flight as an 8, and lowest cap in the flight. First day, paired with a 13. Guy shoots +2 and literally missed one shot the other day. He was acting shocked, I thought he was full of it.

 

I shoot 79-79 and beat him anyways since he shot like 86 the next day. It was a strange one.

 

To cap it off two 14 handicaps beat me by tying with 77-76.

 

Sandbag City, IL

 

I don't understand. You say "guy shoots +2". I have to assume that's a GROSS +2 else nobody would be "shocked", yes ? So his gross was 74. VERY unusual. (And I also assume you meant "entire" day, yes ?)

 

Next day he shoots 86. I assume THAT is a gross score as well, yes ?

 

'cause if he shot 86, 86+74=160-26=134.

 

You shot 79-79=158-16=142.

 

How'd you beat him ?

 

Or DID he shoot 99 on Day 2 ? And if so, was he still "full of it" ? :cheesy:

 

My math is not perfect. My apologies oh king of WRX fact checking.

 

Point of the matter was indeed, the GROSS 2 over he shot on day one.

 

Your math isn't the only thing that's not perfect.

 

Basically, an opponent has a great round and he's automatically a sandbagger.

 

Typical uninformed knee jerk reaction that, sadly, is somewhat typical, even around here amongst golfers who should know

 

Got it. :hi:

 

Goodness

 

I should be more clear in what I'm saying. It is very possible for someone to shoot a very uncharacteristic round and then come back the next day and show their true colors.

 

I said I "thought he was full of it". Turns out I was wrong and he had an all time day and the golf gods got him back the next day.

 

Sxguy- you don't even know me, so no need to make a decision on MY character based on a post that really had no negative connotations. Just providing an example that shows that this topic is in fact a two way street.

 

Yes, perhaps you could have been more clear ?

 

So you weren't actually offering an example of extreme sandbagging then ? i.e. the point of the thread.

 

You were offering an example of someone actually having a great day and then coming back to earth. :good:

 

I guess the part where you said "Point of the matter was indeed, the GROSS 2 over he shot on day one" and you saying he was "full of it" threw me off,,,,,,,,, :swoon:

 

Oh well. My(?) bad.

[chriswsurprenant]

A couple of years ago, we had a guy at our member/member club tournament who was a 24 cap shoot 78. Apparently this sort of stuff happened every so often. I don't bother playing in that tournament (or any handicap tournaments) anymore.

[CELTIC]

A couple of years ago, we had a guy at our member/member club tournament who was a 24 cap shoot 78. Apparently this sort of stuff happened every so often. I don't bother playing in that tournament (or any handicap tournaments) anymore.

 

I don't mean to sound like a jerk, but he's lying. There is simply no way on Earth a 24 shoots a 78 - no way.

 

If he has a 24, then the 10 best of his last 20 rounds puts him at an average of about 94-96. No way possible he legitimately shot a 78.

[micscottj]

There are about 4 guys in my men's club that always seem to shoot miracle rounds in tournaments and take big $ in the games. I've only been in the club for about 3 years. I only play about 4 a year. But I see all the results of all the tourney's because they send them out to the members.

 

After this past weeks tournament I wrote the club and told them these handful of guys who claim to be 17 and 18 HCs that seem to have their "best round all year" in tournaments only need to be put on notice. And that I'm not paying into side games anymore until it's addressed. Just this last week we had a dude who has posted scores over 100 on his HC in the past handful of rounds he's posted, then shoots 77 in the tournament. Just a few weeks back he shot 104! And another guy with similar posted scores over 100, an 18 HC shoots 81. The are among a group of guys it seems to be a trend with.

 

I've played with these guys because I'm a 15, so we go out in the same groups and I post ALL my scores, so I know I'm a legit 15. And these dudes are not being honest. Ruins it for everybody else.

 

If you can't beat them join them. Or don't play in the tournaments.

[CEPick]

We don't see a lot of this in tournaments but it certainly is pervasive in our Thursday men's league. I played with a guy last year that was a 22 handicap and made a natural birdie on the longest par 5 to start out the round. I was giving him a pop every hole and 2 pops on a couple. We got trounced. These guys are known sandbaggers but our club won't do anything about it.

 

Last year our club eliminated the net division in the club championship and people bitched. But it took the sandbaggers out of the equation.

[jsabatke]

I got accused of that once. I've never kept a handicap, and I've had years where I'm a terrible golfer, seriously. However, I've had a few flashes of really good. One time, on a small executive course, which plays into my strengths .. short/mid irons and wedges ... on the nine holes I had time to play that day, I had a -1. I had an honest 4 birdies and 3 bogies, no mulligans or improved lies. I've never gambled playing, and I don't play in tournaments, but some people got pretty rude about it. Take the driver out of my hands and I've got half a chance.

[ljrad1995]

Funnily enough, i actually played with an 18 handicap guy the other week who shot a +4 in a stroke event. I marked his card too so i know it was legit, he was new to golf and just had one of those days where he couldn't miss a putt. In the month since then he's dropped his handicap down to 12, so i think his days of winning comps with insane net scores was short lived at best. Not suggesting that it's overly likely but crazy scores do happen from time to time. When i was a junior playing my first tournament, my home club lost my handicap cards so gave me a 27 handicap to play off for the day. I had a blinder, and shot +12, which remained a personal best for a couple of years. Needless to say, several angry emails were sent to my home club, and I had to deal with accusations for a couple years despite no wrongdoing on my part....

[nsxguy]

Funnily enough, i actually played with an 18 handicap guy the other week who shot a +4 in a stroke event. I marked his card too so i know it was legit, he was new to golf and just had one of those days where he couldn't miss a putt. In the month since then he's dropped his handicap down to 12, so i think his days of winning comps with insane net scores was short lived at best. Not suggesting that it's overly likely but crazy scores do happen from time to time. When i was a junior playing my first tournament, my home club lost my handicap cards so gave me a 27 handicap to play off for the day. I had a blinder, and shot +12, which remained a personal best for a couple of years. Needless to say, several angry emails were sent to my home club, and I had to deal with accusations for a couple years despite no wrongdoing on my part....

 

An 18 shooting 4 over is outside the realm of reasonability. The "chart" doesn't even go that high (or low depending on how you view it LOL)

 

You don't mention how this 18 capper got his handicap. 5 rounds ? 10 ? Somebody just "gave" it to him ?

 

The USGA Handicapping Manual has some provisions for this kind of improving/beginning golfer. Section 8-4. Basically if the player is improving at a rate faster than the system can adjust for, the Committee may adjust his handicap appropriately.

 

 

Your home club lost your handicap cards and "gave" you a 27 ??? :blind: What WAS your handicap ?

[Shilgy]

Funnily enough, i actually played with an 18 handicap guy the other week who shot a +4 in a stroke event. I marked his card too so i know it was legit, he was new to golf and just had one of those days where he couldn't miss a putt. In the month since then he's dropped his handicap down to 12, so i think his days of winning comps with insane net scores was short lived at best. Not suggesting that it's overly likely but crazy scores do happen from time to time. When i was a junior playing my first tournament, my home club lost my handicap cards so gave me a 27 handicap to play off for the day. I had a blinder, and shot +12, which remained a personal best for a couple of years. Needless to say, several angry emails were sent to my home club, and I had to deal with accusations for a couple years despite no wrongdoing on my part....

 

An 18 shooting 4 over is outside the realm of reasonability. The "chart" doesn't even go that high (or low depending on how you view it LOL)

 

You don't mention how this 18 capper got his handicap. 5 rounds ? 10 ? Somebody just "gave" it to him ?

 

The USGA Handicapping Manual has some provisions for this kind of improving/beginning golfer. Section 8-4. Basically if the player is improving at a rate faster than the system can adjust for, the Committee may adjust his handicap appropriately.

 

 

Your home club lost your handicap cards and "gave" you a 27 ??? :blind: What WAS your handicap ?

Not that far outside the realm depending on rating of the course. And the odds do say 1-37000 at being -10 OR LESS. They don't stop at -10.

[ljrad1995]

After the debacle of my junior tournament, my home club found my handicap cards, and assigned me a handicap of 21 based on those, so as I was saying, I had a personal best round in my first ever comp by coincidence. It does happen...

The 18 capper was new to golf, he had played about 10 comp rounds prior to this one, having started as a 21 capper. He is a good athlete in other sports but was relatively new to golf, so to be fair I'm not that surprised he managed a +4. I checked his handicap last night after I wrote my other comment, and he is now down to a 10 handicap, so I would say he is just improving faster than the handicap can drop

[nsxguy]

Funnily enough, i actually played with an 18 handicap guy the other week who shot a +4 in a stroke event. I marked his card too so i know it was legit, he was new to golf and just had one of those days where he couldn't miss a putt. In the month since then he's dropped his handicap down to 12, so i think his days of winning comps with insane net scores was short lived at best. Not suggesting that it's overly likely but crazy scores do happen from time to time. When i was a junior playing my first tournament, my home club lost my handicap cards so gave me a 27 handicap to play off for the day. I had a blinder, and shot +12, which remained a personal best for a couple of years. Needless to say, several angry emails were sent to my home club, and I had to deal with accusations for a couple years despite no wrongdoing on my part....

 

An 18 shooting 4 over is outside the realm of reasonability. The "chart" doesn't even go that high (or low depending on how you view it LOL)

 

You don't mention how this 18 capper got his handicap. 5 rounds ? 10 ? Somebody just "gave" it to him ?

 

The USGA Handicapping Manual has some provisions for this kind of improving/beginning golfer. Section 8-4. Basically if the player is improving at a rate faster than the system can adjust for, the Committee may adjust his handicap appropriately.

 

 

Your home club lost your handicap cards and "gave" you a 27 ??? :blind: What WAS your handicap ?

Not that far outside the realm depending on rating of the course. And the odds do say 1-37000 at being -10 OR LESS. They don't stop at -10.

 

Firstly, I understand the chart is based on differentials, not just a relation to par, However, since few, if any, guys mention differentials or quote CR and slope, for purposes of these discussions I think the chart and relation to par will have to do.

 

If you notice, the odds roughly double from -1 down to -9.

 

-10 then "jumps" to 10 TIMES the -9 odds.

 

Are you suggesting that the -14 he's talking about is somehow anywhere NEAR the same as -10 ???

 

I'm thinking I'll stick with my -14 being "off the chart" (so to speak). LOL Except as it has apparently occurred - a very new golfer.

 

 

After the debacle of my junior tournament, my home club found my handicap cards, and assigned me a handicap of 21 based on those, so as I was saying, I had a personal best round in my first ever comp by coincidence. It does happen...

The 18 capper was new to golf, he had played about 10 comp rounds prior to this one, having started as a 21 capper. He is a good athlete in other sports but was relatively new to golf, so to be fair I'm not that surprised he managed a +4. I checked his handicap last night after I wrote my other comment, and he is now down to a 10 handicap, so I would say he is just improving faster than the handicap can drop

 

So what WAS your handicap at the time the cards were lost and you were "given" a 27 ? Was it 21 as you say they found your cards what ? Immediately after ? Or did you play more rounds before the cards were found ?

 

So this "18" who shot +4 actually had 10 rounds in ? Interesting. I'm not sure what "he started as a 21" means but,,,,,,,,,,,

 

But yes, especially as a beginner I guess this thing is possible (as I mentioned),,,,,,,,,,,,,,, although a +4 after about 10 rounds is something I've never heard of (either), I don't care how "athletic" he is.

[FlyPhish]

2 player best ball at my club, 15 HI shoots a 76 and a 22 HI shoots an 81...right. now I just assume my entry fee is gone, enjoy the competition, makes it easier to stomach.

[CEPick]

2 player best ball at my club, 15 HI shoots a 76 and a 22 HI shoots an 81...right. now I just assume my entry fee is gone, enjoy the competition, makes it easier to stomach.

Ridiculous. I'd walk out on my dues

[nsxguy]

2 player best ball at my club, 15 HI shoots a 76 and a 22 HI shoots an 81...right. now I just assume my entry fee is gone, enjoy the competition, makes it easier to stomach.

 

Sure, do nothing. Woe is me. Just complain about it on WRX.

 

Members ? Strangers ?

 

If the former, then you know them.

 

If the latter, did you go to the Committee ? Did they verify/check the handicaps ? If not, why not ? Surely they want to keep the integrity of their tournaments, no ?

[nix]

at my club, we usually reset handicaps after the 1st round to keep things more honest.

[Guia]

You got it, the Handicap Chairman can reset handicaps of suspected sandbaggers during the tournament.

[nix]

We actually reset everyone's handicap based on the first day scores.

[Dawg1419]

I usually shoot a 91/95. Best score yesterday of 81. Best before that 20yrs ago 88. I can happen but very rare.

[warfelg]

There's usually some options.

 

One event I ran was a 2 day member-member stroke play event. Didn't flight until after day 1 based on scores. Then (in a likely dick move) the handicap range for a flight was capped at 10. So if the low HC was a 5, the high was a 15. Very few exceptions awarded (the only one was 2 guys with 33's and the 15's had a unusually terrible day). Yea my sandbaggers bitched and dropped out. Soon though the members who didn't sandbag asked me to do it again. That summer 7 of the 15 events were run in that manner. People loved it. Sandbaggers stopped signing up for those events because they knew they would lose strokes.

 

For a long time my dad ran a Thursday night league at a course. He had a very simple thing: You won, you lost 3 strokes for the next week. Second place lost 2, 3rd place lost 1. Last gained 3, next to last gained 2, third to last gained 1. Finish in one of those spots for a second week in a row? You got double the loss/gain of strokes. Anyone sandbagging quickly lost the strokes that helped them and guys trounced by sandbaggers quickly got help. Your "baseline" Handicap only adjusted 3 times. Start of season, May 15th, August 15th. Outside of that your league handicap adjusted based on the place you finished in. My dad started that 12 years ago, and even 4 years after his passing the "Warfel Handicap Rule" is not only in effect for the league but for MGA as well.

[gmangolf]

This has always been a disappointing problem for me. The lower your handicap, the likelihood of "going low" to net gets smaller and smaller IMO. Then you tack on the fact that some guys are just not honest AT ALL and it makes handicapped events virtually a waste of time. Played in a handicapped scramble last year where some team of all 20+ handicappers magically shot 16 under par for some ridiculously low score to net.

 

I don't understand people who take satisfaction in that. What reward is there in winning if you didn't earn it?

[Sean2]

I saw this in one of the golf magazines:

 

For a person with a course handicap of 16 to break 80 (beat his handicap by eight strokes), the odds are 1,138 to 1. To do it twice, it would take the average golfer more than 700 years.

[FlyPhish]

2 player best ball at my club, 15 HI shoots a 76 and a 22 HI shoots an 81...right. now I just assume my entry fee is gone, enjoy the competition, makes it easier to stomach.

Ridiculous. I'd walk out on my dues

 

Only course in town, I like competition. It just opened my eyes. My new goal is to get better and compete in gross consistently.

 

I still have won a fair bit of money in the skins and deuces side bets.

[nsxguy]

I saw this in one of the golf magazines:

 

For a person with a course handicap of 16 to break 80 (beat his handicap by eight strokes), the odds are 1,138 to 1. To do it twice, it would take the average golfer more than 700 years.

 

Guess you didn't read the whole thread - then again who could blame you. But still,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

Hard to believe, with 25,000 posts you haven't run across this before - even here in the beginning of this thread but,,,,,,, in the interest of accuracy, we're talking about differentials, NOT net scores. That 16 breaking 80 would've shot 79. Assuming Par 72 (as I expect you're doing) and that's only 7 better.

 

Also, since we're talking about differentials, if the course rating were only say 70, and the slope was around 120, that differential would be only about 5 better than his/her handicap. Not quite such a stretch now, yes ?

 

And the Pope of Slope handles the 2 great rounds (again, differentials) by using your 2 best in your last 20 rounds (IIRC the OLD USGA chart had odds on 2 CONSECUTIVE great round differentials but I believe that's gone away now).

 

In any case the 2 best in 20 being both 8 better (as you mention) is 14,912-1 if you believe Knuth's Pope of Slope. Long odds for sure but then he's talking about 2 of 'em in your last 20. And being there are a few million avid golfers in the USA I'm betting it happens far more often than you'd think.

 

Not to mention the whole thing started because a guys shot 12 better where the odds were 37,000-1. And with an average of some 4,000,000 rounds per day that would mean it's probably happened ~1,100 time PER DAY.

 

Maybe you could post a link to the article ? :hi:

[nsxguy]

2 player best ball at my club, 15 HI shoots a 76 and a 22 HI shoots an 81...right. now I just assume my entry fee is gone, enjoy the competition, makes it easier to stomach.

Ridiculous. I'd walk out on my dues

 

Only course in town, I like competition. It just opened my eyes. My new goal is to get better and compete in gross consistently.

 

I still have won a fair bit of money in the skins and deuces side bets.

 

These 2 guys were partners ? Did you know them (and their handicaps) ? Did you question it with the Committee ?

[Sean2]

I saw this in one of the golf magazines:

 

For a person with a course handicap of 16 to break 80 (beat his handicap by eight strokes), the odds are 1,138 to 1. To do it twice, it would take the average golfer more than 700 years.

 

Guess you didn't read the whole thread - then again who could blame you. But still,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

Hard to believe, with 25,000 posts you haven't run across this before - even here in the beginning of this thread but,,,,,,, in the interest of accuracy, we're talking about differentials, NOT net scores. That 16 breaking 80 would've shot 79. Assuming Par 72 (as I expect you're doing) and that's only 7 better.

 

Also, since we're talking about differentials, if the course rating were only say 70, and the slope was around 120, that differential would be only about 5 better than his/her handicap. Not quite such a stretch now, yes ?

 

And the Pope of Slope handles the 2 great rounds (again, differentials) by using your 2 best in your last 20 rounds (IIRC the OLD USGA chart had odds on 2 CONSECUTIVE great round differentials but I believe that's gone away now).

 

In any case the 2 best in 20 being both 8 better (as you mention) is 14,912-1 if you believe Knuth's Pope of Slope. Long odds for sure but then he's talking about 2 of 'em in your last 20. And being there are a few million avid golfers in the USA I'm betting it happens far more often than you'd think.

 

Not to mention the whole thing started because a guys shot 12 better where the odds were 37,000-1. And with an average of some 4,000,000 rounds per day that would mean it's probably happened ~1,100 time PER DAY.

 

Maybe you could post a link to the article ? :hi:

 

No, I didn't read the entire thread. As to the article I don't recall where I read that. If you don't believe what I posted you could try Google.

 

I have seen numerous instances of sandbagging and have a very low tolerance for it. It's not only that the sandbagger shatters his HI, but does so under tournament conditions: pressure, difficult pin locations, firm/fast greens, longer rough, and the like. I am guessing the odds have not been calculated for tournament play.

 

So can a 17 shoot 5 over on a tournament? I suppose, after all the Cubs won the World Series last year.

[nsxguy]

I saw this in one of the golf magazines:

 

For a person with a course handicap of 16 to break 80 (beat his handicap by eight strokes), the odds are 1,138 to 1. To do it twice, it would take the average golfer more than 700 years.

 

Guess you didn't read the whole thread - then again who could blame you. But still,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

Hard to believe, with 25,000 posts you haven't run across this before - even here in the beginning of this thread but,,,,,,, in the interest of accuracy, we're talking about differentials, NOT net scores. That 16 breaking 80 would've shot 79. Assuming Par 72 (as I expect you're doing) and that's only 7 better.

 

Also, since we're talking about differentials, if the course rating were only say 70, and the slope was around 120, that differential would be only about 5 better than his/her handicap. Not quite such a stretch now, yes ?

 

And the Pope of Slope handles the 2 great rounds (again, differentials) by using your 2 best in your last 20 rounds (IIRC the OLD USGA chart had odds on 2 CONSECUTIVE great round differentials but I believe that's gone away now).

 

In any case the 2 best in 20 being both 8 better (as you mention) is 14,912-1 if you believe Knuth's Pope of Slope. Long odds for sure but then he's talking about 2 of 'em in your last 20. And being there are a few million avid golfers in the USA I'm betting it happens far more often than you'd think.

 

Not to mention the whole thing started because a guys shot 12 better where the odds were 37,000-1. And with an average of some 4,000,000 rounds per day that would mean it's probably happened ~1,100 time PER DAY.

 

Maybe you could post a link to the article ? :hi:

 

No, I didn't read the entire thread. As to the article I don't recall where I read that. If you don't believe what I posted you could try Google.

 

I have seen numerous instances of sandbagging and have a very low tolerance for it. It's not only that the sandbagger shatters his HI, but does so under tournament conditions: pressure, difficult pin locations, firm/fast greens, longer rough, and the like. I am guessing the odds have not been calculated for tournament play.

 

So can a 17 shoot 5 over on a tournament? I suppose, after all the Cubs won the World Series last year.

 

Firstly I didn't say I didn't believe it; just asked for a link.

 

Secondly, never mind the entire thread but apparently you even didn't read the link I posted either as it clearly says at the top "ODDS OF SHOOTING AN EXCEPTIONAL TOURNAMENT SCORE"

 

Thirdly, forgetting for the moment you paid no attention to differentials rather than net score,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, I don't doubt you've seen sandbagging, I just doubt whether or not you recognize it (properly).

 

Did you ever consider that playing in a tournament a player may focus more on keeping his score down by taking a chip out back onto the fairway as opposed to trying the "Tiger shot" around and through the trees and making 9 on a hole, trying to carry a hazard even from the fairway that he has little chance of carrying just because he had a "following wind". Or intentionally playing a lob over a bunker shot long rather than try to stiff it, just to make sure he doesn't leave it in the sand. Personally, depending on the situation, I do all of those things.

 

ALL reasons why some players play better, or at least as well, in tournaments than they do in casual rounds.

 

And finally, "Cubs win the World Series" ? Ha ha ha. Good one !!! :beruo: