Could a Scratch Golfer break 85 at Augusta?

[Hankshank]

Reading this link one wonders how the chittychat at the 19th on Augusta goes.

 

Bill, slumping down on the chair on the terrace next to Condolezza, thankfully accepting the crystal bowl of 100Yo whisky from the waiter that pops up like a ghost:

- So hey, Condie, how did you do today?

- Pretty good, I shot 132.

- That's not too bad, I didn't manage to break 140 today, had 142.

 

How fun is that, one wonders...

[Bingo1976]

Interesting thread. I wonder if the fact that Augusta is so well televised now would negate (a bit) the lack of a caddy?

 

I have played St Andrews and I think the caddy really helped - there are shots and landing zones in links golf that you don't even know to look at.

 

But Augusta, especially the back nine on a Sunday? You know exactly where to hit every approach shot (doing it is another thing) so I guess it depends if the mystical scratch golfer spends his allocated hour hitting balls or hitting putts....

[flog2]

might as well ask if aliens will land on Earth this year- he'll never know unless it happens and as he'll never play Augusta we'll never know

[Matt J]

The Knuth article on Golf Digest is very interesting and he actually gives ANGC a lower slope than many difficult courses like Sawgrass or Bethpage.

 

He says a 0 should average 81 or 82 from the Masters tee boxes, so I'd say a talented putter with a great caddie would stand a chance breaking 80 even with tough pins and quick greens.

 

 

 

[Andrew Bond of Glencoe]

Augusta from the members tees? Absolutely. Augusta from the pro tees - yes I think.

[AmazinBlue]

Okay, so I read the stipulations, I know some very good scratch golfers and several +1 hdcps. I know one guy who its it a real 315 off the tee and has a great short game. I say there is NO chance a scratch player with no practice rounds, no caddie and no walking the course with Sunday tournament conditions would break 85, maybe 80 and NO dbl boogies. Heck, he'd probably double 10, 11 and 12. He might birdie 13, but could bogey just as easily. And if he doesn't hit right spot on 14, he's guaranteed a bogey or worse. The 7th green is crazy and the 240-yard par-3 4th, he probably could hold the green. The 8th is 570 UP HILL. NO CHANCE he breaks 85. I'd bet $50 he doesn't and I'd bet he doesn't even make par at 12. Probably another double at 9...

[JDCON]

I've broken 70 at Augusta.

 

It was on a video game, but still. That wasn't one of the stipulations.

[benno_r]

The kind of scratch player I reckon that could do it is the older/shorter-hitting guy who puts everything (I mean everything) up the middle, stiffs his wedges, and is fearless with the putter.

 

Gets on 3/4 par 3's in reg, gets on the all the par 4's for a par putt, gets on 1 or 2 par 5's for reg.

 

Means he can still take 36/37 putts and have a chance. 13 bogies and 5 pars. Doesn't sound unreasonable for a guy like that.

 

So yeah, I definitely thinks it's possible. The determining factor is if he is having a good day, or a not so good day.

[Pulledabill]

From the tips, Sunday pins, fast greens, and going in blind? Doubtful as I see a double or two on his card.

[lowheel]

Friend and I were having a discussion. He says he could do it and would not only break 85, but 80 as well! Stipulations are no caddie, no cart, no walking the course beforehand, and 1 hour warmup before the round. Sunday tournament conditions, from the back tees. He said he wouldn't make a double bogey, and would birdie #13. What do you all think?

 

I say no way with true Master's Sunday conditions (esp if dry/windy)...as someone said - the "par" for a scratch Am is basically ~78...

 

no way. its like 81-82 minimum more if windy. 99.9% of scratches have never played 13.5 greens

 

I played Baltusrol with the assistant pro and 2 future web.com players the tuesday after the monday finish at the PGA in 2005. we couldnt break 75. were all competitive pro golfers on various tours, think about it

 

Baltusrol had thick rough, Augusta has no rough, I think that makes a big difference.

 

Yeah and augusta has 13.5 greens 14 on some slopes, balances out.

[lowheel]

Wait can we clarify here, are we talking tournament "conditions" only, or an actual tournament with fans?

 

I played Torrey south a few weeks before the tournament when the rough was in, from the one up tees and shot 81 with new clubs and didn't hit it super well. Qmany shot 69 that day as a +1.

 

Obviously Augusta is harder but we're talking shooting 84 here not winning a tournament and unless I'm mistaken it's not even in front of fans

Jeff, I hate to rain on your parade, but you guys played the two up tees. The Pro tees are not even marked 50 weeks out of the year. The tees one behind you were the taupe tees from 7,051 yards. There's another 600 yards behind those! :-)

 

The ones we played were roughly 6800 if I recall. It's likely they were two up from tournament on some holes yes

 

I think you guys played two up if it was under 7000.

 

So I'm a 4 right now, and I played Torrey back in June from the back tees they have set up (7051) and shot 78. Rough was thick, greens were rolling pretty well, it can't have been far off the farmers conditions. I might not have played well from 7600, but I'm pretty sure I would have broken 85 that day from those tees. Fun fact I was with a friend who is a really good college player at a top ranked D1 school, he played the back edge of the back tee and shot even, it was cool to watch.

 

Now I know I'm a poor example of a 4 because I used to be better, my putting and short game is much better than most 4s due to past experience, and as my driving is improving I'll probably be a solid scratch next year, so I'm not really a run of the mill 4 I'm more like a 0 who is a 4 right now because I drive it bad. BUT, I'm pretty sure I can break 85 at Augusta right now under tournament COURSE conditions (eg no crowds). I'm a good putter, I have all the shots around the greens, and I can get it around well enough from tee to green to score. 85 just isn't that high of a benchmark, I just started playing again this year after like 4 years off and yeah I had some sketchy high 80s rounds at the beginning but since then I think my worst is 84, and I sucked that day!

 

Now as far as breaking 80 in tournament course conditions at Augusta right now that would be a feat. Do I think I could do it? Possibly, but I wouldn't put my chances at better than 1/5. That being said if I was playing solid scratch golf could I do it? Yeah, I think chances would be good that I could. We aren't talking about playing in front of crowds and with TV cameras around, just a long golf course with fast greens, it's not that big of a deal.

Torrey is a horrible comparable. Ive played it from the tips several times and doesnt sniff top 50 toughest courses Ive ever played. you drive it well the green complexes especially post 2007 are not crazy.Beautiful scenic views though! I played with Chris Riley there back to back days and he shot 64-65 and hes one of the shortest hitters Ive ever played with. Go play winged foot in tourney shape or Oakmont or Oakland hills. Those greens in person have similarities to augustas sloped fast greens. ridiculous if you get on the bad spot of a green. Shinnecock is alot like that. doubles or worse are waiting at every hole. I was at the masters a few years back and stayed on the 1st hole in the landing area of the tee shots for 1.5 hours and watched pros get swallowed up by that hole. bunch of doubles and triples and bogeys being given out like candy. average for the day was like 4.75/4.8. scratch in those conditions has about 7/8 of those types of holes. the par 3s are sinister. #4 is 240 on a table top green with forced carry above a 8-9 foot deep bunker and slope past green. i can go on and on. Anybody who has attended a masters to see carnage in person knows this question is ridiculous.

[benno_r]

From the tips, Sunday pins, fast greens, and going in blind? Doubtful as I see a double or two on his card.

 

I actually think he would have more than 5 pars, so a double or 2 is manageable.

 

He has also watched the Masters for more than 30yrs, so even playing it sight unseen, he will have an idea where to hit it into.

 

Either way, the idea there is not one single scratch marker on the planet who couldn't walk in and knock out an 85 is baffling.

[Thrillhouse]

Friend and I were having a discussion. He says he could do it and would not only break 85, but 80 as well! Stipulations are no caddie, no cart, no walking the course beforehand, and 1 hour warmup before the round. Sunday tournament conditions, from the back tees. He said he wouldn't make a double bogey, and would birdie #13. What do you all think?

 

I say no way with true Master's Sunday conditions (esp if dry/windy)...as someone said - the "par" for a scratch Am is basically ~78...

 

no way. its like 81-82 minimum more if windy. 99.9% of scratches have never played 13.5 greens

 

I played Baltusrol with the assistant pro and 2 future web.com players the tuesday after the monday finish at the PGA in 2005. we couldnt break 75. were all competitive pro golfers on various tours, think about it

 

Baltusrol had thick rough, Augusta has no rough, I think that makes a big difference.

 

Yeah and augusta has 13.5 greens 14 on some slopes, balances out.

 

I just don't think Augusta is as hard as people are making it out to be. Is it hard? Sure, is it as hard masters week as oakmont or Oakland hills is during a US Open? No, they're harder.

 

Now maybe every scratch hasn't seen fast greens and insane slopes before, but a lot have, I have and I can handle them without much problem. Would it be tough? No doubt, but I'm not going to 3 putt every hole just because the greens are fast. Also we're talking about breaking 85 here, 85 is a high score, that gives our scratch a lot of leeway.

 

I'm usually the first one to say tour players are better than people think, and tour setups are harder than people think, and I base this on my experience and I think people generally appreciate that commentary. But we're talking about breaking 85 on a fairly wide golf course that uses green speed as it's defense. Breaking 85 just isn't that hard.

[MtlJeff]

I mentioned this earlier in the thread but they literally did the golf digest US open challenge for a few years, at courses like Bethpage from the US open tees the week before the tournament.

 

Romo shot 84 at Torrey, rothlesberger shot an 81 at Bethpage as a 3 index. Michael Jordan, who everyone assumes is a vanity cap shot an 86.

 

The following year at pebble Mark Wahlberg who is a 14 index broke 100.

 

Maybe one day Augusta would do a challenge (lol). But either were saying Augusta is way more challenging than the above courses or the evidence seems to suggest 85 is possible

[Nitefisher11]

Agree with Trill. Been to Augusta several times and it is very playable from tee to green. Yes, there are some tough holes but there are some easy ones as well.If the goal were to break 85, I think it would be doable the majority of the time for a true scratch player. Not saying good players have never thrown up an 85, even at much easier courses, but usually when they do they are pressing trying to recover from a bad start or whatever and lose interest in the round.

[The Pearl]

Well, we do have some base rate case for this challenge:

 

2017 Amateur Results:

 

Hagestad: 74/73/74/73

Luck: 78/72/75/72

Dalke: 78/75 MC

Gregory: 82/75 MC

Gana: 81/80 MC

 

 

Stroke Average of 75.75

 

So a scratch golfer with no practice rounds, no warm-up, and no caddy, is going to be within less than 10 shots of 5 of the top amateurs in the world? Dalke, Gregory, and Gana, all who missed the cut had a stroke average of 78.5.

[Thrillhouse]

Well, we do have some base rate case for this challenge:

 

2017 Amateur Results:

 

Hagestad: 74/73/74/73

Luck: 78/72/75/72

Dalke: 78/75 MC

Gregory: 82/75 MC

Gana: 81/80 MC

 

 

Stroke Average of 75.75

 

So a scratch golfer with no practice rounds, no warm-up, and no caddy, is going to be within less than 10 shots of 5 of the top amateurs in the world? Dalke, Gregory, and Gana, all who missed the cut had a stroke average of 78.5.

 

In the tournament, our scratch doesn't have to deal with cameras and crowds and everything that goes along with playing in the masters. He's just going out and playing the golf course. Plus the weather was absolutely brutal in the early rounds this past year.

[umassgolfer]

If he's playing to a "par" of 85, I'd think the course would set-up as below. That gives lots of room for a punch-out, or chip + 2 putts or a 3-putt on most holes.

 

1 - Par 5

2- Par 5

3 - Par 4

4 - Par 4

5 - Par 5

6 - Par 4

7 - Par 5

8 - Par 5

9 - Par 5

Out: Par 42

10: Par 5

11: Par 5

12: Par 4

13: Par 5

14: Par 5

15: Par 5

16: Par 4

17: Par 5

18: Par 5

In: Par 43

Total: Par 85

 

The difference would be him not trying to play to the actual par, which would likely lead to blowup holes. It would not be how I'd choose to play ANGC on my first and probably time out there, but for the sake of this argument seems very doable for a player in control of his 100 yd and in game.

[The Pearl]

Well, we do have some base rate case for this challenge:

 

2017 Amateur Results:

 

Hagestad: 74/73/74/73

Luck: 78/72/75/72

Dalke: 78/75 MC

Gregory: 82/75 MC

Gana: 81/80 MC

 

 

Stroke Average of 75.75

 

So a scratch golfer with no practice rounds, no warm-up, and no caddy, is going to be within less than 10 shots of 5 of the top amateurs in the world? Dalke, Gregory, and Gana, all who missed the cut had a stroke average of 78.5.

 

In the tournament, our scratch doesn't have to deal with cameras and crowds and everything that goes along with playing in the masters. He's just going out and playing the golf course. Plus the weather was absolutely brutal in the early rounds this past year.

 

 

Are you going to control the challenge for weather or play as the course presents itself? Is the challenge going to wait for 70 degrees with zero wind?

 

I don't disagree with the "tournament pressure", but these guys are not void of world class tournament experience. The U.S. Amateur, NCAA Championship, etc. Not to mention they have practiced on the course and have at least some pre-tournament time to process the stimulus. To expect the scratch golfer to roll down Magnolia Lane, trunk slam and head to the first tee (1 hr. warm up) without some serious nerves would be preposterous. The real question is does it cost the world class amateur's more strokes due to playing in the Masters vs. the regular Joe just setting foot on Augusta? It seems to me that would be impossible to derive a workable statistic, but it certainly is not 100% biased in favor of our scratch challenger.

[rawdog]

The Knuth article on Golf Digest is very interesting and he actually gives ANGC a lower slope than many difficult courses like Seagrass or Bethpage.

 

He says a 0 should average 81 or 82 from the Masters tee boxes, so I'd say a talented putter with a great caddie would stand a chance breaking 80 even with tough pins and quick greens.

 

Good to see someone shares my logic. It's math and percentages. These guys throwing around anecdotes kills me.

 

Looking for comps at other tough courses? Why not just look at the actual rating of the course? Or in this case, the unofficial rating by the guy who basically created the rating system.

[BottleCap]

Wait can we clarify here, are we talking tournament "conditions" only, or an actual tournament with fans?

 

I played Torrey south a few weeks before the tournament when the rough was in, from the one up tees and shot 81 with new clubs and didn't hit it super well. Qmany shot 69 that day as a +1.

 

Obviously Augusta is harder but we're talking shooting 84 here not winning a tournament and unless I'm mistaken it's not even in front of fans

Jeff, I hate to rain on your parade, but you guys played the two up tees. The Pro tees are not even marked 50 weeks out of the year. The tees one behind you were the taupe tees from 7,051 yards. There's another 600 yards behind those! :-)

 

The ones we played were roughly 6800 if I recall. It's likely they were two up from tournament on some holes yes

 

I think you guys played two up if it was under 7000.

 

So I'm a 4 right now, and I played Torrey back in June from the back tees they have set up (7051) and shot 78. Rough was thick, greens were rolling pretty well, it can't have been far off the farmers conditions. I might not have played well from 7600, but I'm pretty sure I would have broken 85 that day from those tees. Fun fact I was with a friend who is a really good college player at a top ranked D1 school, he played the back edge of the back tee and shot even, it was cool to watch.

 

Now I know I'm a poor example of a 4 because I used to be better, my putting and short game is much better than most 4s due to past experience, and as my driving is improving I'll probably be a solid scratch next year, so I'm not really a run of the mill 4 I'm more like a 0 who is a 4 right now because I drive it bad. BUT, I'm pretty sure I can break 85 at Augusta right now under tournament COURSE conditions (eg no crowds). I'm a good putter, I have all the shots around the greens, and I can get it around well enough from tee to green to score. 85 just isn't that high of a benchmark, I just started playing again this year after like 4 years off and yeah I had some sketchy high 80s rounds at the beginning but since then I think my worst is 84, and I sucked that day!

 

Now as far as breaking 80 in tournament course conditions at Augusta right now that would be a feat. Do I think I could do it? Possibly, but I wouldn't put my chances at better than 1/5. That being said if I was playing solid scratch golf could I do it? Yeah, I think chances would be good that I could. We aren't talking about playing in front of crowds and with TV cameras around, just a long golf course with fast greens, it's not that big of a deal.

Torrey is a horrible comparable. Ive played it from the tips several times and doesnt sniff top 50 toughest courses Ive ever played. you drive it well the green complexes especially post 2007 are not crazy.Beautiful scenic views though! I played with Chris Riley there back to back days and he shot 64-65 and hes one of the shortest hitters Ive ever played with. Go play winged foot in tourney shape or Oakmont or Oakland hills. Those greens in person have similarities to augustas sloped fast greens. ridiculous if you get on the bad spot of a green. Shinnecock is alot like that. doubles or worse are waiting at every hole. I was at the masters a few years back and stayed on the 1st hole in the landing area of the tee shots for 1.5 hours and watched pros get swallowed up by that hole. bunch of doubles and triples and bogeys being given out like candy. average for the day was like 4.75/4.8. scratch in those conditions has about 7/8 of those types of holes. the par 3s are sinister. #4 is 240 on a table top green with forced carry above a 8-9 foot deep bunker and slope past green. i can go on and on. Anybody who has attended a masters to see carnage in person knows this question is ridiculous.

 

This is the problem with Torrey, everyone thinks they've played it from the tips due to how the tee boxes are setup. This course is a monster, 12 and 4 give tour players fits.

[Thrillhouse]

Well, we do have some base rate case for this challenge:

 

2017 Amateur Results:

 

Hagestad: 74/73/74/73

Luck: 78/72/75/72

Dalke: 78/75 MC

Gregory: 82/75 MC

Gana: 81/80 MC

 

 

Stroke Average of 75.75

 

So a scratch golfer with no practice rounds, no warm-up, and no caddy, is going to be within less than 10 shots of 5 of the top amateurs in the world? Dalke, Gregory, and Gana, all who missed the cut had a stroke average of 78.5.

 

In the tournament, our scratch doesn't have to deal with cameras and crowds and everything that goes along with playing in the masters. He's just going out and playing the golf course. Plus the weather was absolutely brutal in the early rounds this past year.

 

 

Are you going to control the challenge for weather or play as the course presents itself? Is the challenge going to wait for 70 degrees with zero wind?

 

I don't disagree with the "tournament pressure", but these guys are not void of world class tournament experience. The U.S. Amateur, NCAA Championship, etc. Not to mention they have practiced on the course and have at least some pre-tournament time to process the stimulus. To expect the scratch golfer to roll down Magnolia Lane, trunk slam and head to the first tee (1 hr. warm up) without some serious nerves would be preposterous. The real question is does it cost the world class amateur's more strokes due to playing in the Masters vs. the regular Joe just setting foot on Augusta? It seems to me that would be impossible to derive a workable statistic, but it certainly is not 100% biased in favor of our scratch challenger.

 

Weather? No, but our scratch isn't playing the masters tournament, he's just going out and playing the golf course.

[widow-maker]

If you put 100 scratch golfers from around the country on the course the day after the Masters, 85 would be broken and there would be some guys under 80. Augusta isn't a penal golf course, in the sense that you take penalty strokes. So, it's really the challenge of handling the greens and the length. Some of those 100 players could do that. I've known guys that I would have absolutely bet on them to break 85 and 40 years ago I'd have bet on myself. Not all scratch players are alike and there are some that can really play and have a ton of experience playing in amateur events.

[BLLDWG23]

Interesting thread. I wonder if the fact that Augusta is so well televised now would negate (a bit) the lack of a caddy?

 

I have played St Andrews and I think the caddy really helped - there are shots and landing zones in links golf that you don't even know to look at.

 

But Augusta, especially the back nine on a Sunday? You know exactly where to hit every approach shot (doing it is another thing) so I guess it depends if the mystical scratch golfer spends his allocated hour hitting balls or hitting putts....

 

I wouldn't help. TV doesn't do the slopes and the layout justice. I've been a few times and you say to yourself it doesn't look like this on TV. On the #2 tee box it looks like they are hitting the ball from another state. On #18 it looks like you are trying to hit driver down a hallway for the first 150 yards. The greens are so much more undulating in real life than on TV. I remember standing on the back of the #18 tee box and asking my friend who was a scratch golfer at the time (i was probably a 2-3 then) Where would you aim etc?? He said I could probably tee up 10 balls and only 2 wouldn't hit a tree.

[Rich Douglas]

As the course is set up the rest of the season: certainly a possibility. The greens are slower, the fairways are softer, etc. Also, the championship tees are not used.

 

As the course is set up for the Master's: Small possibility. One of the golf magazines sponsored a few guys--one of whom (Tony Romo?) was scratch--to play Torrey Pines right before the U.S. Open. No one broke 100. The Master's, typically, sees lower scores than the Open, so there's that.

[75or95]

100%. My father-in-law, played at Ole Miss, thought about turning pro but "couldn't putt." Still makes everything he looks at when we play but I understand what he's talking about, can't putt like a pro. He volunteered at the Masters Tournament for 20 years and subsequently was allowed to play sometime after the tourney. Consistently broke 80 and topped out at 71. He's a "traveling 1" so sure, it's possible.

[johnnylongballz72]

He could do it easy! Especially if you are playing to break 85 and not to shoot even. Keep it in play, play conservative around the greens, accept a few three putts. He breaks 80 if he plays good, breaks 85 if he doesn't.

[J Bez]

Not a chance w/o a practice round. A while back there was a good article on the difference between a PGA pro and a scratch player. Scratch players throw out half their score in getting to "scratch". Then on the half that count they are shooting those scores (at least most are) on a Saturday AM playing with their buddies on a course set up to keep play moving. Scratch player could easily go out and shoot 74-75 on their home course during the week - no way that round translates to 84 at Agusta under tournament conditions

[TheCityGame]

What are tournament conditions?

 

Do we mean 30 yards of roll?

 

Perfectly manicured bunkers?

 

Perfectly rolled greens?

 

No ball marks? No divots?

 

No real rough at Augusta?

 

Greens fast enough you can't put a pin on a slope over 2%? (if you've played enough golf, you've played some course where you've rolled a putt up to a hole and had it stop and roll back to your feet. I've seen a lot of putts roll way past the holes at Augusta, or catch some slope that sent it off the green, but I don't recall ever seeing a ball roll back to someones feet after getting to the hole. I've seen it in US Opens.)

 

The mythologizing of the difficulty of these golf courses goes hand-in-hand with the mythologizing of professional golfers, like they're supposed to be 10-12 strokes better than a scratch. What a joke.

 

 

Give me 10 scratch golfers in this scenario, 9 of them break 85. 1/2 of them break 80.

[RobotDoctor]

Of all the people who believe that Augusta National isn't that difficult of a course from tee to green how many have ever been to Augusta National? I was there for the Monday practice round in 2015 and what struck me were two things. 1) There is hardly a level lie to be found at The National. 2) The course has more elevation changes than I imagined watching many Masters telecasts. The difficulty is the approach shots and where the tee shot is placed on many holes. The greens are very undulating and very fast in tournament conditions.

 

My first question is where is the scratch golfer playing their rounds at? If it is some wide open easy muny or is it a difficult, tight, long and difficult challenge of a course. Under these conditions: never played there, 1 hour practice, no caddie, no cart and playing from the back tees the scratch easy track muny player has absolutely no chance to break 85. It the player is scratch from the difficult course and if the player can putt great then this golfer most likely will break 85, maybe sniff short of 80. The National may look easy but it is long and precision is an absolute must!