Could a Scratch Golfer break 85 at Augusta?

[lchang]

6 hours ago, bladehunter said:

Good grief.  0.05% ?  Would happen way more often than that.  85.... you’re saying 13 bogeys or more for a true scratch player ? That’s 5 good holes. Keep in mind we have reachable par 5s. And 4 par 3s.  Nearly every scratch player on earth has a running average that is under par on par 3s and par 5s.  85 is just too high.  80 would make your claim hugely more believable. But 85 just isn’t going to hold water. 

 

To be clear, I haven't argued either way on the title topic.  When you say "your claim", you're addressing that to me?  My claim is that if we interpret "could" as greater-than-zero-percent-chance, it's a meaningless conversation.  I'm suggesting it's more meaningful to define "could" as at least 1-in-3 chance.  Or 1-in-6.  Or 1-in-10.  NOT 1-in-[much bigger number].

 

Maybe "your claim" was addressed at benno_r.

 

[bladehunter]

1 hour ago, 8milespast said:

 

....par 3s are by far the hardest holes, esp when you're playing from the tips

Disagree for me. If you’re a strong iron player par 3s aren’t the enemy.  And my home course has a 212-221 ( depending on pin ) yarder over  water.  

[bladehunter]

21 minutes ago, lchang said:

 

To be clear, I haven't argued either way on the title topic.  When you say "your claim", you're addressing that to me?  My claim is that if we interpret "could" as greater-than-zero-percent-chance, it's a meaningless conversation.  I'm suggesting it's more meaningful to define "could" as at least 1-in-3 chance.  Or 1-in-6.  Or 1-in-10.  NOT 1-in-[much bigger number].

 

Maybe "your claim" was addressed at benno_r.

 

No more to you really. But I suppose to both.  The original post doesn’t speak to odds really. Just assumes it can’t be done.   But I’ll bite and guess that 40 -50 % of the time conservatively  a true scratch player breaks 85 barring some swing change or bad weather day etc.  as i said before if you changed it to 80 I think the odds drop quite a bit.  Scratch guys aren’t pushing 90 many days in their life.  On any course from any length.  

[bladehunter]

1 hour ago, Shilgy said:

It would, of course, depend on the course played and the player tendencies. Tour boys are playing more difficult par 3’s(and the others as well) than a large majority of us.

Right. I’m not trying to draw that comparison.  Just saying my level.  I’d be shocked if someone was lower handicap than me and wasn’t under par on average somewhere.   

[benno_r]

2 hours ago, bladehunter said:

No more to you really. But I suppose to both.  The original post doesn’t speak to odds really. Just assumes it can’t be done.   But I’ll bite and guess that 40 -50 % of the time conservatively  a true scratch player breaks 85 barring some swing change or bad weather day etc.  as i said before if you changed it to 80 I think the odds drop quite a bit.  Scratch guys aren’t pushing 90 many days in their life.  On any course from any length.  

 

That's kind of my point. If there is 1 scratch golfer in the world who can do it, it can be done. Either way, we both agree it's well more than 1 who could.

Edited September 3, 2020 by benno_r

[isaacbm]

This thread was funny. I can’t believe that people don’t understand how ridiculous the original premise was. But let’s just say for arguments sake that  the day after the masters we held a one day tournament with 100 scratch golfers. Let’s say for some idiotic reason nobody was allowed a caddy and nobody had ever played the course. Fine. Are you guys honestly telling me that you think not one person in 100 would shoot 84 or lower?

i’m currently a plus one. I’ve played over 700 golf courses since I’ve become a scratch golfer. I have never once shot over 85. I’ve played some of the hardest rated golf courses in the world. Course’s sloped over 150 at 7700 yards. I can think of only a handful of times in the last 30 years that I’ve shot over 80. (As in 81 or 82) Anybody who thinks that not one of those hundred hypothetical players could break 85 must be completely out of their mind. 
i’ve never played Augusta, but of all the golf courses in the world I haven’t played that I feel like I know quite well it would be at the top of the list. I could probably draw you accurate green complexes for every single hole and I’ve never been there! 
 

and a caddie? Lol! Come on. Most people would play worse with a caddy because they’ve never played with a Caddy. The idea that somehow a caddy is going to significantly improve your score is completely ridiculous.
 

as a scratch golfer, I don’t think most people have any idea how bad shooting five over the rating is. When I shoot five over the course rating I literally feel like I’ve forgotten how to play!   Please show me some of these “scratch” golfers that somehow can’t break 85. Either they are completely lying about their ability or we should throw the entire handicap system out the window.  You’re either a scratch or you’re not. 

[mahonie]

From an old book I’ve got, written by Peter Dobereiner, ‘The Glorious World of Golf,’ I remember a passage talking about the great thing about Augusta was that it was quite easy for a pro to shoot par, the big issue was trying to break par. Wide fairways and big greens allowed a good player to shoot par with some ease. However, because of the difficulties of the greens, you needed to be in the right place on the green to have a makeable putt. To be in the right place on the green, you needed to be in the right part of the fairway off the tee. Back in the day, Augusta used to be a very strategic course. With modern equipment that is no longer the case and it’s only defence is to speed the greens up.

[smashdn]

Exactly, it is a "second shot" golf course.  It was much more so than now when it was wider and trees less encroaching.

 

Interesting take on architecture.  Wide, relatively un-demanding fairways to just hit, but if you want to be in a spot to attack the green with your next shot you better have driven into the right spot in that fairway.  It seems to work really well there.

 

But oddly enough, when that mindset is employed elsewhere it is not well received by the general golfing cognoscenti.  Bandon for instance.  There are a large group of folks that just "don't get" that brand of course design.  The hard par-easy bogey, don't punish a wayward shot so much as just you end up in a spot where it is impossible to score well but you can still advance the ball type of place.

 

I think Augusta has drifted away from being as strategic as it was when first designed and more penal but still way more strategic than 98% of the other tour courses. 

[widow-maker]

21 hours ago, isaacbm said:

This thread was funny. I can’t believe that people don’t understand how ridiculous the original premise was. But let’s just say for arguments sake that  the day after the masters we held a one day tournament with 100 scratch golfers. Let’s say for some idiotic reason nobody was allowed a caddy and nobody had ever played the course. Fine. Are you guys honestly telling me that you think not one person in 100 would shoot 84 or lower?

i’m currently a plus one. I’ve played over 700 golf courses since I’ve become a scratch golfer. I have never once shot over 85. I’ve played some of the hardest rated golf courses in the world. Course’s sloped over 150 at 7700 yards. I can think of only a handful of times in the last 30 years that I’ve shot over 80. (As in 81 or 82) Anybody who thinks that not one of those hundred hypothetical players could break 85 must be completely out of their mind. 
i’ve never played Augusta, but of all the golf courses in the world I haven’t played that I feel like I know quite well it would be at the top of the list. I could probably draw you accurate green complexes for every single hole and I’ve never been there! 
 

and a caddie? Lol! Come on. Most people would play worse with a caddy because they’ve never played with a Caddy. The idea that somehow a caddy is going to significantly improve your score is completely ridiculous.
 

as a scratch golfer, I don’t think most people have any idea how bad shooting five over the rating is. When I shoot five over the course rating I literally feel like I’ve forgotten how to play!   Please show me some of these “scratch” golfers that somehow can’t break 85. Either they are completely lying about their ability or we should throw the entire handicap system out the window.  You’re either a scratch or you’re not. 

Preach it.  This is the way a true scratch golfer thinks.  There are vanity scratches out there, but a true scratch golfer isn't thinking about breaking 85.

[Joe Smoeter]

On 9/4/2020 at 3:04 AM, isaacbm said:

This thread was funny. I can’t believe that people don’t understand how ridiculous the original premise was. But let’s just say for arguments sake that  the day after the masters we held a one day tournament with 100 scratch golfers. Let’s say for some idiotic reason nobody was allowed a caddy and nobody had ever played the course. Fine. Are you guys honestly telling me that you think not one person in 100 would shoot 84 or lower?

i’m currently a plus one. I’ve played over 700 golf courses since I’ve become a scratch golfer. I have never once shot over 85. I’ve played some of the hardest rated golf courses in the world. Course’s sloped over 150 at 7700 yards. I can think of only a handful of times in the last 30 years that I’ve shot over 80. (As in 81 or 82) Anybody who thinks that not one of those hundred hypothetical players could break 85 must be completely out of their mind. 
i’ve never played Augusta, but of all the golf courses in the world I haven’t played that I feel like I know quite well it would be at the top of the list. I could probably draw you accurate green complexes for every single hole and I’ve never been there! 
 

and a caddie? Lol! Come on. Most people would play worse with a caddy because they’ve never played with a Caddy. The idea that somehow a caddy is going to significantly improve your score is completely ridiculous.
 

as a scratch golfer, I don’t think most people have any idea how bad shooting five over the rating is. When I shoot five over the course rating I literally feel like I’ve forgotten how to play!   Please show me some of these “scratch” golfers that somehow can’t break 85. Either they are completely lying about their ability or we should throw the entire handicap system out the window.  You’re either a scratch or you’re not. 

I was a plus handicap for a long time and had a few tournaments where I shot 80 or 81. It happens. I played Augusta twice in the early 90s with our company CEO who was a member.  Both rounds were from the member tees and the course was tricky but not particularly difficult. My rounds were 73 and 75 with a 4 putt for an 8 in the second round on number 2 (don't ask, I don't want to remember it) ? Now to be fair this was not from the tips and not with super fast greens but I'm confident with proper preparation, I could have easily shot under 75 from the tips. 

[North Texas]

7 hours ago, Joe Smoeter said:

I was a plus handicap for a long time and had a few tournaments where I shot 80 or 81. It happens. I played Augusta twice in the early 90s with our company CEO who was a member.  Both rounds were from the member tees and the course was tricky but not particularly difficult. My rounds were 73 and 75 with a 4 putt for an 8 in the second round on number 2 (don't ask, I don't want to remember it) ? Now to be fair this was not from the tips and not with super fast greens but I'm confident with proper preparation, I could have easily shot under 75 from the tips. 

 

Easily?

[mocokid]

I'd like to play it from the members tees (moved up as much as possible)  and after a rain storm that's prevented the greens from being cut for the last week.  Sure I can break 85 if they let me play 3 rounds. 

[Joe Smoeter]

2 hours ago, North Texas said:

 

Easily?

well the par 5s are not very hard so there are a few birdies in there and a few other birdie holes so ..it can be done.

[MUNIGRIT]

The real question is Is the scratch player legit scratch or are they one of these IG shotmaker 6 handicap pros that claim scratch?

Edited September 9, 2020 by MUNIGRIT

[North Texas]

1 hour ago, Joe Smoeter said:

well the par 5s are not very hard so there are a few birdies in there and a few other birdie holes so ..it can be done.

 

I don't doubt it can be done. I just question the "easily" part. 

 

So you shot 3 over par for 2 rounds from the members tees with a triple on #2 in the second round. That's pretty damn good if you ask me. Curious if you remember how you played the other 7 par fives?

Edited September 8, 2020 by North Texas

[forrester_fire]

If I'm not mistaken, tournament conditions include a caddy and they get to at least walk the course.  Those stipulations unfairly hamstring said scratch player.

Edited September 8, 2020 by forrester_fire

[isaacbm]

Now at this Years US open the way they’re talking about setting up the golf course I could see 85 being a problem for scratch... The course rating could conceivably be adjusted at 83 or 84 at Wingfoot! 
 

Not at Augusta though! 

[smashdn]

Shin deep rough and 15 yard fairways will toughen up a course.

[Obee]

Once again, Justin Timberlake, who is not a scratch golfer, shot 88 at Bethpage Black in US Open Conditions when the winning score was 276 (4-under). I've played with him. He's a nice club player. 2 - 4 index (currently a 4.6). Bethpage Black in U.S. Open conditions is tougher than Augusta in Masters condition.

 

YES, a scratch golfer can break 85 at Augusta in Masters conditions.

[Shilgy]

9 hours ago, isaacbm said:

Now at this Years US open the way they’re talking about setting up the golf course I could see 85 being a problem for scratch... The course rating could conceivably be adjusted at 83 or 84 at Wingfoot! 
 

Not at Augusta though! 

I agree. Though course ratings do seem odd at times. TPC Boston is rated at 77.2 154 and Winged Foot 75.7 141. Gee, with that info should I lay down a bet for DJ to get to -30 again? Scheffler another 59?
 

YES I AM KIDDING! 
 

not about the course ratings though.

[Joe Smoeter]

On 9/8/2020 at 8:13 PM, North Texas said:

 

I don't doubt it can be done. I just question the "easily" part. 

 

So you shot 3 over par for 2 rounds from the members tees with a triple on #2 in the second round. That's pretty damn good if you ask me. Curious if you remember how you played the other 7 par fives?

To be honest I hacked number 2 both days. The course only played about 6400 yards i think. Number 8 i birdied both days with a 4 iron in and on in 2. Number 13 I birdied twice...but it is very short. Number 15 I made par both times but I layed up as I hit the driver right ... But one needs to remember at the time I was a long driver and a good short iron player with chipping and putting being very very solid. Finally, don"t forget the par 3s are short from the members tees and the greens are not so fast as during the tournament...but....the greens are really tough..lots of slopes and speed from back to front. The caddie actually told me for the average member the par 3s are relatively easy and the par 5s play the hardest... who knows... 

I do know one thing I-ll probably never get the opportunity to play it again .. which is sad!

[golfer929]

Just for reference, The reigning US Amateur Champ could not break 80 this week at The Masters.

[RobotDoctor]

Just now, golfer929 said:

Just for reference, The reigning US Amateur Champ could not break 80 this week at The Masters.

 

And he is a + handicap golfer, played several practice rounds at ANGC, had a caddie, and had more than an hour practice before his round. 

 

I had hoped this thread would not appear during this year's Masters tournament.  Technically it didn't since the 2021 tournament is over.

[golfer929]

2 minutes ago, RobotDoctor said:

 

And he is a + handicap golfer, played several practice rounds at ANGC, had a caddie, and had more than an hour practice before his round. 

 

I had hoped this thread would not appear during this year's Masters tournament.  Technically it didn't since the 2021 tournament is over.

I specifically waited for it to over. Didn't want to interrupt the actual event with this hypothetical!

[RobotDoctor]

4 minutes ago, golfer929 said:

I specifically waited for it to over. Didn't want to interrupt the actual event with this hypothetical!

 

Now are you convinced that under you and you're friends hypothetical conditions that a scratch cannot break 85?  It's the conditions that made it improbable/impossible.

 

🙂

Edited April 12, 2021 by RobotDoctor

[tw_focus]

Easily, with a local caddy. Augusta is a short course, nothing really special about it other than the tricky greens. With a course caddy for green reads I think most players 5-10 hcp would have a shot at breaking 85.

[Shilgy]

1 hour ago, tw_focus said:

Easily, with a local caddy. Augusta is a short course, nothing really special about it other than the tricky greens. With a course caddy for green reads I think most players 5-10 hcp would have a shot at breaking 85.

Man I hope my finely tuned sarcasm meter is working......

 

 

Because if not that is the delusional post of the year!

Edited April 12, 2021 by Shilgy

[Bye]

3 hours ago, tw_focus said:

Easily, with a local caddy. Augusta is a short course, nothing really special about it other than the tricky greens. With a course caddy for green reads I think most players 5-10 hcp would have a shot at breaking 85.

Remember it’s no caddy no practice round.

 

Most scratch golfers are going to have a part of their game that will be horribly exposed in those conditions. 
 

Its still a no from me.

[mahonie]

The beauty and attraction of Augusta is that it is two courses in one and that is what creates the drama. Peter Dobereiner, the great golf writer, says it much better than me but in essence Augusta is not that difficult to shoot par...but to shoot under par is a completely different matter.

 

The key to hitting birdies is to make sure you leave yourself a makeable putt. Every pin position has an ideal place where you will have a makeable putt. However, the room for error in finding that spot is minuscule and to hit that spot in the first place you need to be in the right part of the fairway.

 

Fairways are generous and the greens are relatively large albeit fast and contoured. Keep the ball in the right place and par is not a difficult target for a scratch golfer. Even old guys like Lyle and Woosnam who don’t play that much are only just missing par.

[golf1010]

A scratch that has a great short game is a definite. In all likelihood out of 20 players. 4 would break 85.