Could a Scratch Golfer break 85 at Augusta?

[RobotDoctor]

2 minutes ago, samwm said:

Yes, I think that a scratch golfer playing Augusta for the first time would have nerves. I also strongly doubt that they would compare to the nerves of the reigning US Am champ who is playing in his first Masters.
 

This isn’t the hill I care to die on, but the gravity of the two scenarios is markedly different. If you don’t agree, all good!

No, I can agree with that.  Certainly a reigning US Amateur playing in his first Masters, with the lineage of his Grandfather competing in a Masters and playing the first two rounds with the reigning Masters Champion would certainly lead to huge nerves.  Definitely more than a scratch playing ANGC for the first time.  There's more on the line playing in The Masters tournament.  

[isaacbm]

No comparison to Augusta Nations but here's a story.   I played opening day today.  I'm a +.4 index currently.   It was about 39 degrees outside.  Par 71 6900/rated 72.5/135.   A little windy.  I had a triple, 2  doubles,  3 bogies, 4  lost balls, 3 three putts and I only hit 6 greens in regulation.  My point being that a lot of terrible things can happen to a scratch in a round of golf.  Sounds like I shot a million right?  I shot 77. I don't understand how this is so hard to understand.

I shot 4.5 over the rating today and I played like a rank hack for me.   Will be in my top 3 worst rounds of the season.   

 

Scratch golfers don't shoot 15-20 over the course rating.  If the rating at Augusta is 78 or 79 at the absolute highest, why MUST I shoot "at least 90"?  I mean of course it could happen.  

I never said it couldn't happen.  I just don't understand why people are saying that it MUST happen.  Why MUST I shoot AT LEAST 8 shots over the rating?  At least some people are saying

there's a 20% chance that a scratch could break 85.  But a 0% chance??  Do people seriously not understand statistical likelyhoods at all??  A 0% chance?  Are we sure?

Edited April 14, 2021 by isaacbm

[BombinJim]

I think a true scratch could do it. However, I think that given the conditions of Sunday at the masters, no caddie, and first time seeing the course with only an hour warmup, it would be more likely a plus (better than scratch) who would be able to break 85. I think the mental toughness to play during tournament conditions with the pressure on is what separates a plus from a scratch. This is assuming the course would be a 78/79 with slope factored in.

[Bye]

I don’t think that I could break 85 under the original conditions, and I don’t think that any of my friends that are also scratch golfers would either.
 

We all have areas of our games that are good, but other parts are not and this is where it would fall down. The conditions are extreme and that negates the good parts and puts extra pressure on the weak parts.

[bladehunter]

4 hours ago, isaacbm said:

No comparison to Augusta Nations but here's a story.   I played opening day today.  I'm a +.4 index currently.   It was about 39 degrees outside.  Par 71 6900/rated 72.5/135.   A little windy.  I had a triple, 2  doubles,  3 bogies, 4  lost balls, 3 three putts and I only hit 6 greens in regulation.  My point being that a lot of terrible things can happen to a scratch in a round of golf.  Sounds like I shot a million right?  I shot 77. I don't understand how this is so hard to understand.

I shot 4.5 over the rating today and I played like a rank hack for me.   Will be in my top 3 worst rounds of the season.   

 

Scratch golfers don't shoot 15-20 over the course rating.  If the rating at Augusta is 78 or 79 at the absolute highest, why MUST I shoot "at least 90"?  I mean of course it could happen.  

I never said it couldn't happen.  I just don't understand why people are saying that it MUST happen.  Why MUST I shoot AT LEAST 8 shots over the rating?  At least some people are saying

there's a 20% chance that a scratch could break 85.  But a 0% chance??  Do people seriously not understand statistical likelyhoods at all??  A 0% chance?  Are we sure?

Agree.  As I posted earlier in this thread. I know a guy personally who broke 80 at Augusta while in college ( most colleges around the south get to play there eventually ) .   He’s +1 ish ( I didn’t look it up ) now.  I play with him all the time. 
 

I know a few older than me scratch or better players who’ve played it due to being invited by equipment reps.  ( shop owners etc ).  I’ll ask them what they’ve shot.  

[mocokid]

If it's wet after a downpour and not windy (calm), answer is YES for a scratch golfer, assuming he gets help reading the greens. 

[Bye]

Scoring average for Sunday this year was 72.63. Average tour player is what, +6? 

 

All had a caddy, several practice rounds and had played the 3 days prior, and most will have played in years prior. 
 

Course rating of around 79 with the above factored in?  Some of the best players in the world, who play and practice most days. Taught by the best coaches in the world with all the training aids and clubs custom fitted to the limit. 

 

You have 1 hour to adjust to the conditions, playing the course blind with no help, probably as a part time golfer. If you think you can do it then all respect to you.

[isaacbm]

21 minutes ago, Bye said:

Scoring average for Sunday this year was 72.63. Average tour player is what, +6? 

 

All had a caddy, several practice rounds and had played the 3 days prior, and most will have played in years prior. 
 

Course rating of around 79 with the above factored in?  Some of the best players in the world, who play and practice most days. Taught by the best coaches in the world with all the training aids and clubs custom fitted to the limit. 

 

You have 1 hour to adjust to the conditions, playing the course blind with no help, probably as a part time golfer. If you think you can do it then all respect to you.

After reading your post I literally feel like you’re making my argument for me. If these guys are +6 and they’re averaging between 72 and 73 and I am six shots worse than them don’t you think it’s possible that I just might be able to shoot 13 shots worse than them?

[gioguy21]

21 minutes ago, Bye said:

Scoring average for Sunday this year was 72.63. Average tour player is what, +6? 

 

All had a caddy, several practice rounds and had played the 3 days prior, and most will have played in years prior. 
 

Course rating of around 79 with the above factored in?  Some of the best players in the world, who play and practice most days. Taught by the best coaches in the world with all the training aids and clubs custom fitted to the limit. 

 

You have 1 hour to adjust to the conditions, playing the course blind with no help, probably as a part time golfer. If you think you can do it then all respect to you.

 i gave stats on the previous page that are answering what you're asking --

 

no one at this point is TRULY blind to augusta or could very easily see videos of hole positions, where to play, etc. not like we've never seen the course or hole locations before. 

it's been asked can it happen and there are a few in here who are saying it would never happen. doesn't add up -- of course it COULD happen, and if it could happen at least one time then the answer to the op's question is obviously yes. 

 

[gioguy21]

Just now, isaacbm said:

After reading your post I literally feel like you’re making my argument for me. If these guys are +6 and they’re averaging between 72 and 73 and I am six shots worse than them don’t you think it’s possible that I just might be able to shoot 13 shots worse than them?

i'm with you man...it's entirely possible. the argument that it would NEVER happen is harder to prove. 

 

[PixlPutterman]

There seem to be a few people who cant separate an absolute zero percent chance from a 5%-10% chance.......

 

I think its absolutely foolish to think if you threw 100 scratch golfers on the course that not one of them would have a good day and break 85....

[Bye]

8 minutes ago, isaacbm said:

After reading your post I literally feel like you’re making my argument for me. If these guys are +6 and they’re averaging between 72 and 73 and I am six shots worse than them don’t you think it’s possible that I just might be able to shoot 13 shots worse than them?

Averaging that with the things you would not have, a prior experience on the course or a caddy.

 

You might be able to do it, I don’t think that I could. 

[Bye]

11 minutes ago, gioguy21 said:

 i gave stats on the previous page that are answering what you're asking --

 

no one at this point is TRULY blind to augusta or could very easily see videos of hole positions, where to play, etc. not like we've never seen the course or hole locations before. 

it's been asked can it happen and there are a few in here who are saying it would never happen. doesn't add up -- of course it COULD happen, and if it could happen at least one time then the answer to the op's question is obviously yes. 

 

Looks easy on TV, you might think you know where to aiming, but if you miss your spot by just a little... how many people still miss that putt on Sunday on 13 from behind the hole. I’ve been watching since 86, and it is still rarely made.

 

 

[gioguy21]

2 minutes ago, Bye said:

Looks easy on TV, you might think you know where to aiming, but if you miss your spot by just a little... how many people still miss that putt on Sunday on 13 from behind the hole. I’ve been watching since 86, and it is still rarely made.

 

 

i have never once said it looks easy on tv...i gave real stats and realistic comparisons -- how many people also MAKE that putt...? 

[MtlJeff]

8 hours ago, isaacbm said:

No comparison to Augusta Nations but here's a story.   I played opening day today.  I'm a +.4 index currently.   It was about 39 degrees outside.  Par 71 6900/rated 72.5/135.   A little windy.  I had a triple, 2  doubles,  3 bogies, 4  lost balls, 3 three putts and I only hit 6 greens in regulation.  My point being that a lot of terrible things can happen to a scratch in a round of golf.  Sounds like I shot a million right?  I shot 77. I don't understand how this is so hard to understand.

I shot 4.5 over the rating today and I played like a rank hack for me.   Will be in my top 3 worst rounds of the season.   

 

Scratch golfers don't shoot 15-20 over the course rating.  If the rating at Augusta is 78 or 79 at the absolute highest, why MUST I shoot "at least 90"?  I mean of course it could happen.  

I never said it couldn't happen.  I just don't understand why people are saying that it MUST happen.  Why MUST I shoot AT LEAST 8 shots over the rating?  At least some people are saying

there's a 20% chance that a scratch could break 85.  But a 0% chance??  Do people seriously not understand statistical likelyhoods at all??  A 0% chance?  Are we sure?

 

I played Torrey Pines a few years back from the ~ 6800yd tees, a few weeks before the PGA tournament there so the rough was really bad... with a full bag of new clubs, hit 1 fairway the whole day (sadly, that is true) and generally didn't play well and shot 81. I was a 1.8 at the time and hadn't played golf in 2 months due to living in Canada...That same day another WRX member shot 73 as a 0, and a member who was a + 0.6 or something shot 69. 

 

Again, it's not Augusta...But a fairly tough course, and we putted everything out etc...

 

The other thing is that you can make birdies. You said it well, there's no lions roaming the course or traps on the greens that will rip off your leg. Holes like #2, #13, #15 etc...it's not like you'll never have a birdie chance. You could even make 1 or 2. 

 

I don't get this thread at all. If you put 10 players on the course a few of them might not break 85, but many would. The slope/rating would back this up and there's numerous anecdotes in this very thread of people who have literally played the course

[gioguy21]

5 minutes ago, MtlJeff said:

 

I played Torrey Pines a few years back from the ~ 6800yd tees, a few weeks before the PGA tournament there so the rough was really bad... with a full bag of new clubs, hit 1 fairway the whole day (sadly, that is true) and generally didn't play well and shot 81. I was a 1.8 at the time and hadn't played golf in 2 months due to living in Canada...That same day another WRX member shot 73 as a 0, and a member who was a + 0.6 or something shot 69. 

 

Again, it's not Augusta...But a fairly tough course, and we putted everything out etc...

 

The other thing is that you can make birdies. You said it well, there's no lions roaming the course or traps on the greens that will rip off your leg. Holes like #2, #13, #15 etc...it's not like you'll never have a birdie chance. You could even make 1 or 2. 

 

I don't get this thread at all. If you put 10 players on the course a few of them might not break 85, but many would. The slope/rating would back this up and there's numerous anecdotes in this very thread of people who have literally played the course

exactly. 

i shot a 73 at bethpage black playing a driver length off the back of the very back box -- the first day they reopened after the pga. it's not SO crazy to think they might break 85 at augusta...so much so that you're ruling it would never happen. 

[tsecor]

According the USGA, a scratch golfer is simply identified as “a player who can play to a Course Handicap of zero on any and all rated golf courses.”

 

so, i guess the answer would be yes, they could break 85

Edited April 14, 2021 by tsecor

[Bye]

5 minutes ago, gioguy21 said:

i have never once said it looks easy on tv...i gave real stats and realistic comparisons -- how many people also MAKE that putt...? 

I didn’t read the post you made on the previous page, apologies for that. But it makes me think the guys that made the cut are probably way better than a +6 average. 
 

Looking at what the average scratch golfer looks like on the link you posted, I wouldn’t fancy their chances if they are hitting it 250 average off the tee round there.  A longer player is going to have another area of their game that is going to be weaker otherwise their handicap would be lower. There will be a part of anyone’s game that will be exposed.

 

My opinion on it, but I respect yours and others who think it’s possible.
 

 

 

[UAdamz]

11 minutes ago, tsecor said:

According the USGA, a scratch golfer is simply identified as “a player who can play to a Course Handicap of zero on any and all rated golf courses.”

 

so, i guess the answer would be yes, they could break 85

Tough to dispute this. The only things that I believe could keep them from breaking 85 or so would be an inability to hold the green with the long approaches, or just a complete blow up hole (which would likely happen to most scratches at least once). AGNC can take a bogey hole to a triple hole pretty quick.

[oikos1]

Seems at least a handful of scratch golfers in the world could break 85 under the stipulations (although I don't know how you mimic Sunday Tournament conditions).  The majority would have their @ss handed to them. 

 

The OP said his buddy claims he wouldn't make a double bogey either.  Now that is funny.  This year the pros averaged 32 double bogeys or worse for each of the four rounds.

[oikos1]

Remember this (Warning:  Do not watch if you have a tee time in the next 24 hours):

 

 

[tsecor]

24 minutes ago, UAdamz said:

Tough to dispute this. The only things that I believe could keep them from breaking 85 or so would be an inability to hold the green with the long approaches, or just a complete blow up hole (which would likely happen to most scratches at least once). AGNC can take a bogey hole to a triple hole pretty quick.

no doubt.....but i guess, by definition you are not a scratch golfer if you cannot shoot even at Augusta......if you choose to try 🙂

 

i guess many "scratch" golfers would roll into Augusta as a scratch golfer but lose that title prior to leaving 🙂

[PixlPutterman]

20 minutes ago, tsecor said:

no doubt.....but i guess, by definition you are not a scratch golfer if you cannot shoot even at Augusta......if you choose to try 🙂

 

i guess many "scratch" golfers would roll into Augusta as a scratch golfer but lose that title prior to leaving 🙂

It wouldnt be shooting even, it would be playing at the courses zero cap, or their rating.

 

So by that definition a scratch should have a mildly decent chance at shooting 79/80 there

[tsecor]

6 minutes ago, PixlPutterman said:

It wouldnt be shooting even, it would be playing at the courses zero cap, or their rating.

 

So by that definition a scratch should have a mildly decent chance at shooting 79/80 there

Augusta doesnt publish any of this info it seems...... if only us average guys could have a shot to break 120 at this magnificent course 🙂

[PixlPutterman]

48 minutes ago, tsecor said:

Augusta doesnt publish any of this info it seems...... if only us average guys could have a shot to break 120 at this magnificent course 🙂

They dont, but there have been a ton of course raters that have been to the masters and that seems to be the rough consensus, rating around 79 with a slope in the mid 140's

[CasualLie]

Catching up on last few pages....

 

As setup by OP, will scratch break 85?  Maybe.  Likely?  No.  I give it about a 10% chance just based on two things: (1) of all the scratch golfers I know, only about 1 in 10 are making a lot of birdies and this is very important for this scenario, and (2) I know a couple of those 1 in 10 golfers who did play Augusta recently and shot low 70s three days in a row. To summarize their long story I had to suffer through listening (although not much suffering with a good Bourbon), many birdies made, and a few doubles. 

 

Now they didn't play exactly as OP has described; course was firm and fast enough, but no Sunday pins.  (by the way, doesn't Augusta setup Sunday back 9 for scoring???  I think so, but don't tell that to the "others" on the leaderboard who forgot the fireworks).  So I am saying, these two excellent golfers are probably not going to drop 10 shots with a tougher setup.

 

Still...the OP scenario is never going to happen so we can never know 100%, let's just say chances are very low and leave it at that.

 

The only thing I can guarantee the scratch golfer will not do is hit 8 iron on 16!  Dummy Xander.

 

 

[CasualLie]

Oh...the Els 6-putt video is irrelevant.  His putting that year was absolutely atrocious.

[BNGL]

On 4/12/2021 at 6:44 PM, RobotDoctor said:

 
I never gave an estimate.  I would never do that because I don't have the expertise.  In my line of work I don't pass an estimate as fact.  I work with empirical data, not guesses based on past projects.  
 

I've been consistent in that under the exact criteria I believe a scratch cannot break 85.  I might change that if the golfer is a scratch from Oakmont CC.  That might be the lone exception because the green complexes are more severe at Oakmont than ANGC. 

Having been to both, played both, and worked at one. Augusta has far more, I don't want to say severe because they're playable (severe to me invokes unplayable pointless etc), but Augusta National has more slope on and around the greens than Oakmont. Oakmont is faster though, much much faster on average than ANGC, which makes it seem more severe but its not.

Edited April 14, 2021 by BNGL

[RobotDoctor]

20 minutes ago, BNGL said:

Having been to both, played both, and worked at one. Augusta has far more, I don't want to say severe because they're playable (severe to me invokes unplayable pointless etc), but Augusta National has more slope on and around the greens than Oakmont. Oakmont is faster though, much much faster on average than ANGC, which makes it seem more severe but its not.

 

I wonder how many amateur golfers have played greens 13 or a bit faster on the stimpmeter and on sloping greens?  I certainly have not.  The fastest greens I have played are about 11 to maybe 11.5.  I can only imagine standing over a 4-5 foot put with a left to right break on greens that are 13 needing to make par and hoping if I miss I don't roll farther away than I am now.

That is, yet, another challenge facing someone playing Sunday Masters tournament condition golf.

[Shilgy]

On 4/13/2021 at 8:07 AM, isaacbm said:

https://www.golfchannel.com/skysports/tours/other/2021/augusta-national-womens-amateur
 

For reference, 184 rounds were played and only two rounds were over 85. Both by the same player.

 

So again, I’m not saying the course setup was comparable. But it was the same golf course. Most of these women would be between a plus 2 and a 2  handicap from the men’s tees.  They didn’t struggle so much with the green complexes that they couldn’t break 85.  
 

Here’s the scores from the previous playing:

 

https://www.golfchannel.com/tours/women-s-amateur/2019/augusta-national-womens-amateur

 

In 2019 the greens were a little softer. Of the 176 rounds played, 170 of them were  80 or lower!! 
 

So again, yes different set up but same golf course.  
The ladies demonstrated clearly that Augusta national is not a hard golf course under normal conditions. 

So then the question becomes one of set up.  How much harder are the conditions during the Masters  proper? 
 

In my opinion, the ladies clearly demonstrated that the green complexes themselves are manageable for scratch golfers .

 

Thoughts?

 

The ladies only play Augusta National the final round of that event.

 

On 4/13/2021 at 11:31 AM, RobotDoctor said:

Sure, @isaacbmmay have a point. What was the yardage the ladies played to?  I suppose move them a little further back, but not nearly as far back as the championship tees.  To test that the ladies would have to play greens like they were on Sunday.  And only scratch can play that scenario.  Any + handicap is disqualified.  
 

That said this hypothetical will never happen so any additional posts adds to mere conjecture. 

Greens can get faster and firmer but if the ladies at the amateur could handle it....which means a men’s 4 could easily handle it....then a scratch could easily handle Sunday’s greens.

 

On 4/13/2021 at 11:44 AM, RobotDoctor said:

Ding, Ding, Ding! Finally someone else who understands what being a scratch really is.  👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼

It means their best 8 of 20 will average the course rating.

 

 

Oh! And that is why @isaacbmsaid about 25% of scratches would break 85.

 

 But your “I’ve been there” conjecture trumps everyone else’s.