Could a Scratch Golfer break 85 at Augusta?

[Hattie Pants]

I think if the 100 went off trying to shoot their best round, 20ish % might make it. If they all go out and just try to break 85 I think around half get it done.   
 

Making just 1-2 birdies would virtually seal it. You could bogey all the par 3’s hitting in the middle of the green and 3 putting AND bogey 1, 7, 10, 11, 17, 18 for 82.......

 

The course condition would help, great lies, consistent greens, put any good player on there and I don’t know where this short game “carnage” comes from. Maybe a short sided shot that’s impossible to stop within 20 get of the hole but.. you take your medicine and get down in 3 for bogey. It’s not as if scratch players are going to starting blading chips into ponds because it’s a tight lie and making 8’s.. 

[farmer]

Could a 4 hdcp shoot 85 if given everything to exact center of every green?  That's the real question.

[pinhigh27]

1 hour ago, Hattie Pants said:

I think if the 100 went off trying to shoot their best round, 20ish % might make it. If they all go out and just try to break 85 I think around half get it done.   
 

Making just 1-2 birdies would virtually seal it. You could bogey all the par 3’s hitting in the middle of the green and 3 putting AND bogey 1, 7, 10, 11, 17, 18 for 82.......

 

The course condition would help, great lies, consistent greens, put any good player on there and I don’t know where this short game “carnage” comes from. Maybe a short sided shot that’s impossible to stop within 20 get of the hole but.. you take your medicine and get down in 3 for bogey. It’s not as if scratch players are going to starting blading chips into ponds because it’s a tight lie and making 8’s.. 

A scratch golfer is not hitting the middle of every par 3 green, especially not including a 240 yd par 3 hole. They don't do that at a standard muni, or they wouldn't be scratch. Pros have a hard time judging the wind and hitting the green on 12, but you think a scratch golfer is going to auto hit the middle of the green? Pretty much every tour pro would take middle of the green there. 

 

It's not about blading chips. Did you watch the coverage? You have a few yards to land the ball on 3. That was my entire point, you really can't take your medicine at augusta. The slopes prevent that. 

[Obee]

16 hours ago, Bye said:

Out of the group of players you expect to break 85, is this a sub group/type of player I.e. the players with great short games etc? Or is it a cross section?

 

THAT is a great question. The guys who do best will have very few big "holes" in their game. Very difficult championship layouts absolutely expose people's big shortcomings.

[Hattie Pants]

1 hour ago, pinhigh27 said:

A scratch golfer is not hitting the middle of every par 3 green, especially not including a 240 yd par 3 hole. They don't do that at a standard muni, or they wouldn't be scratch. Pros have a hard time judging the wind and hitting the green on 12, but you think a scratch golfer is going to auto hit the middle of the green? Pretty much every tour pro would take middle of the green there. 

 

It's not about blading chips. Did you watch the coverage? You have a few yards to land the ball on 3. That was my entire point, you really can't take your medicine at augusta. The slopes prevent that. 

No I haven’t watched the masters before, may need to tune in next year for some local knowledge 😋

 

You can absolutely take your medicine. There are an incredible amount of holes to bogey or worse and still shoot 85. I included a list of every par 3 and every par 4 I think would get bogeyed and still have 3 shots to play with. So double 3 of the par 3’s instead of bogey and we’re there. Legitimate birdie chances on every par 5, maybe 3, 16. That’s why I said playing for 85 I think it could be done quite a bit. Don’t like turning a draw? Hit 4 iron 6 iron sand wedge to 10 and 2 putt. Any reasonable scratch would turn a couple of those holes into pars by accident, a couple into doubles maybe but play 6-8 good holes and 85 is done 

[oikos1]

8 hours ago, Bye said:

My best friend is also off scratch, has been for some time. He has no short game, I’m not sure I would be able to watch him play 3,7,9 or 15. I mentioned the thread and he has no problem me saying this. 
 

He also said that a friend of his from university has played Augusta twice on the Monday following the Masters. A scratch golfer no less. I think some of the media get to play the following day.

 

I don’t know if it was on his first attempt, but he had been walking the course, and played from the MEMBERS TEES (around 1100 yards shorter). He shot 79. 
 

I might have posted this before, can’t remember. 

 

 

Holy sh!t!  A scratch with no short game?!?  Whoa, WRX unicorn...

[Bye]

7 hours ago, Obee said:

 

THAT is a great question. The guys who do best will have very few big "holes" in their game. Very difficult championship layouts absolutely expose people's big shortcomings.

Agreed, but most likely a good all rounder is more likely to be a short hitter. 
 

There would have to be a reason as to why they are not a lower handicap.

 

But if I was going to place a bet on someone doing it, this would be the type of player would choose to put £1 on. 

[Bye]

3 hours ago, oikos1 said:

Holy sh!t!  A scratch with no short game?!?  Whoa, WRX unicorn...

I know, scratch means your good at everything right... 🤔

[Righty to Lefty]

My friend just played Augusta a few weeks ago and he shot 84. Augusta is not a penal course from the tee box he said but of course the greens complexes are Augusta's main defense.  He isn't anywhere close to a scratch and played it from the members tees.  He stated that he has played many courses that are more difficult but of course Augusta is a bucket list course and the conditions are second to none which he felt helped him score better.   

[Obee]

10 hours ago, oikos1 said:

Holy sh!t!  A scratch with no short game?!?  Whoa, WRX unicorn...

 

They do exist, though I would love to see this guy's actual index card. I have a buddy who used to hover between 1 and 3 but who was a +1 at times in his younger years. He had ZERO short game. Full-on chipping/pitching yips. But he drove the ball like a pro (285 to 305+ and 10 fairways a round) and when his irons were on, he would hit 12 to 14 GIR.

 

Later in his life, he just started putting ... everything. And it helped him a ton.

[isaacbm]

28 minutes ago, Obee said:

 

They do exist, though I would love to see this guy's actual index card. I have a buddy who used to hover between 1 and 3 but who was a +1 at times in his younger years. He had ZERO short game. Full-on chipping/pitching yips. But he drove the ball like a pro (285 to 305+ and 10 fairways a round) and when his irons were on, he would hit 12 to 14 GIR.

 

Later in his life, he just started putting ... everything. And it helped him a ton.

I played with an eight handicap the other day who putted everything from within 20 yards off the green. He wasn’t especially good with it but I’ll say this he never missed a green with his putter. So he didn’t chilli dip any or blade any. 
It was early in the season and the rough is completely dry and brown still so he could get away with it but I don’t think he can do that later in the year

[MtlJeff]

32 minutes ago, Obee said:

 

They do exist, though I would love to see this guy's actual index card. I have a buddy who used to hover between 1 and 3 but who was a +1 at times in his younger years. He had ZERO short game. Full-on chipping/pitching yips. But he drove the ball like a pro (285 to 305+ and 10 fairways a round) and when his irons were on, he would hit 12 to 14 GIR.

 

Later in his life, he just started putting ... everything. And it helped him a ton.

 

I have seen this too ...Guy at my old club who was about 55yrs old. He was an absolute stud from tee to green. Didn't hit it a ton but probably 250 off the tee and used a lot of hybrids.

 

He couldn't chip at all. Not at all....He would either do full swing flop shots or putt from anywhere inside like 20-25yds off the green. 

 

He used to make our interclub team every year when we were one of the top 8-10 clubs in Quebec. Played off a competitive 1-2 index. 

 

I mean these guys are easily the exception and there's very few guys out there like this, but just funny that i have also seen it

[Obee]

20 minutes ago, MtlJeff said:

 

I have seen this too ...Guy at my old club who was about 55yrs old. He was an absolute stud from tee to green. Didn't hit it a ton but probably 250 off the tee and used a lot of hybrids.

 

He couldn't chip at all. Not at all....He would either do full swing flop shots or putt from anywhere inside like 20-25yds off the green. 

 

He used to make our interclub team every year when we were one of the top 8-10 clubs in Quebec. Played off a competitive 1-2 index. 

 

I mean these guys are easily the exception and there's very few guys out there like this, but just funny that i have also seen it

 

YES!! Would flop or putt EVERYTHING. Or, if he did, every once in a while, TRY to hit a pitch, it was ... sad to watch.

 

 

Edited April 21, 2021 by Obee
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[oikos1]

1 hour ago, Obee said:

 

They do exist, though I would love to see this guy's actual index card. I have a buddy who used to hover between 1 and 3 but who was a +1 at times in his younger years. He had ZERO short game. Full-on chipping/pitching yips. But he drove the ball like a pro (285 to 305+ and 10 fairways a round) and when his irons were on, he would hit 12 to 14 GIR.

 

Later in his life, he just started putting ... everything. And it helped him a ton.

Oh, I'm not surprised by that.  I would presume this would not be the scratch golfer you are counting on to break 85 at Augusta.  And if there are more than a few, kinda brings it back full circle.

[Obee]

1 minute ago, oikos1 said:

Oh, I'm not surprised by that.  I would presume this would not be the scratch golfer you are counting on to break 85 at Augusta.  And if there are more than a few, kinda brings it back full circle.

 

Correct. He would have a tougher time, for sure. However, what people who don't play a lot of competitive golf (and who haven't played with a lot of pros to compare the ams to) don't understand is that in order for a guy like that to even be close to scratch with a short game that bad, he has to be elite/borderline elite in other areas -- which this guy was (he's had knee replacement surgery, so he can barely play now).

 

When you drive it, literally, like Tour pro (which this guy could do), it makes the days when you're really driving it well pretty easy to golf. When he was in his 40's, he was driving ball 290 - 310 and hitting 10 fairways. When his ball striking was on, he would hit 15 greens and shoot 3-under on tough(ish) set-ups, and even in tournaments sometimes. That's hard to do when you have an absolutely atrocious short game.

 

So even a guy like that could absolutely do it, but he would have to have a better than average day with driver and his approaches. Trust me when I tell you that he could have hit 13 or 14 greens at Augusta on his good (not even perfect) days. Depending on where his misses were, he's a guy who could shoot 77 or 78 his first time out if he's misses were puttable/floppable.

 

He also could shoot 95 if his ball-striking was off, and his average score out there would definitely be higher than a player with a well-rounded game, for sure.

 

Responding about your caddie claim later....

[Pinky5]

The big qualifier here is what state are the greens in? If they are like they were at this years masters, it would be hard to do. I am sure some guys could do it barely, but it would be tough. Soft greens I bet a lot more would do it. True scratch golfers are pretty good. A round in the 80s for them is really bad.

[bladehunter]

20 hours ago, pinhigh27 said:

wouldn't change short game but would absolutely increase average score. no one would ever suggest you're going to average anywhere near the same score from 1100 yards back. Going to be 5+ shots harder 

Depends on the player.  If you’re long enough to play the tournament tees , moving up will just mean more layups.  Especially on a course like Augusta.  Right ? Layups don’t gain anything.  Just easy tee shots.  The second and subsequent shots are equally as hard.  

[pinhigh27]

1 minute ago, bladehunter said:

Depends on the player.  If you’re long enough to play the tournament tees , moving up will just mean more layups.  Especially on a course like Augusta.  Right ? Layups don’t gain anything.  Just easy tee shots.  The second and subsequent shots are equally as hard.  

You really think 1100 yards wouldn't add strokes? It will add strokes for every single player. That's 60 yards a hole. 

 

When was the last time you saw a set of tees at a course that were 1100 yards longer that wasn't significantly higher in rating? 

 

It would add 5+ shots. 1100 yards is a gigantic difference. like the difference between the senior tees and the tips at most courses. 

[Obee]

3 minutes ago, bladehunter said:

Depends on the player.  If you’re long enough to play the tournament tees , moving up will just mean more layups.  Especially on a course like Augusta.  Right ? Layups don’t gain anything.  Just easy tee shots.  The second and subsequent shots are equally as hard.  

 

5 shots from ~1000 yards additional is about right according to all the slope/rating charts. But that's ONLY for a scratch(ish) golfer or better. For a 12, say, it's more like 8-10 shots more difficult, because the slope moves way up, also. Not really germane to this conversation, but worth noting, I think. 🙂

[bladehunter]

Just now, pinhigh27 said:

You really think 1100 yards wouldn't add strokes? It will add strokes for every single player. That's 60 yards a hole. 

 

When was the last time you saw a set of tees at a course that were 1100 yards longer that wasn't significantly higher in rating? 

 

It would add 5+ shots. 1100 yards is a gigantic difference. like the difference between the senior tees and the tips at most courses. 

I think moving back adds shots.  I’m saying moving up doesnt gaurantee getting them back.  I can and do play the up tees at my home course  with my 12 year old.  And my low score from up there is 69.  My low score from the tips is 65.  With a 75 flat scoring average right now.  I’m just saying that on a lot of courses like that being up front doesn’t just hand you shots.  That’s all. 

[pinhigh27]

3 minutes ago, bladehunter said:

I think moving back adds shots.  I’m saying moving up doesnt gaurantee getting them back.  I can and do play the up tees at my home course  with my 12 year old.  And my low score from up there is 69.  My low score from the tips is 65.  With a 75 flat scoring average right now.  I’m just saying that on a lot of courses like that being up front doesn’t just hand you shots.  That’s all. 

You can shoot 90 from the up tees that doesn't mean it's not easier. 

 

Comparing your lows from the tees you play often to the tees you rarely play doesn't really mean anything. 

 

A 1 handicap shooting a 65 from the tips is also extremely statistically rare so that is going to skew the relationship. 

 

[Bye]

My friend with no short game is scary good with a driver, the course he plays at can be brutal at times, especially in the summer when the rough gets Above knee high. He will hit 12-13 fairways no problem. 250 carry soft fade, it’s automatic. He is a smart guy and has learnt how to get it round with what he has.

 

Im 25 longer than him (but only hit 5-6 fairways a round) a better iron player and have a shot game. He can putt, I can’t. It all works out for us to be around the same standard.

 

Pick your poison, driving, iron play, short game or putting. Can you weak part cope in those circumstances. Especially once something goes wrong...

[bladehunter]

34 minutes ago, pinhigh27 said:

You can shoot 90 from the up tees that doesn't mean it's not easier. 

 

Comparing your lows from the tees you play often to the tees you rarely play doesn't really mean anything. 

 

A 1 handicap shooting a 65 from the tips is also extremely statistically rare so that is going to skew the relationship. 

 

Right. It’s is.   But this 1 will be lower by the end of summer.  I’m not a lifelong player by a long shot.   .    I’m just learning.  But I digress.  
 

 

maybe so.  On the tee differential.  I just see that course as a place where you’d hit more irons off the tee if you moved up.  Which would negate any distance changes. Maybe that’s not the case.  Haven’t been invited to play it yet.  Lol. 

[Obee]

20 hours ago, Hattie Pants said:

I think if the 100 went off trying to shoot their best round, 20ish % might make it. If they all go out and just try to break 85 I think around half get it done.   
 

Making just 1-2 birdies would virtually seal it. You could bogey all the par 3’s hitting in the middle of the green and 3 putting AND bogey 1, 7, 10, 11, 17, 18 for 82.......

 

The course condition would help, great lies, consistent greens, put any good player on there and I don’t know where this short game “carnage” comes from. Maybe a short sided shot that’s impossible to stop within 20 get of the hole but.. you take your medicine and get down in 3 for bogey. It’s not as if scratch players are going to starting blading chips into ponds because it’s a tight lie and making 8’s.. 

Good lord. Another one who gets it. LOL

 

The "trying to break 85" thing is big. I'm not going to try any risky shots if I'm just trying to break 85. Several of the par 4's become par 5's for me from the get go, for instance.

Edited April 21, 2021 by Obee

[Obee]

My buddy, currently a +1.4 just played the member's tees two weeks before the Masters. Played the par 3's from the back, so about 6500 yards. Shot 75. But, of course, he's going to shoot 10+ strokes higher if you add ~900 to 1000 yards. Of course. Even though the difference in rating would only be 5 strokes, I'm sure he would have shot 10 to 15 shots higher from the back tees. <<<<<<Sarcasm.

 

He's a competitive am who is just 1.0 to 1.5 strokes better than the exact players we are talking about in this thread. It was his first time ever seeing the course, and he had 30 putts. Said the caddie maybe truly helped him on one read. This guy is a fantastic putter, but so are plenty of scratch golfers. And if they are elite putters, then that means they struggle elsewhere. But make no mistake, he's not the only amateur who can putt those greens.

 

And for a legit scratch golfer who is a mediocre putter, then that means he's probably a very good driver of the ball. Or has a very good short game. Or he's pretty darn good at everything else.

 

Like I said, this whole thing has just gotten silly. It's not that hard to figure. The course plays to a rating of about 80 for The Masters, plus or minus a stroke or two depending on just how tough it is from year to year. This year seemed on the tougher end, for sure. If we can't agree on a rating, plus or minus a stroke or two, then all of this is really silly and people are just arguing to argue.

 

And before you trot out Tour pros' bad scores from the Masters as you have in the past: Yes, pros shoot at/around/slightly above the course rating on their mediocre/bad rounds. Happens all the time. Look at the bottom third of the leaderboard on any event and you'll see seasoned pros shooting 74, 75, 76, 77, which is the average adjusted rating of the average courses they play on Tour. Had a Tour pro with $20 million in winnings show up at my home course several years ago. Had bets with everyone as he always does. Course is 6,500 yards. He shot 70. Course is par 72, rated 71.3.

 

But really, this is all anyone needs to know, so I'll go back to it: Justin Timberlake shot 88 at a U.S. Open set-up. Ben Roethlisberger shot 81(!!!). Come on, people!

 

Regarding caddies, with all due respect* @oikos1, if you think a caddie is going to help someone like me -- or anyone who has played a ton of golf at a variety of golf courses (you know, like most, real scratch golfers) -- six strokes, you are out of your flippin' mind. Sorry, buddy.

 

An unbelievably good caddie might save me a full stroke a round.

 

Genuine question: Have you ever even had a caddie at an elite, unknown club read greens for you? I ask, because I have probably played more "caddie golf" than most on this forum, maybe 200 rounds over the years, virtually all of them in tournaments. Have played some crazy, crazy greens in those caddie rounds (Augusta isn't the only club with crazy greens). It is rare that my reads and a caddie's reads are more than a ball or two apart. However, almost without exception, I give up on my caddie's reads very early in the round, as the vast majority just don't read greens as well as I do, and they don't know my speed, how my eye sees lines, etc. Bottom line: I have had more success just reading them myself.

 

Caddies are nice to have. They can help from time to time but for me, the biggest help, by far, is just carrying my damn bag so my fat *ss doesn't have to! 🙂

 

Now give me a caddie who has been with me for years and who knows me and my putting speed and my putting eye? That's different. Maybe, over time, a guy/gal like that helps me a full stroke a round. Maybe.

 

Finally, regarding you saying in one of your earlier posts that I "changed the parameters," I did not. I just gave various scenarios. I said I would bet a large sum at even money that I could shoot 84 or below on my first try. Admittedly, I would probably have to use my Alphard ClubBooster v2 to get my clubs around the course or I would die of heart attack on those hills, but I'm confident I could. And like I've said many times, I also could shoot 85 or above.

 

And remember, the thread was always "could," not "will." Give 100 "me's" 100 "first tries" at it, and I'm thinking 60 - 70 times I shoot 84 or less on my first try. Honestly, I want to say 85 to 90, but I'll give the course the benefit of the doubt. 😉

 

 

[pinhigh27]

1 minute ago, Obee said:

My buddy, currently a +1.4 just played the member's tees two weeks before the Masters. Played the par 3's from the back, so about 6500 yards. Shot 75. But, of course, he's going to shoot 10+ strokes higher if you add ~900 to 1000 yards. Of course. Even though the difference in rating would only be 5 strokes, I'm sure he would have shot 10 to 15 shots higher from the back tees. <<<<<<Sarcasm.

 

He's a competitive am who is just 1.0 to 1.5 strokes better than the exact players we are talking about in this thread. It was his first time ever seeing the course, and he had 30 putts. Said the caddie maybe truly helped him on one read. This guy is a fantastic putter, but so are plenty of scratch golfers. And if they are elite putters, then that means they struggle elsewhere. But make no mistake, he's not the only amateur who can putt those greens.

 

And for a legit scratch golfer who is a mediocre putter, then that means he's probably a very good driver of the ball. Or has a very good short game. Or he's pretty darn good at everything else.

 

Like I said, this whole thing has just gotten silly. It's not that hard to figure. The course plays to a rating of about 80 for The Masters, plus or minus a stroke or two depending on just how tough it is from year to year. This year seemed on the tougher end, for sure. If we can't agree on a rating, plus or minus a stroke or two, then all of this is really silly and people are just arguing to argue.

 

And before you trot out Tour pros' bad scores from the Masters as you have in the past: Yes, pros shoot at/around/slightly above the course rating on their mediocre/bad rounds. Happens all the time. Look at the bottom third of the leaderboard on any event and you'll see seasoned pros shooting 74, 75, 76, 77, which is the average adjusted rating of the average courses they play on Tour. Had a Tour pro with $20 million in winnings show up at my home course several years ago. Had bets with everyone as he always does. Course is 6,500 yards. He shot 70. Course is par 72, rated 71.3.

 

But really, this is all anyone needs to know, so I'll go back to it: Justin Timberlake shot 88 at a U.S. Open set-up. Ben Roethlisberger shot 81(!!!). Come on, people!

 

Regarding caddies, with all due respect* @oikos1, if you think a caddie is going to help someone like me -- or anyone who has played a ton of golf at a variety of golf courses (you know, like most, real scratch golfers) -- six strokes, you are out of your flippin' mind. Sorry, buddy.

 

An unbelievably good caddie might save me a full stroke a round.

 

Genuine question: Have you ever even had a caddie at an elite, unknown club read greens for you? I ask, because I have probably played more "caddie golf" than most on this forum, maybe 200 rounds over the years, virtually all of them in tournaments. Have played some crazy, crazy greens in those caddie rounds (Augusta isn't the only club with crazy greens). It is rare that my reads and a caddie's reads are more than a ball or two apart. However, almost without exception, I give up on my caddie's reads very early in the round, as the vast majority just don't read greens as well as I do, and they don't know my speed, how my eye sees lines, etc. Bottom line: I have had more success just reading them myself.

 

Caddies are nice to have. They can help from time to time but for me, the biggest help, by far, is just carrying my damn bag so my fat *ss doesn't have to! 🙂

 

Now give me a caddie who has been with me for years and who knows me and my putting speed and my putting eye? That's different. Maybe, over time, a guy/gal like that helps me a full stroke a round. Maybe.

 

Finally, regarding you saying in one of your earlier posts that I "changed the parameters," I did not. I just gave various scenarios. I said I would bet a large sum at even money that I could shoot 84 or below on my first try. Admittedly, I would probably have to use my Alphard ClubBooster v2 to get my clubs around the course or I would die of heart attack on those hills, but I'm confident I could. And like I've said many times, I also could shoot 85 or above.

 

And remember, the thread was always "could," not "will." Give 100 "me's" 100 "first tries" at it, and I'm thinking 60 - 70 times I shoot 84 or less on my first try. Honestly, I want to say 85 to 90, but I'll give the course the benefit of the doubt. 😉

 

 

ok so he's 1.5 shots better than scratch and played tees that are 5+ shots easier. Thats 81.5 adjusted for a scratch from the tips. I'm not sure that is that much of an indictment for a bunch of scratch golfers breaking 85 and you even said his strength in his game is what we're saying would be so difficult.  I don't think the average scratch golfer would have 30 putts at augusta. I think the # would be closer to 40 than 30. 

 

Also if you're saying its 5 shots difference and the rating is 80 from the tips, then he shot a roughly -3 differential which means he played at the top end of his skill. 

 

 

[b.helts]

3 minutes ago, pinhigh27 said:

ok so he's 1.5 shots better than scratch and played tees that are 5+ shots easier. Thats 81.5 adjusted for a scratch from the tips. I'm not sure that is that much of an indictment for a bunch of scratch golfers breaking 85 and you even said his strength in his game is what we're saying would be so difficult.  I don't think the average scratch golfer would have 30 putts at augusta. I think the # would be closer to 40 than 30. 

 

Also if you're saying its 5 shots difference and the rating is 80 from the tips, then he shot a roughly -3 differential which means he played at the top end of his skill. 

 

 

 

What's the point you're trying to make?

At this juncture, you're just attempting to refute the minutiae of each post that comes up.

[Obee]

1 minute ago, pinhigh27 said:

ok so he's 1.5 shots better than scratch and played tees that are 5+ shots easier. Thats 81.5 adjusted for a scratch from the tips. I'm not sure that is that much of an indictment for a bunch of scratch golfers breaking 85 and you even said his strength in his game is what we're saying would be so difficult.  I don't think the average scratch golfer would have 30 putts at augusta. I think the # would be closer to 40 than 30. 

 

Also if you're saying its 5 shots difference and the rating is 80 from the tips, then he shot a roughly -3 differential which means he played at the top end of his skill. 

 

 

 

The 80 rating is being generous. I honestly think it's probably 78ish, but trying to throw a bone to the doubters. Bottom line, even if it's 80.0, A scratch golfer is going to average 84-85 there, and will shoot 80, about 20% of the time. I like even money for any real scratch golfer (as I have defined many times) to shoot 84 or less there on first attempt.

[oikos1]

4 minutes ago, Obee said:

My buddy, currently a +1.4 just played the member's tees two weeks before the Masters. Played the par 3's from the back, so about 6500 yards. Shot 75. But, of course, he's going to shoot 10+ strokes higher if you add ~900 to 1000 yards. Of course. Even though the difference in rating would only be 5 strokes, I'm sure he would have shot 10 to 15 shots higher from the back tees. <<<<<<Sarcasm.

 

He's a competitive am who is just 1.0 to 1.5 strokes better than the exact players we are talking about in this thread. It was his first time ever seeing the course, and he had 30 putts. Said the caddie maybe truly helped him on one read. This guy is a fantastic putter, but so are plenty of scratch golfers. And if they are elite putters, then that means they struggle elsewhere. But make no mistake, he's not the only amateur who can putt those greens.

 

And for a legit scratch golfer who is a mediocre putter, then that means he's probably a very good driver of the ball. Or has a very good short game. Or he's pretty darn good at everything else.

 

Like I said, this whole thing has just gotten silly. It's not that hard to figure. The course plays to a rating of about 80 for The Masters, plus or minus a stroke or two depending on just how tough it is from year to year. This year seemed on the tougher end, for sure. If we can't agree on a rating, plus or minus a stroke or two, then all of this is really silly and people are just arguing to argue.

 

And before you trot out Tour pros' bad scores from the Masters as you have in the past: Yes, pros shoot at/around/slightly above the course rating on their mediocre/bad rounds. Happens all the time. Look at the bottom third of the leaderboard on any event and you'll see seasoned pros shooting 74, 75, 76, 77, which is the average adjusted rating of the average courses they play on Tour. Had a Tour pro with $20 million in winnings show up at my home course several years ago. Had bets with everyone as he always does. Course is 6,500 yards. He shot 70. Course is par 72, rated 71.3.

 

But really, this is all anyone needs to know, so I'll go back to it: Justin Timberlake shot 88 at a U.S. Open set-up. Ben Roethlisberger shot 81(!!!). Come on, people!

 

Regarding caddies, with all due respect* @oikos1, if you think a caddie is going to help someone like me -- or anyone who has played a ton of golf at a variety of golf courses (you know, like most, real scratch golfers) -- six strokes, you are out of your flippin' mind. Sorry, buddy.

 

An unbelievably good caddie might save me a full stroke a round.

 

Genuine question: Have you ever even had a caddie at an elite, unknown club read greens for you? I ask, because I have probably played more "caddie golf" than most on this forum, maybe 200 rounds over the years, virtually all of them in tournaments. Have played some crazy, crazy greens in those caddie rounds (Augusta isn't the only club with crazy greens). It is rare that my reads and a caddie's reads are more than a ball or two apart. However, almost without exception, I give up on my caddie's reads very early in the round, as the vast majority just don't read greens as well as I do, and they don't know my speed, how my eye sees lines, etc. Bottom line: I have had more success just reading them myself.

 

Caddies are nice to have. They can help from time to time but for me, the biggest help, by far, is just carrying my damn bag so my fat *ss doesn't have to! 🙂

 

Now give me a caddie who has been with me for years and who knows me and my putting speed and my putting eye? That's different. Maybe, over time, a guy/gal like that helps me a full stroke a round. Maybe.

 

Finally, regarding you saying in one of your earlier posts that I "changed the parameters," I did not. I just gave various scenarios. I said I would bet a large sum at even money that I could shoot 84 or below on my first try. Admittedly, I would probably have to use my Alphard ClubBooster v2 to get my clubs around the course or I would die of heart attack on those hills, but I'm confident I could. And like I've said many times, I also could shoot 85 or above.

 

And remember, the thread was always "could," not "will." Give 100 "me's" 100 "first tries" at it, and I'm thinking 60 - 70 times I shoot 84 or less on my first try. Honestly, I want to say 85 to 90, but I'll give the course the benefit of the doubt. 😉

 

 

Ok.  Let me make sure I understand you.  Scratch golfers don't need no stinking caddy their first time at Augusta and 85-90% of scratch golfers would break 85 with "no caddie, no cart, no walking the course beforehand, and 1 hour warmup before the round. Sunday tournament conditions, from the back tees."

 

Cool.

[Obee]

Just now, oikos1 said:

Ok.  Let me make sure I understand you.  Scratch golfers don't need no stinking caddy their first time at Augusta and 85-90% of scratch golfers would break 85 with "no caddie, no cart, no walking the course beforehand, and 1 hour warmup before the round. Sunday tournament conditions, from the back tees."

 

Cool.

 

LOL. No, that's me. Knowing my ability. How consistent I am when healthy.

 

Real number I like the even money bet. Dead even money. 100 guys, all capable of walking the course. All scratch golfers as I've defined many times. About half shoot 78 - 84. The other half 85 to 95.