Could a Scratch Golfer break 85 at Augusta?

[Obee]

And if it's 50% of 30% who do it on the first try, that doesn't really matter. It sure as hell ain't less than 10%.

 

It's absolutely a "could," no matter how you define that term.

[oikos1]

2 minutes ago, Obee said:

 

LOL. No, that's me. Knowing my ability. How consistent I am when healthy.

 

Real number I like the even money bet. Dead even money. 100 guys, all capable of walking the course. All scratch golfers as I've defined many times. About half shoot 78 - 84. The other half 85 to 95.

Fair enough and I'm certainly not questioning your game.  I think with a random pool of scratch golfers there might be more who struggle than don't, so I would take that bet.  Appreciate your insight.

[pinhigh27]

14 minutes ago, b.helts said:

 

What's the point you're trying to make?

At this juncture, you're just attempting to refute the minutiae of each post that comes up.

refuting minutiae? I'm saying someone effectively shooting 81.5 in this scenario isn't exactly like a raving " everyone will break 85 endorsement. What is minutiae about this? They were 3 shots away 

[Bye]

Sorry stirring the pot again. 😉
 

How much faster would the greens be for the tournament from how the members play it, 2 feet? 
 

Scott, during his pre-tournament press conference, said during a typical week, Augusta will slowly put its foot on the grass gas. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday they’re one speed. Tournament time they become another. “Then they cut your legs out from under you on Thursday and you’re scared every chip shot and all of a sudden downhill putts are running to the edge of the green and stuff like that,” he said.  
 

Full article.

 

https://golf.com/news/how-fast-augustas-greens-water-bottle-story-stun/

[b.helts]

1 minute ago, pinhigh27 said:

refuting minutiae? I'm saying someone effectively shooting 81.5 in this scenario isn't exactly like a raving " everyone will break 85 endorsement. What is minutiae about this? They were 3 shots away 

 

Yes. Refuting minutiae. Just like your post that I'm replying to. Instead of answering the question I asked, you are attacking my choice of verbiage.

 

I don't think anyone is raving that everyone will break 85 and Obee's friend was not "3 shots away". You using your imagination to create arguments as if they are fact.

 

So, what is it you claim? What's your point?

[Obee]

5 minutes ago, pinhigh27 said:

refuting minutiae? I'm saying someone effectively shooting 81.5 in this scenario isn't exactly like a raving " everyone will break 85 endorsement. What is minutiae about this? They were 3 shots away 

 

But we've always been talking "could," never, ever "will." And I'm not interested in 1/100 being "could." That's not "could." But 25%? 30%? 40%? Those are all "could." It's the guys who think it's not possible at all and/or a 1 - 10 in 100 possibility that I take major exception with. That's why we're still debating. I'll stop as soon as the doubters acknowledge 30%ish could do it. Until then, I'm in this for the long haul! 😂

[Obee]

7 minutes ago, Bye said:

Sorry stirring the pot again. 😉
 

How much faster would the greens be for the tournament from how the members play it, 2 feet? 
 

Scott, during his pre-tournament press conference, said during a typical week, Augusta will slowly put its foot on the grass gas. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday they’re one speed. Tournament time they become another. “Then they cut your legs out from under you on Thursday and you’re scared every chip shot and all of a sudden downhill putts are running to the edge of the green and stuff like that,” he said.  
 

Full article.

 

https://golf.com/news/how-fast-augustas-greens-water-bottle-story-stun/

 

Completely depends. MOST tournaments, the greens are similar speed from Wednesday through Sunday. Supers try to get the greens up to speed the day before the tournament so that they are putting on the practice putting green at about the speed they are going to play for the tournament. They don't generally "trick" the players on purpose. Sometimes conditions change a bit due to weather, etc. Also, traditionally, scoring on Sunday at the Masters has been LOWER than average, if I'm not mistaken, which means they don't get faster and faster and faster.

 

Also, I'm fairly certain there's data out there that pros putt very similarly at Augusta versus other courses. Better inside 10 feet, in fact. going to look that up...

[pinhigh27]

16 minutes ago, b.helts said:

 

Yes. Refuting minutiae. Just like your post that I'm replying to. Instead of answering the question I asked, you are attacking my choice of verbiage.

 

I don't think anyone is raving that everyone will break 85 and Obee's friend was not "3 shots away". You using your imagination to create arguments as if they are fact.

 

So, what is it you claim? What's your point?

What exactly about this is hard for you to understand? We're debating on how likely it is. I have said numerous times I think like 5/100 would do it. Obee presented his buddy as an example to his point. I was saying I don't think his buddy's performance means 50% of scratch golfers would break 85. 

 

I responded directly to what you said. 

 

Imagination? It's using data. The friend is objectively 1.4 shots better than scratch. We are estimating the members tees are 5 shots easier than the tips. So to gleam useful data about how a non-scratch golfer on a different set of tees applies to a scratch golfer from the tips, we have to use math to make inferences. How is that my imagination? 

 

You are just sticking your fingers in your ears and singing "nah nah nah" because I don't agree with you. You keep saying a bunch of big words like minutiae and imagination when we're talking about very basic concepts and math. 

 

 

 

 

[pinhigh27]

I also directly said what my point was in prior response, I'm not sure what about that is unclear

 

again " I'm saying someone effectively shooting 81.5 in this scenario isn't exactly like a raving " everyone will break 85 endorsement. " 

[b.helts]

5 minutes ago, pinhigh27 said:

I also directly said what my point was in prior response, I'm not sure what about that is unclear

 

again " I'm saying someone effectively shooting 81.5 in this scenario isn't exactly like a raving " everyone will break 85 endorsement. " 

 

So you agree that a scratch golfer could break 85 at Augusta in tournament conditions. I'm glad we got there, even if it took a little while.

 

Edit to add: I quoted the wrong post, but I don't think we disagree. I'm certainly not putting my fingers in my ears and saying "nah nah nah", which, not coincidentally in my opinion, is more of your imagination.

 

Once we agree that a scratch golfer could do it, we are just arguing minutiae about what percentage of scratch golfers.

Edited April 21, 2021 by b.helts

[Bye]

7 minutes ago, Obee said:

 

Completely depends. MOST tournaments, the greens are similar speed from Wednesday through Sunday. Supers try to get the greens up to speed the day before the tournament so that they are putting on the practice putting green at about the speed they are going to play for the tournament. They don't generally "trick" the players on purpose. Sometimes conditions change a bit due to weather, etc. Also, traditionally, scoring on Sunday at the Masters has been LOWER than average, if I'm not mistaken, which means they don't get faster and faster and faster.

 

Also, I'm fairly certain there's data out there that pros putt very similarly at Augusta versus other courses. Better inside 10 feet, in fact. going to look that up...

Yeah normally the day before they are close if the superintendent knows anything about golf (not all do). I mean 2-3 weeks prior, just how it is set up for the members. Like when your friend played. If they were running at 10 then it’s not quite the same.
 

I looked for some stats the other day, I think it was something like 1 GIR less per round and the average putts per round increased by 0.5 on against Tour average.

 

If you can convince me that I’m having 40 putts or less then I will concede. 

[pinhigh27]

1 minute ago, b.helts said:

 

So you agree that a scratch golfer could break 85 at Augusta in tournament conditions. I'm glad we got there, even if it took a little while.

I have said that numerous times throughout the thread. 

 

If you take the word could literally then a bogey golfer could break 85 if they had an out of body/extreme statistical anomaly performance. 

[Obee]

14 minutes ago, Bye said:

Sorry stirring the pot again. 😉
 

How much faster would the greens be for the tournament from how the members play it, 2 feet? 
 

Scott, during his pre-tournament press conference, said during a typical week, Augusta will slowly put its foot on the grass gas. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday they’re one speed. Tournament time they become another. “Then they cut your legs out from under you on Thursday and you’re scared every chip shot and all of a sudden downhill putts are running to the edge of the green and stuff like that,” he said.  
 

Full article.

 

https://golf.com/news/how-fast-augustas-greens-water-bottle-story-stun/

 

2 minutes ago, Bye said:

Yeah normally the day before they are close if the superintendent knows anything about golf (not all do). I mean 2-3 weeks prior, just how it is set up for the members. Like when your friend played. If they were running at 10 then it’s not quite the same.
 

I looked for some stats the other day, I think it was something like 1 GIR less per round and the average putts per round increased by 0.5 on against Tour average.

 

If you can convince me that I’m having 40 putts or less then I will concede. 

 

Again it's a range. You're probably going to have 28 to 42 putts -- even first time. Much of that will depend on your short game.

 

And all of that above is true EXCEPT (often) at clubs like Augusta, Oakmont, etc.

 

They tend to maintain their greens ridiculously well whenever they are open for play. Why else would people join a club like that? They join for (close to) the "tournament experience" whenever they play. 1.5 to 2 feet different? Sure. But they aren't 10 and then 15. I'll ask my buddy what he thinks they were when he played. And this is a guy who has played Oakmont, et al. over the years. Knows green speeds. 🙂

 

[oikos1]

8 minutes ago, b.helts said:

 

So you agree that a scratch golfer could break 85 at Augusta in tournament conditions. I'm glad we got there, even if it took a little while.

 

Edit to add: I quoted the wrong post, but I don't think we disagree. I'm certainly not putting my fingers in my ears and saying "nah nah nah", which, not coincidentally in my opinion, is more of your imagination.

 

Once we agree that a scratch golfer could do it, we are just arguing minutiae about what percentage of scratch golfers.

That's sort of where we have gotten to.  Yes, a scratch could do it.  How many?  The idea being that it would be difficult the first time out under the original stipulations and that more than not would struggle.

[b.helts]

9 minutes ago, oikos1 said:

That's sort of where we have gotten to.  Yes, a scratch could do it.  How many?  The idea being that it would be difficult the first time out under the original stipulations and that more than not would struggle.

 

"more than not would struggle" 

 

I think that's fair.

[lchang]

3 hours ago, Pinky5 said:

The big qualifier here is what state are the greens in? If they are like they were at this years masters, it would be hard to do. I am sure some guys could do it barely, but it would be tough. Soft greens I bet a lot more would do it. True scratch golfers are pretty good. A round in the 80s for them is really bad.

 

 

This is just not true for a course rated at 79:  "True scratch golfers are pretty good. A round in the 80s for them is really bad"

[NoFancyUsername.]

Hey DF...you want to chime in?  😀

 

[BNGL]

On 4/21/2021 at 4:28 PM, Obee said:

 

 

Again it's a range. You're probably going to have 28 to 42 putts -- even first time. Much of that will depend on your short game.

 

And all of that above is true EXCEPT (often) at clubs like Augusta, Oakmont, etc.

 

They tend to maintain their greens ridiculously well whenever they are open for play. Why else would people join a club like that? They join for (close to) the "tournament experience" whenever they play. 1.5 to 2 feet different? Sure. But they aren't 10 and then 15. I'll ask my buddy what he thinks they were when he played. And this is a guy who has played Oakmont, et al. over the years. Knows green speeds. 🙂

 

So if you could stimp the greens, there are some greens that are flat enough, although there is an equation for finding speeds with slope accounted for in the equation rather than the recommended USGA average of going back and forth. Green speeds vary at ANGC if I had to guess 16 would be 16+ and 12 is a 12.5 tops. That’s the beauty of ANGC and The Masters, each hole is setup the best way possible to challenge golf players and receive the appropriate shot. 
 

For “daily” member play they’re around consistently around high 11s mid 12s.

[b.mattay]

On 4/19/2021 at 4:41 PM, pinhigh27 said:

Scratch golfers shoot 7 over the rating all the time 

Not sure I agree with this premise. I haven't done that once in the past 2-3 years! 

 

Certainly possible if your emotional control and course management is suspect though. 

Edited April 26, 2021 by b.mattay

[pinhigh27]

20 minutes ago, b.mattay said:

Not sure I agree with this premise. I haven't done that once in the past 2-3 years! 

 

Certainly possible if your emotional control and course management is suspect though. 

Rory can shoot 79. Pretty sure you can shoot 7 over the rating and likely do sometimes. Whatever you gotta tell yourself 

 

[pinhigh27]

rating from tips at sawgrass is 76.4, so rory shooting 79 there as probably like +8 would be a bigger difference than a scratch golfer shooting 7 over the rating 

 

Everyone has bad rounds. 

[caniac6]

If a scratch golfer had a good local caddie, I have no doubt he can break 85.