MD/DC/VA Golfers - Twelve Monkeys Mental Divergence

[FAbb]

Ignore the toxic masculinity, and do whatever helps you make the  lowest score, @ALTSean.  That said, I believe that trying to go wedge-wedge will ultimately not produce the lowest score.

[dcmidnight]

2 minutes ago, FAbb said:

Ignore the toxic masculinity, and do whatever helps you make the  lowest score, @ALTSean.  That said, I believe that trying to go wedge-wedge will ultimately not produce the lowest score.

 

To me there is an insinuation in the layup idea that you are going to hit the fairway anyway so therefore it is the safe play. 

 

That layup area looks narrow AF - you're telling me its 100% you layup and hit a good spot on land? No way.

[ALTSean]

9 hours ago, aiyyer said:

Absolutely disagree with everything Eagle in general but he’s correct. You have to man up and play certain holes as intended and designed by the designer. Move up a tee if you need to....

Take 18 at Perry Cabin. Par 4 requires 2 or three great shots with the wind in your face to get to the green as intended by the designer. Easy way would be to hit it to the adjacent fairway but that fairway is out of bounds as designated to discourage wussiness on a great closing hole.

 

 

 

 

@aiyyer, comparing a long, tight Par 3 to playing up another fairway that would be out of bounds is

 

 

Edited September 9, 2020 by ALTSean

[ALTSean]

51 minutes ago, dcmidnight said:

 

To me there is an insinuation in the layup idea that you are going to hit the fairway anyway so therefore it is the safe play. 

 

That layup area looks narrow AF - you're telling me its 100% you layup and hit a good spot on land? No way.

 

The "fairway" is about 60 feet / 20 yards wide per Google maps measuring tool.  You cannot miss left or you're wet.  Missing right is almost as bad as that stupid cart path will kick you more right into the creek and trees.  The hole really just demands a solid long and straight shot.  The hole is 220 from the tips, 196 from the blacks, where we played, and 169 from the whites.  Assuming you are playing from a tee box appropriate to your distance, guys are still hitting long irons or hybrids off the tee.  

 

Wedge / wedge may not be the best strategy, but I'd consider ~7I then half wedge.  I'd bet that if two ~10 handicaps played the hole 10 times from the black tees at 196 yards and Player A went for the green 10 times and Player B laid up 10 times, that Player B would have a lower aggregate score.  The dispersion for a 10 handicap is so much lower / tighter with a 7I than say a 4I or hybrid.  Player A would put up some big numbers like double bogey + because when you miss left off the tee, you are basically reteeing because there is no drop zone so you cannot advance the ball much for your drop unless you hit a hard hook that crossed the lateral further up.  

 

Last rambling thought, the hole would be better and easier without the stupid cart path.  The path almost divides the hole in half visually and it does present a hazard in itself in addition to the lake left and trees and creek right.    

 

 

Edited September 9, 2020 by ALTSean

[Ocgolfrick]

The Blue Mash Pairings...

[eagle1997]

Sean, give up while you're behind.

 

I've seen you hit wedges (or 7is) before 

 

Edited September 9, 2020 by eagle1997

[FAbb]

I think an average 10-cap ought to play it about here.

 

[ALTSean]

2 minutes ago, eagle1997 said:

Sean, give up while you're behind.

 

 

This is the most banter we've had in days, I can't give up now.  

[eagle1997]

Shall we discuss your half-wedge game?

[ALTSean]

2 minutes ago, eagle1997 said:

Shall we discuss your half-wedge game?

 

It's better than my long iron game.

[ALTSean]

8 minutes ago, FAbb said:

I think an average 10-cap ought to play it about here.

 

 

 

There is about 100 feet / 33 yards from cart path to the water / railroad ties.  Assuming you aim at the center of that circle, you 'd have about 16 yards to miss left or right which seems like a reasonable task until you're standing on the tee box 200 yards away cursing the ghost of Pete Dye.

 

 

[eagle1997]

Played Lakewood for the first time yesterday with @top.h, @Von_Oberhausen and another buddy, not sure he's on here.

 

Good times, highly recommend.  Layout was fantastic.  Fit my eye on so many shots. Definitely want to go back.  We all flashed with some ridiculously golf shots, paired of course with atrocious ones.  Was +4 thru 15, then fell off a cliff coming in.  I'm working on commitment to the shot.  It's a challenge, especially when the mid-irons aren't complying.  

[ALTSean]

9 minutes ago, eagle1997 said:

I'm working on commitment to the shot.  It's a challenge, especially when the mid-irons aren't complying.  

 

Should have gone wedge / wedge.  

[eagle1997]

I prefer the topped 7i-bladed half wedge thankyouverymuch

[dcmidnight]

49 minutes ago, ALTSean said:

I'd bet that if two ~10 handicaps played the hole 10 times from the black tees at 196 yards and Player A went for the green 10 times and Player B laid up 10 times, that Player B would have a lower aggregate score.

 

I would take this bet and max bet you every time.

 

Player B is still going to hit a couple of balls into the water trying to layup. And thats water left or right. The idea that a 10 hdcp just hits a dead straight layup is...no bueno.

 

I'll take Player A every time. Even if Player A hits 3 in the water - which I would think is the high end - on the other 7 they have an up/down/short game shot OR they are on the green and putting for birdie. Player B is making 0 birdies and frankly is struggling to make pars some % of the time.

[ALTSean]

27 minutes ago, dcmidnight said:

 

I would take this bet and max bet you every time.

 

Player B is still going to hit a couple of balls into the water trying to layup. And thats water left or right. The idea that a 10 hdcp just hits a dead straight layup is...no bueno.

 

I'll take Player A every time. Even if Player A hits 3 in the water - which I would think is the high end - on the other 7 they have an up/down/short game shot OR they are on the green and putting for birdie. Player B is making 0 birdies and frankly is struggling to make pars some % of the time.

 

There probably is some high speed computer simulation that could test this out and produce likely outcomes, but here is my back of the napkin math simulation including your theory that Player A hits 3 in the water, resulting in double bogey +, and makes a couple pars and let's throw in a birdie for fun:

 

Player A - Going for Green:

Attempt #1: 3

#2: 5 (water ball #1)

#3: 4

#4: 4

#5: 6 (water ball #2)

#6: 4

#7: 3

#8: 6 (water ball #3)

#9: 4

#10: 2

Total score: 41 (1 birdie, 2 pars, 4 bogeys, 1 double, 2 triples)

 

Player B - Laying Up:

Attempt #1: 4

#2: 5 (water ball)

#3: 4

#4: 3 (up and down for par)

#5: 4

#6: 4

#7: 3 (up and down for par)

#8: 5 (chunks wedge)

#9: 4

#10: 4

Total score: 40 (0 birdies, 2 pars, 6 bogeys, 2 doubles)

 

Even with this basic simulation, the result is probably closer than I would have guessed.  The real variable is how many big numbers Player A makes.  If Player A makes a couple 6s and 7s, than Player B wins.  Player B is obviously limiting his low number chances as he would likely only get a couple pars out of ten attempts and will still make a lot of bogeys and probably a few doubles.  

 

In my scenario above, I think I've still underestimated the scores and I do not think ~10 caps would play this hole to a ~4 scoring average.  I'd bet the scoring average is closer to 4.5 to 5 no matter the strategy.  

 

 

Edited September 9, 2020 by ALTSean

[ALTSean]

A 10 handicap is close to a 4 scoring average on a 175-200 yard par 3 and this par 3 is more difficult than most, so a scoring average of 4.5 to 5 is probably about right:

 

 

[SullGolf]

The “layup” (good god man, it’s a par 3) area is tiny.  I’d be playing long right like FAbb suggested.

 

Sean what’s your strategy for playing #11 at Blue Mash?  Just hit putter a few times to avoid bringing trouble in to play?

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 9, 2020 by SullGolf

[dcmidnight]

So Player A is going to hit 3 balls in the water - and on two of those he's making 6? 

 

BM11 is a good example, I was trying to think of a longer all water par 3 in the area but couldnt pull one off the top of my head.

[tungstenplug]

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/12/sports/golf/12casper.html

 

Billy Casper layed up on the par-3 3rd hole at Winged Foot all four rounds en route to winning the US Open in 1959

 

 

Edited February 26, 2023 by tungstenplug

[aiyyer]

22 minutes ago, dcmidnight said:

So Player A is going to hit 3 balls in the water - and on two of those he's making 6? 

 

BM11 is a good example, I was trying to think of a longer all water par 3 in the area but couldnt pull one off the top of my head.

Sean,

Can we just play the game as athletes and not as accountants?

[aiyyer]

Love to see a layup on Blue Mash 17 Saturday

[SullGolf]

Look how much space there is to the right of the water.  Sean's gonna hit wedge to the 10th green, then wedge to the 17th green.

Edited September 9, 2020 by SullGolf

[Ocgolfrick]

$5 AltSean Net beats SullGolf Net Saturday.  Laying up with wedge on #17 optional for both players.  Desired, but not required.

 

[dcmidnight]

I'll take SullGolfnet

 

(shake)

[Ocgolfrick]

/shake

 

[thechief16]

1 hour ago, dcmidnight said:

 

 

BM11 is a good example, I was trying to think of a longer all water par 3 in the area but couldnt pull one off the top of my head.

Westfields 3? Albeit with a wider (but more shallow) green.

[SullGolf]

I raised my handicap 0.8 strokes in the last 2 rounds.  So that raises two possibilities: 1) I dominate and win by 1 stroke on the back of some quality poor play recently, or 2) my handicap goes up another stroke as a result of the round and I lose by 20.

[ALTSean]

15 minutes ago, Ocgolfrick said:

$5 AltSean Net beats SullGolf Net Saturday.  Laying up with wedge on #17 optional for both players.  Desired, but not required.

 

 

(Whipsers to @Ocgolfrick: hey buddy, I like the confidence, but I've never played Blue Mash before.)

[ALTSean]

1 hour ago, tungstenplug said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/12/sports/golf/12casper.html

 

Billy Casper layed up on the par-3 3rd hole at Winged Foot all four rounds en route to winning the US Open in 1959

 

I'd elect to go for it because its more fun, but in extreme cases I could see a layup being smart if you hated the yardage or had a 2-way miss going

 

I think the 10 capper lays up then hits his second shot in the water at least once out of 10 times

 

 

Be like Billy.