Odds of making eagle on par 4?

[golfersailor]

Last Friday I made a eagle on a par 4 sinking my 2nd shot 165 yards out. Now today same hole I was 180 yards out wind in my face and my 2nd shot went in the hole. Same hole different pin placement and wind. How rare is this?

[North Butte]

I've made three in 25+ years of playing roughly 120-140 rounds of golf per year. If you figure about 10 Par 4's per round, 125 rounds per year, call it about 32,000 Par 4's. So my odds must be about once per 10,000 Par 4 holes played.

 

But here's the puzzler. Two of the three were to the same Par 4, using the same club, hitting from darned near the same spot and they were both in the same calendar month. What do you think the odds of that were?

[GeorgeHWB]

> @"North Butte" said:

> I've made three in 25+ years of playing roughly 120-140 rounds of golf per year. If you figure about 10 Par 4's per round, 125 rounds per year, call it about 32,000 Par 4's. So my odds must be about once per 10,000 Par 4 holes played.

>

> But here's the puzzler. Two of the three were to the same Par 4, using the same club, hitting from darned near the same spot and they were both in the same calendar month. What do you think the odds of that were?

 

And both were using the same Kirkland Signature ball!

[RobertBaron]

Depending on handicap and distance, I could see a short driveable par 4 being somewhere in the 20-30% eagle chance.

Probably if you’re above a 10 and max out at 250-260, the odds of making eagle get considerably less.

[spineshank]

I have made 2 ever. But 1 was, I drove the green, and the other was a pitch from about 50 yards.

[larrybud]

I've holed out on par 4s at least 6 times (I made a quick list of the times I remember, there's probably a couple more). I also have two aces. I'm also a short hitter, I think the shortest approach I had was about 130 yards, with the longest being 185.

 

Two of them had distinct slopes. One was a big one from back to front, ball literally took 10 seconds after hitting the green, climbed the hill, then I watched it slowly come back to the front, and disappear!

 

[CallawayLefty]

> @RobertBaron said:

> Depending on handicap and distance, I could see a short driveable par 4 being somewhere in the 20-30% eagle chance.

> Probably if you’re above a 10 and max out at 250-260, the odds of making eagle get considerably less.

 

Between 1 and 3 and 1 and 5 odds of an eagle? I have played in scratch groups for 10 years and would guess I’ve seen no more than maybe 15 eagles in that time - including on courses with short par 4s. That would have to be a really short and really easy par 4 to get anywhere close to that. Assuming it’s a normal “short” par 4 which is typically right around 300 yards, I’d say eagle odds are more like 1 in 50 in a group of scratch players.

[SNIPERBBB]

It's fairly low...you might see one or two a week at a pga event.

[Mcgeeno]

We have some shorter par 4's at my course I eagle a few times a year. (Golfwrx long humble brag obviously)

 

I've only ever holed out from 100+ for eagle once though so I would say pretty rare.

[vbb]

Definitely rare. There is one hole in the 4 or 5 courses that I play with regularity that I can drive the green without having to hit a career long drive, and I've never eagled it. I think holing out from an approach shot greater than about 50yds is just fluky and who knows what the odds actually are. It's funny though that I've holed out from over 100yds 3 separate times and never were they for eagle (only birdie after a bad 2nd shot or drop from hitting an errant drive into a red staked hazard).

[mhudson111]

Here are the 2019 PGA stats for Par 4 eagle leaders from

https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.447.2019.html

 

Looks like leaders make a Par 4 holeout once every 20 - 40 **_rounds_**

 

 

 

 

[Creativebob1952]

Just to add to the conversation, I eagled a par four twice in 8 days on the same course, same hole. Odds of that might be quite high. Also the last eagle is my 5th eagle for 2020. Before that, I have to go back probably about 10 years, to find my last eagle. Sure is easier from the senior tees at my club.

[Lincoln_Arcadia]

On 9/25/2019 at 11:28 AM, golfersailor said:

Last Friday I made a eagle on a par 4 sinking my 2nd shot 165 yards out. Now today same hole I was 180 yards out wind in my face and my 2nd shot went in the hole. Same hole different pin placement and wind. How rare is this?

 

Typically on drivable par 4s. This is extremely rare!

 

Cool! Nice Job!

[Myherobobhope]

Odds are always interesting and fun! If you have a .02% chance of holing out for eagle, the next time you play the hole, your odds are still .02%... the chances of it happening back to back however is .0002%.

[rich_s2]

Just got one on Saturday 

[Barfolomew]

Magic 8 ball says no friggin way...

[scooterhd2]

Never eagled a par 4. 

[CB67]

I eagled a par 4 for the first time in my life last week 280 drive 160 9 iron. A guy at our club in 2009 had 3 hole in ones in 5 days. I have no idea the math behind that one . He did a bunch of radio shows and local interviews about it. 
 

But a man in our community also won the lottery twice in 7 years. In 2013 he won 3 million some and then just last month won 17 million. He bought both tickets at the exact same small corner store in his little rural small town community.

 

Look him up Raymond Lillington two time lotto 649 winner. After seeing that I believe the odds of any thing can happen ?

Edited September 23, 2020 by CB67

[RoyalMustang]

On 9/26/2019 at 12:55 AM, RobertBaron said:

Depending on handicap and distance, I could see a short driveable par 4 being somewhere in the 20-30% eagle chance.

Probably if you’re above a 10 and max out at 250-260, the odds of making eagle get considerably less.

 

So, for a 290 hole, 4 to 6 times out of 10 one is putting from 8 feet, which gives them a 50% chance of draining that put and a 20-30% chance overall of eagle?  Must be a lot more accurate driver than most. 

 

I got my first par 4 eagle recently.  285 hole (dogleg right) which I drove with a 3 hybrid (probably 255-260).  Chipped in from the edge of the rough.  Total luck but I will take it! 

[RoyalMustang]

On 9/26/2019 at 1:21 PM, CallawayLefty said:

> @RobertBaron said:

> Depending on handicap and distance, I could see a short driveable par 4 being somewhere in the 20-30% eagle chance.

> Probably if you’re above a 10 and max out at 250-260, the odds of making eagle get considerably less.

 

Between 1 and 3 and 1 and 5 odds of an eagle? I have played in scratch groups for 10 years and would guess I’ve seen no more than maybe 15 eagles in that time - including on courses with short par 4s. That would have to be a really short and really easy par 4 to get anywhere close to that. Assuming it’s a normal “short” par 4 which is typically right around 300 yards, I’d say eagle odds are more like 1 in 50 in a group of scratch players.

 

that is what I was thinking.  Scratch make rate of what, 50% from 8 feet? Which means twice that many balls would have to be within 8 feet of the hole to see an eagle.  Even for a 10% eagle rate, we would need 1 out of 5 balls to be within 8 feet, or from 15 feet, 4 or 5 out of 10 balls within that radius to get 1/10 to drop.  

[RoyalMustang]

On 9/25/2019 at 1:28 PM, golfersailor said:

Last Friday I made a eagle on a par 4 sinking my 2nd shot 165 yards out. Now today same hole I was 180 yards out wind in my face and my 2nd shot went in the hole. Same hole different pin placement and wind. How rare is this?

 

Pretty awesome!  I hope you bought a lottery ticket as well: don't get used to it!  I have never holed a swing from more than 40 yards.  

[miamistomp]

 Golf , we all know , is a funny game.

    I was supposed to play with a friend who was running late 

      I started alone and on the 3rd hole( par 4)- holed a 6 iron from about 160 yards for an eagle

        On the 5th hole ( a par three ) he caught up to me and I of course told him about the eagle

          He comes back with the classic" if no witness- it didn't happen.

             We tee off on 5 and I rip an 8 iron and ACE it- He saw that one !

                 I rattle off the classic Walter Brennan line " No brag, just fact"

                   My friend wasn't born in the USA and never saw Guns of Will Sonnet so- the irony was lost ? but it was a fun round !

                  

Edited September 23, 2020 by miamistomp

[2bGood]

What you did is wildly rare holing out from that distance is like making HOI.  

 

I have 2 in back to back rounds on the same hole this year. Tee box up both days so I played more like a long par 3 (Hybrid one day 3 wood the next). 

Edited September 27, 2021 by 2bGood

[rexroh]

I think the chances of eagle on a par 4 is much like getting. 1 on a par 3.  Possibly slightly longer adds as you have to put your tee shot in play.  
It is my belief that seniors get more of these than low handicap long hitters.   The senior has the ball rolling across the green and can hit the pin and drop.  The low handicapper has his ball bounce once or twice and roll or spin backwards a few feet.  Less chance of hitting the pin.

it is just a matter the hole being short enough for the senior to reach the green. 
 

[bluedot]

On 9/26/2020 at 1:26 AM, rexroh said:

I think the chances of eagle on a par 4 is much like getting. 1 on a par 3.  Possibly slightly longer adds as you have to put your tee shot in play.  
It is my belief that seniors get more of these than low handicap long hitters.   The senior has the ball rolling across the green and can hit the pin and drop.  The low handicapper has his ball bounce once or twice and roll or spin backwards a few feet.  Less chance of hitting the pin.

it is just a matter the hole being short enough for the senior to reach the green. 
 

 

I have no idea what the odds would be for the entire world of golf, but for me, the odds of an eagle on a par 4 have proven to much, much worse than the odds of a 1 on a par 3.  I'm old guy who is a stats freak, who plays a LOT of golf, and I have exactly 50 eagles to date; 5 have been par three holes in one, and 8 have been on par 4's.  8 is more than 5, of course, but given that we typically play 10 par 4's versus only 4 par 3's in a round, there are a LOT more chances to hole out the second shot on a par 4.  (FWIW, only two of my par 4 eagles have been a drive and a putt; the others have all been hole outs from the fairway or the fringe.)

 

I don't really know what to attribute this to; maybe it's that we typically hit the ball off a tee on a par three instead of the ground, or that we know exactly what club to use, or maybe something else entirely.  And I recognize that I'm a small sample size and therefore subject to the laws of small numbers.  But I'd be willing to bet that, from the PGA Tour on down, not only are the VAST majority of eagles on par 5's, but that the par 4/par 3 rates are very similar, if not in favor of par three holes in one.

 

[rexroh]

Bluedot I tend to agree with you.  Eagles on par 5’s are much easier if/when you can reach the green in two.  Short driveable par 4’s also. 
 

I have had two holes in one and two 2’s (albatross) on par 5’s. I have had many more 2’s on par 4’s long and short.  Unfortunately I have not kept accurate records over the years but I think it would be 10 or more. However at least two of those would be on short par 4’s. Most have been short to mid iron second shot.  
 

it has been a few years since I have achieved any of these as now at 77 yrs I am what I consider a short hitter. Not all fours are reachable in two these days.  It is difficult to get my swing, the Golfing Gods, and luck all aligned at the same time. I still get the occasional tap in birdie so I still hope.

[dubbelbogey]

I've had two - one from about 100yds out, and the second from 160yds.

 

The first I consider easier/more common than an ace on a par 3, due to distance.

 

The second I consider plain luck. I hit it decently on the clubface, but it didn't feel perfectly flush, if we're being totally fair. It was to an elevated pin, so I couldn't see the shape of the green and it was on a course I'd never played. I just hit the club to the distance the GPS called out, hoping I'd hit the middle of the green. Walked up just hoping it was on the green. Looked in the flower beds behind the green, not there, because it was in the cup.

 

But, with a couple of decades playing golf, I still don't have an ace. I guess a number of PGA Tour pros don't either, so I guess I'm in good company there!

[FlyingAce]

Someone at my club made an Albatross/Ace on a 335yd Par 4 a few weeks ago.  Luck had to have played a role since the shot was made with a hybrid. Talk about rare!

[Ty_Webb]

On 9/26/2020 at 9:14 AM, footmashie said:

Wonder what the odds are when calling the hole out beforehand.

 

I played a scramble once. I hit my drive in the fairway and one of my playing partners hit his drive in the fairway about 10 yards short of mine. His shot left about 180 in and mine left 170. Three of us assumed that we would play my drive. The guy who hit the other one wound up on his knees begging us to take his. I asked him why and he just said he really wanted to. He wouldn't take no for an answer and we gave in and let him hit it from his ball. He holed it. We stood there dumbfounded. I have no idea how he knew, but he certainly seemed to. This wasn't something he made a habit of either.

 

As to two eagles on a longish par four odds are massively against. Worse than making two holes in one on the same par three, since you have to hit the fairway too.

[chickwebb]

Sorry to bump an old thread, but have to share.  TLDR; Yesterday I holed out twice from the fairway for two eagles.  First was on the opening hole.  Hit a PW from 120.  Green was well uphill so I didn't see it go in, but the line was good.  Get up the the green and no ball.  Hmmm.  Pitch mark's about 10 feet above and beyond the hole, so I look and sure enough, it's in.

 

Second was on #11.  A good drive had me about 85 yards from an up pin.  Hit a gentle 54 degree that landed about 2 feet beyond and just right of the stick.  It took a hop and spun back, went "clank", and disappeared.  Needless to say I was shocked.  No idea what the odds of that are, but it's certainly one for my own record books, anyway.

 

Perhaps even more wild is I almost did it again(!) on 18, this one a par 5.  I had tugged my 2nd a bit and clipped a big cyprus that threw it straight down, so I had about 60 yards to the flag.  Chipped over a big bunker and couldn't see the ball land, but my playing partners started shouting "that's got a chance"!  They got louder as it rolled down the hill toward the cup and let out a collective scream when it lipped out.  Kick-in birdie to finish wasn't bad, but oh to have joined the Chez Reavie club!

 

I make a lot of eagles on the par 5's on my home course (Seascape), as we have 3 that are under 500 yards, so it's not unusual to be putting for those.  I've even made one albatross (of several) there.   And I've holed out more times than I can remember.  Ironically, though, I still don't have a hole-in-one.  Anywhere.  After 50+ years of playing at a pretty high level.  Go figure.  Stupid game.  Great day, though.  And thanks to my wife for the surprise shirt.  USA!