2019 TOTO Japan Classic Nov 08 - 10

[ChronicSlicer]

> @musclefront said:

> > @Argonne69 said:

> > I can understand Hinako's reluctance given that she's only a rookie. However, Ai has been around for a few years. Time to step up. I'm sure there are people who'd support her and help with the transition. These opportunities don't come around every day.

> >

>

> Why? The US isn’t the end all be all for everyone and I’m sure she has a pretty fulfilling life in Japan. I’ve been there a number of times (wife is Japanese) and it’s awesome there! :)

 

See my comment above for starters.

[AWinfortheAges]

From reviewing the Rolex Rankings, a win in most events on JLPGA is equivalent to between a 2nd and 3rd place finish, about 20 points, in most non-major events on the LPGA tour.

 

I think the Japanese Olympic Golf Coach, the JLPGA and whatever governing bodies(golf/and Olympic) they have Japan need to get with the camps of Suzuki, Hataoka and Shibuno (if they haven't already) and provide them whatever assistance they need to try and get all three of them into the top 15 Rolex Rankiings. They can include Yui Kawamoto, Mamiko Higa, Momoko Ueda (and anyone else that might be able to win a major) in this as well.

 

I'd hate to see Suzuki or Shibuno not make the Olympic field. Both have the ability to win any given week on the JLPGA, Ai has shown this over 2 seasons while Shibuno has just shown this over 1 season. If past is prologue, the two should be close in Rolex Ranking all season, but I'd give a slight edge to Suzuki to pass Shibuno.

 

Last Olympic year, 2016, it looks like the JLPGA was business as usual with no schedule changes or breaks. I wonder if there will be any schedule adjusments in 2020. Suzuki and Shibuno may have to break from off season camp early and play in the Australian Open and HSBC prior to the start of the JLPGA season to try and earn some additional points to get them in the top 15.

 

 

[Newinup]

Shibuno became "priority athlete" after winning the BO and her rankings within top 15 by the Japan Olympic committee... This Gave her early and priority access to some elite facilities and training etc. I wonder if this has been extended to Ai ( and I think it would, maybe within this week if I recall the timeline for Hinako, which was within the world after she won BO) ...

 

JLPGA? I haven't seen any sked revamps to protect their own bets' rankings for the Olympics eg top 15. Let's see where the chips fall the next few days/weeks... They won't immediately act on this as they want to make sure this does not backfire on them later...

[Titleist_PT23]

> @AWinfortheAges said:

> From reviewing the Rolex Rankings, a win in most events on JLPGA is equivalent to between a 2nd and 3rd place finish, about 20 points, in most non-major events on the LPGA tour.

>

> I think the Japanese Olympic Golf Coach, the JLPGA and whatever governing bodies(golf/and Olympic) they have Japan need to get with the camps of Suzuki, Hataoka and Shibuno (if they haven't already) and provide them whatever assistance they need to try and get all three of them into the top 15 Rolex Rankiings. They can include Yui Kawamoto, Mamiko Higa, Momoko Ueda (and anyone else that might be able to win a major) in this as well.

>

> I'd hate to see Suzuki or Shibuno not make the Olympic field. Both have the ability to win any given week on the JLPGA, Ai has shown this over 2 seasons while Shibuno has just shown this over 1 season. If past is prologue, the two should be close in Rolex Ranking all season, but I'd give a slight edge to Suzuki to pass Shibuno.

>

> Last Olympic year, 2016, it looks like the JLPGA was business as usual with no schedule changes or breaks. I wonder if there will be any schedule adjusments in 2020. Suzuki and Shibuno may have to break from off season camp early and play in the Australian Open and HSBC prior to the start of the JLPGA season to try and earn some additional points to get them in the top 15.

One of Suzuki or Shibuno (or at least a 2nd Japanese player) should make it with Hataoka.

 

I assume each of Ai and Shibuno will play HSBC in SG, ANA, USWO, and KPMG Women's PGA (I'm assuming this event is held before the rankings are fixed) [Edit, Shibuno is definitely eligible for all of them, I assume Ai is as well). The two Australian events are relatively weak fields, so it would probably be better to use the sponsor exemptions into Thailand (Honda - should be doable) and a few tournaments in the US around the majors if you are trying to maximize the opportunities to win points. The thing is, if they don't play well in the U.S. they would have been better off winning a lower tournament back home.

 

Nice pick on Ai last week! I do think it would be cool if Japan can somehow have 3 players in the Top 15. I still think Shibuno has a slight advantage due to the roll-off Ai faces and all of the points she won from the AIG Women's British Open (it's like 5 JLPGA wins). I guess we will know more what the situation is next week.

[musclefront]

> @ChronicSlicer said:

> > @musclefront said:

> > > @Argonne69 said:

> > > I can understand Hinako's reluctance given that she's only a rookie. However, Ai has been around for a few years. Time to step up. I'm sure there are people who'd support her and help with the transition. These opportunities don't come around every day.

> > >

> >

> > Why? The US isn’t the end all be all for everyone and I’m sure she has a pretty fulfilling life in Japan. I’ve been there a number of times (wife is Japanese) and it’s awesome there! :)

>

> See my comment above for starters.

 

Yea I read it and still stand by my comment. Not everyone wants to leave home to climb to the top

[ChronicSlicer]

> @musclefront said:

> > @ChronicSlicer said:

> > > @musclefront said:

> > > > @Argonne69 said:

> > > > I can understand Hinako's reluctance given that she's only a rookie. However, Ai has been around for a few years. Time to step up. I'm sure there are people who'd support her and help with the transition. These opportunities don't come around every day.

> > > >

> > >

> > > Why? The US isn’t the end all be all for everyone and I’m sure she has a pretty fulfilling life in Japan. I’ve been there a number of times (wife is Japanese) and it’s awesome there! :)

> >

> > See my comment above for starters.

>

> Yea I read it and still stand by my comment. Not everyone wants to leave home to climb to the top

 

I don't blame them, but good luck getting to the top of the Rolex Rankings playing any where but the LPGA.

[Argonne69]

It's not a matter of Japan vs. the U. S. It's the LPGA vs the other tours. The LPGA is where the world's best come to compete. Not much different than F1 vs other racing series. International travel is just part of the life.

 

There are plenty of Asian players who have been successful on the LPGA, so it certainly is possible. One can travel back home on a regular basis, and many players do it.

 

I don't think anyone is suggesting that Ai pack her bags and move to the U. S. permanently. However, a few years on tour while she's at her professional peak would allow her to compete against the best.

 

 

[18majors]

> @agolf1 said:

> > @18majors said:

> > Hinako Shibuno dropped to #15 while Ai Suzuki jumped to #19 on the new Rolex ranking.

> > Most likely both Hinako and Ai will be out of Top-15; they'll need to fight for the one Olympics spot.

> > Meanwhile, Yui Kawamoto #65, will try her luck at LPGA.

> I think it's 50/50 whether Shibuno can hold Top 15. But I don't think both of them can do it on JLPGA, so it doesn't really matter.

>

> Shibuno has 1 JLPGA win that will roll-out of last 12 months period while Suzuki has 3 wins that will do the same (4 wins in 13-24 month stage will fall off). Unless both were to co-dominate the first half of 2020 JLPGA season, one of them likely has to watch on TV from home (unfortunately).

 

I've to disagree. Shibuno has zero chance to stay inside Top-15 if she plays JLPGA.

Shibuno doesn't just compete with Ai for Top-15; she's competing with Jessica Korda #16, So Yeaon Ryu #17, Lizette Salas #18 and Amy Yang #20. All of them play LPGA.

[Titleist_PT23]

> @18majors said:

> > @agolf1 said:

> > > @18majors said:

> > > Hinako Shibuno dropped to #15 while Ai Suzuki jumped to #19 on the new Rolex ranking.

> > > Most likely both Hinako and Ai will be out of Top-15; they'll need to fight for the one Olympics spot.

> > > Meanwhile, Yui Kawamoto #65, will try her luck at LPGA.

> > I think it's 50/50 whether Shibuno can hold Top 15. But I don't think both of them can do it on JLPGA, so it doesn't really matter.

> >

> > Shibuno has 1 JLPGA win that will roll-out of last 12 months period while Suzuki has 3 wins that will do the same (4 wins in 13-24 month stage will fall off). Unless both were to co-dominate the first half of 2020 JLPGA season, one of them likely has to watch on TV from home (unfortunately).

>

> I've to disagree. Shibuno has zero chance to stay inside Top-15 if she plays JLPGA.

> Shibuno doesn't just compete with Ai for Top-15; she's competing with Jessica Korda #16, So Yeaon Ryu #17, Lizette Salas #18 and Amy Yang #20. All of them play LPGA.

All of them played on the LPGA last two years and earned a number of points that have them below Shibuno. If you all think it's zero, I'll but a few grand down with each of you at 1,000,000 to 1 odds.

 

Will Shibuno stay in in the Top 15 two years from now when the Women's British Open win rolls off? Extremely unlikely on JLPGA. But that's not the question. We are only looking at until next June.

[18majors]

> @agolf1 said:

> > @18majors said:

> > > @agolf1 said:

> > > > @18majors said:

> > > > Hinako Shibuno dropped to #15 while Ai Suzuki jumped to #19 on the new Rolex ranking.

> > > > Most likely both Hinako and Ai will be out of Top-15; they'll need to fight for the one Olympics spot.

> > > > Meanwhile, Yui Kawamoto #65, will try her luck at LPGA.

> > > I think it's 50/50 whether Shibuno can hold Top 15. But I don't think both of them can do it on JLPGA, so it doesn't really matter.

> > >

> > > Shibuno has 1 JLPGA win that will roll-out of last 12 months period while Suzuki has 3 wins that will do the same (4 wins in 13-24 month stage will fall off). Unless both were to co-dominate the first half of 2020 JLPGA season, one of them likely has to watch on TV from home (unfortunately).

> >

> > I've to disagree. Shibuno has zero chance to stay inside Top-15 if she plays JLPGA.

> > Shibuno doesn't just compete with Ai for Top-15; she's competing with Jessica Korda #16, So Yeaon Ryu #17, Lizette Salas #18 and Amy Yang #20. All of them play LPGA.

> All of them played on the LPGA last two years and earned a number of points that have them below Shibuno. If you all think it's zero, I'll but a few grand down with each of you at 1,000,000 to 1 odds.

>

> Will Shibuno stay in in the Top 15 two years from now when the Women's British Open win rolls off? Extremely unlikely on JLPGA. But that's not the question. We are only looking at until next June.

 

Not a million dollars; but I'll send you a check of $500.00 if Shibuno is inside Top-15 by Olympics deadline.

Provided if Shibuno plays JLPGA until then.

 

 

[AWinfortheAges]

> @18majors said:

> > @agolf1 said:

> > > @18majors said:

> > > > @agolf1 said:

> > > > > @18majors said:

> > > > > Hinako Shibuno dropped to #15 while Ai Suzuki jumped to #19 on the new Rolex ranking.

> > > > > Most likely both Hinako and Ai will be out of Top-15; they'll need to fight for the one Olympics spot.

> > > > > Meanwhile, Yui Kawamoto #65, will try her luck at LPGA.

> > > > I think it's 50/50 whether Shibuno can hold Top 15. But I don't think both of them can do it on JLPGA, so it doesn't really matter.

> > > >

> > > > Shibuno has 1 JLPGA win that will roll-out of last 12 months period while Suzuki has 3 wins that will do the same (4 wins in 13-24 month stage will fall off). Unless both were to co-dominate the first half of 2020 JLPGA season, one of them likely has to watch on TV from home (unfortunately).

> > >

> > > I've to disagree. Shibuno has zero chance to stay inside Top-15 if she plays JLPGA.

> > > Shibuno doesn't just compete with Ai for Top-15; she's competing with Jessica Korda #16, So Yeaon Ryu #17, Lizette Salas #18 and Amy Yang #20. All of them play LPGA.

> > All of them played on the LPGA last two years and earned a number of points that have them below Shibuno. If you all think it's zero, I'll but a few grand down with each of you at 1,000,000 to 1 odds.

> >

> > Will Shibuno stay in in the Top 15 two years from now when the Women's British Open win rolls off? Extremely unlikely on JLPGA. But that's not the question. We are only looking at until next June.

>

> Not a million dollars; but I'll send you a check of $500.00 if Shibuno is inside Top-15 by Olympics deadline.

>

>

 

Carlota and Hyo Joo Kim are 14 and 13 in the Rolex Rankings respectively, neither has a victory on the LPGA tour in her current calculation. It's possible that Shibuno and Suzuki win 4 times between now and the end of June. They will need high finishes in the 3 Majors and other LPGA events they participate in to obtain that top 15.

[Argonne69]

I don't see either staying in the top 20. Both have multiple wins on the JLPGA this season, and a win on the LPGA. Hyo Joo and Carlota are both winless this season, and still ranked higher than both.

 

Ai was ranked 24th before her win this past week. Hinako was ranked 46th before her WBO win. A win in there limited LPGA appearances next year are unlikely.

[Titleist_PT23]

> @18majors said:

> > @agolf1 said:

> > > @18majors said:

> > > > @agolf1 said:

> > > > > @18majors said:

> > > > > Hinako Shibuno dropped to #15 while Ai Suzuki jumped to #19 on the new Rolex ranking.

> > > > > Most likely both Hinako and Ai will be out of Top-15; they'll need to fight for the one Olympics spot.

> > > > > Meanwhile, Yui Kawamoto #65, will try her luck at LPGA.

> > > > I think it's 50/50 whether Shibuno can hold Top 15. But I don't think both of them can do it on JLPGA, so it doesn't really matter.

> > > >

> > > > Shibuno has 1 JLPGA win that will roll-out of last 12 months period while Suzuki has 3 wins that will do the same (4 wins in 13-24 month stage will fall off). Unless both were to co-dominate the first half of 2020 JLPGA season, one of them likely has to watch on TV from home (unfortunately).

> > >

> > > I've to disagree. Shibuno has zero chance to stay inside Top-15 if she plays JLPGA.

> > > Shibuno doesn't just compete with Ai for Top-15; she's competing with Jessica Korda #16, So Yeaon Ryu #17, Lizette Salas #18 and Amy Yang #20. All of them play LPGA.

> > All of them played on the LPGA last two years and earned a number of points that have them below Shibuno. If you all think it's zero, I'll but a few grand down with each of you at 1,000,000 to 1 odds.

> >

> > Will Shibuno stay in in the Top 15 two years from now when the Women's British Open win rolls off? Extremely unlikely on JLPGA. But that's not the question. We are only looking at until next June.

>

> Not a million dollars; but I'll send you a check of $500.00 if Shibuno is inside Top-15 by Olympics deadline.

> Provided if Shibuno plays JLPGA until then.

One thing Shibuno has going against her is that her events played is relatively low. Not shockingly low but towards the lower end. I was originally thinking since she didn't have much of a 2018 season, there wasn't anything to replace. But the impact of the Women's British Open win could be diluted a bit if she plays more in the first half of next year (both impacting Top 15 and vs. Suzuki).

 

That being said, I think I had looked at Suzuki's results earlier this year, and estimated where she would be if she had a major win. Basically, it seems like 3 or 4 JLPGA wins per year + one major would get you right around the #15 mark. Can Shibuno win 3x per year on JLPGA? She did this year, but that means very little as to whether she can do it again.

 

Note, I am not saying I think Shibuno is the 15th best golfer in the world. Instead it's simply that she has one win with a ton of points in the calculation right now, and is this enough to keep her above a certain level for the next 8 months. It seems like the fact that the best players generally play on the LPGA is only tangentially related. If a win in Japan is worth the same as a 2nd/3rd/4th (or whatever it is) in a normal LPGA tournament then what's the difference? I think this is basically on display when you look at the LPGA non-winners like HJK, Ciganda, J.Korda, SYR, and Salas vs. Shibuno. They are all within a week's (or so) results of each other.

[Titleist_PT23]

> @AWinfortheAges said:

> > @18majors said:

> > > @agolf1 said:

> > > > @18majors said:

> > > > > @agolf1 said:

> > > > > > @18majors said:

> > > > > > Hinako Shibuno dropped to #15 while Ai Suzuki jumped to #19 on the new Rolex ranking.

> > > > > > Most likely both Hinako and Ai will be out of Top-15; they'll need to fight for the one Olympics spot.

> > > > > > Meanwhile, Yui Kawamoto #65, will try her luck at LPGA.

> > > > > I think it's 50/50 whether Shibuno can hold Top 15. But I don't think both of them can do it on JLPGA, so it doesn't really matter.

> > > > >

> > > > > Shibuno has 1 JLPGA win that will roll-out of last 12 months period while Suzuki has 3 wins that will do the same (4 wins in 13-24 month stage will fall off). Unless both were to co-dominate the first half of 2020 JLPGA season, one of them likely has to watch on TV from home (unfortunately).

> > > >

> > > > I've to disagree. Shibuno has zero chance to stay inside Top-15 if she plays JLPGA.

> > > > Shibuno doesn't just compete with Ai for Top-15; she's competing with Jessica Korda #16, So Yeaon Ryu #17, Lizette Salas #18 and Amy Yang #20. All of them play LPGA.

> > > All of them played on the LPGA last two years and earned a number of points that have them below Shibuno. If you all think it's zero, I'll but a few grand down with each of you at 1,000,000 to 1 odds.

> > >

> > > Will Shibuno stay in in the Top 15 two years from now when the Women's British Open win rolls off? Extremely unlikely on JLPGA. But that's not the question. We are only looking at until next June.

> >

> > Not a million dollars; but I'll send you a check of $500.00 if Shibuno is inside Top-15 by Olympics deadline.

> >

> >

>

> Carlota and Hyo Joo Kim are 14 and 13 in the Rolex Rankings respectively, neither has a victory on the LPGA tour in her current calculation. It's possible that Shibuno and Suzuki win 4 times between now and the end of June. They will need high finishes in the 3 Majors and other LPGA events they participate in to obtain that top 15.

I guess this is where I disagree (although maybe I am wrong). Shibuno only needs to replace the average points in the non-major events she has earned so far. She did virtually all of that outside of the LPGA tour.

 

And yes, I get that Carlota and HJK can get a lot of points from finishing 2nd some random week. But they also have points from all of those prior finishes in their rankings already and they are a whopping 1 and 2 spots ahead (and were behind at times too). Said another way, they need to keep getting all of the Top 2 (or whatever) finishes next year to not fall in the rankings. It's not like the LPGA players can only add points to their current rankings.

[Seamus_McDuff]

Her 100 points from the British will only be worth about 60 by the cut-off.

[Titleist_PT23]

> @Seamus_McDuff said:

> Her 100 points from the British will only be worth about 60 by the cut-off.

 

OK, I thought it was first and second year, but I see that is not right.

 

Here are Ai Suzuki's JLPGA wins by year.

2014 = 1

2015 = 0

2016 = 2

2017 = 2

2018 = 4

2019 =5 + LPGA

 

Highest ranking is 19th now and 20th in mid-2108 and mid-2019. Who knows but it doesn't seem likely she would ever crack top-15 just playing the JLPGA.

 

However, since mid-2017 (multiple winner over the last two seasons on JLPGA), she has between roughly 150 - 240 points. However, she hasn't been above 200 points consistently. So let's say Shibuno plays JLPGA next year and is a multiple winner again (obviously need to be early in the year). Can you say that she would have roughly 210 - 260 points (150-200 + 60)? Divide by say 50 events and you are at 4.2 - 5.2 average or good for 11th - 18th spot based on the current rankings?

 

Of course, she could nosedive and never win again. Or she could go win 5 tournaments in the first half of the 2020 JLPGA season. But unless I am still misunderstanding something (which may be true), this seems like it's (staying top 15) a lot closer than a hail marry. If people believe Ai is an outlier and Shibuno just isn't that good (lucky last 12 months) than I get it. I don't really have an opinion on Shibuno, I just saw she won 3x on JLPGA this year and a major, so I'm assuming she can play and will play decent next year.

[ChronicSlicer]

> @agolf1 said:

 

> Highest ranking is 19th now and 20th in mid-2108 and mid-2019. Who knows but it doesn't seem likely she would ever crack top-15 just playing the JLPGA.

>

 

Hmm, I said the same thing two days ago.

"It's pretty sad Ai won 6 times this year and just cracked the top 20 Rolex Rankings. Not a fan of how the system works. If Ai was on the LPGA where would she be sitting after her 6th win this year?

Basically if you ever wanna see your world ranking climb into single digits you have no choice but to play on the LPGA".

[Titleist_PT23]

Here is another Shibuno question/calculation. She currently has 209 points. Can we say that roughly 109 of these are from the JLPGA tour in 2019 (she had virtually no ranking/points at the end of 2018)?

 

I see that the decay function is a bit more complicated and depends on the exact timing. But what points would have have at June 2020 if her JLPGA play is the same in 2020 as the last 12 months (pro-rata through the year)? I.e

a) 109 points July 2019 - June 2020,

b) ~20-30 points July 2018 - June 2019 (she had 50 points on 1 July 2019 and 72 points on 29 July 2019 but these will be worth less than 1/2 that a year later)

c) 60 points WBO.

 

Again, a) is a huge assumption and I'm not sure on b), but that would be 189-199 or ~3.8 - 4.0 (50 events), which is around 21st.

 

Edit: If you say Shibuno's WBO is worth like 5 JLPGA events, this also roughly lines up with where Ai has topped out --- around 20th when she had a 4 win and 5 win + LPGA season.

[ChronicSlicer]

> @agolf1 said:

>

> That being said, I think I had looked at Suzuki's results earlier this year, and estimated where she would be if she had a major win. Basically, it seems like 3 or 4 JLPGA wins per year + one major would get you right around the #15 mark.

 

Hannah Green is a great example of how fast 1 win and 1 major win can increase one's world ranking via the LPGA compared to JLPGA wins and a major.

Prior to the KPMG Hannah was ranked 114 after her win she went to 29, after her win at Cambia she hit 18th.

 

Ai was ranked 31st at the beginning of 2019, 5 wins on JLPGA and 1 win LPGA, she now sits at 19th. That's insanely sad how little value a JLPGA win gets ya.

 

 

[Titleist_PT23]

@18majors OK, I think I may have spoken too soon. I am now seeing that this may be more challenging, and I'm glad that I don't have any even money bets on the books!

 

I guess Shibuno both a) loses some of the WBO impact and b) still has to deal with a donut period (2H 2018) the calculation.

[AWinfortheAges]

> @agolf1 said:

> > @Seamus_McDuff said:

> > Her 100 points from the British will only be worth about 60 by the cut-off.

>

> OK, I thought it was first and second year, but I see that is not right.

>

> Here are Ai Suzuki's JLPGA wins by year.

> 2014 = 1

> 2015 = 0

> 2016 = 2

> 2017 = 2

> 2018 = 4

> 2019 =5 + LPGA

>

> Highest ranking is 19th now and 20th in mid-2108 and mid-2019. Who knows but it doesn't seem likely she would ever crack top-15 just playing the JLPGA.

>

> However, since mid-2017 (multiple winner over the last two seasons on JLPGA), she has between roughly 150 - 240 points. However, she hasn't been above 200 points consistently. So let's say Shibuno plays JLPGA next year and is a multiple winner again (obviously need to be early in the year). Can you say that she would have roughly 210 - 260 points (150-200 + 60)? Divide by say 50 events and you are at 4.2 - 5.2 average or good for 11th - 18th spot based on the current rankings?

>

> Of course, she could nosedive and never win again. Or she could go win 5 tournaments in the first half of the 2020 JLPGA season. But unless I am still misunderstanding something (which may be true), this seems like it's (staying top 15) a lot closer than a hail marry. If people believe Ai is an outlier and Shibuno just isn't that good (lucky last 12 months) than I get it. I don't really have an opinion on Shibuno, I just saw she won 3x on JLPGA this year and a major, so I'm assuming she can play and will play decent next year.

 

*It may be worth noting that injury stopped Ai's ascent in 2018. She also had 3, second place finishes and 3, third place finishes to go along with those 4 wins before she shut it down for 2 months starting in June of that 2018. She was on a tear the first half of 2018.

 

I may be forgetting something, but my picks for the 2 biggest "what if's" since I started following women's golf religiously are; How high could Ha Na Jang have gone in the rankiings had she not left the LPGA in 2017? and What would have been the results of the second half of Ai Suzuki's 2018 season had she not been injured? *

[Titleist_PT23]

> @ChronicSlicer said:

> > @agolf1 said:

> >

> > That being said, I think I had looked at Suzuki's results earlier this year, and estimated where she would be if she had a major win. Basically, it seems like 3 or 4 JLPGA wins per year + one major would get you right around the #15 mark.

>

> Hannah Green is a great example of how fast 1 win and 1 major win can increase one's world ranking via the LPGA compared to JLPGA wins and a major.

> Prior to the KPMG Hannah was ranked 114 after her win she went to 29, after her win at Cambia she hit 18th.

>

> Ai was ranked 31st at the beginning of 2019, 5 wins on JLPGA and 1 win LPGA, she now sits at 19th. That's insanely sad how little value a JLPGA win gets ya.

Ai also had a big 2018, so some of the results in 2019 is treading water. Shibuno is probably somewhat similar to Hannah if you say 3 JLPGA = 1 LPGA (although I'd guess Portland was a haircut vs. your normal LPGA event) + a major for each.

 

I'm not sure if the weightings (across tours) are right or wrong. I haven't watched enough, but I have a hard time saying Ai would have better results on LPGA than any of the multiple LPGA winners this year or some of the top players with a 1 win and many high finishes (i.e. Minjee, etc). The main or best tour should award players the most points. I just don't know if it's disproportionate or about right.

[Seamus_McDuff]

My point was you can’t say,

 

“Shibuno only needs to replace the average points in the non-major events she has earned so far.”

 

She also needs to make up the points she loses the further she gets from the British win. I think she’ll lose close to two points per week from now until the cut-off.

[Titleist_PT23]

> @AWinfortheAges said:

> *It may be worth noting that injury stopped Ai's ascent in 2018. She also had 3, second place finishes and 3, third place finishes to go along with those 4 wins before she shut it down for 2 months starting in June of that 2018. She was on a tear the first half of 2018.

>

> I may be forgetting something, but my picks for the 2 biggest "what if's" since I started following women's golf religiously are; How high could Ha Na Jang have gone in the rankiings had she not left the LPGA in 2017? and What would have been the results of the second half of Ai Suzuki's 2018 season had she not been injured? *

Both good questions.

 

Both Ai and Shibuno have to play very well next year just to replicate what they've done on the JLPGA this year - 3-win and 5-win seasons are not easy for anyone. I guess the race between these two for the second Olympic spot could be tighter than I thought. Will be interesting to see how it goes.

[Titleist_PT23]

> @Seamus_McDuff said:

> My point was you can’t say,

>

> “Shibuno only needs to replace the average points in the non-major events she has earned so far.”

>

> She also needs to make up the points she loses the further she gets from the British win. I think she’ll lose close to two points per week from now until the cut-off.

Yes, thanks. I get it now. I incorrectly thought it was last 12 months and months 13-24 weightings.

[xxio]

There in lies how different cultures measure success.

 

For a lot of Japanese success is measured by how you make an impact in your community and country. Thus the choice of staying home, trying to get better, and supporting sponsors. If it were not for the Olympic qualifying/ the chance to represent her country, I don't think there would even be a choice.

 

A lot of the rest of the world measures success differently. Nothing against playing with the best and making more money but it is not the end all and be all in some cultures.

 

I think if she does become a clear no1 in Japan maybe the challenge will be there.

[Argonne69]

How do you explain Ai Miyazato, Nasa, and the other Japanese players on the LPGA? Clearly something drove them to the tour, and their countrymen and countrywomen appear to be wholey behind them. Same with Hideki on the men's side.

 

[Soloman1]

How do you explain it? People are different. LOL

 

How do you explain that no Americans are on the JLPGA tour?

[xxio]

> @Soloman1 said:

> How do you explain it? People are different. LOL

>

> How do you explain that no Americans are on the JLPGA tour?

 

The Japanese even moreso. Ai was a mega star for years before she came over. Nasa only after a few. Hard to explain. You have to interact with Japanese on a friendly/close basis to realize that even for the alphas in any field, fortune in not usually the number 1 priority.

 

I travel to Japan 1x a year. I have a lot of Japanese friends. They have been offered jobs all over the world. They turn them down because they find it very difficult to live in a culture very different from theirs.

 

Times are changing in the smaller world though.

[Soloman1]

I understand it well, having lived in Japan for over 25 years...

 

Ai chan is from Okinawa and not mainland Japan, so she was exposed to more English and US culture because of the overwhelming presence of US military bases and people in Okinawa. There are great differences within Japan. Kansai (western Japan) and Okinawa people are very different than people in eastern Japan. They're more outgoing and individual in dress, actions, confidence and personality.