2020 Charles Schwab Challenge

[freowho]

McIlroy side bends too early so he is starting to stand up through impact. He is playing with a clubface that closes quicker through impact than it has too. He is extraordinarily talented but relies on timing more than some. Jones, Nelson. Snead, Nicklaus and Mickey Wright either timed their side bend so it maxed out through impact or maintained their side bend for longer or kept their leading arm higher than their trailing arm through impact so the clubface wasn't turning over so quickly. Furyk kept the clubface extremely square through impact but at the expense of distance. I specifically say "through" rather than "at" impact because it relies on less timing. Things like ball position, setup and tempo don't matter as much when you have good technique.

Jordan Speith has never had great technique and is a confidence player who can be a putting savant when he is feeling good. He wasn't flipping it around as much this weekend and I thought his swing looked better. But if I was Jordan I would do a Faldo reconstruction. He is rich enough and young enough.

 

 

[the bishop]

This kind of reminds of when Cartman succinctly deduced that Kyle was the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks.

[chigolfer1]

There's got to be more than just confidence to explain this. Whether people think Jordan's swing is ugly or not, what has happened to cause this precipitous of a decline?

SG (tee to green)

2015: 1.583 (4th)

2016: .811 (25)

2017: 1.646 (2)

2018: .863 (23)

2019: -.403 (157)

2020: -.224 (155)

[smashdn]

The answer is he was demoralized by DJ in the playoff at the Northern Trust. His spirit was literally removed from his body that day. A quickening at the hands of DJ a la Duncan MacLeod.

[grm24]

Sean Foley and Justin Rose are no longer together. More change for Justin Rose, who has split with swing coach Sean Foley

[capking]

He looked great with his old sticks, Would not be shocked to see him win this weekend.

[freowho]

His technique was better in 2015, wasn't as flippy, but even in 2015 his technique wasn't world class. He was confident and was one of the best putters I've ever seen. His technique deteriorated, although it looked a bit better on the weekend, but what I mainly see is the lack of belief. When someone has a fragile technique the confidence is also fragile.

I don't know if this is the case with Jordan but this shallowing the club fad that is going around at the moment is destroying so many golfers. Shallowing the club is relative to the body, not relative to a camera angle. Snead, Nicklaus and early Tiger look really steep with a down the line camera angle but relative to their body, which is turning, they are shallowing the club really well.

Jordan's first move in 2015 was to turn towards the target. The last couple of years he started to drop the arms first. By the time he gets to the ball all he can do is flip. Rory starts the downswing the same way. He is more flexible than Jordan so doesn't suffer as badly but still loses his short right arm at impact.

Mechanically I think Rory's would be a short journey to more wins. Like DJ and Koepka simply deciding to play with a fade instead of a draw. Jordan's journey would would be longer like a Faldo reconstruction.

Faldo and Norman were in almost identical spots at one time in their career. Talented with a reverse C swing. Faldo reconstructed his swing to keep the face squarer through impact. Played bad for a few years, lost some distance but ultimately won 6 majors. Norman didn't change and remained one of the longest hitters on tour but would often hit a block when he was staring at a big win and finished with 2 majors.

[BB28403]

?

[RareSight]

Not true. The results/facts show Rory’s been one of the MOST “consistent” players on Tour, not just over his career, and particularly in the last 2 years.

And no one could answer my prior question “Rory’s won 4 times in his last 25 events, who’s better closing out wins recently?”

[RareSight]

I appreciate that’s your opinion on his swing, but many of the world’s leading players & coaches marvel at it. Rory is talked about as one of the greatest players Tee to Green in history… and that’s down to his *swing*.

The facts show, few if any are more consistent than Rory. And that includes Furyk, so perhaps Furyk should swing more like Rory for greater consistency & results. 

Don’t forget Rory’s success depends heavily on the ‘consistency’ of his great swing, not his putter. Again the objective facts prove this.

[bscinstnct]

 

Well, this part of my post is indisputable,

 

“Hasn’t won a major in over 5 years. 

Keep in mind that besides Jack and Tiger, Rory is the only other player in history to win 4 majors by age 25. 

Hes 31 now and still has 4 majors.”

 

But, I see your point. This article summarizes the concern that, in the context of an elite player, Rory is not consistent on Sunday. To his credit, he got back in a good zone right after this piece. Either way, I certainly hope he breaks out of his major slump.

Rory McIlroy has become a bad pressure player (There we've said it)

“By my count, Rory has played in seven final pairings (or threesomes) in the past year, and he hasn’t captured even one of those titles.”

 

“Tell me if this sounds familiar: Heading into the final round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions on Sunday, Rory McIlroy stood in second place, just three shots off the lead. He proceeded to shoot 72, which was the worst score of any player in the top 20 (of a 33-man field). Instead of winning, he slipped down the leader board, finishing in a disappointing tie for fourth.

Blur the specifics a little, and you could be talking about any number of recent events. The one that stands out, of course, is the 2018 Masters, when he shot a painful Sunday 74 in the final group to cede the tournament to Patrick Reed. But the list goes on: the Tour Championship, in which he stumbled in Tiger Woods’ shadow, again in the final group, to post a dismal 74; the BMW PGA Championship, where he shot an unimpressive 70 in the final group to finish second despite starting the day as co-leader; the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, playing (repeat after me) in the final group, and once more blundering his way around the course to fall to sixth and hand Justin Thomas a relatively stress-free victory.

Those are the most egregious examples, but they aren’t the only ones—there are plenty of other tournaments, from the Open Championship to the Dubai Desert Classic to the Dell Technologies Championship, where a good-to-great performance would have put him near victory, and where he could only muster the pedestrian. One of his best Sundays of the year came at the BMW Championship in September … unfortunately, that was because rain canceled play for the day. When the final round resumed on Monday, he stumbled in the last group, failing to erase a slim one-shot deficit as victory eluded him again. By my count, Rory has played in seven final pairings (or threesomes) in the past year, and he hasn’t captured even one of those titles.”

 

[RareSight]

But I too could cherry pick for any golfer what you’ve just done with Rory. I’m not sure why you’re getting hung up with Rory being in last group, what matters *more* is having a good chance to win an event regardless of # group. So if that means he’s in the last group or in 2nd or 3rd last group 1, 2, 3 shots behind means ‘he’s in the mix’ to win… and based on this more rational criteria the fact remains that Rory has closed out more wins in recent years than virtually everyone, not to mention being one of the most consistently great players. Results don’t lie.

[bscinstnct]

 

Cheers, RS. I hear ya, it depends how you look at things.

 

You see Rory as, relative to other players, being an outstanding performer.

 

But I saw Rory 1.0, decimating golf courses, making fields shake with fear, and winning Majors at a pace to rival the greatest players in the game.

 

So, of course many want to see a run like that again and get frustrated when he has a great chance to win and shoots a 41 on the front 9 on Sunday. And, per the article, he is known to do this more often than fans and even he would care to.

[RareSight]

Fyi, Rory’s performing poorly again at Heritage 1st round, so is this because of his grouping &/or pressure? Or is it just what I originally said, “he’s simply rusty” after having 3 months off.

If you look more closely, since Rory’s Covid19 return, he’s really only played 1 good round (-7), the rest have been average to poor compared to his usual v.high standards. So again, more evidence he’s just rusty as opposed to “groupings/pressure”.

All this cherry picking reminds me of the hysteria around Rory having “issues’ on Rd1 or Rd2 a few years back, that was also proved cherry picking hysteria.

[RareSight]

Based on this post & position, I understand better now where you're coming from - and for the amazing talent Rory has, I get it, it can be frustrating. But, it's also just harder to win on tour now, everything's evolved and the margin's of winning are smaller & tighter than ever.

[Hawkeye77]

Name one and identify the tourneys.

[freowho]

Greg Norman was world number 1 for 331 weeks and considered one of the best drivers in the history of golf yet rarely closed out majors because of a swing fault he never addressed. Adam Scott was voted as having the best swing on tour for many years but also struggles to win at the highest level because he was flipping it around. There are lots of snake oil salesman and yes men who don't understand the practical elements of a good swing trying to get their claws into good players for a percentage of the winnings. George Gankas talking about Adam Scott is interesting and Adam Scott has spent the past few years trying to fix his faults. Winning Majors is on another level to the standard tour event.

I'm not trying to hate Rory. I love watching him play and he seems like one of the good people on tour. And he does have a beautiful looking swing but he's just not able to slide the ball into play when he needs to. It's either pure or trouble. I also like a good "stats" argument but sometimes you can see all you need to with your eyes.

[smashdn]

Adam Scott has not had a consistent putter.

[RareSight]

Winning is what matters. And here’s some of the leading players Win/Closing Rates.

 

1. Tiger Woods > PGA Tour Win Rate = 22.71%

2. Rory Mcilroy > PGA Tour Win Rate = 10.34%

3. Justin Thomas > PGA Tour Win Rate = 8.27%

4. Phil Mickelson > PGA Tour Win Rate = 7.58%

5. Dustin Johnson > PGA Tour Win Rate = 7.58%

6. Brooks Koepka > PGA Tour Win Rate = 5.38%

7. Jon Rahm > PGA Tour Win Rate = 3.75%

 

*(As of Mar 2020, standard PGA Tour events, WGC tournaments and major championships)

 

Fyi, outside of Tiger, McIlroy leads finishing in Top 10 exactly 50% of the time he tees it up, next closet is Rahm at 45%.

 

Results don’t lie. People & Perceptions do.

[RareSight]

No, that’s your opinion again, and most of the best PGA Tour Players & Coaches know it takes more than a good Driver to win. You can hit poor drives & yet still recover with good Approach shots, and/or good Chipping and/or good Putting. 

Jack & other Greats talk about the game being 95% between the ears. Adam Scott is renowned to mentally fall apart, and look at Spieth 3 years ago & now, Spieth’s turned into a mental case. Golf is far more a mental game than anything else.

Winning is what matters. And here’s some of the leading players Win/Closing Rates.

 

1. Tiger Woods > PGA Tour Win Rate = 22.71%

2. Rory Mcilroy > PGA Tour Win Rate = 10.34%

3. Justin Thomas > PGA Tour Win Rate = 8.27%

4. Phil Mickelson > PGA Tour Win Rate = 7.58%

5. Dustin Johnson > PGA Tour Win Rate = 7.58%

6. Brooks Koepka > PGA Tour Win Rate = 5.38%

7. Jon Rahm > PGA Tour Win Rate = 3.75%

 

*(As of Mar 2020, standard PGA Tour events, WGC tournaments and major championships)

 

Fyi, outside of Tiger, McIlroy leads finishing in Top 10 exactly 50% of the time he tees it up, next closet is Rahm at 45%.

 

Again, Results don’t lie. People & Perceptions do.

[hondaloyal]

Kinda like the colour of Fowlers new irons. They're different. I like different. They look a lot more copper/bronze than they do in this picture.

[freowho]

So if Rory has a really high top 10 "rate" then his wins should be higher shouldn't they? Doesn't this mean that his general ability is extremely high but his ability to "close" is low? It would also suggest Rahm is poor at closing tournaments. You said win/closing rates but they are really just win rates. Closing would be relative to his standing in the field with 18 holes to go, 9 holes to go, 6 holes to go etc. It would be interesting if there was some data showing strokes gained relative to the field, relative to the finish of a tournament. I've seen this data in other sports where they say team A which is 9 points ahead with one quarter left has a an X percentage chance of winning and so they are better or worse at closing out games than other teams.

[freowho]

I've just done some basic maths on majors.

Nicklaus won 18 from 73 top 10's ( 24.6%) and finished runner up to Trevino 4 times.

Trevino won 6 from 22 top 10's ( 27%) and never finished runner up to Nicklaus. Could be argued Nicklaus is a far superior golfer in general but Trevino was a better closer under pressure.

Watson won 8 of 46 top 10's (17%). Poor closer under pressure???

McIlroy has won 4 of 20 top 10's ( 20%). But none of his last 10!

Mickelson has won 5 from 38 top 10's (13%). Exceptionally talented golfer but poor closer? Definitely does not have a solid golf swing for pressure situations.

[RareSight]

So by your opinion & made up criteria, Jon Rahm has an even worse “swing flaw under pressure” than Rory, as Rahm’s Win Rate / Top 10’s is worse than Rory’s.

 

Care to explain that one?

 

Ps: You still haven’t answered the following questions / realities previously put forward:

• You never explained away the fact the ‘games greats’ like Jack have stated golf is 95% mental?

• You never explained away the fact of Jordan’s mental decline or his swing in only 3 years?

• You never explained away the fact even with poor Driving you can recover with good Approach, Chipping & Putting?

 

When you have a moment, thanks.

[Darth Putter]

If you want a "Is Rory a good closer?" thread start one.

This thread is done,

To paraphrase Bill Belichick, we're on to Harbour Town.