-100 to start a PGA tour event for an amateur, could they win

[CasualLie]

As long as you can get it off the tee decently, not push slice every 3rd hole, and as long as you can control your pace on the greens, you will be fine.  EAL shot 83 I think at Harding.  I shot 84 at Harding right after the PGA and lost two balls in the trees!  It was a nightmare in the rough, but not like you cannot play golf.  

 

But rest assured, if you swing anything like your weekender so called 15 capper, no -100 is not enough.  Just playing by the rules will cost you 10 shots a day!

 

 

[Obee]

1 minute ago, cardoustie said:

I have shot 79 at Muirfield Village from the tips, with two rancid doubles, wedges into ponds.  Not a tourney week of course

 

I've also played in a web.com event for the first two rounds and went around in 73-74 (from one set of blocks up from the tour guys) ... Brendan Steele was in my group

 

Now I have more tourney experience than most to be fair, Not Obee level but a lot of national and provincial and college stuff from back in the day

 

I think I could match JT with some 85's avg over 4 days

 

@Obee, what do you think the real number is?  I say a 4 cap needs 14-16 a round.  As a 2.6 at my second club, I am an 8 off the tips .. 7500 yards 75.6/140

 

The new system really jumps your cap upwards on higher rated tough layouts

 

The "real" number is highly variable (but still within a definable "range") and depends on conditions, of course. But we already know what the delta is at a U.S. Open set-up, so we can reverse engineer from there. You, personally, Cardoustie, crush the field at a U.S. Open getting 25 shots a round. Easier Tour stops would play out a bit differently, because you would score lower, but so would the pros. Suffice to say that 25 shots a round as a starter for this thread is just ... silly.

[PapaJohick]

13 minutes ago, Obee said:

We already know the answer to these questions, but (some) people just don't want to learn. The data is out there, but people insist on making the gap larger than it is. Why? I have no idea. Truly. I wish someone could explain this to me...

 

The U.S. Open things a few years back with Romo, Timberlake, Roethlisberger, Jordan showed us just how hard the set ups are. They are hard. They are not impossible. Learn, people. Learn.

 

Take Romo and Timberlake -- who I've actually played with in a tournament -- and combine their scores at their U.S. Open adventures and average them and you have as close as you're gonna get to a "club scratch." Romo shot 84 at Torrey and Timberlake shot 88 at Bethpage. Hell, Roethlisberger shot 81(!!!) at Bethpage as a sandbagging 6 or 7 or whatever he said he was at the time (he's been as low as a 0.4, evidently).

 

Regarding Timberlake: He is a legit 2 to 4 index golfer (currently 4.3). His lowest index in his entire life is 1.0, and he's nowhere near a tournament-level mid-am. He is a "club low-capper" through and through. The very definition of a guy who can shoot 74 one day and 85 the next. If he shot 88 at a U.S. Open set-up, anyone you know at your club who is a 2, 3, or 4 could shoot that too, +/- 5 strokes or so.

 

Timberlake shot 88 at Bethpage. The winning score was 276. 88 minus the 25 strokes per day he is getting is 63. 63 x 4 rounds 252. He wins the U.S. Open by 24 flippin' shots, getting 100 shots, people. Do some of you people have a bowl of magical, mystical "Flakes of Delusion" in the morning before you jump into these threads? I mean, seriously.

 

 

I mean ya, maybe we just want to put them so high on the pedestal? 

 

Honestly I just try to think about what I shoot on my courses here in Charleston (although when I play kiawah i tend to be in the mid 80s to low 90s), and figured I would shot almost 10 higher or so on a legit tour set up? Maybe I am wrong on that haha. Maybe I wouldn't lose as many shots as I think since I am an above avg putter/wedge player. I just would be hitting lots of long irons/hybrid/wood for second shots since I'm probably in the lower third of tour distance? maybe lower 10% haha

[cardoustie]

As another reference

 

My plus 3 pal that has played in two Canadian Opens and two US Senior Opens

 

Most recently went around in 71-71 at the Canadian Open in tour conditions (MC)

 

 

[Obee]

15 hours ago, iBanesto said:

A good scratch golfer shoots 20 to 40 over depending on the course. The pro shoots let's say 20 to 30 under.

 

They made up "only" a maximum of 70 shots!

 

 

Dude.

 

Do you actually play golf? Have you ever played with a scratch golfer in your life?

 

20 to 40 over? A scratch golfer? At a normal Tour event? 

 

Heck, we have direct evidence that a 2 to 4 capper, in his very first try, on a U.S. Open set-up, shot 16 over. 40-over? You think a scratch golfer is going to shoot up to 40-over par. Forty??? Where do you get these numbers? Why do people post things like this? Are you just a troll?

 

Just won't let this stuff go anymore. LOL

[Ironman_32]

1 hour ago, PapaJohick said:

 

 

I mean ya, maybe we just want to put them so high on the pedestal? 

 

Honestly I just try to think about what I shoot on my courses here in Charleston (although when I play kiawah i tend to be in the mid 80s to low 90s), and figured I would shot almost 10 higher or so on a legit tour set up? Maybe I am wrong on that haha. Maybe I wouldn't lose as many shots as I think since I am an above avg putter/wedge player. I just would be hitting lots of long irons/hybrid/wood for second shots since I'm probably in the lower third of tour distance? maybe lower 10% haha

I'd say even account for turning some par 4s in "5s"...it might be  different mindset from I need to get there in two, or I can take three to get there. 

[chigolfer1]

16 hours ago, physasst said:

Kisner recently was asked in an interview, how many strokes he would have to give a 12 handicap to make it fair over a 4 day tournament. 

He didn't hesitate. He said 68. 

Interviewer asked, how did he get to 68?

Kisner replied, "12 x 4 is 48, I'm a +5, so add 20 more. 68". 

 

 

Saw that too.  Serious question since I don't follow this that closely.  Does the handicap factor in that the slope on a PGA course is probably ridiculous compared to the slope on just a normal non-PGA event 7,400 yard course?

[Hawkeye77]

16 hours ago, physasst said:

Kisner recently was asked in an interview, how many strokes he would have to give a 12 handicap to make it fair over a 4 day tournament. 

He didn't hesitate. He said 68. 

Interviewer asked, how did he get to 68?

Kisner replied, "12 x 4 is 48, I'm a +5, so add 20 more. 68". 

 

 

LOL, he's ruthless and he wants your money!  

 

Even on a 12's home course (no chance on a tournament setup), so many factors would likely suggest those aren't enough strokes.  You ultra-low cappers and scratch golfers, IMO, would likely not suffer as much variance as a 12 might, again for lots of different reasons, over 4 days playing Kisner, but IMO I'd want a few more if I was the 12 he was betting.

Edited September 9, 2020 by Hawkeye77

[MtlJeff]

I honestly thought i misunderstood this thread....100 shots? 25 shot each round???

 

Contrary to many posts i have read here over the years, not every Amateur rolls his ball in the rough or cheats his way through every round. Every club i have been at has club championships for A players, AA players, B and C players etc....And they have to play by the rules. Any semi serious golfer has played golf by the rules before. 

 

Obviously tournament pressure is different, but i mean i saw a 10 handicap shoot 74 yesterday in the final round of our B flight CC in front of hundreds of fans. Not everyone just becomes a shivering mess and barfs all over themselves because people are watching. 

 

100 shots is a massive amount for some say <5 index. if you just shoot four 90s the pro has to shoot 4 consecutive 65's. If you have a good day and shoot 84 it's essentially over unless you get mauled by a bobcat the following day and have to play one-armed. 

 

If we're talking a major-caliber layout, yes it's harder for you, but no pro is shooting 65's every day either. 

[SwooshLT]

15 hours ago, golfandfishing said:

In a 72 hole event only 2 players have reached 30 under par and it was a par 73 course. 

 

Some guy named Dustin JUST won the northern trust event at 30 under par ......on par 71 course to boot

[deadsolid...shank]

39 minutes ago, MtlJeff said:

I honestly thought i misunderstood this thread....100 shots? 25 shot each round???

 

Contrary to many posts i have read here over the years, not every Amateur rolls his ball in the rough or cheats his way through every round. Every club i have been at has club championships for A players, AA players, B and C players etc....And they have to play by the rules. Any semi serious golfer has played golf by the rules before. 

 

Obviously tournament pressure is different, but i mean i saw a 10 handicap shoot 74 yesterday in the final round of our B flight CC in front of hundreds of fans. Not everyone just becomes a shivering mess and barfs all over themselves because people are watching. 

 

100 shots is a massive amount for some say <5 index. if you just shoot four 90s the pro has to shoot 4 consecutive 65's. If you have a good day and shoot 84 it's essentially over unless you get mauled by a bobcat the following day and have to play one-armed. 

 

If we're talking a major-caliber layout, yes it's harder for you, but no pro is shooting 65's every day either. 

You have to take those bobcats seriously!?

[bladehunter]

Good grief. Where do we come up with these things ?  -100 ?   A guy in a wheelchair who can putt might win.  

[DavePelz4]

16 hours ago, wildcatden said:

It all depends. Is the amateur using a ProV1x or a Vice ball?

 

Definitely a Kirkland Signature so it's easily identifiable among all the ProV1's.

[SNIPERBBB]

Im down to about a 2 on a course with 6-10 yard fairways...i think i can do this if i stay out of the water and keep the driver on the course.

[Hawkeye77]

 

So scratch - no doubt, bogey golfer, no way over a four day PGA Tour event. IMO.

[golfandfishing]

2 hours ago, SwooshLT said:

 

Some guy named Dustin JUST won the northern trust event at 30 under par ......on par 71 course to boot

Oh hey, sorry for missing that one. I stand corrected, it has happened THREE times. Ever. Jeesh. 

[MtlJeff]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye77 said:

 

So scratch - no doubt, bogey golfer, no way over a four day PGA Tour event. IMO.

 

I agree with that for sure. A 15 index or something is going to really struggle to keep it under 95 on a tour layout in a tournament and that is likely being generous. So right there you know that is not enough to win

 

But a low index it's way too many shots. I can tell you that our club record was shot by a pro and if you take the 4 worst tournament rounds i've ever shot there, i'd still beat a pro who shot 4 course records by 15 shots under this scenario

[SwooshLT]

29 minutes ago, golfandfishing said:

Oh hey, sorry for missing that one. I stand corrected, it has happened THREE times. Ever. Jeesh. 

 Just bustin yer chops ! All good

[PapaJohick]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye77 said:

 

LOL, he's ruthless and he wants your money!  

 

Even on a 12's home course (no chance on a tournament setup), so many factors would likely suggest those aren't enough strokes.  You ultra-low cappers and scratch golfers, IMO, would likely not suffer as much variance as a 12 might, again for lots of different reasons, over 4 days playing Kisner, but IMO I'd want a few more if I was the 12 he was betting.

I don't know....

 

Give me 68 (or i guess 66 as a 10) and I'd be ok with the challenge as long as it wasn't for some crazy amount that would break me haha.

 

 

[CCTxGolf]

I don’t think a 10 handicap or greater is going to break 95 more than once on a tour setup over 4 days.

 

as some give pros to much credit some give weekend hacks to much credit

[HappyGilmoresBoots]

The way I'm interpreting the question posed here is similar to how I get the gist of this thread and this thread...and there are dozens of other threads on the tiny little details here on breaking 100, then 90, then 80, then lowering your handicap to single digits and even down to 0.

 

There's a certain intangible quality, a je ne sais quoi that separates Tour pros from club pros, from ranked/registered ams, to single-digit handicap ams, to weekend warrior/church scramble bombers.  Given the orders of magnitude of talent (and hard work) that separate each level, I think that any random "golf guy" you know, being given 100 strokes on a PGA Tour event, is still not going to win...same as any random 4 handicap is going to lose to anyone on the PGA tour.

Anyway, I was happy to match drives and shoot par on a hole where my buddy (registered PGA club pro) missed a chip and shot bogey.  I'll get off my soapbox now.

Edited September 9, 2020 by HappyGilmoresBoots

[Shilgy]

6 hours ago, Obee said:

Dude.

 

Do you actually play golf? Have you ever played with a scratch golfer in your life?

 

20 to 40 over? A scratch golfer? At a normal Tour event? 

 

Heck, we have direct evidence that a 2 to 4 capper, in his very first try, on a U.S. Open set-up, shot 16 over. 40-over? You think a scratch golfer is going to shoot up to 40-over par. Forty??? Where do you get these numbers? Why do people post things like this? Are you just a troll?

 

Just won't let this stuff go anymore. LOL

Psst, hey Obee. The entire post seems to be saying the scratch would shoot 20-40 over FOR THE FOUR ROUNDS. That is why the pro would be 20-30 under. A scratch shooting 20+ over with the course rating(in tournament condition) of 77 or so is expected.

[Jason280]

10 hours ago, Obee said:

What's your index?

I haven't submitted since I got back into playing (I took around 5-6 years off), and have only played a total of two rounds, but would put it at a solid 8-8.5 right now.  My lowest was a 6, but that was 8-10 yrs ago.

 

My biggest concern would be rough off the fairways, and OB on some of the tighter holes.  My driver right now can be a little erratic, but iron play is solid...hence hitting 2 iron on a lot of holes.  

 

Like I mentioned, it really depends on the course itself. 

[tw_focus]

A PREPARED amateur could win easily. Give a 10 handicapper a week to prepare and a pro caddie to work with and they could break 90 on any PGA Tour course, even the US Open. The biggest learning curve is the greens, most amateurs have never seen anything like them. But after a few hours they will get the hang of them, after a few days they will be making putts. It doesn't take that long to adjust.

[LifeStory]

Nope

[Ferguson]

Three scenarios for a PGA Event. 

 

Which person will finish higher on the leader board after 72 holes?          

 

1. A physically fit semi-pro bowler, with a 12 HC,  that works in foundry and plays golf 6 times per month is given 22 shots per day
2. A full time scientist, with a 10 HC, who prefers to play golf “the natural way”; and plays 8 times per month is given 18 shots per day
3. A club player, with a 2 HC, that rakes the short ones, drinks 8 beers per round, calls the cart girl the daughter he never had and plays 16 times per month is given 4 shots per day

 

[smashdn]

15 hours ago, MtlJeff said:

 

I agree with that for sure. A 15 index or something is going to really struggle to keep it under 95 on a tour layout in a tournament and that is likely being generous. So right there you know that is not enough to win

 

I don't mean to brag but there are times I struggle to keep it under 95 on easy layouts.  It's why I am a 15.

 

It really is a magical thing to behold.  I am a little jealous of the people I play with regularly.  I can go from "holy crap this guy can play" to "I am not sure he knows which end of the club to hit the ball with" in a matter of a few holes.  My good shots are pretty decent but my bad shots can be very bad.  And if you can't string 4-5 good shots in a row you just can't score.  The big numbers go on the scorecard but they are rarely offset by little numbers.  A stroke lost is gone forever in my game.

 

So, that Tahoe open deal that is stableford scoring, can we draw any conclusions from that?  Or the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, aren't there some am scores posted?

[MtlJeff]

1 hour ago, Ferguson said:

Three scenarios for a PGA Event. 

 

Which person will finish higher on the leader board after 72 holes?          

 

1. A physically fit semi-pro bowler, with a 12 HC,  that works in foundry and plays golf 6 times per month is given 22 shots per day
2. A full time scientist, with a 10 HC, who prefers to play golf “the natural way”; and plays 8 times per month is given 18 shots per day
3. A club player, with a 2 HC, that rakes the short ones, drinks 8 beers per round, calls the cart girl the daughter he never had and plays 16 times per month is given 4 shots per day

 

 

#3 would have no chance. I don't believe they allow you to drink beer during events so that would throw him off. Plus he'd miss a few short putts probably having never practiced them. He very likely would lose 16 shots on one of the days alone (his worst day of the tourney that would easily be the difference)

 

#2 i still wouldn't bet on. the difference between 18 and 22 shots is a lot, a scientist is possibly an introvert who wouldn't like the pressure. Plus i've never met a super fit scientist, so he probably doesn't hit the ball that far and is a guy who plays 6200yd tracks. 

 

#1 A foundry working, Semi-pro bowler is the best chance. This is a guy who probably loves crowds and yells "boom baby" after putting it on the green. He is probably very fit given his foundry job, and almost certainly his body will glisten of oils and probably have a mustache (i imagine in my head this is the bowling scene). So i'd think he can get it out there 250+...At 22 shots a day, that's like starting at -88 right? So if he shoots 90 every day he finishes at -16. That'll win you some tournaments....its possible. Wouldn't bet on it but possible

 

 

Edited September 10, 2020 by MtlJeff

[r0scoe]

1 hour ago, Ferguson said:

Three scenarios for a PGA Event. 

 

Which person will finish higher on the leader board after 72 holes?          

 

1. A physically fit semi-pro bowler, with a 12 HC,  that works in foundry and plays golf 6 times per month is given 22 shots per day
2. A full time scientist, with a 10 HC, who prefers to play golf “the natural way”; and plays 8 times per month is given 18 shots per day
3. A club player, with a 2 HC, that rakes the short ones, drinks 8 beers per round, calls the cart girl the daughter he never had and plays 16 times per month is given 4 shots per day

What about 4. The out of shape tech support guy, with about a 15 handicap, that loves candy and plays 3 days a week?

 

[Hawkeye77]

1 hour ago, Ferguson said:

Three scenarios for a PGA Event. 

 

Which person will finish higher on the leader board after 72 holes?          

 

1. A physically fit semi-pro bowler, with a 12 HC,  that works in foundry and plays golf 6 times per month is given 22 shots per day
2. A full time scientist, with a 10 HC, who prefers to play golf “the natural way”; and plays 8 times per month is given 18 shots per day
3. A club player, with a 2 HC, that rakes the short ones, drinks 8 beers per round, calls the cart girl the daughter he never had and plays 16 times per month is given 4 shots per day

 

 

Foundry and bowling? Having The Deer Hunter flashbacks!