Playing to your handicap EVERY ROUND

[cardoustie]

I have a close friend who says he shoots 74, 75 or 76 every single Thursday in his league.   2.4 index.

 

Courses are rated 73.2 / 133 and 72.1 / 130 

 

Aren't you supposed to play to your cap every 4 or 5 rounds?  I know this was the general measuring stick when it was 10 scores of 20.

 

BTW, he shot 90-90 in the club C's .. which to me is a sign

 

Are there odds for this?  Similar to the Pope of Slope talking about exceptional rounds?

[Titleist_PT23]

Statistically, it should be about 1 out of 4 rounds (at least when using 10 of 20 scores).  This is true even if the player has a very low standard deviation of scores.  However, if the standard deviation of scores is very low, optically it may seem like he's always around his handicap.  The issue is 73 is still missing it if 72.49 is your course handicap.  It just won't seem as obvious as the guy who varies by 3-4 shots per round.

 

If someone truly averaged 76 with a couple/few shots standard deviation, the chance of firing a 90 is far less than 1%.  Of course, stats are only so useful but the probability estimate would be very low.

[llewol007]

Happened to me the other day shoot 73 and come back with a solid 82. So interesting how this game is. Surprised if he is able to do it and more surprised if his handicap doesnt head downwards. 

[HatsForBats]

Sounds like a vanity cap. With 8 of 20 rounds being used for index you would expect that generally 4 would be below the current index and 4 above. In other words you would expect to have a differential below your index about 4 out of 20 rounds or 1 in 5 rounds.

 

Maybe there is something 'funky' about the way they are playing the Thursday league? I have one group that counts OB as 1 stroke (hit from where you estimate the ball went OB or was lost) and many of them do not use the most likely score when being given a putt. The easiest way to get someone cured of a vanity cap is to get them into some money games but maybe take it easy on them money wise while letting them figure it out.

 

To be fair I one day shot my best round ever at 1 under par on a course with generous sized fairways and greens. The next round was a crowd pleasing 90 at a course that was tighter and had a lot of OB. If you are wild off the tee the spread can be vast. I know the guys I was playing with probably thought my index was a vanity index as that was my first time playing with them and of course I talked up my previous round before hand.

 

If he is shooting 74,75,76 'every' Thursday for those ratings/slopes then he would probably need to be consistent off the tee.

[jvincent]

1 hour ago, cardoustie said:

I have a close friend who says he shoots 74, 75 or 76 every single Thursday in his league.   2.4 index.

 

Courses are rated 73.2 / 133 and 72.1 / 130 

 

Aren't you supposed to play to your cap every 4 or 5 rounds?  I know this was the general measuring stick when it was 10 scores of 20.

 

BTW, he shot 90-90 in the club C's .. which to me is a sign

 

Are there odds for this?  Similar to the Pope of Slope talking about exceptional rounds?

Highly suspicious.

 

Lower index should in general be more consistent, but to be that consistent is very unlikely statistically.

 

As it turns out I was curious about my scoring std deviation last week and I put my last 40 round into excel. I'm playing at a 5 index and my scoring average was just under 80 with a std dev of 3. As it turns out the -1 sdev is right on my course handicap and most of my rounds were in the +1 to -1 range with a few outliers. Slope and rating are 131/72.0.

 

[cardoustie]

I'm running 1.9 and can shoot 70-83 .. this year

 

Club C at home course ... 78-83-76  ... 74/144/7,000 .. 4th place

Club C at second club .. 80-81-80 ... 73.7/132/7,250+ . .5th place

 

Last year range was 68-86 in events.  Most of my rounds are 72-78 if I don't implode twice in a round

 

I don't buy that level of consistency unless picking up 5 footers and mully's

 

Apparently his club is RIFE with boys making 42 Stable points every week, over and over, their committee and pro's need to get some brass b_lls IMO.  Seems the year long stableford winner gets 3k in prizing

 

[jvincent]

That's crazy.

 

I just took a look at our club champs scoring record. He's a +3.2 and has scores ranging from 64 to 81 and has more than a few 76-77s in there.

 

Don't ever pick your friend as your partner in a net competition.

Edited October 2, 2020 by jvincent

[nsxguy]

2 hours ago, cardoustie said:

I have a close friend who says he shoots 74, 75 or 76 every single Thursday in his league.   2.4 index.

 

Courses are rated 73.2 / 133 and 72.1 / 130 

 

Aren't you supposed to play to your cap every 4 or 5 rounds?  I know this was the general measuring stick when it was 10 scores of 20.

 

BTW, he shot 90-90 in the club C's .. which to me is a sign

 

Are there odds for this?  Similar to the Pope of Slope talking about exceptional rounds?

 

Yeah, that IS a "sign".

 

Methinks there's shenanigans afoot. 🙃

[HatsForBats]

32 minutes ago, cardoustie said:

Apparently his club is RIFE with boys making 42 Stable points every week, over and over, their committee and pro's need to get some brass b_lls IMO.  Seems the year long stableford winner gets 3k in prizing

 

 

I don't play Stableford that often but are you sure they are using standard scoring? I have played it with a few different groups that played a 'stableford' format and the amount of points you get for a particular score type has not always been consistent between the groups.

[DavePelz4]

We have a guy in our group that shot between 88-92 in probably 95% of his rounds for 2 years. Once in a great while he'd shoot an 85 or 95 but he was beyond consistent. Difficulty of course or length never made a difference.

[chippa13]

That is a bogey golfer. I'm betting he wasn't consistent as much as he was consistently inconsistent. He is probably the guy who scrapes a birdie a round, maybe two, but then follows that up with a double, then a couple of pars tossed in with another couple of doubles, otherwise, mostly bogeys.

[RainShadow]

I bounce between 7.5 and 8.5 and usually score between 78-84. 

Very Consistent in that range. Great round = 74, really bad would be over 88.

 

[MtlJeff]

No one shoots the same scores every time LOL....that is immediately "suspicious" (re: obviously a lie)

 

This year i am a 1.4 right now, and have a spread of 72 to 87

 

 

[sailfishchris]

Jeez! I'd love to know his "secret"!  I'm hovering at 5 and I feel and play like a 20 (no disrespect) after some rounds

[Dr. Block]

I'll take the vanity guy over the bagger.  I see too many 12 handicaps who'd shoot in the mid to high seventies without their maintenance holes towards the end of the round lol

 

Edited October 2, 2020 by Dr. Block

[MtlJeff]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Block said:

I'll take the vanity guy over the bagger.  I see too many 12 handicaps who'd shoot in the mid to high seventies without their maintenance holes towards the end of the round lol

 

Oh definitely. Vanity caps hurt themselves whereas sandbaggers hurt others. 

 

I have a friend who i am quite sure couldn't break 90 under tournament conditions but is an 8 index right now or thereabouts. It bothers some people, it doesn't really bother me...Those are the guys you want to play for money

[Dr. Block]

4 minutes ago, MtlJeff said:

 

Oh definitely. Vanity caps hurt themselves whereas sandbaggers hurt others. 

 

I have a friend who i am quite sure couldn't break 90 under tournament conditions but is an 8 index right now or thereabouts. It bothers some people, it doesn't really bother me...Those are the guys you want to play for money

Agreed.  The only time it gets me is when they're smug about it.  You don't want to align them with reality, but sometimes you still do haha.

 

I feel for the big deviation guys as I am definitely one of them. I have stretches where I can't find the earth off the tee.  Makes me feel like a vanity sometimes even though I keep an honest handicap.   It would be very easy for me to bag up 4 or 5 shots on my index, but I can't bring myself to do it.

 

If you are going to be a lower handicap, it really, really pays to be a steady ball-striker, not a guy who scrambles, relies on his short game, and is frequently very wild with the driver. 

[bazinky]

Sounds like a former member at my club. His official handicap would always be in the +2 to +4 range. His posted rounds were never above par. Every year in the club championship he would show up and shoot in the 90's, with the exception of the year he threw up a zip code while playing with a couple of legit scratches. He left the club shortly therafter ...

[Hawkeye77]

Sitting on 7.8, scores at the same course have ranged from 71 (even, not under, lol) to 86, in 2020. 75-78 most common.  

 

Rating is just over 67 and slope is 113 so that explains the rounds in the 70s if any eyebrows are raising. 😉

 

Probably shoot solid 90s at Cardy's course!

Edited October 3, 2020 by Hawkeye77

[naval2006]

11 hours ago, Hawkeye77 said:

Sitting on 7.8, scores at the same course have ranged from 71 (even, not under, lol) to 86, in 2020. 75-78 most common.  

 

Rating is just over 67 and slope is 113 so that explains the rounds in the 70s if any eyebrows are raising. 😉

 

Probably shoot solid 90s at Cardy's course!

Pretty much the same here. The same kind of course. I think it rates 69 point something and slope is slow. My course and my type of game go hand in hand. Been shooting 79-83 for the past two months in tournament rounds. But it’s been more to do with not making big mistakes, knowing where to miss and just hitting 6 out of ten. 

 

Haven’t played much outside since the Covid days but I now I go with that game to the neighbouring course and an 82 becomes an 85 on the spot.   

 

And the other thing is I shoot more or less those scores on a glorious spring day when they win with a 76 or on a tough windy afternoon when I have a chance in my handicap bracket. 

 

Honestly I feel I’m stuck. Like I shot 73 net and I go home feeling it’s not that bad. But can’t shoot lower with that mentality. 

[Moonlightgrm]

My index is 2.8 and I don’t play to my handicap as often as I would like. I have 63 full rounds in the book this year. My scores have ranged from 69 to 83, with a scoring average of 76.4. My home course ratings are 73.1 (130) from the tees I play most frequently. 
 

When I think of the players I play golf with most frequently, most probably average at least a shot or two above their handicap.

[Sean2]

I would think if someone played to their HI every round, their HI would keep dropping. 

[Shilgy]

5 hours ago, Sean2 said:

I would think if someone played to their HI every round, their HI would keep dropping. 

Well kind of....if, as you say, you played “ to your handicap” every round....saying 74 on a course rated at 72.0 113 slope for instance....you would be a 2.0 index. When the USGA says you will only play to your handicap 0% of the time they mean “to or better than” your handicap.

Most players will average about three strokes over their handicap index. So the 2.0 in my example above would average about 77 strokes per round. Note that is in relation to the course rating played, not to par.***

 

***Sean, from previous threads I know you knew most of that but it bears repeating.

[kcstock]

Personal experience reflects that I hit my handicap every 4-8 rounds.  but I suppose it depends on the frequency that you play the course. and of course you need to account for any league rules. I played in a Mens League that allowed you to roll the ball in fairway. Because we were playing for points I took advantage of these local rules and would consistently shoot lower.  I did NOT enter these scores as they dont reflect the rules of golf.  thats my approach.

[SecondandGoal]

Just went back and looked at my recent score history. My last 20 18-hole scores are over the course of the last 6 weeks, and include a number of combined 9-hole scores. 

Current index is a 9.4. Scores range from 79-93. The 93 is a bit of an aberration, it was a combined round from a couple days when I was fighting through kidney stones 🙂

 

Out of the 20 scores, all but 3 were on my home course (72.0/128). 10 of 20 are between 84 and 86, 5 are equal or better than my course handicap. 

 

I'd say my numbers are very typical. Even accepting the fact that a better player is going to score more consistently, the numbers posted by the OP seem tremendously fishy to me.

[Shilgy]

The funny thing is the op did not clarify a couple things...one is the league on his “home” course or elsewhere? If elsewhere that course could just suit him better. Two, at the club championship mentioned how was the weather? Three(did I say just a couple things) maybe the guy just plays better on Thursday’s.  All we have for his scoring record is some Thursday’s and one club championship. Fourth, who the heck tanks his club championship in favor of a league?

It does seem odd that one day a week he always appears to play to his handicap. If he is baggin’ he is probably still losing at league. Few leagues will see you winning by shooting net par or one under.

[nsxguy]

15 minutes ago, Shilgy said:

The funny thing is the op did not clarify a couple things...one is the league on his “home” course or elsewhere? If elsewhere that course could just suit him better. Two, at the club championship mentioned how was the weather? Three(did I say just a couple things) maybe the guy just plays better on Thursday’s.  All we have for his scoring record is some Thursday’s and one club championship. Fourth, who the heck tanks his club championship in favor of a league?

It does seem odd that one day a week he always appears to play to his handicap. If he is baggin’ he is probably still losing at league. Few leagues will see you winning by shooting net par or one under.

 

Cards lost today, didn't they ? 🙃

[Shilgy]

1 minute ago, nsxguy said:

 

Cards lost today, didn't they ? 🙃

Wot? Sorry, the joke went right over my 🤔

[nsxguy]

9 minutes ago, Shilgy said:

Wot? Sorry, the joke went right over my 🤔

 

Run on post, no paragraphs, 4 things instead of a "couple", tanks CC, etc.

 

I figure yer a bit vexed 'cause the Cardinals lost,,,,,,,, 😎 I used to get that way when the Giants lost but it's become so routine now,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 😪

[Shilgy]

7 minutes ago, nsxguy said:

 

Run on post, no paragraphs, 4 things instead of a "couple", tanks CC, etc.

 

I figure yer a bit vexed 'cause the Cardinals lost,,,,,,,, 😎 I used to get that way when the Giants lost but it's become so routine now,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 😪

Aaahhh, got it. Funny thing is we’re not Cardinals fans so my mind went to baseball...and those Cardinals lost a few days ago. We are both from Minnesota so are still Vikings and Twins fans. Vikes finally managed a win and ‘this past week the aTwins do what they always seem to do in the postseason. Oh well, we will always have ‘87 & ‘91.