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2021 LPGA Drive On Championship (Mar 04 - 07)


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5 hours ago, 18majors said:

 

 

I don't know what kind of math do you use, this is totally wrong.

 

If she had 12 GIR's, she missed 6 greens and needed 6 one-putt greens to stay bogey free.  If she had 28 putts, she would've used 6 of the 8 one-putt greens to stay even.

 

That means the best she could do is -2, unless she'd two-putt birdies on other par 5 holes.

Yep, another way to put it would be if she hit EVERY green in exactly(meaning par fives in three shots) regulation and had 28 putts she would “only” be 8 under. Missing more greens does not lower that score.

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12 hours ago, 18majors said:

 

 

I don't know what kind of math do you use, this is totally wrong.

 

If she had 12 GIR's, she missed 6 greens and needed 6 one-putt greens to stay bogey free.  If she had 28 putts, she would've used 6 of the 8 one-putt greens to stay even.

 

That means the best she could do is -2, unless she'd two-putt birdies on other par 5 holes.

 

 

You're correct.    I added the potential score too quickly and forgot to include the extra 4 strokes on the par 5's.   That's what happens when I rush to finish writing my post while I have a meeting to attend!  

 

So adding the four missing strokes on the Par 5's, 28 putts with 12 GIRs 14 FIRs, and 7 Up/Dns (i.e. 1 additional stroke to get on the green) would yield a score of 61.     My point is that 28 putts is statistically a very good round putting-wise.    Which was why your post did not make much sense when you were critical of Brooke's 28 putts.  of course if I included the 2-three putts that 61 becomes a 63 (ceteris parabus) .    

 

Another way of making the point about 28 putts is that if Brooke made 28 putts today (Friday), her 69 becomes a 66).    

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Re the sports betting discussion earlier in this thread, the key is to not spend any time on it. Research the systems heavily and then be done it with, other than sporadic tinkering. Subjectivity is absolutely worthless. Bettors who have no chance in the long run are the ones watching games and making decisions based on what they watched. I didn't know one successful sports bettor in Las Vegas who wasn't totally devoted to numbers. Everything has to be plug and play. Volume and an edge. Neither one is any good without the other. When we first became aware of fantasy circa fall 1989 we laughed like heck at them because they were utilizing absolutely the wrong approach...desperately following every play of every game and sweating out hundreds of variables instead of a meaningful handful. And basically nothing has changed in 30+ years. The only guys I know who switched to fantasy did it only when there was a sucker league in which they owned tremendous advantage. The value is still in sports betting because of the amazing opportunity to jockey positions toward middles and scalps, i.e decreasing or eliminating the juice as you go along.

 

Of course, that requires anticipation toward which way the line will move and seizing accordingly, often playing multiple markets and props in conjunction with each other toward distributional advantage that is not otherwise obvious. In other words, winning if your side covers but winning huge if the game falls on let's say 3 or 4. Successful bettors spend a heck of a lot more time pursuing lines than figuring out who they are going to wager on. Wagering at its best is like journalism except without the who and the why...it is when, where, how.

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This tournament is vastly more preferable in early March than the prior date in 2015 and 2016. That was so early and without adequate daylight hours it was a smaller field and only one wave. Not to mention the cold and muck. Plus the signature holes especially the Augusta versions actually look colorful in March, although several weeks later would be better still. In 2015 and 2016 I remember standing alongside the 12th green (tribute to Augusta 13) and thinking that hole doesn't work at all because it was so bland at greenside. Now it's markedly improved even if the hole is more like old 13 at Augusta and not the current 13. They'd have to grow and pinch the trees on both sides plus add slope and tons of pine straw to approximate current 13.

 

Very nice job with the changes to 11, the tribute to Augusta 12. It was blatant in 2015 and 2016 that the tee box was too far to the right and also too elevated in relation to the green. They have fixed both aspects noticeably, along with moving the water closer, as mentioned during the telecast.

 

The glaring exception is the tribute to the Road Hole. It seems such a waste to be playing that hole seemingly 50 yards shorter than prior. The tee box they used in 2015 and 2016 was strenuous and legitimately forced a decision on the line, even if there wasn't a hotel. However, I remember two things that may have played a role in the change: There was a house being built left of that tee box at the time. Maybe that owner has clout and wanted the tees moved. More likely the tee was moved up due to pace of play. In the prior years the field was having trouble on that hole and it bled over to the later holes. I remember three groups bunched up all week on the tee box of the par 3 15th. I heard a marshall say something had to be done the following year. Turned out there was no following year, as Coates bailed out early. But they remembered and adjusted.

 

Lydia's swing looks almost normal. That is semi-shocking. She really blew this tournament in 2016 by fanning right off the tee on 17 toward the bunker, then clunking around several shots. It was actually a miraculous rescue to save double bogey. 

 

I would have liked to have seen Lexi's career with even a semblance of a normal follow through. The LPGA announcers are too kind to her on that. Guys like Brandel would not be, if covering every week.

 

Nelly's putting was not as tentative on Thursday as last weekend. I suspect that will be the trend, that she thinks about it more deeper in the event, especially if holding as opposed to pursuing. 

 

The problem with that tribute to St. Andrews 1 is the entirety near the green is not flat enough and that's compounded by the high camera angle from behind the green. It almost looks more Oakmont than St. Andrews.

 

It doesn't show up well on television but some holes on this course are like Hilton Head with the overhanging trees pinching the fairways and covered with moss. The course starts out that way on #1 and #2 and you think it will be that way throughout. They probably could have turned at least one hole into a Hilton Head tribute without much trouble, although I can't think of a specific hole. Then the trees and moss go away until late front nine, and then don't show up as a factor again until the final few holes, especially left on 17.

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2 hours ago, Awsi Dooger said:

This tournament is vastly more preferable in early March than the prior date in 2015 and 2016. That was so early and without adequate daylight hours it was a smaller field and only one wave. Not to mention the cold and muck. Plus the signature holes especially the Augusta versions actually look colorful in March, although several weeks later would be better still. In 2015 and 2016 I remember standing alongside the 12th green (tribute to Augusta 13) and thinking that hole doesn't work at all because it was so bland at greenside. Now it's markedly improved even if the hole is more like old 13 at Augusta and not the current 13. They'd have to grow and pinch the trees on both sides plus add slope and tons of pine straw to approximate current 13.

 

Very nice job with the changes to 11, the tribute to Augusta 12. It was blatant in 2015 and 2016 that the tee box was too far to the right and also too elevated in relation to the green. They have fixed both aspects noticeably, along with moving the water closer, as mentioned during the telecast.

 

The glaring exception is the tribute to the Road Hole. It seems such a waste to be playing that hole seemingly 50 yards shorter than prior. The tee box they used in 2015 and 2016 was strenuous and legitimately forced a decision on the line, even if there wasn't a hotel. However, I remember two things that may have played a role in the change: There was a house being built left of that tee box at the time. Maybe that owner has clout and wanted the tees moved. More likely the tee was moved up due to pace of play. In the prior years the field was having trouble on that hole and it bled over to the later holes. I remember three groups bunched up all week on the tee box of the par 3 15th. I heard a marshall say something had to be done the following year. Turned out there was no following year, as Coates bailed out early. But they remembered and adjusted.

 

Lydia's swing looks almost normal. That is semi-shocking. She really blew this tournament in 2016 by fanning right off the tee on 17 toward the bunker, then clunking around several shots. It was actually a miraculous rescue to save double bogey. 

 

I would have liked to have seen Lexi's career with even a semblance of a normal follow through. The LPGA announcers are too kind to her on that. Guys like Brandel would not be, if covering every week.

 

Nelly's putting was not as tentative on Thursday as last weekend. I suspect that will be the trend, that she thinks about it more deeper in the event, especially if holding as opposed to pursuing. 

 

The problem with that tribute to St. Andrews 1 is the entirety near the green is not flat enough and that's compounded by the high camera angle from behind the green. It almost looks more Oakmont than St. Andrews.

 

It doesn't show up well on television but some holes on this course are like Hilton Head with the overhanging trees pinching the fairways and covered with moss. The course starts out that way on #1 and #2 and you think it will be that way throughout. They probably could have turned at least one hole into a Hilton Head tribute without much trouble, although I can't think of a specific hole. Then the trees and moss go away until late front nine, and then don't show up as a factor again until the final few holes, especially left on 17.

That’s a really interesting perspective. Thank you

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12 hours ago, Argonne69 said:

Wow. Was Carlota playing the same course as everyone else? Impressive to say the least. 'Still assume she'll fade on the weekend. 

 

Austin and Jennifer having good weeks.

 

Not quite what I expected from Nelly, but she's in a very good position. 

 

Patty definitely taking adv of her opportunities early in the season. 

 

I expected better from Lydia. Hanging in there, though. 

 

A rare missed cut by Jin Young. Probably means a win next time out. Lol. 

 

Nice to see Dame Davies make the cut. With all the attention on Annika last week, it's nice to see Laura get a little airtime. 

 

 

When I saw Jin Young missed the cut my first thought was she must have been playing with a broken arm or two. Proof she's human I guess. 

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Hmmm. With lift, clean, and place being utilized, you'd think the scores would be lower. Sure there's wind, but it's not crazy. 

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Definitely not your typical leaderboard going into the final round. Realistically there are only five players in the hunt. Well, unless those at -4 and -5 go crazy low, which is very unlikely. 

 

Austin is a proven winner. Jennifer has a history of stumbling on Sunday, so we'll see if she can get over that hump. 

 

Albane, Jenny, and Patty have their work cut out for themselves, but they're playing solid, and maybe the two at the top get caught up in a match play situation. 

 

Nice bounce back for Danielle after last week's effort. 

 

Carlota being Carlota. 

 

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47 minutes ago, Argonne69 said:

 

 

Carlota being Carlota. 

 

Usually it's a Sunday though, maybe she got 63 or 64 brewing for tomorrow. I won't be betting the house that's for sure. 

 

Be cool if Patty racked up back to back top 5's, last week she blew up a bit on Sunday.

 

Albane looking to secure that first top 5 finish or top 10. See how she holds up as well.

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2 hours ago, Argonne69 said:

 

Austin is a proven winner. Jennifer has a history of stumbling on Sunday, so we'll see if she can get over that hump. 

 

I know Jennifer fell apart on the last holes of the 2017 NCAAs, but she came back to win 2AAs in 2018 and she really came through on back 9 to win at Augusta in 2019.  I don’t think she’s been in enough LPGA tournaments yet to have reputation of stumbling?

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22 hours ago, Golf Dino said:

 

 

You're correct.    I added the potential score too quickly and forgot to include the extra 4 strokes on the par 5's.   That's what happens when I rush to finish writing my post while I have a meeting to attend!  

 

So adding the four missing strokes on the Par 5's, 28 putts with 12 GIRs 14 FIRs, and 7 Up/Dns (i.e. 1 additional stroke to get on the green) would yield a score of 61.     My point is that 28 putts is statistically a very good round putting-wise.    Which was why your post did not make much sense when you were critical of Brooke's 28 putts.  of course if I included the 2-three putts that 61 becomes a 63 (ceteris parabus) .    

 

Another way of making the point about 28 putts is that if Brooke made 28 putts today (Friday), her 69 becomes a 66).    

I don’t get your math. 
1) if she hit 12 greens how does she have 7 up and downs? Unless you are counting par 5’s where she was near the green in 2? Typically 12 greens and 28 putts would equal a score of -2 I would thInk. Even if that math included hitting all four par fives in two that would would only be -6 on the day.

What am I missing?

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3 hours ago, BadgerLin said:

I know Jennifer fell apart on the last holes of the 2017 NCAAs, but she came back to win 2AAs in 2018 and she really came through on back 9 to win at Augusta in 2019.  I don’t think she’s been in enough LPGA tournaments yet to have reputation of stumbling?

 

Last week she shot her worst round of the week on Sunday. 

 

She made the cut in 10 events last year. She shot under par on Sunday in only 3 of them. Her final round scoring average is roughly two strokes higher than the earlier rounds. 

 

Unless they're playing in trying conditions, the winner rarely shoots even par or worse. 

 

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10 hours ago, golfgirlrobin said:

Really missing Karen Stupples in the booth.  She’s the only color announcer doing the LPGA who’s willing to criticize anyone.  Judy, once in awhile, but you can tell she’d really rather not.  Bad shots are bad shots, it ought to be ok to say so.  Morgan’s just too close to the players to say anything of consequence.  
 


 

 

I agree. First I noticed that Morgan sounds a lot like Paige (but calmer). Then I thought she was making a lot of fluffy, inconsequential remarks that reminded me exactly of how players talk who have been coached to do media. Not good. That's because she IS a player! Then she made some perceptive remarks - but yeah, she is one of those girls, so there is no way she will ever be critical of them.

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