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Cantley gives brilliant answer about recent European Ryder Cup “dominance”


josh21120
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So, I've read a few gin books. Let's see if I get it right. If you play enough gin hands, a 1- or 2-percent difference in skill translates to almost an assured win over many, many, many hands of gin.

"But you could have a big difference between somebody, maybe a 60- to 40-percent skill level difference, and gin is still chancy enough to where you could play 10 hands and lose six or seven of the hands than someone that's much worse than you skill-wise.

"Really there's only two – these matches are only played every two years, and golf is very chancy. 
 

Think the talking heads were disappointed. But it won’t shut down all their endless talk of superior team work by the Europeans, haha…

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I used to have these friendly wagers with a golf buddy.  We'd bet on sports and I let him choose first every single time.  Didn't matter the spread, who was playing etc.   We always played even money screw the odds and spreads.   Some examples were Tiger vs Rory head to head, Yankess vs Tigers in the playoffs, NFL playoff games, etc.  I just let him choose the team/person he wanted.  He picked wrong 11 times in a row.   Stuff happens.  How does Brady go undefeated the whole season and the playoffs to then lose to Eli and the Giants that magical year?  Stuff happens.  Stuff sure seems to happen a lot at the Ryder cup the last 25 year or so.

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36 minutes ago, mosesgolf said:

I used to have these friendly wagers with a golf buddy.  We'd bet on sports and I let him choose first every single time.  Didn't matter the spread, who was playing etc.   We always played even money screw the odds and spreads.   Some examples were Tiger vs Rory head to head, Yankess vs Tigers in the playoffs, NFL playoff games, etc.  I just let him choose the team/person he wanted.  He picked wrong 11 times in a row.   Stuff happens.  How does Brady go undefeated the whole season and the playoffs to then lose to Eli and the Giants that magical year?  Stuff happens.  Stuff sure seems to happen a lot at the Ryder cup the last 25 year or so.

 

Yankees vs. Tigers?  That's not a real rivalry.  Yankees vs. Red Sox.  Now THAT'S a real rivalry.

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Perhaps he should have gone for the Bombay Sapphire instead. 

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1 hour ago, josh21120 said:

So, I've read a few gin books. Let's see if I get it right. If you play enough gin hands, a 1- or 2-percent difference in skill translates to almost an assured win over many, many, many hands of gin.

"But you could have a big difference between somebody, maybe a 60- to 40-percent skill level difference, and gin is still chancy enough to where you could play 10 hands and lose six or seven of the hands than someone that's much worse than you skill-wise.

"Really there's only two – these matches are only played every two years, and golf is very chancy. 
 

 

So the Europeans have won 9 of the last 12 Ryder Cups, are they 1-2% better or 40-60% luckier? 

 

 

 

Edited by KennyP
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Cantlay may be right from stat point of view but when you look at the matches that are decided on 18 for the US in Solheim and Ryder Cups the US does not win their share.  That is more than randomness. Again and again the US relies on players based on how they play stroke play events.  Europe relies on guys who can win MATCH PLAY matches.  They are different things - just ask MONTY and POULTER.

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2 hours ago, josh21120 said:

So, I've read a few gin books. Let's see if I get it right. If you play enough gin hands, a 1- or 2-percent difference in skill translates to almost an assured win over many, many, many hands of gin.

"But you could have a big difference between somebody, maybe a 60- to 40-percent skill level difference, and gin is still chancy enough to where you could play 10 hands and lose six or seven of the hands than someone that's much worse than you skill-wise.

"Really there's only two – these matches are only played every two years, and golf is very chancy. 
 

Think the talking heads were disappointed. But it won’t shut down all their endless talk of superior team work by the Europeans, haha…

 

So if the US plays many, many matches against the Euro's, they might finally win one?

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30 minutes ago, munichop said:

Cantlay may be right from stat point of view but when you look at the matches that are decided on 18 for the US in Solheim and Ryder Cups the US does not win their share.  That is more than randomness. Again and again the US relies on players based on how they play stroke play events.  Europe relies on guys who can win MATCH PLAY matches.  They are different things - just ask MONTY and POULTER.

Actually, both teams are picked the same way - based on their respective stroke play rankings. It would be interesting to pick a team based only on match play performance, but that doesn’t come into play. Maybe as tiebreakers on picks. Anyway, It always comes down to putting, right? I think the Europeans have been smart to play up the perception of being the underdogs at every cup. It’s a great motivator, and pressure reliever.

Glad to have a younger US squad with less “scar tissue” this time!

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Saying we've lost a lot recently basically due to luck/randomness is a brilliant answer?  Seems sorta lame to me.  That's one long stretch of bad luck over a not small sample size at this point.  And, I guess if we win this year then it was primarily because the luck was on our side?

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3 hours ago, josh21120 said:

So, I've read a few gin books. Let's see if I get it right. If you play enough gin hands, a 1- or 2-percent difference in skill translates to almost an assured win over many, many, many hands of gin.

"But you could have a big difference between somebody, maybe a 60- to 40-percent skill level difference, and gin is still chancy enough to where you could play 10 hands and lose six or seven of the hands than someone that's much worse than you skill-wise.

"Really there's only two – these matches are only played every two years, and golf is very chancy. 
 

Think the talking heads were disappointed. But it won’t shut down all their endless talk of superior team work by the Europeans, haha…

Do the Euros win because of superior team work or do they have superior team work because they won?  

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33 minutes ago, chigolfer1 said:

Saying we've lost a lot recently basically due to luck/randomness is a brilliant answer?  Seems sorta lame to me.  That's one long stretch of bad luck over a not small sample size at this point.  And, I guess if we win this year then it was primarily because the luck was on our side?

Well, it you go back far enough, the US is 26-14-2 overall, maybe the “long view” Cantley refers to, haha…  In the end, Individual players have to make, or not make, putts. Not teams. I think the Euros just successfully exploit their underdog status in recent events. Relieves the pressure of expectations that the US is saddled with.

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Perhaps he's been drinking what he's been reading.....the-book-of-gin.jpg

Hope he cleaned his tub.

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I think the Euro's just are more chill about, they have more fun with it. They probably are somewhat more use to it too. Look at World Cup, look at the rivalries in their Football, they get the play for your people thing. They're more baptized in that than USA's stars. We have "pursuit of happiness" in our founding documents, which really can mean, 'do your thing, for you and you only'. How many Pro sport athletes stateside really give a crap about the city they play for? A few, maybe. Culturally the advantage is theirs, no?

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He's wrong. Gin introduces a randomness that golf doesn't because cards are shuffled and dealt.

Randomness isn't the same as variance.

Factors like wind and weather and other small variable issues will certainly play out, but it's more akin to chess than it is to gin.

Gin is cards and cards are random. Chess is definitely not random, although it is variable due to styles of play and openings and who gets white or black, etc.

So although he gave some great recent interviews, this isn't one of them.

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17 hours ago, josh21120 said:

So, I've read a few gin books. Let's see if I get it right. If you play enough gin hands, a 1- or 2-percent difference in skill translates to almost an assured win over many, many, many hands of gin.

"But you could have a big difference between somebody, maybe a 60- to 40-percent skill level difference, and gin is still chancy enough to where you could play 10 hands and lose six or seven of the hands than someone that's much worse than you skill-wise.

"Really there's only two – these matches are only played every two years, and golf is very chancy. 
 

Think the talking heads were disappointed. But it won’t shut down all their endless talk of superior team work by the Europeans, haha…

 

Arrogant? Check. 

 

Over-confident in his match play ability in a RC environment?  Check. 

 

Passive-aggressive hostility towards the according-to-the-experts obviously inferior Team Euro?  Check. 

 

He'll fit in nicely in the US team room.  

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