Cantley gives brilliant answer about recent European Ryder Cup “dominance”

[dlygrisse]

This isn’t about luck, or averages or numbers. It’s about human performance, emotion and culture.  So if Cantlay wants to play mind tricks on himself to help create some confidence then fine. 
 

Some of the matches have been blowouts, that isn’t bad luck, the Euros just believed they would win more often and wanted it more.  So they played better. I’d take a bunch of good players who want to be there over a bunch of superstars who don’t really seem to give a damn. Every time. 

[josh21120]

38 minutes ago, JohnnyCashForever said:

Tell that to the guy who hits a perfect drive into a divot.

 

10 hours ago, Justsomeguy said:

He's wrong. Gin introduces a randomness that golf doesn't because cards are shuffled and dealt.

Randomness isn't the same as variance.

Factors like wind and weather and other small variable issues will certainly play out, but it's more akin to chess than it is to gin.

Gin is cards and cards are random. Chess is definitely not random, although it is variable due to styles of play and openings and who gets white or black, etc.

So although he gave some great recent interviews, this isn't one of them.

 

[iBanesto]

 

Obviously he meant the alcohol.

 

Always an element of chance how you end up the next morning. 40%-60% chance of not ending well is accurate.

Edited September 23, 2021 by iBanesto

[josh21120]

All of the variables, the randomness, luck, chance, etc,… just semantics in match play. The point is, the best players don’t necessarily win. Tiger has a losing Ryder Cup record, but pretty stellar career otherwise.
The US just seems to succumb to the pressure of being favorites. 

[ChipStrokes]

why can’t anyone get Cantlay’s name right?

[Nels55]

There is a huge amount of random chance in any kind of golf competition.  There are only 18 holes and limited number of shots hit.  Besides wind, tree bounces, cart path bounces, roll on the fairway or off there is also a randomness in every shot hit even at a high level.  Sometimes a golfers hits a bad hook for instance and it ends up one fairway over in a perfect lie while another golfer hit hits the same bad shot on a different hole and is re-teeing.  On the putting green a perfectly rolled putt from 10 feet is not going in every time though that percentage is higher on the greens the pros play the randomness is still there and the longer the shot the more random things get.  

 

If we compare golf to tennis where there is less randomness because of the volume of shots we see that the top players tend to win more often.  

 

So I think that the outcomes of the Ryder Cups that have been dominated by the Euros is mostly random chance, similar to the NL winning every Allstar game when I was a kid or the AL having a really long streak of wins after the DH went in.  There was all lot of ink printed about why those things happened but I think that in the end the teams were evenly matched and it was mostly streak of luck...

 

[khalespace]

You see these random chances all the times with stroke tournaments too. You see names of players outside the top 100 on top of the leaderboard after the first round. They often disappear after the third round.

[Justsomeguy]

All of this is why it's unbelievable to me that the euros are 2:1 and Americans are 1:2. It's just such a huge difference that the euros are such a huge value bet.

Now they might lose, but given that in reality it's a coin flip, 2:1 is a number you can't miss.

[MUNIGRIT]

42 minutes ago, Justsomeguy said:

All of this is why it's unbelievable to me that the euros are 2:1 and Americans are 1:2. It's just such a huge difference that the euros are such a huge value bet.

Now they might lose, but given that in reality it's a coin flip, 2:1 is a number you can't miss.

Until you realize the last 3 times on US soil it has been a lopsided US win 2x and the other time took Poulter 5 straight birdies and a couple that were not in his favor to make. 

[Justsomeguy]

1 hour ago, MUNIGRIT said:

Until you realize the last 3 times on US soil it has been a lopsided US win 2x and the other time took Poulter 5 straight birdies and a couple that were not in his favor to make. 

That's fair.

What was the personnel disparity for those losses? Were they similarly matched, or was it the world vs Tiger and Phil?

[Medson]

4 hours ago, iBanesto said:

 

Obviously he meant the alcohol.

 

Always an element of chance how you end up the next morning. 40%-60% chance of not ending well is accurate.

 

Ah ~~~ Now, it starts to make sense. 

[MUNIGRIT]

3 hours ago, Justsomeguy said:

That's fair.

What was the personnel disparity for those losses? Were they similarly matched, or was it the world vs Tiger and Phil?

I've only watched for about 20 years or so. The 90's teams it seems like Europe just had more talent like USA this year with Faldo, Langer, Seve, Mechanic, Monty, JMO etc. It seems clear to me there was just some bad play on the US side a few years. 2012 was plain mediocre play on Sunday. Probably lack of urgency just figuring out enough of us will win since we are so far ahead. Tiger was tied by Molinari to seal it. Over the past 6 it seems like whoever is at home can set it up to fit their team and it usually works other than 2012 where Cantlay's gambling comparison seems accurate. USA just puked on Sunday. These streaks happen in sports just like how the Broncos dominated the chiefs for many years and haven't beat them since 2015 now. Sports are 90 percent about talent.

 

I think USA gets it done this week in a big way.

Edited September 23, 2021 by MUNIGRIT

[deathbymuffin]

I like Cantlay.  Lol.  Kind of a weird dude, but he's not wrong.

[m d g]

21 hours ago, Justsomeguy said:

He's wrong. Gin introduces a randomness that golf doesn't because cards are shuffled and dealt.

Randomness isn't the same as variance.

Golf is played by people of differing skill levels. But things like 'rub of the green' or good bounces/bad bounces can be entirely random.

 

A good example is somebody throwing Tiger's ball back in play Tiger's great bounce during the 2000 PGA playoff.

[ShowMe]

11 hours ago, ChipStrokes said:

why can’t anyone get Cantlay’s name right?

 

That's what what she said.

[ChipStrokes]

1 hour ago, ShowMe said:

 

That's what what she said.

careful, you’ll pull a muscle reaching like that. 

Edited September 24, 2021 by ChipStrokes

[ShowMe]

7 minutes ago, ChipStrokes said:

careful, you’ll pull a muscle reaching like that. 

 

That's what she said.  😂

[Chanceman]

Hey look I am a much better player than you so if you beat me it has to be luck. No point in playing then. And I am also much smarter than you.

[hammersia]

I've got a bit of time for Cantlay as his interview where he discussed fan behaviour etc. was excellent and insightful.

 

But this gin analogy is just statistically muddle headed. In a Ryder Cup there are 3,500 individual shots played. The shot is what counts, same as the whole gin hand. 

 

It sure doesn't take 3,500 shots to determine statistically significant differences. Only takes 275 in a regular tournament.