Hypothetical tour player dilemma

[dubbelbogey]

The data on this should make the argument here go away, yet it somehow still persists. 

 

The tired "putt for dough" mantra should be burned with fire, dumped into the compost bin and buried under 10 feet of lead.

 

If you hit it short, you're struggling to even make it to the tour. And if you're in the handful that do, you're struggling to stay on tour, and are not ever, generally, contending to win.

 

Putting is important, but the differentiation in winning likelihood doesn't come from career, long-term putting skill. Distance off the tee, however, has a much stronger correlation (and by most accounts, causation) to winning. Any given week, the winner will generally have putted well. But over the course of a season or career, the best players are generally those that are better off the tee (as measured by SG) and not those that have the best SG putting over those same time frames.

 

Oh - I forgot to originally mention, I'll take strong approach play as the best trait to actually have.

 

 

 

Edited October 29, 2021 by dubbelbogey

[SylvesterLundgren]

14 hours ago, Dr.Zevia said:

My original thought was someone like Bubba Watson.  Huge off the tee, but we haven't seen him contend in a major for probably five years.  I know he's had some mental issues, but I think putting has been a problem with him his entire career.
Then you have a Jordan Spieth, who can roll it but maybe is getting left behind with distance off the tee.  Or even another great putter who doesn't crop up in majors all that often.  

Well what is the cut off for distance Before youreleft behind? I know he can move the ball 290 to me that’s enough distance imo. 
bubba definitely is a higher level player that you’d think would be more in contention but like you said the mental game is probably at odds.

[dropkicked]

You need strength in every aspect of "your" game in order to win.... I don't think one trick ponies stand a chance these days..

[Titleist99]

49 minutes ago, dubbelbogey said:

The data on this should make the argument here go away, yet it somehow still persists. 

 

The tired "putt for dough" mantra should be burned with fire, dumped into the compost bin and buried under 10 feet of lead.

 

If you hit it short, you're struggling to even make it to the tour. And if you're in the handful that do, you're struggling to stay on tour, and are not ever, generally, contending to win.

 

Putting is important, but the differentiation in winning likelihood doesn't come from career, long-term putting skill. Distance off the tee, however, has a much stronger correlation (and by most accounts, causation) to winning. Any given week, the winner will generally have putted well. But over the course of a season or career, the best players are generally those that are better off the tee (as measured by SG) and not those that have the best SG putting over those same time frames.

 

Oh - I forgot to originally mention, I'll take strong approach play as the best trait to actually have.

 

 

 

The only strokes gained that matter is the ones on Sunday, coming down the back nine of a tournament. How a player deal with pressure when it count...

I do agree totally with  your statement "Oh - I forgot to originally mention, I'll take strong approach play as the best trait to actually have'.

[RichieHunt]

I'd rather be long off the tee.   You can bring length with you wherever you go and it's an advantage.  You're just not going to putt great every week.  And the biggest thing power helps with is putting.  You can be an inferior skilled putter, but if you're longer you can easily *sink* more putts than a superior skilled putter with much less distance.

 

Get 4 days where you putt reasonably well and with great distance and you can easily win (i.e. John Daly in '91 PGA Championship).

 

And if I was super long but struggled with the putter, I'd probably focus on short game around the green just as much as my putting, to be honest.

 

 

 

 

RH

[tacklingdummy]

Granted you have tour distance. Hitting fairways and greens, you are giving yourself birdie chances and avoiding bogies. Missing fairways and greens, you struggling to make pars and bringing in more bogeys. 

[freeze16172002]

long distance and reign in the short game. way easier to make a long hitters short game better then a short hitter longer.  what is a long hitter anyway? everyone on tour hits it about 300 or more. 

Edited October 29, 2021 by freeze16172002

[straightshot7]

21 hours ago, Dr.Zevia said:

You're a tour player struggling to contend in majors.  Would you rather be long off the tee and struggle on the greens, or be a great putter and be falling behind in today's distance game.  Which one is easier to fix?

lacks detail…

 

How is my iron/wedge play? 
 

If my iron/wedge play isn’t decent, the length off the tee doesn’t matter much.

 

if my approach game is elite, my short game doesn’t need to be. 
 

what does “struggle” on the greens mean? Am I below average by Tour standards or am I 3 putting every other hole?

 

and exactly how long off the tee are we talking? Longest on Tour?

 

but to answer your question I think putting is easier to fix. 

[stinger_gc]

I think a better question would be, would you rather be a top 10 ball-striker and a streaky putter or a top 10 putter and a streaky ball striker.

 

 

I'd much rather be a top 10 ball-striker and a streaky putter then it being the other way around. (basically Collin Morikawa).

 

I've studied this before when trying to figure out which aspect of my game I should practice the most and where most of the scoring happens. For me, putting comes and goes, but if I'm confident with how I'm hitting my irons I should be able to play stress-free golf as opposed to grinding on every hole.

 

Also putting in most cases gets easier the closer you are to the hole.

 

In 2021 on the PGA Tour you had to hit 70% of the greens to be in the top 10, and the tour average is 65%. On paper that's only 1 more green per round for the top 10 ball-striker. But depending on the hole that one missed green could be very catastrophic and cost you the tournament (12th at Augusta). 

 

[farmer]

For context, YJS at no. 66 and 299 is about 7 yds shorter than Will Zalatoris at 23.  In the real world, not enough difference to make a difference.

[bscinstnct]

3 hours ago, dubbelbogey said:

The data on this should make the argument here go away, yet it somehow still persists. 

 

The tired "putt for dough" mantra should be burned with fire, dumped into the compost bin and buried under 10 feet of lead.

 

If you hit it short, you're struggling to even make it to the tour. And if you're in the handful that do, you're struggling to stay on tour, and are not ever, generally, contending to win.

 

Putting is important, but the differentiation in winning likelihood doesn't come from career, long-term putting skill. Distance off the tee, however, has a much stronger correlation (and by most accounts, causation) to winning. Any given week, the winner will generally have putted well. But over the course of a season or career, the best players are generally those that are better off the tee (as measured by SG) and not those that have the best SG putting over those same time frames.

 

Oh - I forgot to originally mention, I'll take strong approach play as the best trait to actually have.

 

 

 

 

I took the OP to be more specific to a guy who is already on tour, doing fine, but struggling in majors. 

 

For example, Rory is not only an elite driver but too of the board in ball striking as measure led by SG tee to green. 
 

He hasn’t won a major in 7 years. In fact, he missed 3 US Open cuts in a row. And missed 25% of the cuts in majors for the past 6 years.

 

All because his putting and short game stink.

 

 

Or DJ, guy has two majors but is 37.

 

Spieth has 3 and Morikawa already has 2. Morikawa was 112th driving distance and was 178th SG putting (losing strokes per round!) last year.

 

Just goes to show how much a Hoyt putter can beat the long ball in majors. 

Edited October 29, 2021 by bscinstnct

[3whacker]

used to be an old adage that two things don't last...."dogs chasing cars and pros chasing pars"...in many ways that still exists, a great putter may not win often on Tour but they will cash lots of checks and have a lengthy career (Louis U) , there are still a few venues where they can contend like Hilton Head, Pebble, Riviera...granted the Tour norm is now bomb and gouge but look at a guy like Webb Simpson he is by no means a long hitter, neither is Kevin Na and they both do make a fair amount of $$$$

[dubbelbogey]

2 minutes ago, bscinstnct said:

 

 

Spieth has 3 and Morikawa has 2. Morikawa was 112th driving distance and was 178th SG putting (losing strokes per round!) last year.

 

Just goes to show how much a Hoyt putter can beat the long ball in majors. 

 

I don't disagree - a hot putter can go a long ways. Thing is, nobody is hot with their putter for a very long time.

 

And while Spieth and Morkawa aren't the very longest, they're certainly not short and definitely long enough. 

 

The overall odds go with those consistently in the top-10 (or top-whatever) and that population set is generally excellent tee-to-green, while a mixed bag when it comes to putting over the long term.

[golfgirlrobin]

If I had to choose between average distance/exceptional short game and exceptional distance/average short game, I’d take the former. 
 

People win all the time without being super long but it’s tough winning without an exceptional putting week. 
 

Folks are responding that short game is easier to improve, but if that was true, a lot more long hitters would have done it. Rory still misses greens from a hundred yards and you know that it’s not for lack of trying. 

Edited October 29, 2021 by golfgirlrobin

[smashdn]

23 hours ago, Dr.Zevia said:

You're a tour player struggling to contend in majors.  Would you rather be long off the tee and struggle on the greens, or be a great putter and be falling behind in today's distance game.  Which one is easier to fix?

 

Tough question but a good one.  At first blush I thought to myself, if I am a great putter I can probably go buy or get fit to get mor e distance.  But then I got to thinking deeper about SG and what Broadie found out when he did the deep dive into why they win individual tournaments - getting hot with the putter, not being a great putter.

 

So give me driving distance and let me sort of be around the pack by virtue of that (BDC, DJ, Rory) and every now and again putts will fall and I will win. 

 

A win changes everything out there.  Huge difference between a winner and second in terms of security and purse and the other doors it opens for you.

[ChipNRun]

23 hours ago, Dr.Zevia said:

You're a tour player struggling to contend in majors.  Would you rather be long off the tee and struggle on the greens, or be a great putter and be falling behind in today's distance game.  Which one is easier to fix?

 

What about increasing GIRs?

 

You may be missing out on something, according to golf analytics. Mark Broadie, a professor from Columbia Business School, developed the strokes gained concept from statistical analysis of golf field performance. He explains the details in his book, Every Stroke Counts.

 

Broadie found that 40% of the average score difference from one skill level of golfers to another is Greens in Regulation.

 

Putting influences things in an odd way. Poor putting will prevent you from scoring well, but excellent putting will not necessarily win tournaments for you.

 

And, a person's percentage of GIRs from approach shots increases the closer to the green they are for the shot. Score one for tee-shot distance.

 

Of your two scenarios:

• Long off tee but struggle on greens: Poor putting prevents you from scoring well.
• Excellent putter but short tee shots: Again, are you getting the same GIRs as longer players? If you get 28 putts because you had 8 up-and-downs to save pars, you're getting mainly hard pars rather than birdies, which likely would increase with more GIRs.

End thought: Get those GIRs up to struggle less in majors (and all tournaments).

[bscinstnct]

9 minutes ago, ChipNRun said:

 

What about increasing GIRs?

 

You may be missing out on something, according to golf analytics. Mark Broadie, a professor from Columbia Business School, developed the strokes gained concept from statistical analysis of golf field performance. He explains the details in his book, Every Stroke Counts.

 

Broadie found that 40% of the average score difference from one skill level of golfers to another is Greens in Regulation.

 

Putting influences things in an odd way. Poor putting will prevent you from scoring well, but excellent putting will not necessarily win tournaments for you.

 

And, a person's percentage of GIRs from approach shots increases the closer to the green they are for the shot. Score one for tee-shot distance.

 

Of your two scenarios:

• Long off tee but struggle on greens: Poor putting prevents you from scoring well.
• Excellent putter but short tee shots: Again, are you getting the same GIRs as longer players? If you get 28 putts because you had 8 up-and-downs to save pars, you're getting mainly hard pars rather than birdies, which likely would increase with more GIRs.

End thought: Get those GIRs up to struggle less in majors (and all tournaments).

 

Yes, Broadies stuff is great. Real eye opener. I recall it showed as awesome as TWs putting us, it was his power that gained the most strokes.

 

Makes sense, you can pick up 2+ shots a round tee to green. But over the season, even the best putters don’t pick up even one stroke a round putting.

 

You can be Rory and win majors not picking up any strokes with your putter.

But even Rory can’t win majors if his putting is very poor. The past 7 years shoe that. 

 

Also, *every one of Rory’s majors was on soft slow greens. 
 

That’s usually not the case with majors.

 

So, again, nobody is winning a major unless the are an excellent putter or have a fantastic week putting if they aren’t. 

[larrybud]

On 10/28/2021 at 2:08 PM, Dr.Zevia said:

You're a tour player struggling to contend in majors.  Would you rather be long off the tee and struggle on the greens, or be a great putter and be falling behind in today's distance game.  Which one is easier to fix?

 

Rather struggle on the greens, because anybody can get hot for one week. Ball striking usually is more consistent.

[ChipNRun]

2 hours ago, bscinstnct said:

Makes sense, you can pick up 2+ shots a round tee to green. But over the season, even the best putters don’t pick up even one stroke a round putting.

 

Here's a little story you and others may find interesting. A decade ago, I was taking lessons from an area pro who was big on wedges and short game. Back in his junior year in college, he had the low-putt average per round for the Missouri Valley Conference. He said he got the low-putt mark because of a good short game: Lots of 5-footers to save par.

 

In his senior year, he improved his GIR by +2 per round. But, he was no longer low-putt guy.

[Spongerob]

Long hitters will all have great putting weeks. If they come at the right times you will win majors. See Rory or VJ as an example. But one thing that can never happen is a short hitting but great putter/ short game artist getting hot and striping 330 yard drives for a month. Never happens. See Luke Donald. Great,  REALLY great short game. But never good enough to win a major. The current game pretty much says go long or go home.

Edited October 31, 2021 by Spongerob

[dropkicked]

oops wrong thread. 🙂

Edited October 31, 2021 by dropkicked

[J_Tizzle]

I do think on the pro level (assuming general PGA tour skillsets) I'd rather be consistently longer than a consistently better putter, because as many have stated, the putter can get hot, but the driver can't all of a sudden get hot for an extra 30 yards.