Distance carry variance: Are "average" golfers just guessing?

[ChipNRun]

This post contains details to a reply I made to @Ger's interesting thread, Carry vs. total yardage for average weekend golfer.

 

 

On 11/17/2021 at 3:02 PM, Gerr said:

I know that everyone says carry is king, but is it really the best for your average weekend golfer?  Knowing your per club carry introduces an additional set of numbers to know/memorize, that being average roll per club.  So after you make your calculations to how far your next shot will carry based on several factors, you then have to make a second set of calculations based on where your ball will likely land and how far the likely roll out is. ...   I think it's beyond most weekend golfers to preform two sets of distance calculations for each shot.

 

For an average weekend golfer, I believe average carry is best.  Thoughts/opinions?

 

I would suggest we focus the discussion better. First, you talk about average weekend golfer. The average is... averages of several subgroups with quite different characteristics. Is the individual weekend golfer someone who once played 50 rounds a year, but is down to 16 or so because of family and job responsibilities? Or, is the person a casual golfer who happens to play mostly on weekends, who plays mainly for fun with friends and family? Or is it a female who took a golf clinic, and keep drives in the fairway and never three-putts, and knows the rules of golf better than 90% of males? We lose a lot of information by trying to aggregate stats that obliterate differences among diverse groups.

 

Let's focus on level of engagement with golf, how much the person is into golf, how much they devote to developing and improving their game. More engaged golfers can make more complex decisions automatically without creating a slow play situation. Note I said decisions, not calculations.

First of all, fairly engaged golfers don't calculate twice a shot how far the ball will go. They develop yardstick cards on how far the ball will go. Real sticklers will develop these outdoors using Trackman with gamer balls, while others will take notes on a couple of par 3 holes on how far the ball carries. Some keep actual cards inside scorecard book, others append from golf bag (also very common for Pelz wedge matrices), while others can just remember. They are using a decision matrix, not making a bunch of ad hoc calculations.

Then, they apply their yardstick on a given shot. And, on a given shot, what is the penalty for a short miss... or a long miss? Carry is the best guide for carrying hazards. As far as runout, lots of different factors at play here:

• Ball contact and swing path. If a player hits an iron on the fourth groove, this supposedly maximized trajectory and spin for that club (yes, 4Gr is a bit oversimplified). And swing path: For righties, failure to square up means miss right, over-rotation means miss left. Fat shots fall short, while thin shots can run out more.
• Course conditions. Putting green turf has more body a couple of weeks after spring aeration than in fall and winter months of thinner blades; more body means more GIR. Soil under turf... soft loam will foster more GIRs than harder clay. Moisture: Windswept greens on upper part of course will be drier - and harder to hold - than shielded greens down in valley (water settles downhill). Green slope: on older courses, several holes may drain from front to back. For this, a shot landing front fringe may hold better than one landing center mass, and rolling over.

So, a golfer takes his yardstick card and uses it to determine how much carry is needed... to avoid disaster, hazards... to hit green. Next, runout considerations for the day and hole, course conditions, and golfer's tendencies for backspin per club type. My PW may release 2 feet on a solid shot, while my 5i may release 3 to 25 feet on a (seemingly) solid shot.

 

Edited November 20, 2021 by ChipNRun
Adjust text size.

[jvincent]

In the age of rangefinders and GPS there is no real reason for people to be guessing about how far a ball carries.

 

What does come into play, probably a lot, is how honest people are about their capabilities.

 

Most decent golfers, single digit indexes or better, will have pretty reliable distances for a well struck shot. Slightly low/high on the face or off center aren't going to make enough of a difference to matter for these guys. Yes, they'll hit the occasional really thin or fat one but for the most part they've got a good handle on their carry distance. This category of golfers is generally pretty aware of their max and mishit distance as well so they'll make adjustments based on where the trouble is.

 

Once you get into the higher indexes it gets harder. The variance on contact can be so large that selective memory comes into play. These guys will remember that one 6i they pured and carried 180 but forget the 90% that only went 160. Magically 180 becomes their 6i carry distance and they always end up short.

[WristySwing]

Having done innumerable fits over the past almost 20 years this exact problem rears its head almost daily.  Most people have no freaking clue how far they hit the golf ball.  Like at all.  Most vastly overestimate their prowess as the poster about me mentions.  I can't count the number of times I set a green out on the GC Hawk for them to warm up and the stock 6i yardage is always around 170-180, as per their request.  They flail away hopelessly for 10 minutes getting 1in10 on the surface on the fly.  Most falling out of the air around 157-160 and running up.  

 

Take a tour around a golf store on a rainy Saturday in July as a volunteer sales associate and you'd swear you were on the range at a PGA Tour event.  Everyone is capable of easily hitting the ball 280+ and needs the stiffest of the stiff shafts with the lowest launch and torque with at most a 9* head.  Remind you of anywhere?  😜 In short, yes, they are guessing.  I would wager a strong bet that without any sort of launch monitor, everyone is guessing.  Tee markers and scorecards are rarely updated.  Driving range flags are not accurate.  I've had a guy tell me with a straight face that he is the only one that can hit the end of our driving range with a driver he has ever seen.  I have to preface this by saying I am far from long...I am a 145 maybe 150 ball speed with the driver guy.  I was hitting 3 wood to the end of the uphill range fairly easily when it had rolled out.  I lasered it, 220 uphill.  He told me it was wrong and it was easily 260+.  I smiled and nodded and kept hitting balls.  They hit it as far as they want to hit it in their minds.  They hit it 240, so someone who outdrives them must be a 280 player....sarcasm by the way.

Edited November 18, 2021 by WristySwing

[cristphoto]

I pretty much know all my iron carry distances by using my laser and with a decent hit I see how far my ball mark is from the flag (front to back).  For tee shots I go to my ball and measure back to either the tee box marker or ball washer. Of course that's not carry but total distance.  For driver that's what I care about. At my home club I don't use my laser nearly as much as when I travel. Then I use it on most everything.  

[ShortGolfer]

I hit enough trees to know my carry distances with the clubs in my Sunday bag.  Trees never move.

Edited November 19, 2021 by ShortGolfer

[ChipNRun]

21 hours ago, jvincent said:

These guys will remember that one 6i they pured and carried 180 but forget the 90% that only went 160.

 

17 hours ago, WristySwing said:

.. the stock 6i yardage is always around 170-180, as per their request.  They flail away hopelessly for 10 minutes getting 1in10 on the surface on the fly.  Most falling out of the air around 157-160 and running up.

 

These remarks remind me of a day I volunteered with a St. Louis area MAGA course-rating team. Each hole gets rated from two viewpoints: The Scratch golfer and the Bogey golfer.

• Male Scratch has 0 HDCP, can hit a drive 250 yards and get  home in two on a 470-yard hole
• Female Scratch has 0 HDCP, can hit a drive 200 yards and get home in two on a 400-yard hole
• Male Bogey has 20 HDCP, can hit a drive 200 yards and get home in two on a 370-yard hole.
• Female Bogey has 24 HDCP, can hit a drive 150 yards and get home in two on a 280-yard hole.

 

 

The Scratch vs. Bogey profiles are compared for various rating metrics.

 

One of the areas is awarding points for difficulty of forced carries: a need to clear a hazard, heavy rough, a lake or creek, or cross bunkers. Now, our Bogey guy is supposed to be able to hit an approach shot 170 yards. BUT, if the hole puts our Bogey golfer in a position where he needs to carry the ball more than 160 yards, the hole gets extra difficulty points. Course raters know that although the approach should carry 170 yards, it often doesn't. This means the Bogey golfer may be forced to lay up rather than hit a full shot.* The ratings people realize this, but as jv and WS point out, average golfers don't.

-----------------------

*Scratch golfers may also be forced to lay up rather than hit a full

shot. An example: A 500-yard par 5 on which a lake covers the

last 50 yards before the green.

(250 + 220 puts ball in middle of lake).

 

Edited November 19, 2021 by ChipNRun
Insert "scratch layup" text.

[lefthack]

I have my irons pretty dialed minus wind for carry, but roll out is anybody's guess out here. My home course has 150 stakes that are pretty close. So you can guess based on how far you are from the stake. 

[Billfitz]

I know the carry plus roll for my irons, because when I'm hitting an iron I'm going at the flag, so I know the precise yardage to target. Carry versus roll doesn't concern me. Experience tells me when I need to add or subtract a club or two to account for the variables that affect the shot, and when it's better to be longer or shorter to avoid trouble.

[Pepperturbo]

On 11/18/2021 at 10:55 AM, jvincent said:

In the age of rangefinders and GPS there is no real reason for people to be guessing about how far a ball carries.

That statement doesn't have merit.  I have an old Bushnell laser, and the latest and greatest Approach Z82 GPS/Laser and a Garmin Fenix 6X Pro watch.  Both have distance measuring functions, but no way to measure where the ball lands, only from strike to where it finishes.  Neither of them read like TrackMan alleges. 

 

 

 

 

[jvincent]

15 minutes ago, Pepperturbo said:

That statement doesn't have merit.  I have an old Bushnell laser, and the latest and greatest Approach Z82 GPS/Laser and a Garmin Fenix 6X Pro watch.  Both have distance measuring functions, but no way to measure where the ball lands, only from strike to where it finishes.  Neither of them read like TrackMan alleges. 

 

 

Assuming you hit a green every once in a while the pitch mark will tell you exactly where you landed.

 

I'm assuming that we're mostly worried about iron carry distances here. Unless you play at my course with its notoriously soft fairways in which case it's easy to measure driver carry as well.

[Pepperturbo]

22 minutes ago, jvincent said:

 

Assuming you hit a green every once in a while the pitch mark will tell you exactly where you landed.

 

I'm assuming that we're mostly worried about iron carry distances here. Unless you play at my course with its notoriously soft fairways in which case it's easy to measure driver carry as well.

True, except regional factors are probably in play. 

 

There are no pitch marks in the fairways of most of the courses I frequent here in SOCA, not unless they have lousy drainage, and it just rained.  Was in HI recently and no pitch marks there either.  Last week at the course near my house, no ball marks on greens unless my ball was coming in hard to an elevated green causing a skid, or we were hitting into a green from an elevated position.

 

Most of the courses I play have firm conditions and tight fairways.  That's not to say pitch marks don't happen.  It's to say, from the tee, if they exist, it's hard to go back from where I find my ball and determine which mark is from my ball.

 

Then there's this; nobody I know hits all irons into greens.  And it wouldn't work on most of the greens I play.  They don't have much in the way of pitch/ball marks, especially really nice courses.  One course I frequent, I might find a ball skid mark on the green, but its seldom.   Another course last week didn't have to fix one green pitch mark.  They didn't exist, and the greens were holding, nicely.

Edited November 19, 2021 by Pepperturbo

[Valtiel]

On 11/18/2021 at 10:55 AM, jvincent said:

Once you get into the higher indexes it gets harder. The variance on contact can be so large that selective memory comes into play. These guys will remember that one 6i they pured and carried 180 but forget the 90% that only went 160. Magically 180 becomes their 6i carry distance and they always end up short.

When guys do claim to have an idea how far they hit each club, this is the vast majority of the problem. Strike quality and face angle control simply vary too much and they choose to remember the "better" number to their detriment. The better "bad" players will take that into account when danger is either long or short, but otherwise it is simply a crap shoot. 

Btw, i'm not sure if you happened to see the same video i'm thinking of @jvincent, but there is a british golf Youtuber that recently played with a pretty typical version of one of these weekenders that said exactly what you just described. Nice guy it seemed, but mentioned that his 6i goes 180-190 only to skank one about 150 and 30y left of target. 😅

[jvincent]

6 hours ago, Valtiel said:

Btw, i'm not sure if you happened to see the same video i'm thinking of @jvincent, but there is a british golf Youtuber that recently played with a pretty typical version of one of these weekenders that said exactly what you just described. Nice guy it seemed, but mentioned that his 6i goes 180-190 only to skank one about 150 and 30y left of target. 😅

 

I watch a bunch of the UK guys, but don't remember that one.

[Billfitz]

10 hours ago, Valtiel said:

When guys do claim to have an idea how far they hit each club, this is the vast majority of the problem. Strike quality and face angle control simply vary too much and they choose to remember the "better" number to their detriment.

True. The typical amateur remembers their best shots and choose the club based on that. They should remember their worst shots and pull the club based on that. Nine times out of ten you're better off long than short anyway. You see the same thing in their putting. They're so concerned about going too long that their usual miss is short, and low, as they underestimate the break as well. The pro miss is long and high.

[Phabs]

The reason my 5 iron goes 225, 155, 201 and 245.🤣🤣

Edited November 20, 2021 by Phabs

[A.Princey]

5 hours ago, Billfitz said:

True. The typical amateur remembers their best shots and choose the club based on that. They should remember their worst shots and pull the club based on that. Nine times out of ten you're better off long than short anyway. You see the same thing in their putting. They're so concerned about going too long that their usual miss is short, and low, as they underestimate the break as well. The pro miss is long and high.

I don’t know if long is a good miss, most greens are sloped back to front, and the back + periphery is usually long rough. Short is typically fairway or fringe, hitting into the slope of the green. I always aim to miss short when between clubs, provided it’s not a rare hole with water, front.