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Would a tour player take 250 down the middle?


Dr.Zevia

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On 12/3/2021 at 6:25 PM, oikos1 said:

That's fine if you want to rest your case, but lets do some fact checking.  Na Yeon Choi came on the Tour in 2008 when the top Driver of the ball averaged 269.3 yards.  She ranked 20th at 257.4 yards.  13 years later, she averages 250.5 and the top of the list averages 290.8.  A 40 yard difference today, a 12 yard difference 13 years ago.

 

And since you picked her for your poster child, I'm certain you know when she did the majority of her winning.

The only dominant long hitter is Nelly and much shorter hitters have been dominant for much longer than her run.  All the rest are much closer to the 250 than they are to 290.  Power hitters on the LPGA are not dominant was my main premise.  When you scroll through the list the best players are not at the top of the list and are much closer to the middle of the pack in regards to distance.  Lydia and Inbee are hall of famers right now and they are giving up 30 yards to the biggest hitters yet they have been dominant.  Jin Young Ko is on a HoF trajectory and she is giving up 30 yards also but already has 13 wins in just 3 years on tour.  This same trend is not present on the PGA tour where all our dominant golfers are nearer to the top of the driving distance rankings.  

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I think 280 down the middle every time might make some people think about it, but even then i'm not sure. Would be a great recipe to make every cut. But hard to win events. So many guys just devour the par 5's hitting it like 330 and having irons in

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On 12/1/2021 at 11:57 PM, Mcgeeno said:

 

Furyk averages 280 or so no? 

 

Thats still a 30 yard difference. Nobody hits it 250 on tour. Not even close. 

 

Maybe in '86

 

Agreed. Calvin Peete did incredibly well in the 80's hitting it 250, with 80+% accuracy for an entire decade.

 

https://www.golfchannel.com/article/golf-central-blog/numbers-calvin-peetes-career

 

https://twitter.com/LukeKerrDineen/status/1244252139884621825?s=20

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On 12/2/2021 at 12:50 PM, Titleist99 said:

Rocco is right......driving in the fairway at 280 yards will allow you to compete on any golf course period....IMO The talking heads on TV are just trying to sell distance and drivers......Longest driver on tour has eight wins and one major championship yet people are losing their minds and throwing their game out the window to emulate him.....go figure!

On 12/2/2021 at 11:30 AM, Titleist99 said:

IMO......PGATOUR, USGA and R&A control the set up of a golf course. If they wished, they could stop target golf any time they choose... they just choose not to......IMO

On 12/2/2021 at 11:08 AM, Titleist99 said:

I'll take 2000 Tiger placing the ball in the fairway 250 over any player short of Collin Morikawa.....these two guys understand that control comes from the fairway and there's a proper side of the fairway to be on while entering the green.....a lot of Wrxers seem to get lost in this concept.....IMO

 

Iron game and putter will get you a few majors.....IMO

On 12/2/2021 at 10:40 AM, Titleist99 said:

While I agree, 250 is to low......290 is way to high. IMO.....290-300 yards off the tee in today's PGATOUR is the sweet spot. Drives over that is potentially diminished returns...IMO

On 12/3/2021 at 2:54 PM, Titleist99 said:

While I don't think any Touring Pro that's worth his weight in salt would take that 250 deal.....Lets not pretend that short courses don't exist on the PGATOUR......Lots of courses 7000 yards and below, I might add.......IMO

 

Rest assured it's perfectly clear to all here that these are YOUR OPINION.

 

Certainly not many else would want to claim them. 🤣

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On 12/5/2021 at 11:23 AM, MtlJeff said:

I think 280 down the middle every time might make some people think about it, but even then i'm not sure. Would be a great recipe to make every cut. But hard to win events. So many guys just devour the par 5's hitting it like 330 and having irons in

 

Yeah, just change the yardage to something like that (but even more.  290?) and the general concept of his question is valid and debatable.

Edited by chigolfer1
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On 12/2/2021 at 3:40 PM, Titleist99 said:

While I agree, 250 is to low......290 is way to high. IMO.....290-300 yards off the tee in today's PGATOUR is the sweet spot. Drives over that is potentially diminished returns...IMO

290 limits your ability to get at par 5s, you'd have to be a very good fairway wood player to make up for it. If you have a par 5 of 570 yards, that's 280 left to the pin. Rory smokes one and he has 230 left. If you only hit 290 yards with a driver, then you probably can't hit that with a 3 wood. Rory has a 4 iron into the green.

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Would YOU take 250 off the tee down the middle each time?

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2 hours ago, AntLockyer said:

Would YOU take 250 off the tee down the middle each time?

 

My course is 6700yds but i find plays a bit shorter than that (par 3 length is long, couple of unreachable par 5s). Many of the par 4's are 370-380yds

 

So i'd be dumb not to take that.

 

I'd probably take 240. Under that, probably not

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2 hours ago, AntLockyer said:

Would YOU take 250 off the tee down the middle each time?

 

No.  I'd take the 290 though.  But even that would still leave me at a disadvantage playing against my peers at times due to distance only.  I know guys driving 310 yard holes with 3 woods.  Club players with day jobs.  Why I firmly believe the distance stuff has gotten out of hand not just on tour, and not just at high level college play, this is podunk KY country club stuff.

 

Everybody I play with is off of @MtlJayMan's chart on the distance side.  270 is high school player driver distance.

Edited by smashdn
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11 minutes ago, MtlJayMan said:

Now that’s an interesting question… and even at WRX - knowing the % of fairway hit… I’m guessing most would/should

D4B0A2CE-AF13-43B7-AF45-997CD8433B24.jpeg

That's a good graph. My coach said to me yesterday "Easily hit 12 fairways and 14 greens. All you need." So I guess I would be taking the 250 down the middle, especially when you see there are still scratch golfers hitting it 230 yards.

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On 12/5/2021 at 2:53 AM, Righty to Lefty said:

The only dominant long hitter is Nelly and much shorter hitters have been dominant for much longer than her run.  All the rest are much closer to the 250 than they are to 290.  Power hitters on the LPGA are not dominant was my main premise.  When you scroll through the list the best players are not at the top of the list and are much closer to the middle of the pack in regards to distance.  Lydia and Inbee are hall of famers right now and they are giving up 30 yards to the biggest hitters yet they have been dominant.  Jin Young Ko is on a HoF trajectory and she is giving up 30 yards also but already has 13 wins in just 3 years on tour.  This same trend is not present on the PGA tour where all our dominant golfers are nearer to the top of the driving distance rankings.  

Ironically, they say the major difference between men and women pros is that men have better short games. You'd think it would be almost the same or better for the women in that some of the female pros are giving up so much yardage (similar to how Webb Simpson or Luke Donald became #1). Rick Reilly noted this in his book "Whose your Caddy".

 

This is just an observation, but watching the Solheim Cup, I did notice a lot of bad short game shots. And these are suppose to be the top females. Not saying guys dont hit bad shots. 

 

Looking at stats, 100th in sand saves on the PGA tour is around 50%, 100th on the LPGA is around 40%. 

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4 hours ago, AntLockyer said:

That's a good graph. My coach said to me yesterday "Easily hit 12 fairways and 14 greens. All you need." So I guess I would be taking the 250 down the middle, especially when you see there are still scratch golfers hitting it 230 yards.

 

What length tees do you typically play from?  What length tees do they play from?

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5 hours ago, smashdn said:

 

What length tees do you typically play from?  What length tees do they play from?

6600 yards is the championship tee at my home course. I average 250 off the tee.

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16 hours ago, Ironman_32 said:

Ironically, they say the major difference between men and women pros is that men have better short games. You'd think it would be almost the same or better for the women in that some of the female pros are giving up so much yardage (similar to how Webb Simpson or Luke Donald became #1). Rick Reilly noted this in his book "Whose your Caddy".

 

This is just an observation, but watching the Solheim Cup, I did notice a lot of bad short game shots. And these are suppose to be the top females. Not saying guys dont hit bad shots. 

 

Looking at stats, 100th in sand saves on the PGA tour is around 50%, 100th on the LPGA is around 40%. 

The best on the LPGA are just as good as the best on the PGA tour when playing from their respective tees.  My friend is an LPGA caddy and he always mentions the level of skill that the women posses but they don't hit it very far on average so they don't get as many eyeballs as the PGA does because of the drama that the men create by hitting all over the yard.  Jin Young Ko hit 63 greens in a row during a tournament which is crazy to even try to fathom playing a tournament and doing that.  And I'm not sure if this is more impressive or not but Lydia Ko went 180 holes in a row without a bogey.  Let that sink in....10 rounds of golf without making bogey or worse!!.  That will play all day no matter what gender you are. I have never gone bogey free and the most greens I've ever hit in a row is 9 and I thought I could conquer the world the few times that I did it!  Right when you think you are good these men and women do things that really put things  into perspective.   

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Having read through all the comments I want to reflect on a few sentiments. 

 

250yards and 275 yards are very short yes, but the assumption the OP made was that you would place the ball in the fairway each time (best accuracy on tour is not 100%, this would include no foul balls, penalties etc even under pressure) so I am going to place some thoughts below based on pure stats and published research to create some debate. I am using Mark Broadie strokes gained data from his book for the argument.

 

For simplicity the average PGA Tour course is 7200 yards. Assume 4 x Par 3 holes of 200 yards each. Lets just make the rest the same length:

 

6400 yards / 14 tee shots = Average hole is 457 yards. Lets round to 460 yards

 

Strokes gained: (corrected as per later post correction*)

 

250y tee shot

 

460y Hole = 4,170 strokes off the tee

210m second shot from fairway (assume 250y tee shot) = 3,255

Therefore if on EVERY tee shot I am safely in the fairway the my SG off the tee for the round is as follows:

4.170 - 3.255 - 1 = -0.085 per hole or -1.19 per round

 

275y tee shot

 

460y Hole = 4,170 strokes off the tee

185m second shot from fairway (assume 275y tee shot) = 3,135

Therefore if on EVERY tee shot I am safely in the fairway the my SG off the tee for the round is as follows:

4.170 - 3.135 - 1 = 0.035 per hole or 0.49 per round

 

Statistically speaking if you were to do better than the field in that would be a positive so you would have to conclude that yes any player that has a SG off the tee score that is worse than -1.19  per round you would take it. Looking at the PGA tour stats for 2021 EVERY tour player, barring the top  20 players in the world would take 275y off the tee in the middle placed in the fairway. Based on the stats and updated data points, only 1 player on PGA tour would take 250.

 

 

image.png.eb8bed75a5a92099104e50701412716a.png

 

Personally, my SG off the tee is killing me so I would take those for sure! 

Edited by ewaldbeukes
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3 hours ago, ewaldbeukes said:

Having read through all the comments I want to reflect on a few sentiments. 

 

250yards and 275 yards are very short yes, but the assumption the OP made was that you would place the ball in the fairway each time (best accuracy on tour is not 100%, this would include no foul balls, penalties etc even under pressure) so I am going to place some thoughts below based on pure stats and published research to create some debate. I am using Mark Broadie strokes gained data from his book for the argument.

 

For simplicity the average PGA Tour course is 7200 yards. Assume 4 x Par 3 holes of 200 yards each. Lets just make the rest the same length:

 

6400 yards / 14 tee shots = Average hole is 457 yards. Lets round to 460 yards

 

Strokes gained:

 

250y tee shot

 

460y Hole = 4,170 strokes off the tee

210m second shot from fairway (assume 250y tee shot) = 3,145

Therefore if on EVERY tee shot I am safely in the fairway the my SG off the tee for the round is as follows:

4.170 - 3.145 - 1 = 0.025 per hole or 0.35 per round

 

275y tee shot

 

460y Hole = 4,170 strokes off the tee

185m second shot from fairway (assume 275y tee shot) = 3,0675

Therefore if on EVERY tee shot I am safely in the fairway the my SG off the tee for the round is as follows:

4.170 - 3.0675 - 1 = 0.103 per hole or 1.435 per round

 

Statistically speaking if you were to do better than the field in that would be a positive so you would have to conclude that yes any player that has a SG off the tee score that is net negative or <1.435 per round would take it. Looking at the PGA tour stats for 2021 EVERY tour player including Bryson would take 275 down the middle placed in the fairway. Everyone but the top 26 on tour would take 250 in the middle placed in the fairway. 

 

 

image.png.eb8bed75a5a92099104e50701412716a.png

 

Personally, my SG off the tee is killing me so I would take those for sure! 

Great way to break it down… few observations - from Every shot counts; 210yds from the fairway is 3.25 (not 3.145) and 185yds from the fairway is 3.11 (not 3.0675) so that would reduce the SG from the tee shot…

 

Unless my math doesn’t add up, if we normalize those 14 OTT shots from 460yds (4.17 expected shots to hole out) we can find the break even point at 3.17 shots from the fairway… that is 195yds… gives us a 265yds tee shot that you can drop where you want in the fairway

 

As I said, that is a great objective way to look at it… one that a few members have tried to talked about in this thread and the other one related to it… obviously - it is hole dependent (penal rough or not), time dependent (first tee shot on a Thursday or back nine of a Major) and player related (mental aspect; if the last 8 drives ended up in the recovery zone)… but the idea is to look at it in the long run like you did and like it was meant by the OP

Edited by MtlJayMan
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5 minutes ago, MtlJayMan said:

Great way to break it down… few observations - from Every shot counts; 210yds from the fairway is 3.25 (not 3.145) and 185yds from the fairway is 3.11 (not 3.0675) so that would reduce the SG from the tee shot… and also, your ‘per round’ multiplier has to be 10 and not 18 since you are taking into account only the 10 Par4s (assumed all equal to 460yds) and not all tee shots from these (you could do the same exercise for the normalized Par5s)…

 

As I said, that is a great objective way to look at it… one that a few members have tried to talked about in this thread and the other one related to it… obviously - it is hole dependent (penal rough or not), time dependent (first tee shot on a Thursday or back nine of a Major) and player related (mental aspect; if the last 8 drives ended up in the recovery zone)… but the idea is to look at it in the long run like you did and like it was meant by the OP

Thanks for the corrections. I did use 14 as round multiplier - ie 18 holes less 4 x par 3's as I had made the assumption that we equal out the other holes.

 

Agreed. I myself and fairly long off the tee, my fairway wood carries 275y... that said, I have been spraying the driver and currently (on average) I am better off leaving it in the bag and having a shot and not a penalty or rescue. Now pro's are more accurate but even then, they have a dispersion over time. Over time, if you give me a clean lie and guaranteed distance I focus on my iron play (where you make the biggest gains on Strokes)... anyway, thought it would be good to add some data to the opinion. 

 

Count me in for placing it in the fairway haha.

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1 minute ago, ewaldbeukes said:

Thanks for the corrections. I did use 14 as round multiplier - ie 18 holes less 4 x par 3's as I had made the assumption that we equal out the other holes.

 

Agreed. I myself and fairly long off the tee, my fairway wood carries 275y... that said, I have been spraying the driver and currently (on average) I am better off leaving it in the bag and having a shot and not a penalty or rescue. Now pro's are more accurate but even then, they have a dispersion over time. Over time, if you give me a clean lie and guaranteed distance I focus on my iron play (where you make the biggest gains on Strokes)... anyway, thought it would be good to add some data to the opinion. 

 

Count me in for placing it in the fairway haha.

I have edited my previous post to account for the multiplier (thought you were originally only looking at Par4s)… and added that the break even point would be at 265yds (4.17 - 3.17 ; from 195yds in the fairway)… and I would personally do it also haha 

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