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JGS - Year over Year Improvement


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I realized that I had a list of the Junior Golf Scoreboard rankings from Sept 1st 2021 so I did a quick comparison of year over year movement by the top 200 kids in each class between Sept-2021 and Sept-2022.  As you might expect there is general 1-2 'stroke' improvement in JGS differential as the kids get older but even just keeping that pace means you are likely falling behind.

 

The average JGS improvement by class for a Top 100 kid as of last year:

2023: 0.90

2024: 1.17

2025: 1.74

2026: 1.91

 

JGS Diff _ Sep-2021 vs. Sep-2022.png

Edited by wegobomber31
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16 minutes ago, kcap said:

This is great. I do wish JGS would allow us to download historical ranking and differential.   I made the mistake of not saving/downloading my sons historical numbers.

 

 

 

 

I was told by JGS, and I may still have the email somewhere, that on average once a kid hits their freshman year the scoring differential moves -1.5 a year.  I may be off, but that is what I remember.  

I am GenX.  If you really think I care about what you have to say, I don't.

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On 9/6/2022 at 11:10 AM, wegobomber31 said:

I realized that I had a list of the Junior Golf Scoreboard rankings from Sept 1st 2021 so I did a quick comparison of year over year movement by the top 200 kids in each class between Sept-2021 and Sept-2022.  As you might expect there is general 1-2 'stroke' improvement in JGS differential as the kids get older but even just keeping that pace means you are likely falling behind.

 

The average JGS improvement by class for a Top 100 kid as of last year:

2023: 0.90

2024: 1.17

2025: 1.74

2026: 1.91

 

JGS Diff _ Sep-2021 vs. Sep-2022.png

That’s very insightful. I had done something similar for my son’s graduating class (2026) prior to this year, but that’s interesting to see it across various ages. 
 

my findings for 2026 were essentially that he had to improve by 2.5 strokes to tread water (he was ranked 150/160 in his class heading into this year). 
 

he improved by about 4.3 strokes and moved into the 50 range in his class

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3 minutes ago, Pinewood Golfer said:

That’s very insightful. I had done something similar for my son’s graduating class (2026) prior to this year, but that’s interesting to see it across various ages. 
 

my findings for 2026 were essentially that he had to improve by 2.5 strokes to tread water (he was ranked 150/160 in his class heading into this year). 
 

he improved by about 4.3 strokes and moved into the 50 range in his class

Onward and upward!

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Also somewhat interesting if you do comparison across classes. 
 

the 50th ranked kid in 2026 today would’ve been 34th on the 2025 list a year ago. The 20th ranked kid would be 14th. 
 

the 50th ranked kid in 2025 today would’ve been 35th on the 2024 list a year ago. The 20th ranked kid would be 14th

 

the 50th ranked kid in 2024 today would be 54th on the 2023 list a year ago. The 20th ranked kid would be 27th. 
 

Not sure what to make of it other than the 2023 is pretty strong by comparison. And I think 2026 is pretty strong at the top. 

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17 hours ago, wegobomber31 said:

Also somewhat interesting if you do comparison across classes. 
 

the 50th ranked kid in 2026 today would’ve been 34th on the 2025 list a year ago. The 20th ranked kid would be 14th. 
 

the 50th ranked kid in 2025 today would’ve been 35th on the 2024 list a year ago. The 20th ranked kid would be 14th

 

the 50th ranked kid in 2024 today would be 54th on the 2023 list a year ago. The 20th ranked kid would be 27th. 
 

Not sure what to make of it other than the 2023 is pretty strong by comparison. And I think 2026 is pretty strong at the top. 


JGS hasn’t changed the way they do things in a long time.

 

At 1 time you had to play bigger tournaments to move up the rankings.

 

Now you need to play the correct courses that are easy and have ratings. Play the wrong course and your ranking will suffer.

 

after while you figure this out and play those courses and you gain at least 1-2 on your diff.

 

I don’t like but it just how JGS works.   My personal feeling is this making JGS less important and over the summer i noticed a lot coaches seem to be following a lot higher ranked kids.

 

 

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56 minutes ago, tiger1873 said:


JGS hasn’t changed the way they do things in a long time.

 

At 1 time you had to play bigger tournaments to move up the rankings.

 

Now you need to play the correct courses that are easy and have ratings. Play the wrong course and your ranking will suffer.

 

after while you figure this out and play those courses and you gain at least 1-2 on your diff.

 

I don’t like but it just how JGS works.   My personal feeling is this making JGS less important and over the summer i noticed a lot coaches seem to be following a lot higher ranked kids.

 

 


The JGS course rating for a given round is based on the players scores relative to the differential for the middle 80% of the field coming into the event. So I don’t think playing easy courses helps if it’s easier for everybody — plus I think it’s tougher for anybody to shoot a 60 on a 70 rated course, but you’ll see often see kids shoot 67 or better on a 77 rated course. 

 

A lot of the younger kids see improvement simply moving from local to regional or national tournaments, because often those local tournaments don’t have enough field size or depth to warrant an upward increase in the course rating, even if the course was playing tougher that day. 

 

I actually think most of the improvement comes from players shooting slightly lower scores from increasingly tougher competition. My son improved from 0.99 to -2.74 with essentially the same scoring average as last year. 

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15 minutes ago, wegobomber31 said:


The JGS course rating for a given round is based on the players scores relative to the differential for the middle 80% of the field coming into the event. So I don’t think playing easy courses helps if it’s easier for everybody — plus I think it’s tougher for anybody to shoot a 60 on a 70 rated course, but you’ll see often see kids shoot 67 or better on a 77 rated course. 

 

A lot of the younger kids see improvement simply moving from local to regional or national tournaments, because often those local tournaments don’t have enough field size or depth to warrant an upward increase in the course rating, even if the course was playing tougher that day. 

 

I actually think most of the improvement comes from players shooting slightly lower scores from increasingly tougher competition. My son improved from 0.99 to -2.74 with essentially the same scoring average as last year. 

Yep.  Strength of field on longer courses is what it is about.

I am GenX.  If you really think I care about what you have to say, I don't.

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23 minutes ago, wegobomber31 said:


The JGS course rating for a given round is based on the players scores relative to the differential for the middle 80% of the field coming into the event. So I don’t think playing easy courses helps if it’s easier for everybody — plus I think it’s tougher for anybody to shoot a 60 on a 70 rated course, but you’ll see often see kids shoot 67 or better on a 77 rated course. 

 

A lot of the younger kids see improvement simply moving from local to regional or national tournaments, because often those local tournaments don’t have enough field size or depth to warrant an upward increase in the course rating, even if the course was playing tougher that day. 

 

I actually think most of the improvement comes from players shooting slightly lower scores from increasingly tougher competition. My son improved from 0.99 to -2.74 with essentially the same scoring average as last year. 

 

I think you misunderstood what I am saying. Playing certain higher rated courses almost certainly helps your rankings.  What you want to avoid is the low rated easy course with a low rating. 

 

It's a bigger problem with girls I will see  some courses rated a 77 but the setup is so easy almost the whole field breaks 75.  No rated down or up by JGS either.  Other times I see a super hard course rated 72 and no one can break 80.  With girls you can get wacky setups that doesn't make sense.

 

In other cases the courses are in terrible shape and there is no way your going to score well on those courses.

 

A lot people know this and it's to the point that they only play certain courses.   JGS in my opinion is starting to become.a bit of joke because you see kids ranked 1000 spots higher beating the same kids every time they play against them and they never seem to out rank them.  

 

If JGS doesn't do something there going to become irrelevant in the next few years.

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On 9/6/2022 at 2:56 PM, kcap said:

This is great. I do wish JGS would allow us to download historical ranking and differential.   I made the mistake of not saving/downloading my sons historical numbers.

 

 

 

 

 

You can see rankings in the past by going to the wayback machine  https://web.archive.org

 

 

Attached is the rankings from 2004.   You should be able to see the complete rankings just can't drill into any areas you needed to log into.

 

Screen Shot 2022-09-09 at 10.18.33 AM.png

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17 minutes ago, tiger1873 said:

 

I think you misunderstood what I am saying. Playing certain higher rated courses almost certainly helps your rankings.  What you want to avoid is the low rated easy course with a low rating. 

 

It's a bigger problem with girls I will see  some courses rated a 77 but the setup is so easy almost the whole field breaks 75.  No rated down or up by JGS either.  Other times I see a super hard course rated 72 and no one can break 80.  With girls you can get wacky setups that doesn't make sense.

 

In other cases the courses are in terrible shape and there is no way your going to score well on those courses.

 

A lot people know this and it's to the point that they only play certain courses.   JGS in my opinion is starting to become.a bit of joke because you see kids ranked 1000 spots higher beating the same kids every time they play against them and they never seem to out rank them.  

 

If JGS doesn't do something there going to become irrelevant in the next few years.

I can see how it can be a bigger problem for the girls tournaments. Aside from the setup issues you mentioned, smaller fields will make it tougher to have a statistically significant difference to warrant an adjustment per their methodology. 
 

 

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22 minutes ago, wegobomber31 said:

I can see how it can be a bigger problem for the girls tournaments. Aside from the setup issues you mentioned, smaller fields will make it tougher to have a statistically significant difference to warrant an adjustment per their methodology. 
 

 

 

JGS is a mess for Girls rankings right now.   I think the top 50 or so they adjust manually but everyone else moves up and down like crazy based on a few tournaments. 

 

what's crazy is a field of 5 girls in a random tournament counts basically the same as a Major national tournament.  Some coaches know this and it pretty obvious there tournaments are nothing but a way to help their kids.

 

I heard of small tournaments where every bunker is a free drop and very liberal lift clean and place rules where they play from 6500 yards. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, wegobomber31 said:

I can see how it can be a bigger problem for the girls tournaments. Aside from the setup issues you mentioned, smaller fields will make it tougher to have a statistically significant difference to warrant an adjustment per their methodology. 
 

 

The entire JGS methodology is really bad.  CCA is a failure which helps the rich get richer.  Kids are ranked higher than ever,

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2 minutes ago, heavy_hitter said:

The entire JGS methodology is really bad.  CCA is a failure which helps the rich get richer.  Kids are ranked higher than ever,

 

I totally agree with this. The more you learn about JGS the more upset you become.   At the end of the day it's a improvised handicap system wand there adjusting the rating based on who plays.

 

Imagine if your handicap improved because you played with lower handicap players?  That sort of the easiest way to describe what goes on.

 

Looking back at scores a few years ago for girls I see a 5 diff would be around 1000 ranked and now you need around 2.7 diff..   The kids haven't improved that much in 3 or 4 years.  When the CCA was introduced it punished higher ranked players a lot.

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6 minutes ago, tiger1873 said:

 

I totally agree with this. The more you learn about JGS the more upset you become.   At the end of the day it's a improvised handicap system wand there adjusting the rating based on who plays.

 

Imagine if your handicap improved because you played with lower handicap players?  That sort of the easiest way to describe what goes on.

 

Looking back at scores a few years ago for girls I see a 5 diff would be around 1000 ranked and now you need around 2.7 diff..   The kids haven't improved that much in 3 or 4 years.  When the CCA was introduced it punished higher ranked players a lot.

 

The issue with CCA is it doesn't incorporate human error or human success.  Play in a poor field but shoot a good score and the Course Rating is docked.  Play in a great field and the scores are bad and Course rating is increased as to not hurt the rankings.  It is all based on math and statistics taking in no consideration of the human element.

 

With that said, GolfWeek is still the best ratings system.

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On 9/8/2022 at 1:45 PM, wegobomber31 said:

Also somewhat interesting if you do comparison across classes. 
 

the 50th ranked kid in 2026 today would’ve been 34th on the 2025 list a year ago. The 20th ranked kid would be 14th. 
 

the 50th ranked kid in 2025 today would’ve been 35th on the 2024 list a year ago. The 20th ranked kid would be 14th

 

the 50th ranked kid in 2024 today would be 54th on the 2023 list a year ago. The 20th ranked kid would be 27th. 
 

Not sure what to make of it other than the 2023 is pretty strong by comparison. And I think 2026 is pretty strong at the top. 

That is interesting to me. I haven’t tracked it as closely as you but my gut has told me the ‘26 class is very deep

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5 hours ago, heavy_hitter said:

The entire JGS methodology is really bad.  CCA is a failure which helps the rich get richer.  Kids are ranked higher than ever,

I wouldn’t call it a failure. I think it’s a good start. But there are some flaws in the methodology that lead to the “rich getting richer” outcome you reference. The biggest flaw is their insistence on measuring only the middle 80% of the field. In my opinion, they should measure the entire field and take only the middle 80% of differential delta’s to determine deviation. 
 

I also don’t think there should be any caps in place. If a course plays 10 shots harder then adjust it. Likewise, on the easy side. 
 

I do think the CR Adjustment has made it better than it used to be but it can still be improved

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5 hours ago, heavy_hitter said:

 

The issue with CCA is it doesn't incorporate human error or human success.  Play in a poor field but shoot a good score and the Course Rating is docked.  Play in a great field and the scores are bad and Course rating is increased as to not hurt the rankings.  It is all based on math and statistics taking in no consideration of the human element.

 

With that said, GolfWeek is still the best ratings system.

There’s also an issue with the fact that it doesn’t consider the natural improvement of players as they age. Therefore, when you play in age specific fields (14U, for example), you’ll never get an accurate measurement of whether or not the course played more difficult than its CR because the players used for the sample are, on the whole, significantly better than they were over the course of the previous 12 months that form the baseline

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1 minute ago, Pinewood Golfer said:

I wouldn’t call it a failure. I think it’s a good start. But there are some flaws in the methodology that lead to the “rich getting richer” outcome you reference. The biggest flaw is their insistence on measuring only the middle 80% of the field. In my opinion, they should measure the entire field and take only the middle 80% of differential delta’s to determine deviation. 
 

I also don’t think there should be any caps in place. If a course plays 10 shots harder then adjust it. Likewise, on the easy side. 
 

I do think the CR Adjustment has made it better than it used to be but it can still be improved

If USGA rates a course at a 72 then it is a 72.  I don’t see the need for adjustment based on what the field shoots, which is exactly what it is.  Then it is adjusted based on the strength of the field.  
 

My biggest issue is them decreasing the course rating based on a field shooting better than what that field should shoot.  USGA rated that course, that is what the rating is and JGS is arbitrarily decreasing that rating because “the field shouldn’t shoot that”.  That is utter nonsense.

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15 hours ago, Pinewood Golfer said:

That is interesting to me. I haven’t tracked it as closely as you but my gut has told me the ‘26 class is very deep

The class of 2023 is deep.  2024 is to heavy but not a deep class.   2025 has some real studs at the top.

Edited by heavy_hitter
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The JGS is confusing from time to time.....or should I say it can be.   My son is a 2023 kid.   Was a top 600 kid back in the spring.   Went thru a grip change and had a couple of rough tournaments.   Shot up the JGS last year when he played really well and was a top 5 in his first ever AJGA event.   Won the Belle Meade Jr in Nashville.   Won a tournament on the Sneds Tour in Florida the week after Christmas.   Played 2 rounds at Bay Point in PCB...won by 6 and lost ranking points in the JGS.  The rating can be and is often adjusted.  I am not sure what drives that.   I still have not figured that out.  All I know is that you have to score below whatever the RATING is for the course.   I have figured out that you have to find tournaments that will have a rating that will bring lower scores.   We didn't do that this year.   He played in the Bubba, TN Jr Am.   Sneds Elite tournaments.   We are registered for the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans this year.  You have to get them in front of coaches.   He caught fire in the Choo Choo Invitational here in Chattanooga in July.   He had gotten to -1 after 36 holes and flirted with the top 10 thru those 2 rounds.   That is what I believe led to his offer and commitment to a D1 school.   Competition is where it is.   We are fortunate here in Tennessee to have a great Jr program across the state.   But you still have to get your kids out there in front of coaches.   My only advice to parents is simply this.   Encourage them.   Don't ever let them see you get discouraged with their play.   

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Ryan Frazer runs a site called Agora Golf. He provides ranking information to colleges that helps them with recruiting. Take a look at his website. He shows the different teams from each conference and breaks down their rosters. It shows where they were ranked as freshmen in HS all they way though their senior year in JGSB. Interesting to see how some of these players were really good early on while others were late bloomers.

 

http://www.agoragolf.com/

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3 hours ago, leezer99 said:

What's the sweet spot for yardage and rating/slope to maximize the Scoring Differential on JGS?

I know the mechanics of the JGS adjustments but I don’t really know how you game it. The one thing is you need enough sample size in order for them to warrant a stroke adjustment, so this can be an issue particularly in younger divisions with less kids. And they cut-off the adjustment at +4 so one could argue that some rounds might’ve actually played tougher than that if the cap hadn’t existed, thus penalizing the kids instead. 
 

I think in general you see a big jump in JGS in the 13-14 range into that 14-15 year as kids likely go up against deeper competition, assuming they have the game to back it up. It’s easier for a kid to shoot 72 in a 77.5 rated event than it is to shoot 64 in a 69.5 rated event, though JGS treats them the same. 

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7 hours ago, wegobomber31 said:

I know the mechanics of the JGS adjustments but I don’t really know how you game it. The one thing is you need enough sample size in order for them to warrant a stroke adjustment, so this can be an issue particularly in younger divisions with less kids. And they cut-off the adjustment at +4 so one could argue that some rounds might’ve actually played tougher than that if the cap hadn’t existed, thus penalizing the kids instead. 
 

I think in general you see a big jump in JGS in the 13-14 range into that 14-15 year as kids likely go up against deeper competition, assuming they have the game to back it up. It’s easier for a kid to shoot 72 in a 77.5 rated event than it is to shoot 64 in a 69.5 rated event, though JGS treats them the same. 

The math can’t be “gamed”. But if you understand the math you can select fields that have the highest likelihood of meeting the statistical requirements for the adjustment to kick in. 
 

the key is for the middle 80% to have as small difference in differential from top to bottom is possible. This makes the expected scoring range as compact as possible. 
 

if you have 20 ranked players in the field where the middle 80% range from a -1.00 diff to an 11.00 diff then the math is tougher than a field where you have the middle 80% range from, say, 0.00-5.00. 

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