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24 hours to hit a hole in one from 125 yards - $10 million if you do, but 1 year in jail if you don't...


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1) I got this!

2) 3 hours in you're getting tired.

3) Now frustrated cause you're now tired and have not dunked one.

4) The thought starts sinking in you could seriously be going to jail for a year.

5) Then panic.....

 

Ill pass. 

 

*EDIT* Looking at my bills stacking up. Is that $10MM tax free?

Edited by rockinar
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Which jail though?

 

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6 hours ago, RSinSG said:

Hahaha. No, I’m definitely not a lawyer. My son is a county prosecutor but he’s actually one of the few attorneys whose company I can abide.

 

No, my experience in jails and prisons comes fro a 30 year LEO career. When I was a detective I had to interview inmates numerous times in both venues and like I said I would never put myself in a situation that had the slightest possibility of making me a resident.

 

And congrats on adding a lot of qualifiers to the OP like home detention. I think the OP’s premise was - win $10M or go to jail for a year, meaning you will be in custody for a year- freedom and rights gone. Adding any other variables changes the OP, but you knew that.

...well if you mean "crappy jail" then no I wouldn't like that at all.   But I still would love the chance to try!   LOL  🙂 

 

God bless you and your son for serving law enforcement.  

 

In this day and age of cancel culture, and extreme disrespect for law enforcement officers - god bless the both of you.  F anyone who says different.   

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This is the guy you want to play against the next day in a money match for $10 million. After hitting 5,000 shots to get his hole-in-one he's got nothing left. On the other hand if he makes the ace in his first 50 shots...

 

 

 

Edited by Double Mocha Man

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I think the odds are a little different than some people are posting.  It’s 2500-1 for a PGA tour pro to make a hole-in-one on a random hole on tour. Most of the holes are 175 to 230. 

    If you give him a bucket of 2500 balls and 125 yards shot to the same flag time after time I’m assuming the odds would significantly improve in his favor. Probably getting closer to 500 to 1.

    I used to personally hit over 1000 shots a day on the driving range day after day after day.  Never got remotely tired doing it… And once in a bet, I hit 2500 just to prove I could. But I was 24 then, not 49. That’s basically one ball every 10 seconds for 10 hours with a few breaks. 
      Wedges are still the best part of my game. I feel like I’d have a close to 100%  chance of holing  one when I was 24. Maybe closer to 50 percent chance now. 
 

Thoughts on the actual odds from 125(not random yardage) for a current plus 2 if I can get in 1500 shots?? And again, remember, 125 is significantly different from 175 to 230 

Assuming the green was fairly flat/soft and there was no wind. 

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2 hours ago, italianstallion said:

I'd take the bet. A chance at $10M and being set for life is worth the risk. 125 yards is also a perfectly smooth 50* wedge for me, so I'm confident I'd get one of those balls on line within 24 hours.

Similar numbers here. 125 is right in between my 50 and 54 (120/130). But my wedges are sky balls that typically come to rest very close to the ball mark. I could hit great shots all day and never drop one. 
 

I think I’d need an unprotected pin with no trouble in front where I could run a bunch of pitchy 7 irons up and hope one rolls in. Still doubt I could pull it off. 
 

Hard pass for me but it would be fun to try under different circumstances (charity challenge, etc.). 

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On 9/18/2022 at 10:36 AM, ND2005 said:

How many swings do people actually think they could make in 24 hours before fatigue and/or injury sink in. 

 

Anyone who would take that bet has a terrible understanding of statistics (as well as practicality). 


I used to hit 2 jumbo buckets in one practice session about 10 years ago. 340 balls. I'd be there 3-4 hours. Some would just be 50 yard chips, which I could rattle off pretty quick. I was fairly used to it, but would be pretty tired at the end.

 

Figuring I'm not staying up for 24 hours, and have a 16 hour window of time, I'm thinking I could hit about 1000 balls with breaks built in. But how bad the swing gets after a those 340 balls would yet to be seen.

 

I'd have to prep for something like this. No way I could hit 340 in one go anymore.

 

 

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41 minutes ago, larrybud said:

Figuring I'm not staying up for 24 hours...

 

I'd stay up 24 hours for $10 million.  Besides, that would buy you a pretty nice bed, in a pretty nice house, with the sound of crashing waves on the beach to lull you to sleep.

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On 9/18/2022 at 9:36 AM, ND2005 said:

How many swings do people actually think they could make in 24 hours before fatigue and/or injury sink in. 

 

Anyone who would take that bet has a terrible understanding of statistics (as well as practicality). 

You forget, this is GolfWRX, home of 350 yard drives and hole outs!

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On 9/18/2022 at 12:26 PM, Rosco1216 said:

 Need to add a handicap poll to this. 

 

I'm a 0.1 and I wouldn't do it, but it's as much to do with spending a year in jail and the associated costs would be a  worse low than winning 10M would be a high. 

 

It's not just a statistics thing to me anyway. Like even if I think my odds are 75% of doing it, I wouldn't 

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2 minutes ago, MtlJeff said:

 

I'm a 0.1 and I wouldn't do it, but it's as much to do with spending a year in jail and the associated costs would be a  worse low than winning 10M would be a high. 

 

It's not just a statistics thing to me anyway. Like even if I think my odds are 75% of doing it, I wouldn't 

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1 minute ago, Rosco1216 said:

That’s because you don’t want anyone else driving your truck!

 

My wife would probably get it in the inevitable divorce lol.

 

But at least I'd be single in prison!

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7 hours ago, larrybud said:

To the few of you who would take this bet:

 

What do you think your odds of succeeding are?

 

My gut is telling me something like 25%-35% likelihood, but it could be more, even up to 50-60% for a good player young enough to swing thousands of times repetitively at the same hole.

 

We also have to keep in mind that a bet doesn't have to exceed 50/50 probability to be worthwhile if the upside-vs-downside is in our favor.

 

In this case, the benefits far outweigh the potential of having to spend the next year in a cell reading books. We're talking about the possibility of never working again and never having any debt for the rest of your life all while being able to upgrade your quality of life in semi-luxurious ways. 

 

To frame things, I'm 36yo and this would be a Pw shot for me. Spending a year in jail at my age is nothing (considering the potential upside) and I have no physical limitations that would stop me from swinging the Pw 1-2k times. Heck, I could check down to a 9i or 8i as I got tired if I needed to. 

 

Again, we're talking about life-changing money. A year in jail is NOT going to ruin your life and if you're a half-way motivated person that year can be spent doing a lot of productive things. 

 

To me, I would almost be dying to sign up for an opportunity like this.

 

Plus, I also think people are over-dramatizing the time interval. 24-hours is a long time wherein periods of rest (even sleep) could easily be worked in. Imagine starting at 5pm and hitting balls for 3 hours before resting and coming back early in the morning. You'd still have a full day between 5am - 5pm. 

 

Endlessly hitting Pw to the same hole with a chance to never work again with the "punishment" being a year off from work? Yes please!!!

 

 

Edited by MelloYello
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23 minutes ago, MelloYello said:

 

My gut is telling me something like 25%-35% likelihood, but it could be more, even up to 50-60% for a good player young enough to swing thousands of times repetitively at the same hole.

 

We also have to keep in mind that a bet doesn't have to exceed 50/50 probability to be worthwhile if the upside-vs-downside is in our favor.

 

In this case, the benefits far outweigh the potential of having to spend the next year in a cell reading books. We're talking about the possibility of never working again and never having any debt for the rest of your life all while being able to upgrade your quality of life in semi-luxurious ways. 

 

To frame things, I'm 36yo and this would be a Pw shot for me. Spending a year in jail at my age is nothing (considering the potential upside) and I have no physical limitations that would stop me from swinging the Pw 1-2k times. Heck, I could check down to a 9i or 8i as I got tired if I needed to. 

 

Again, we're talking about life-changing money. A year in jail is NOT going to ruin your life and if you're a half-way motivated person that year can be spent doing a lot of productive things. 

 

To me, I would almost be dying to sign up for an opportunity like this.

 

Plus, I also think people are over-dramatizing the time interval. 24-hours is a long time wherein periods of rest (even sleep) could easily be worked in. Imagine starting at 5pm and hitting balls for 3 hours before resting and coming back early in the morning. You'd still have a full day between 5am - 5pm. 

 

Endlessly hitting Pw to the same hole with a chance to never work again with the "punishment" being a year off from work? Yes please!!!

 

 

 

I think you might be discounting the seriousness and depression of being in jail/prison.  You end up with very few rights.  Sheesh, you can't even wake up one beautiful, sunny morning and decide you want to play golf...

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My wife would kill me if i tried, but if I won i’d get 10mil and she’d be thrilled, or if I lose i’m in jail for a year so at least I postpone that 365 days... 😂

 

And a quick thought on the Hole in One stats... have to imagine that is looking at all golfers on all pars 3’s in a given timeframe. So those odds would include everything from a 36 handicap on a 200yd par 3 over water and a +2 on a 110yd par 3 with the pin in a bowl. Just seems like a low handicap from 125 would have better odds of holing out than 1/12,000ish. 🤷🏻‍♂️

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Would there be someone clearing balls off the green and supplying me with new balls?  If I’m having to do that, then hard no.  If I can just focus on hitting then it becomes a lot more tempting. 

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37 minutes ago, dugue4 said:

Would there be someone clearing balls off the green and supplying me with new balls?  If I’m having to do that, then hard no.  If I can just focus on hitting then it becomes a lot more tempting. 

 

My assumption would be that there would be a kid clearing the green like the kid on the professional tennis courts picking up loose balls.

 

With respect to balls that you're hitting I'm sure you would be supplied with the world's largest pyramid of new Titleists to hit.

 

Also, another thought. What if you like to tee up your ball... then that's going to slow you down and kill your back.

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You could tell me that if I didn't make a hole in 1, I'd have to spend a year in jail but still get the $10 million when I get out. That would still be a hard pass.

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On 9/16/2022 at 7:12 AM, stimpmeterp said:

Saw this on Instagram (credit to golfdouchebag).  You have 24 hours to hit a hole-in-one on a 125 yard par 3.  You get unlimited shots.  If you succeed you get $10 million.  If you fail, you are going to jail for a year.  

Are you doing it?

 

A lot of people replied that it's a no-brainer take the money kind of thing.  But in reality, that could be the longest day of your life.  What if you get the sh**ks?  

I'll pass but what would you do?

Par 3 contest at Augusta I’m doing 100 times out of 100!

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9 hours ago, Double Mocha Man said:

 

Also, another thought. What if you like to tee up your ball... then that's going to slow you down and kill your back.

Yea, there would be no way I’m using a tee except for the first swing. 

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