Jump to content

24 hours to hit a hole in one from 125 yards - $10 million if you do, but 1 year in jail if you don't...


stimpmeterp
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, dugue4 said:

Yea, there would be no way I’m using a tee except for the first swing. 

 

Not to mention, since you're playing the ball down there will be a divot after every shot. Meaning the hole will be changing on you as you move back or forward on the tee box, and left or right.  We're talking 5,000 divots.  And pockmarks all over the green that your ball has to negotiate.

3.0 GHIN Index - trending down

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, Double Mocha Man said:

 

I think you might be discounting the seriousness and depression of being in jail/prison.  You end up with very few rights.  Sheesh, you can't even wake up one beautiful, sunny morning and decide you want to play golf...

 

I think the risk really comes down to age and you might be someone who's older than me, IDK. The upside of this can completely change life (and that of someone's family and even their descendants) if we're talking about someone under the age of 50yo.

 

For someone in their 20s or 30s? Heck, it'd be an all-encompassing change and it would lift them out of being working class entirely. Even the most successful young people I know still work and none make 7 figures per year. All will be working for decades. 

 

So my retort would be that I think you're underestimating the importance of money, especially money early in life. For instance, $10M would easily outweigh the emotional cost of never swinging a golf club again. I'm talking about being financially independent and permanently debt-free and you're comparing that to the supposed importance of a Saturday morning round of golf?! 

 

Why would I value a mere hobby over the chance to never work again and to dictate the terms of my life from here out? There are plenty of other hobbies to take golf's place. And btw, why is giving up golf for a year that bad anyway? I think you're vastly over-dramatizing the importance of maintaining social freedom. A year? You can't do without a year? Really? 

 

 

TSR3 (9o) (Graphite Design Tour AD IZ-6)
M6 (17o / 210) (Diamana Blueboard)

zX (4-5) (UST Recoil)
Z-Forged (6-P) (Nippon Modus3)
SM6 50-F / 56-F / 60-S
Odyssey 2-Ball

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Double Mocha Man said:

 

Not to mention, since you're playing the ball down there will be a divot after every shot. Meaning the hole will be changing on you as you move back or forward on the tee box, and left or right.  We're talking 5,000 divots.  And pockmarks all over the green that your ball has to negotiate.

 

Hit off a soft mat and onto a brand new bermuda green whereupon pitch marks are virtually non-existent. 

 

Boom -- Problem solved. 

TSR3 (9o) (Graphite Design Tour AD IZ-6)
M6 (17o / 210) (Diamana Blueboard)

zX (4-5) (UST Recoil)
Z-Forged (6-P) (Nippon Modus3)
SM6 50-F / 56-F / 60-S
Odyssey 2-Ball

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How can we simulate this?  Serious question.  No money or jail time but I want to see this in person and I'm willing to volunteer time to watch!  

 

I'll even clean balls for an hour shift.  

  • Like 1

Titleist TSi2 9°

Honma TR21 15° 18° 21°H 

TEE E722 / C722 6-G | Callaway JAWS 54, 58

Tad Moore Custom Pro1 Longneck 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, MelloYello said:

 

My gut is telling me something like 25%-35% likelihood, but it could be more, even up to 50-60% for a good player young enough to swing thousands of times repetitively at the same hole.

 

We also have to keep in mind that a bet doesn't have to exceed 50/50 probability to be worthwhile if the upside-vs-downside is in our favor.


I agree the odds don't necessarily be have to exceed 50/50, but I think you're grossly overestimating the probability of success. 

 

Ever see the DP World Tour "500 balls to make an ace" videos? I realize that's not a 24 hr period, but I would think for a tour pro 500 balls is more likely than an amateur over 24 hours, because I really don't think the am is going to have more than 1000 good chances due to fatigue, and so far, nobody in this series has made one!
 

 

Edited by larrybud
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, MelloYello said:

I'm talking about being financially independent and permanently debt-free

 

Sounds to me like you're a young guy (I'm probably not that much older than you) and you're already experiencing some debt... credit cards, maybe a mortgage, college debt, a car loan and that $2 Nassau you still owe your golfing buddy.

3.0 GHIN Index - trending down

Link to comment
Share on other sites

golf is a sport of stats to me. if an ace within 125yd has NOT happened in the last 20 yrs, pretty solid chance it will NOT happen in the next 24 hours. heck, i'm going to be drunk in 2 holes. heck i'd throw my pitching wedge into the pond after a few misses. no way. 

Edited by orangeology

__

 

DR Callie Epic Flash 💎💎💎 8.5º TC + Ventus Black TR 5X

3W Callaway Rogue SZ TC 14.7º + LAGP House of Forged Platinum 70S 

HYB Royal Collection 505V BBD #2 18º + NS PRO 950FW X

DI Nike VFP 4 + KBS Tour Hyb Prototype 95X 

IRONS Callie X Forged 2013 5-PW MMT 95S

WEDGES Scratch 8620 47º, 50º, 55º STI 60º, Edel 60º

PUTTERS Nike Method 001 • Edel The "Gold" Brick 1/100

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The high probability of jail not worth it based on my current life situation.

 

Would you guys do it if the person who was hitting the shots was a Tour player and you get $10 million if he/she makes it but you go to jail if he/she does not? Like what if you could have a prime Moe Norman hitting the shots on your behalf. 

Edited by dlow206
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, larrybud said:


I agree the odds don't necessarily be have to exceed 50/50, but I think you're grossly overestimating the probability of success. 

 

Ever see the DP World Tour "500 balls to make an ace" videos? I realize that's not a 24 hr period, but I would think for a tour pro 500 balls is more likely than an amateur over 24 hours, because I really don't think the am is going to have more than 1000 good chances due to fatigue, and so far, nobody in this series has made one!
 

 

I mean you just posted one where he makes it on his 200 something ball. At 171y it is probably a 7i and was getting zero roll or back spin so less chance for the ball to roll in than a shot that releases or backs up a bit. This is a much, much more difficult shot to hole. 
 

I’ve never had a traditional hole in one on a normal 18 hole course but I lived in an apartment complex for a summer that had an executive 9 hole par 3 course. All holes were between 90 and 140 and I made 3 HIO’s in the span of less than 3 weeks the first month I was there. I don’t count them for myself because, well, i feel a flip gap or pitching wedge over and over again is going to go in a few times.  Just this summer when warming up before a couple stroke play tournaments i would go to our practice hole before teeing off and would hit 5 shots each from a couple spots between 75 and 130y to dial in wedges. I recall making at least 2 and guarantee I didn’t hit many more than 100 cumulative shots the handful of times I did that and wedges are not a strong part of my game. 


 

TSR2 @7.25* - Diamana GT 60tx

TSI2 3w @14.25* - Tensei 1k Black 75tx
Cobra King Tec 2h @17* - AV Raw White 9x
Cobra King CB 4-P - $taper 130x

Mizuno t7 50* - KBS black 130x
Edel SMS 55* & 60* - KBS black 130x

Lajosi Sensor WB custom

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Rosco1216 said:

I mean you just posted one where he makes it on his 200 something ball. At 171y it is probably a 7i and was getting zero roll or back spin so less chance for the ball to roll in than a shot that releases or backs up a bit. This is a much, much more difficult shot to hole. 

 

 

There's like 10 other videos with no makes!

 

I also think people are greatly overestimating the number of quality swings they could hit in this time period.

Edited by larrybud
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, larrybud said:


I agree the odds don't necessarily be have to exceed 50/50, but I think you're grossly overestimating the probability of success. 

 

Ever see the DP World Tour "500 balls to make an ace" videos? I realize that's not a 24 hr period, but I would think for a tour pro 500 balls is more likely than an amateur over 24 hours, because I really don't think the am is going to have more than 1000 good chances due to fatigue, and so far, nobody in this series has made one!
 

 

It's so impressive that after coming up SOOOOOO close he came back up and aced it on his third shot after.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Double Mocha Man said:

 

Sounds to me like you're a young guy (I'm probably not that much older than you) and you're already experiencing some debt... credit cards, maybe a mortgage, college debt, a car loan and that $2 Nassau you still owe your golfing buddy.

 

Yeah, I'm 36you and I'm working class. Don't get me wrong, there are far worse things to do than be an engineer but I'd quit my job in a heartbeat if I could. The only debt I have is a mortgage but working still sucks and the fact I have to do it for decades to come is depressing AF. 

 

Nobody with a real job actually wants to work. If you're blessed enough such that $10M wouldn't change your life, cheers to you.

Edited by MelloYello

TSR3 (9o) (Graphite Design Tour AD IZ-6)
M6 (17o / 210) (Diamana Blueboard)

zX (4-5) (UST Recoil)
Z-Forged (6-P) (Nippon Modus3)
SM6 50-F / 56-F / 60-S
Odyssey 2-Ball

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Murphy76 said:

 

On what charge would you be sent to prison for?   That could make a HUGE difference.

 

An average person could easily do a 1-year stretch for burglary.

 

Not so much for being a pedophile....

 

 

 

LOL, that would make this more interesting. 

 

If you make a HOI, you get $10M. 

 

If you miss, you get wrongfully-convicted of a horrible crime for which you get a 1-year sentence. 😂

TSR3 (9o) (Graphite Design Tour AD IZ-6)
M6 (17o / 210) (Diamana Blueboard)

zX (4-5) (UST Recoil)
Z-Forged (6-P) (Nippon Modus3)
SM6 50-F / 56-F / 60-S
Odyssey 2-Ball

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, larrybud said:

 

There's like 10 other videos with no makes!

 

I also think people are greatly overestimating the number of quality swings they could hit in this time period.

 

No offense, but it depends on the distance in question (which here is 125-yd) as well as the age, health and overall quality of player. 

 

Give a skilled golfer who's in good health a full day to hole-out with a Pw from the same spot taking shots over and over and I think he's got a very good chance of making it. 

TSR3 (9o) (Graphite Design Tour AD IZ-6)
M6 (17o / 210) (Diamana Blueboard)

zX (4-5) (UST Recoil)
Z-Forged (6-P) (Nippon Modus3)
SM6 50-F / 56-F / 60-S
Odyssey 2-Ball

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Jefff said:

i would need to have rights to inspect green and hole.  then its a yes

 

What if you walk up to find it's a classic turtleback green? 😂

TSR3 (9o) (Graphite Design Tour AD IZ-6)
M6 (17o / 210) (Diamana Blueboard)

zX (4-5) (UST Recoil)
Z-Forged (6-P) (Nippon Modus3)
SM6 50-F / 56-F / 60-S
Odyssey 2-Ball

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, MK7Golf21 said:

bunch of weak white golfers thinking 1 year of jail would be cake walk, no thanks. Would ruin the rest of your life. I'm not sure I could make a hole in 1 from 125 yards in 1 day. I have spent many hours on the range hitting at flags and pretty much never make any.

 

I have a friend (good guy) who, on different occasions has spent a total of about 30 days in jail.  He absolutely hated, hated it.  And he's a very adaptable guy, who loves camping out and roughing it.

3.0 GHIN Index - trending down

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Double Mocha Man said:

 

I have a friend (good guy) who, on different occasions has spent a total of about 30 days in jail.  He absolutely hated, hated it.  And he's a very adaptable guy, who loves camping out and roughing it.

 

yea, that's what I have heard. Even short amounts of time like 30-60 days is rough and life changing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, MK7Golf21 said:

 

yea, that's what I have heard. Even short amounts of time like 30-60 days is rough and life changing.

 

I couldn't agree more.  These guys who are thinking a year in jail is no big deal need to volunteer for a week in jail... their tone will quickly change.

3.0 GHIN Index - trending down

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/19/2022 at 8:02 PM, Double Mocha Man said:

 

I think you might be discounting the seriousness and depression of being in jail/prison.  You end up with very few rights.  Sheesh, you can't even wake up one beautiful, sunny morning and decide you want to play golf...

 

Didn't you just post in another thread that you'd never play outdoor golf again if simulators were to find a better way to replicate on-course lies? These days some prisons might even have a golf sim as an "amenity". 

 

Now, the above isn't to say that I disagree with your point. While I'd think my odds are better than most I'd really need to read the fine print for the challenge. Will my time in the clink have any impact on my criminal record? Will work allow a leave of absence to do my time if I fail? Can I get an early release if I agree to repair all my pitch marks?

 

While enticing, the more I think about it, the more confident I am that I'd pass. Back in the day, me and my buddies would often close out our "caddy monday" days doing different challenges. To include 100-ish yard hole out contests. We were all solid players. And more often than not, we'd collectively come up empty. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • Our picks

    • 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am - Discussion and Links to all photos
      Please put any questions or comments here
       
       
       
      General Albums
       
       
       
      WITB Albums
       
      Lanto Griffin - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Charles Kelley WITB (country singer from Lady A band) – 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Ben Silverman - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Jonas Blixt - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Fabian Gomez - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Alfonso Ribeiro (Carlton from Fresh Prince of BelAir) - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Seung Yul Noh - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Beau Hossler - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Danny Willett - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      JB Holmes - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Harry Higgs - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Kevin Kisner - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Kira Dixon - Golf Channel reporter - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Michael Pena, actor - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
       
       
       
      Pullout Albums
       
      Kyle Westmoreland - custom Hzrdus driver and fairwood shafts - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Cameron putters - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      TaylorMade Max putters - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      LA Golf Malibu X putter - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Pebble Beach 18th Hole walking tour (and inside "The Lodge") – 2023 AT&T Pebble Pro-Am
       
       
       
       
        • Like
      • 13 replies
    • 2023 Farmers Insurance Open - Discussion and Links to all photos
      Please put any questions or Comments here
       
       
       
      General Albums
       
       
      2023 Farmers Insurance Open - Monday #1
      2023 Farmers Insurance Open - Monday #2
      2023 Farmers Insurance Open - Monday #3
       
       
       
       
      WITB Albums
       
      Justin Thomas - WITB - 2023 Farmers Insurance Open
      Will Zalatoris - WITB - 2023 Farmers Insurance Open
      Michael Herrera - WITB - 2023 Farmers Insurance Open
      Michael Block - SoCal PGA Section Champ - WITB - 2023 Farmers Insurance Open
      Carl Yuan - WITB - 2023 Farmers Insurance Open
      Joey Vrzich - WITB - 2023 Farmers Insurance Open
       
       
       
      Pullout Albums
       
      New Taylor-Made putters - 2023 Farmers Insurance Open
       
       
       
       
        • Like
      • 6 replies
    • 2023 The American Express - Discussion and Links
      Please put any questions or comment here
       
       
       
      General Albums
       
      2023 The American Express - Monday #1
      2023 The American Express - Monday #2
       
       
       
      WITB Albums
       
      Justin Lower - WITB - 2023 The American Express
      Doug Ghim - WITB - 2023 The American Express
      Sam Burns - WITB - 2023 The American Express
      Caleb Surratt - WITB - 2023 The American Express
      Aaron Wise - WITB - 2023 The American Express
       
       
       
       
       
      Pullout Albums
       
       
      New Cameron putter - 2023 The American Express
      Cameron putters - - 2023 The American Express
      New Bettinardi prototype putters - 2023 The American Express
      New L.A.B. Golf LINK.1 putter - 2023 The American Express
      New Evnroll putters - 2023 The American Express
      Jimmy Walker testing the Axis prototype putter - 2023 The American Express
      Cameron CT Baller Boy covers - 2023 The American Express
      Richy Werenski's Cameron Timeless putter - 2023 The American Express
      Graphite Design - CQ 6 & CQ 7 shafts - 2023 The American Express
      Titleist TRS hybrids - 2023 The American Express
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
      • 11 replies
    • In-hand photos of 2023 TaylorMade Stealth 2 Plus, Stealth 2, Stealth 2 HD drivers + fairways woods
      Check out our front page launch stories here and here. 
       
      What you need to know: For the first time, carbon is the most prevalent material by volume in a TaylorMade driver, and more carbon equals better performance, says the company. Last year, TaylorMade debuted a 60X Carbon Twist Face. With TaylorMade Stealth 2, engineers are bringing carbon to more of the golf club — and unveiling a new-and-improved Carbon Twist Face in the process. Stealth 2 Plus (low spin, most workable) Stealth 2, and Stealth 2 HD (draw bias, high launch, most forgiving) drivers make up the Stealth 2 family.
       
      Stealth 2 


       
      Stealth 2 Plus


       
      Stealth 2 HD



       
      What you need to know: Breakthrough movable weight technologies and versatile designs are the hallmarks of the 2023 TaylorMade Stealth 2 fairway woods. Stealth 2 Plus is branded as “three fairway woods in one” owing to the unique performance characteristics afforded by the 50-gram sole weight. Stealth 2 features a slightly lower profile 3D carbon crown than Stealth. This moves CG down and away from the toe with more weight in the rear of the club for higher launch and MOI. Ultra-high MOI Stealth 2 HD features an oversized 200cc head and low-profile sole, creating an easy-to-hit, draw-biased club.
       
      Stealth 2 fairway


       
      Stealth 2 Plus fairway


       
       


       
        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 47 replies
    • 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions - Discussion
      Please put any equipment questions or comments here
       
      More albums will be added tomorrow
       
       
       
      General Albums
       
      2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua – Tues. Pt. 1
       
       
      WITB Albums
       
      Jon Rahm mini WITB (w/ new Callaway Paradym Triple Diamond driver and fairway woods) – 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
      Ryan Brehm WITB – 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
       
       
      Pullout Albums
       
      SuperStroke Limited Edition Hawaii Collection covers and grips – 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
      Collin Morikawa's new TaylorMade Stealth 2 Plus driver and 3 wood – 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
      Xander Schauffele's new Callaway Paradym Triple Diamond driver – 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
      Xander Schauffele's Odyssey Toulon "XS Proto" mallet putter – 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
      New Odyssey White Hot Versa and Tri-Hot 5K putters – 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
      Sungjae Im's Scotty Cameron Tourtype F-5 proto putter (with new SuperStroke Zenergy 1.0 PT grip) – 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
      Scottie Scheffler's new TaylorMade Stealth 2 Plus driver and Stealth 2 fairway wood – 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
       
       
       
       
       
       
       

       
        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 83 replies

×
×
  • Create New...