24 hours to hit a hole in one from 125 yards - $10 million if you do, but 1 year in jail if you don't...

[Double Mocha Man]

1 hour ago, dugue4 said:

Yea, there would be no way I’m using a tee except for the first swing. 

 

Not to mention, since you're playing the ball down there will be a divot after every shot. Meaning the hole will be changing on you as you move back or forward on the tee box, and left or right.  We're talking 5,000 divots.  And pockmarks all over the green that your ball has to negotiate.

[golfortennis]

My question is, what makes a person come up with this kind of stuff?

 

Nope.

[MelloYello]

14 hours ago, Double Mocha Man said:

 

I think you might be discounting the seriousness and depression of being in jail/prison.  You end up with very few rights.  Sheesh, you can't even wake up one beautiful, sunny morning and decide you want to play golf...

 

I think the risk really comes down to age and you might be someone who's older than me, IDK. The upside of this can completely change life (and that of someone's family and even their descendants) if we're talking about someone under the age of 50yo.

 

For someone in their 20s or 30s? Heck, it'd be an all-encompassing change and it would lift them out of being working class entirely. Even the most successful young people I know still work and none make 7 figures per year. All will be working for decades. 

 

So my retort would be that I think you're underestimating the importance of money, especially money early in life. For instance, $10M would easily outweigh the emotional cost of never swinging a golf club again. I'm talking about being financially independent and permanently debt-free and you're comparing that to the supposed importance of a Saturday morning round of golf?! 

 

Why would I value a mere hobby over the chance to never work again and to dictate the terms of my life from here out? There are plenty of other hobbies to take golf's place. And btw, why is giving up golf for a year that bad anyway? I think you're vastly over-dramatizing the importance of maintaining social freedom. A year? You can't do without a year? Really? 

 

 

[MelloYello]

1 hour ago, Double Mocha Man said:

 

Not to mention, since you're playing the ball down there will be a divot after every shot. Meaning the hole will be changing on you as you move back or forward on the tee box, and left or right.  We're talking 5,000 divots.  And pockmarks all over the green that your ball has to negotiate.

 

Hit off a soft mat and onto a brand new bermuda green whereupon pitch marks are virtually non-existent. 

 

Boom -- Problem solved. 

[dropkicked]

Take the bet. Hit 124 balls then DQ from injury... can't finish so bet is off, right?

🙂

[stimpmeterp]

How can we simulate this?  Serious question.  No money or jail time but I want to see this in person and I'm willing to volunteer time to watch!  

 

I'll even clean balls for an hour shift.  

[larrybud]

16 hours ago, MelloYello said:

 

My gut is telling me something like 25%-35% likelihood, but it could be more, even up to 50-60% for a good player young enough to swing thousands of times repetitively at the same hole.

 

We also have to keep in mind that a bet doesn't have to exceed 50/50 probability to be worthwhile if the upside-vs-downside is in our favor.

I agree the odds don't necessarily be have to exceed 50/50, but I think you're grossly overestimating the probability of success. 

 

Ever see the DP World Tour "500 balls to make an ace" videos? I realize that's not a 24 hr period, but I would think for a tour pro 500 balls is more likely than an amateur over 24 hours, because I really don't think the am is going to have more than 1000 good chances due to fatigue, and so far, nobody in this series has made one!
 

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by larrybud

[Double Mocha Man]

1 hour ago, MelloYello said:

I'm talking about being financially independent and permanently debt-free

 

Sounds to me like you're a young guy (I'm probably not that much older than you) and you're already experiencing some debt... credit cards, maybe a mortgage, college debt, a car loan and that $2 Nassau you still owe your golfing buddy.

[orangeology]

golf is a sport of stats to me. if an ace within 125yd has NOT happened in the last 20 yrs, pretty solid chance it will NOT happen in the next 24 hours. heck, i'm going to be drunk in 2 holes. heck i'd throw my pitching wedge into the pond after a few misses. no way. 

Edited September 20, 2022 by orangeology

[caeye0710]

So either $10mm and have the financial freedom to move far away from my mother-in-law, or a free year away from my mother-in-law. 

 

Sign me up. 

[dlow206]

The high probability of jail not worth it based on my current life situation.

 

Would you guys do it if the person who was hitting the shots was a Tour player and you get $10 million if he/she makes it but you go to jail if he/she does not? Like what if you could have a prime Moe Norman hitting the shots on your behalf. 

Edited September 20, 2022 by dlow206

[Rosco1216]

2 hours ago, larrybud said:

I agree the odds don't necessarily be have to exceed 50/50, but I think you're grossly overestimating the probability of success. 

 

Ever see the DP World Tour "500 balls to make an ace" videos? I realize that's not a 24 hr period, but I would think for a tour pro 500 balls is more likely than an amateur over 24 hours, because I really don't think the am is going to have more than 1000 good chances due to fatigue, and so far, nobody in this series has made one!
 

 

I mean you just posted one where he makes it on his 200 something ball. At 171y it is probably a 7i and was getting zero roll or back spin so less chance for the ball to roll in than a shot that releases or backs up a bit. This is a much, much more difficult shot to hole. 
 

I’ve never had a traditional hole in one on a normal 18 hole course but I lived in an apartment complex for a summer that had an executive 9 hole par 3 course. All holes were between 90 and 140 and I made 3 HIO’s in the span of less than 3 weeks the first month I was there. I don’t count them for myself because, well, i feel a flip gap or pitching wedge over and over again is going to go in a few times.  Just this summer when warming up before a couple stroke play tournaments i would go to our practice hole before teeing off and would hit 5 shots each from a couple spots between 75 and 130y to dial in wedges. I recall making at least 2 and guarantee I didn’t hit many more than 100 cumulative shots the handful of times I did that and wedges are not a strong part of my game. 


 

[larrybud]

5 minutes ago, Rosco1216 said:

I mean you just posted one where he makes it on his 200 something ball. At 171y it is probably a 7i and was getting zero roll or back spin so less chance for the ball to roll in than a shot that releases or backs up a bit. This is a much, much more difficult shot to hole. 

 

 

There's like 10 other videos with no makes!

 

I also think people are greatly overestimating the number of quality swings they could hit in this time period.

Edited September 20, 2022 by larrybud

[larciel]

2 hours ago, larrybud said:

I agree the odds don't necessarily be have to exceed 50/50, but I think you're grossly overestimating the probability of success. 

 

Ever see the DP World Tour "500 balls to make an ace" videos? I realize that's not a 24 hr period, but I would think for a tour pro 500 balls is more likely than an amateur over 24 hours, because I really don't think the am is going to have more than 1000 good chances due to fatigue, and so far, nobody in this series has made one!
 

 

It's so impressive that after coming up SOOOOOO close he came back up and aced it on his third shot after.

[Murphy76]

 

On what charge would you be sent to prison for?   That could make a HUGE difference.

 

An average person could easily do a 1-year stretch for burglary.

 

Not so much for being a pedophile....

 

 

[Krt22]

14 minutes ago, Murphy76 said:

 

On what charge would you be sent to prison for?   That could make a HUGE difference.

 

An average person could easily do a 1-year stretch for burglary.

 

Not so much for being a pedophile....

 

 

Are you speaking from experience?

[MelloYello]

2 hours ago, Double Mocha Man said:

 

Sounds to me like you're a young guy (I'm probably not that much older than you) and you're already experiencing some debt... credit cards, maybe a mortgage, college debt, a car loan and that $2 Nassau you still owe your golfing buddy.

 

Yeah, I'm 36you and I'm working class. Don't get me wrong, there are far worse things to do than be an engineer but I'd quit my job in a heartbeat if I could. The only debt I have is a mortgage but working still sucks and the fact I have to do it for decades to come is depressing AF. 

 

Nobody with a real job actually wants to work. If you're blessed enough such that $10M wouldn't change your life, cheers to you.

Edited September 20, 2022 by MelloYello

[MelloYello]

20 minutes ago, Murphy76 said:

 

On what charge would you be sent to prison for?   That could make a HUGE difference.

 

An average person could easily do a 1-year stretch for burglary.

 

Not so much for being a pedophile....

 

 

 

LOL, that would make this more interesting. 

 

If you make a HOI, you get $10M. 

 

If you miss, you get wrongfully-convicted of a horrible crime for which you get a 1-year sentence. 😂

[MelloYello]

42 minutes ago, larrybud said:

 

There's like 10 other videos with no makes!

 

I also think people are greatly overestimating the number of quality swings they could hit in this time period.

 

No offense, but it depends on the distance in question (which here is 125-yd) as well as the age, health and overall quality of player. 

 

Give a skilled golfer who's in good health a full day to hole-out with a Pw from the same spot taking shots over and over and I think he's got a very good chance of making it. 

[Double Mocha Man]

23 minutes ago, Murphy76 said:

On what charge would you be sent to prison for?   

 

First degree Murder of golf probabilities.

[Jefff]

i would need to have rights to inspect green and hole.  then its a yes

[MelloYello]

1 minute ago, Jefff said:

i would need to have rights to inspect green and hole.  then its a yes

 

What if you walk up to find it's a classic turtleback green? 😂

[Murphy76]

12 minutes ago, Krt22 said:

Are you speaking from experience?

 

Fortunately, no. 

 

But I think we all know that kid-diddlers are pretty low on the grey-bar ladder.

 

 

 

 

[Krt22]

22 minutes ago, Murphy76 said:

 

Fortunately, no. 

 

But I think we all know that kid-diddlers are pretty low on the grey-bar ladder.

 

 

 

 

Ahh..so burglary then 🤣

[MK7Golf21]

bunch of weak white golfers thinking 1 year of jail would be cake walk, no thanks. Would ruin the rest of your life. I'm not sure I could make a hole in 1 from 125 yards in 1 day. I have spent many hours on the range hitting at flags and pretty much never make any.

[Double Mocha Man]

4 minutes ago, MK7Golf21 said:

bunch of weak white golfers thinking 1 year of jail would be cake walk, no thanks. Would ruin the rest of your life. I'm not sure I could make a hole in 1 from 125 yards in 1 day. I have spent many hours on the range hitting at flags and pretty much never make any.

 

I have a friend (good guy) who, on different occasions has spent a total of about 30 days in jail.  He absolutely hated, hated it.  And he's a very adaptable guy, who loves camping out and roughing it.

[MK7Golf21]

Just now, Double Mocha Man said:

 

I have a friend (good guy) who, on different occasions has spent a total of about 30 days in jail.  He absolutely hated, hated it.  And he's a very adaptable guy, who loves camping out and roughing it.

 

yea, that's what I have heard. Even short amounts of time like 30-60 days is rough and life changing.

[Double Mocha Man]

1 minute ago, MK7Golf21 said:

 

yea, that's what I have heard. Even short amounts of time like 30-60 days is rough and life changing.

 

I couldn't agree more.  These guys who are thinking a year in jail is no big deal need to volunteer for a week in jail... their tone will quickly change.

[JetSpeed79]

Come on now guys! Prison golfers are tough too!

[SE Gamer]

On 9/19/2022 at 8:02 PM, Double Mocha Man said:

 

I think you might be discounting the seriousness and depression of being in jail/prison.  You end up with very few rights.  Sheesh, you can't even wake up one beautiful, sunny morning and decide you want to play golf...

 

Didn't you just post in another thread that you'd never play outdoor golf again if simulators were to find a better way to replicate on-course lies? These days some prisons might even have a golf sim as an "amenity". 

 

Now, the above isn't to say that I disagree with your point. While I'd think my odds are better than most I'd really need to read the fine print for the challenge. Will my time in the clink have any impact on my criminal record? Will work allow a leave of absence to do my time if I fail? Can I get an early release if I agree to repair all my pitch marks?

 

While enticing, the more I think about it, the more confident I am that I'd pass. Back in the day, me and my buddies would often close out our "caddy monday" days doing different challenges. To include 100-ish yard hole out contests. We were all solid players. And more often than not, we'd collectively come up empty.