Jump to content

24 hours to hit a hole in one from 125 yards - $10 million if you do, but 1 year in jail if you don't...


stimpmeterp
 Share

Recommended Posts

50 minutes ago, SE Gamer said:

Didn't you just post in another thread that you'd never play outdoor golf again if simulators were to find a better way to replicate on-course lies? 

 

No. I posted a dinner picture of my chicken fajitas over polenta.

  • Haha 1

3.0 GHIN Index - trending down

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fun question.

 

I think if I was able to pick the hole and pin location I would take the bet. If it's gonna be a random hole and random pin location, then I'd really have to think about it. 

 

As others have pointed out, the divots would be a concern. So I would also want a nice brand new mat to hit off.

 

I think hitting the same 125 yard shot over and over again really changes the odds of  dunking one. Realistically, I'd say I have about a 30-40% chance of boxing one in 24 hours. 30-40% chance makes this, IMO, an asymmetrical bet so the book says play.

 

As far as repercussions, I'd be OK knowing that after my jail time I would be forced to work in the golf industry. You know damn well that other golfers would sympathize with your jail time and give you a job.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was thinking about this more yesterday and I know that amateur odds are 12500/1, but that is for a random distance.  I tried to look for odds by distance and have come up empty.  The only thing I have found is pro vs am odds or odds of multiple HIO odds, but nothing broken down by distance.

 

I know that the math was done earlier in the thread and it was a ~35% success rate given 3500 tries, but I would love to see the odds for specific distances.

 

TLDR - If you know HIO odds by distance, post them.

Edited by dugue4

Driver - Tour Edge Exotics 722E

5w - Sub 70 949X

4-6i i200s

7-UW i210s

56*, 60* - Sub 70 286

Putter - Ping Sigma 2 Anser

Ball - Vice Pro Zero 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/21/2022 at 11:03 AM, dugue4 said:

I was thinking about this more yesterday and I know that amateur odds are 12500/1, but that is for a random distance.  I tried to look for odds by distance and have come up empty.  The only thing I have found is pro vs am odds or odds of multiple HIO odds, but nothing broken down by distance.

 

I know that the math was done earlier in the thread and it was a ~35% success rate given 3500 tries, but I would love to see the odds for specific distances.

 

TLDR - If you know HIO odds by distance, post them.

 

You would also have to factor in the immense pressure on yourself of the year in jail penalty. I'm sure the pressure if enough to make people miss for a month straight if they had that much time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/20/2022 at 2:16 PM, MK7Golf21 said:

 

yea, that's what I have heard. Even short amounts of time like 30-60 days is rough and life changing.

Using a football analogy- You go into jail as a tight end and come out as a wide receiver.

  • Haha 4

Ping G410 Tour AD DI6S

Ping G425 Tensi Orange

Ping G30 5W Tensi Orange

Ping G425 Hybrid Tensi Orange

Ping G400 Steelfiber 

Ping Glide LW

Bettinardi Studio 28cs

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not a very intimidating guy, would get my a** turned to mince meat in the slammer. 

 

I'll stick with the grind and keep butthole intact. 

  • Haha 1

Taylormade SIM2 - Project X Hzrdus Smoke Black RDX 70 6.5

Cobra LTD 3w - Project X Evenflow Black 85 6.0

Cobra LTD 5w - Project X Evenflow Black 85 6.0

PXG 0311x 4 DI - Mitsubishi MMT 90s

New Level 902 OS 5-AW - Nippon Modus 120x (ssx1)

Scratch Forged SS 56 - Nippon Modus Wedge 115

Scratch Forged SS 60 - Nippon Modus Wedge 115

Custom MackMade Putter

Vice Pro

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 Do I get to pick the layout of the hole? Is it a pristine day with no wind or precipitation? It is summer in Alaska so 24h of daylight? Am I allowed design the hole so that it's really one giant funnel for anything within, say, 5 feet?

 

Next, if I fail am I allowed to defer my prison sentence until a later time or does it have to be now? And is it poor person prison or Martha Steward prison?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Albatross Dreamer said:

 Do I get to pick the layout of the hole? Is it a pristine day with no wind or precipitation? It is summer in Alaska so 24h of daylight? Am I allowed design the hole so that it's really one giant funnel for anything within, say, 5 feet?

 

Next, if I fail am I allowed to defer my prison sentence until a later time or does it have to be now? And is it poor person prison or Martha Steward prison?

Yes, I need more info to make a honest answer. What is green conditions? Wind? Big flat green? Huge sweeper? 

 

I mean I'm still going to give it a shot. I think it'd be worth a shot. 

  • Like 2

Titleist 910D3 9.5

Adams SpeedLine 3W 15 degree

Wilson Staff FG tour 2H 21 degree

Titleist 712MB Forged 4-PW

Titleist BV 08 50,54,58 wedges

Titleist Scotty Cameron California Montery

Titleist Pro V1 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let me use a few "D" words.  I don't think folks on here understand how demoralizing, debilitating and depressing prison can be. (No, I haven't been there, but I did spend a night in jail).  The offer would be more balanced if it was 3 months of work release.

3.0 GHIN Index - trending down

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, fr3sh said:

Yes, I need more info to make a honest answer. What is green conditions? Wind? Big flat green? Huge sweeper? 

 

I mean I'm still going to give it a shot. I think it'd be worth a shot. 

One other consideration is how long can I train for it? If I can do nothing but practice on this hole for 6 months I'd feel pretty good about it.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For all you guys who are saying "No" to this, here's a question...

 

...At what distance does your answer become a yes? 

 

 

If you had all day to chip in from 10-yds away you could obviously do it and with $10M on the line you'd be moronic not to take the bet. What about 20-yds? What about 40-yds? What about 65-yds? 

 

So what's the number? 

 

What about if it were simply a full Sw? Don't you think you could make 1 if you had 2,000 shots to hit a smooth, effortless Sw? 

 

Everybody's going to have a number and based on their skill it might be longer than someone else's. If I say yes to 125, you may not, but that doesn't mean you'd turn down the bet at 80-yds!

 

That's the more interesting question. Where does your confidence stop? 

 

.

Edited by MelloYello
  • Like 3

TSR3 (9o) (Graphite Design Tour AD IZ-6)
M6 (17o / 210) (Diamana Blueboard)

zX (4-5) (UST Recoil)
Z-Forged (6-P) (Nippon Modus3)
SM6 50-F / 56-F / 60-S
Odyssey 2-Ball

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Would 100% do it if the penalty were not something idiotic like actual jail time. Like if I had to put up $10,000 of my own money, I would absolutely do it, no question. To win $10,000,000? Would be a blast! And I have holed out a stupid number of shots over the years. I have one actual hole-in-one, but many, many hole outs from 80 to 215 yards in the fairway.

 

PING G400 Max - Atmos Tour Spec Red - 65s
Titleist TSi2 16.5* 4w - Tensei Blue - 65s

Titleist TSi2 3H (18*), 4H (21*) - Tensei Blue 65s
Adams Idea Tech V4 5H, 6H, 7H ProLaunch Blue 75 HY x-stiff
Titleist AP2 716 8i 37* KBS Tour S; Titleist AP2 716 9i 42* KBS Tour S
Cleveland RTX-4 mid-bounce 46* DG s400
Cleveland RTX-4 mid-bounce 50* DG s400
Cleveland RTX-4 full-sole 56* DG s400
Cleveland RTX-4 low-bounce 60* DG s400
PING Sigma 2 Valor 400 Counter-Balanced, 38"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, MelloYello said:

For all you guys who are saying "No" to this, here's a question...

 

...At what distance does your answer become a yes? 

 

 

If you had all day to chip in from 10-yds away you could obviously do it and with $10M on the line you'd be moronic not to take the bet. What about 20-yds? What about 40-yds? What about 65-yds? 

 

So what's the number? 

 

What about if it were simply a full Sw? Don't you think you could make 1 if you had 2,000 shots to hit a smooth, effortless Sw? 

 

Everybody's going to have a number and based on their skill it might be longer than someone else's. If I say yes to 125, you may not, but that doesn't mean you'd turn down the bet at 80-yds!

 

That's the more interesting question. Where does your confidence stop? 

 

.

 

The stupid part is the "prison" thing. How about: How much $$$ would you risk to win $10,000,000? Or even ONE Million.

I would risk a lot, and I am not wealthy.

  • Like 2

PING G400 Max - Atmos Tour Spec Red - 65s
Titleist TSi2 16.5* 4w - Tensei Blue - 65s

Titleist TSi2 3H (18*), 4H (21*) - Tensei Blue 65s
Adams Idea Tech V4 5H, 6H, 7H ProLaunch Blue 75 HY x-stiff
Titleist AP2 716 8i 37* KBS Tour S; Titleist AP2 716 9i 42* KBS Tour S
Cleveland RTX-4 mid-bounce 46* DG s400
Cleveland RTX-4 mid-bounce 50* DG s400
Cleveland RTX-4 full-sole 56* DG s400
Cleveland RTX-4 low-bounce 60* DG s400
PING Sigma 2 Valor 400 Counter-Balanced, 38"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Obee said:

 

The stupid part is the "prison" thing. How about: How much $$$ would you risk to win $10,000,000? Or even ONE Million.

I would risk a lot, and I am not wealthy.

 

That's a good question, the prison thing is just a surrogate for "something bad" otherwise why wouldn't anyone do it.

 

10,000$ for a day to make a hole in one for 10M is an easy decision for a good golfer. Most people can go on the street, make a few moves Scarface style and come up with 10G's. I mean just borrow from a Ukrainian mobster like Bradley Cooper in Limitless.

 

The real thing with your question is there's an upper limit people be willing to bet to win 10M. Like if you have 100K+ just lying around for tomfoolery such as this--do you really need 10M? You're probably doing pretty good.

 

The top answer is probably somewhere in the 50-99K range. If you have immediate access to more than that , why take a chance, you're doing fine bro

  • Like 1

Tour Edge C722 10.5 w/Tensei Raw AV White 75

Tour Edge E722 15 w/Tensei RAW AV White 75

PXG 0311 XP 18 degree iron w/Steelfiber 115

PXG 0317 ST w/TT Elevate Tour

PXG 0311 forged 54/60 w/TT Elevate Tour

Deschamps Slick Satin / Plumbers Neck

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, MelloYello said:

For all you guys who are saying "No" to this, here's a question...

 

...At what distance does your answer become a yes? 

 

 

If you had all day to chip in from 10-yds away you could obviously do it and with $10M on the line you'd be moronic not to take the bet. What about 20-yds? What about 40-yds? What about 65-yds? 

 

So what's the number? 

 

What about if it were simply a full Sw? Don't you think you could make 1 if you had 2,000 shots to hit a smooth, effortless Sw? 

 

Everybody's going to have a number and based on their skill it might be longer than someone else's. If I say yes to 125, you may not, but that doesn't mean you'd turn down the bet at 80-yds!

 

That's the more interesting question. Where does your confidence stop? 

 

.

 

The other problem here is the time allotment. Does it have to be 24 consecutive hours? Or could it be one hour a day for 24 different days. That's a completely different proposition. My guess is that the average golf stops hitting their best golf shots after 200 to 300 shots in a given period. Thoughts?

PING G400 Max - Atmos Tour Spec Red - 65s
Titleist TSi2 16.5* 4w - Tensei Blue - 65s

Titleist TSi2 3H (18*), 4H (21*) - Tensei Blue 65s
Adams Idea Tech V4 5H, 6H, 7H ProLaunch Blue 75 HY x-stiff
Titleist AP2 716 8i 37* KBS Tour S; Titleist AP2 716 9i 42* KBS Tour S
Cleveland RTX-4 mid-bounce 46* DG s400
Cleveland RTX-4 mid-bounce 50* DG s400
Cleveland RTX-4 full-sole 56* DG s400
Cleveland RTX-4 low-bounce 60* DG s400
PING Sigma 2 Valor 400 Counter-Balanced, 38"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Obee said:

 

The other problem here is the time allotment. Does it have to be 24 consecutive hours? Or could it be one hour a day for 24 different days. That's a completely different proposition. My guess is that the average golf stops hitting their best golf shots after 200 to 300 shots in a given period. Thoughts?

 

That's the catch! After 300 shots, or 500 shots, your arms become noodles. So even though you have 24 hours to perform the task you are only good for about the first three of those.

  • Like 1

3.0 GHIN Index - trending down

Link to comment
Share on other sites

IMO anyone who would agree to this might as well just book their reservation in jail.

 

It's like the lottery.  I don't ever buy a ticket but effectively have the same chance of winning as someone who does.

Callaway  Tour Issue FT-Tour 9.5* - Fubuki 53x5ct X

Callaway  X2hot Pro 2Deep 12.5* - Aldila Tour Green X

Callaway  TA X-Tour Utility Iron 18* & 21* - PX 6.5

Callaway  Razr X MB 5 - PW - PX 6.5

Cleveland  RTX-4  54* - KBS Wedge
Callaway  Sure Out 58* & 64* - KBS Wedge
Tad Moore  1997 Pro 1G Giraffe Bye Bye

Clicgear  6+ Black, 3.5 Black

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would hope if I did take the bet, that my 24 hour period would not be a windy one. That would complicate things greatly.

 

Also, didn't Dude Perfect do something like this? If I recall, the kid got one, and I don't think it took 24 hours either. He seemed to be a fairly talented golfer.

 

Lastly, what kind of jail for the year sentence? If it's like the minimum security jail Saul Goodman negotiates his way into in the final episode of, "Better Call Saul" you'd get to play golf while serving your time 🙂

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • Our picks

    • 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am - Discussion and Links to all photos
      Please put any questions or comments here
       
       
       
      General Albums
       
       
       
      WITB Albums
       
      Lanto Griffin - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Charles Kelley WITB (country singer from Lady A band) – 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Ben Silverman - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Jonas Blixt - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Fabian Gomez - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Alfonso Ribeiro (Carlton from Fresh Prince of BelAir) - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Seung Yul Noh - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Beau Hossler - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Danny Willett - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      JB Holmes - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Harry Higgs - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Kevin Kisner - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Kira Dixon - Golf Channel reporter - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Michael Pena, actor - WITB - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
       
       
       
      Pullout Albums
       
      Kyle Westmoreland - custom Hzrdus driver and fairwood shafts - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Cameron putters - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      TaylorMade Max putters - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      LA Golf Malibu X putter - 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
      Pebble Beach 18th Hole walking tour (and inside "The Lodge") – 2023 AT&T Pebble Pro-Am
       
       
       
       
        • Like
      • 13 replies
    • 2023 Farmers Insurance Open - Discussion and Links to all photos
      Please put any questions or Comments here
       
       
       
      General Albums
       
       
      2023 Farmers Insurance Open - Monday #1
      2023 Farmers Insurance Open - Monday #2
      2023 Farmers Insurance Open - Monday #3
       
       
       
       
      WITB Albums
       
      Justin Thomas - WITB - 2023 Farmers Insurance Open
      Will Zalatoris - WITB - 2023 Farmers Insurance Open
      Michael Herrera - WITB - 2023 Farmers Insurance Open
      Michael Block - SoCal PGA Section Champ - WITB - 2023 Farmers Insurance Open
      Carl Yuan - WITB - 2023 Farmers Insurance Open
      Joey Vrzich - WITB - 2023 Farmers Insurance Open
       
       
       
      Pullout Albums
       
      New Taylor-Made putters - 2023 Farmers Insurance Open
       
       
       
       
        • Like
      • 6 replies
    • 2023 The American Express - Discussion and Links
      Please put any questions or comment here
       
       
       
      General Albums
       
      2023 The American Express - Monday #1
      2023 The American Express - Monday #2
       
       
       
      WITB Albums
       
      Justin Lower - WITB - 2023 The American Express
      Doug Ghim - WITB - 2023 The American Express
      Sam Burns - WITB - 2023 The American Express
      Caleb Surratt - WITB - 2023 The American Express
      Aaron Wise - WITB - 2023 The American Express
       
       
       
       
       
      Pullout Albums
       
       
      New Cameron putter - 2023 The American Express
      Cameron putters - - 2023 The American Express
      New Bettinardi prototype putters - 2023 The American Express
      New L.A.B. Golf LINK.1 putter - 2023 The American Express
      New Evnroll putters - 2023 The American Express
      Jimmy Walker testing the Axis prototype putter - 2023 The American Express
      Cameron CT Baller Boy covers - 2023 The American Express
      Richy Werenski's Cameron Timeless putter - 2023 The American Express
      Graphite Design - CQ 6 & CQ 7 shafts - 2023 The American Express
      Titleist TRS hybrids - 2023 The American Express
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
      • 11 replies
    • In-hand photos of 2023 TaylorMade Stealth 2 Plus, Stealth 2, Stealth 2 HD drivers + fairways woods
      Check out our front page launch stories here and here. 
       
      What you need to know: For the first time, carbon is the most prevalent material by volume in a TaylorMade driver, and more carbon equals better performance, says the company. Last year, TaylorMade debuted a 60X Carbon Twist Face. With TaylorMade Stealth 2, engineers are bringing carbon to more of the golf club — and unveiling a new-and-improved Carbon Twist Face in the process. Stealth 2 Plus (low spin, most workable) Stealth 2, and Stealth 2 HD (draw bias, high launch, most forgiving) drivers make up the Stealth 2 family.
       
      Stealth 2 


       
      Stealth 2 Plus


       
      Stealth 2 HD



       
      What you need to know: Breakthrough movable weight technologies and versatile designs are the hallmarks of the 2023 TaylorMade Stealth 2 fairway woods. Stealth 2 Plus is branded as “three fairway woods in one” owing to the unique performance characteristics afforded by the 50-gram sole weight. Stealth 2 features a slightly lower profile 3D carbon crown than Stealth. This moves CG down and away from the toe with more weight in the rear of the club for higher launch and MOI. Ultra-high MOI Stealth 2 HD features an oversized 200cc head and low-profile sole, creating an easy-to-hit, draw-biased club.
       
      Stealth 2 fairway


       
      Stealth 2 Plus fairway


       
       


       
        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 47 replies
    • 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions - Discussion
      Please put any equipment questions or comments here
       
      More albums will be added tomorrow
       
       
       
      General Albums
       
      2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua – Tues. Pt. 1
       
       
      WITB Albums
       
      Jon Rahm mini WITB (w/ new Callaway Paradym Triple Diamond driver and fairway woods) – 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
      Ryan Brehm WITB – 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
       
       
      Pullout Albums
       
      SuperStroke Limited Edition Hawaii Collection covers and grips – 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
      Collin Morikawa's new TaylorMade Stealth 2 Plus driver and 3 wood – 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
      Xander Schauffele's new Callaway Paradym Triple Diamond driver – 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
      Xander Schauffele's Odyssey Toulon "XS Proto" mallet putter – 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
      New Odyssey White Hot Versa and Tri-Hot 5K putters – 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
      Sungjae Im's Scotty Cameron Tourtype F-5 proto putter (with new SuperStroke Zenergy 1.0 PT grip) – 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
      Scottie Scheffler's new TaylorMade Stealth 2 Plus driver and Stealth 2 fairway wood – 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
       
       
       
       
       
       
       

       
        • Thanks
        • Like
      • 83 replies

×
×
  • Create New...