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Fairways+Greens VS. Ball Striking VS. Strokes Gained Driving+Approach Comparisons


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1 hour ago, agolf1 said:

I meant the first scenario you listed above.  One wouldn't be physically "obstructed" but practically speaking you have some problems (or at least much different than if you were going to the left pin).

 

I get the over a large number of rounds part.  I guess I was just commenting on the traditional stats that don't reflect the situation (in the fringe 6 inches off the green 20 feet from the hole, etc) and whether the same applied here.  I.e. hit an approach from 175 yards to 15 feet; one time is on the wrong ridge above the hole and literally no chance to stop the ball within a couple of feet whereas the other is a good look at birdie (or double as you've mentioned).

 

Anyways, carry on.  Thank you.

Well a perfect system would also account for the difficulty of holding a green with a draw versus a fade (i.e. lefty versus righty golfers), the wind velocity and whether it's gusty or steady, the moisture content in the greens and whether the grass in the rough was a flyer lie or a not. It would pretty tough to implement though. 

 

But every way of analyzing anything has limitations. Strokes Gained certainly does have limitations but I'm not sure treating left and right pin placements as equivalent is among the most important of them. 

 

For starters, it does not account for either green speeds or the slope(s) across which a given putt must travel. In the long run that's not too major but at the extremes (dead flat slow greens versus highly contoured Tour speed greens) it's bound to make a difference to the extent that a given player or group of players predominantly play on one type or another. But length of a putt is so important in determining the make probability that any system accounting for length works pretty well, even if an ideal system would also have three or four other parameters.

 

P.S. Just one suggestion about describing the scenarios. You mentioned the length of the tee shot but it would have been ideal to also mention the length of the approach shot from the rough. Getting at tucked hole location from 80 yards in the rough versus hitting to a hole on the fat side of the green is one scenario. Getting at a tucked hole location from 180 yards in the versus the same shot to the fat side of the green is very different. 

Edited by North Butte
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1 hour ago, Golferpaul said:

 Players with higher GIRs will hit, on average, closer to the hole than players with fewer GIRs whether they hit a green or not.  They hit more greens because they are better ball strikers and their proximity to the hole will average closer because they are better ball strikers.  

There so much circular argument in that paragraph I'm not even going to attempt to untangle it. You're just chasing your self around and around in ever smaller circles like a dog chasing its tail. 

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8 hours ago, North Butte said:

So does The Grint treat "missed GIR" five yards short in the fairway exactly the same as "missed GIR" 170 yards out in the rough? 

 

And does it treat missing a green when your tee shot was in the woods requiring a chip-out the same as a missed green because you fatted a wedge 30 yards short of the green from 100 yards out in the fairway? 

 

If so, no matter how in-depth it claims to be the results are rubbish. 

 

Any of these apps that claim to do in-depth analysis of simple counting stats are basically asking you to believe if you mash together enough bad data and combine it cleverly enough, somehow valid conclusions will emerge. Ain't ever happened, never will. 

The paid version of The Grint does have that info yes.  

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20 hours ago, North Butte said:

So does The Grint treat "missed GIR" five yards short in the fairway exactly the same as "missed GIR" 170 yards out in the rough? 

 

And does it treat missing a green when your tee shot was in the woods requiring a chip-out the same as a missed green because you fatted a wedge 30 yards short of the green from 100 yards out in the fairway? 

 

If so, no matter how in-depth it claims to be the results are rubbish. 

 

Any of these apps that claim to do in-depth analysis of simple counting stats are basically asking you to believe if you mash together enough bad data and combine it cleverly enough, somehow valid conclusions will emerge. Ain't ever happened, never will. 

 

You are the only one making that claim.  At this point you are arguing with yourself and your own beliefs.

 

To answer your first two questions, no not really, it doesn't in the entirety of the process.

 

Ultimately though, the measure of usefulness of any data or information is what actions you choose to take from it.  None of these things have an impact on your game without action.  Whether I play a whole season of golf and at the end of it just decide based upon feel for my game that I need to concentrate on and improve my ball striking with clubs from 150-100 yards or whether I track every shot I take and have SG numbers for every aspect of my game and that leads me to the conclusion that I need to concentrate on and improve my ball striking with clubs from 150-100 yards, I am arriving at the same point.  The road starts at the same point, diverges, and then converges back at the same point. 

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10 minutes ago, smashdn said:

 

You are the only one making that claim.  At this point you are arguing with yourself and your own beliefs.

 

To answer your first two questions, no not really, it doesn't in the entirety of the process.

 

Ultimately though, the measure of usefulness of any data or information is what actions you choose to take from it.  None of these things have an impact on your game without action.  Whether I play a whole season of golf and at the end of it just decide based upon feel for my game that I need to concentrate on and improve my ball striking with clubs from 150-100 yards or whether I track every shot I take and have SG numbers for every aspect of my game and that leads me to the conclusion that I need to concentrate on and improve my ball striking with clubs from 150-100 yards, I am arriving at the same point.  The road starts at the same point, diverges, and then converges back at the same point. 

I don’t care at all what stats you do or don’t personally use. I am simply pointing out the incorrect claims in your statements so that they don’t confuse someone else who reads them and thinks they are valid.

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15 hours ago, North Butte said:

Say it however you want but GIR are not the “best way” they are a terrible, confused, muddled and misleading 1. way to evaluate your iron play. 
 

2. And they correlate more than other even sillier, misleading counting stats. Saying GIR is more closely associated with scoring than fairways or putts per GIR is just saying it is not quite as bad as some even worse stats. A very low bar. 
 

Not that correlation is the goal. The goal is to learn something beyond what the score already tells you. If there were a 1.00 correlation between scoring and GIR then how would that prove that GIR is useful. 3. We dont need to predict scoring, we already know the scores. 

 

 

4. Nothing special about GIR in the regard. If you practice your driving for a year and improve your tee shots, your scores will improve. If you work on your putting for a year and improve your putting, you'll take fewer putts and your scores will improve. Or wedge game or chipping. 

 

1. I think you are the only one saying GIR is the best way to evaluate your iron play.  You are arguing with yourself and what you thought someone said.  GIR is an indicator of both driving and approach quality.  You cannot look at GIR alone and determine how good or bad either of those aspects are.  BUT you can look at your GIR, compare it to that of similar handicaps and determine whether you are performing above or below expectations.  Very similarly to comparing SG-driving, SG-Approach or SG-Through the Green to your peer group.  GIR is less granular but, like I said initially, doesn't require you track the distances of every shot you take.

 

2. I love SG data.  I am not trying to argue which is better from a data standpoint, it is SG.  But just as with your argument regarding GIR being the least bad, there is a least bad SG measurement and there are "more bad" SG measurements.  Not all of them are good measurements nor correlate to scoring.  And regarding scoring...

 

3.  We aren't predicting scoring for the sake of predicting scoring, we are better understanding which measurements or stats correlate best to scoring and seeking to improve the aspects that cause those measurements to move.  The object of golf is to get the ball in the hole in as few of strokes as possible.  But if I told you as a teacher on the range to you the student our plan is to get the ball in the hole in as few as strokes as possible, that leaves so much ambiguity on what to do you really have no starting point on which to base an improvement plan.  That GIR number just breaks down the whole game into a smaller chunk to observe how it is performing.  Just doesn't break it down as small as say SG-Approaches 150-175 yards.  But before you bother looking at SG Approaches 150-175 yards wouldn't you first just take a look at SG-Approach and see what that looked like?

 

4. Mostly discussed in point above.  If you work on your putting for a year and you improve your scoring by one half shot per round was that a wise use of your practice time?  If however you concentrated on just ball striking in general for a year, what all aspects of the game would benefit from being able to more accurately and consistently strike the ball with the face of the club?

 

You can come to the same conclusions about a person's game without using SG.  It may take you a little more digging and you won't be as able to quantify it as well.  But ultimately the goal is not to have the best stats or data while you get better, it is to make the right decisions about how you get better.  If you used a crystal ball and went down the right path you are still improving.

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11 minutes ago, North Butte said:

I don’t care at all what stats you do or don’t personally use. I am simply pointing out the incorrect claims in your statements so that they don’t confuse someone else who reads them and thinks they are valid.

 

Which particular statements are you having a problem with?  I want to be crystal clear here, please quote me, as you have a tendency to construe things at times in this thread.

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14 hours ago, North Butte said:

I have some sympathy for the basic argument that's in there although you're posing it in a roundabout way. 

 

Statistics exist whether they are actually measured and computed or not. If you putt a certain way during a round, all that matters is how many strokes that resulted in on each hole. There are a infinite number of stats that could be used to numerically represent your putting result but they are just descriptive. They don't accomplish anything. 

 

Millions of golfers including some of the best who ever played the game have never paid any attention whatsoever to statistics. It has often led to beliefs that are either demonstrably false or that are self-fulfilling (i.e. generations of golfers who weren't very good a 50-yard wedge shots because they believed it was "obvious" that a good golfer only leaves himself full wedge distances). But if you win you win and if you lose you lose and no that is not a statistical question. 

 

For my part, I'm long past the point where there's any low hanging fruit for me to glean about my own game and just about no fruit left on the vine at all. So I no longer do any shot tracking or stat-keeping. I'm glad I figured out a couple of things over the years but for me a fairly small amount of analytics will give me enough useful stuff to work on I'll never get around to practicing that much anyway. 

 

So I'm never going to suggest that any golfer, particularly a recreational one, go to all the trouble it takes to track every shot and do good analytics. Or heaven forbid get tangled up in those automated trackers like Arccos that a royal pain in the neck. 

 

It just pains me to see people repeating ignorant decades out of date wishful thinking about all the wonderful insights you can glean if you just combine the checks and X's of GIR/fairways/putts from enough rounds then slice and dice them just right. It might be easier than real analytics but it still takes time and effort and then in the end they will get sent down dead ends due to the misleading stats they're going to all that trouble to manage. 

Right.  I get you.  I just wonder if some of the best guys don’t ignore stats on a regular basis due to them effecting decisions or confidence negatively. Maybe pay a person to watch them and only blow the whistle when it’s an obvious flaw , and maybe then do it through a coach who just suggests a path change without showing how bad it is.  
 

im projecting a bit of course. I tend to obsess over things , which is a blessing and a curse.  Blessing because you’ll never outwork me , but a curse because- if I don’t see improvement , confidence goes to zero.   Sometimes ignorance is bliss.  

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7 hours ago, MtlJayMan said:

I’ll throw in that chart from Tour data… just for the sake of it… doesn’t say much but says more than we think intuitively (not even looking at the SG stats to this point) - and might be indirectly related to the discussion at hand 

3F72A2B9-B83B-41D0-BB53-231A102EA918.jpeg

 

And that is the point.  Whether you are a foot away or 60 feet away, a GIR is a GIR, even though one most certainly is much better than the other.  That is why GIR is not a great stat.  It's a simple one, but it lacks a lot of context.  Just like FIR.  In most cases the first cut is almost as good as the fairway in terms of being able to control the ball.  But using FIR, it's a miss, so =bad.  But it's really not.  

 

Anyone who tracks putts and GIR will see as your table shows:  the more GIRs the more putts, because if you are a decent chipper at all, your first putt will be much closer to the hole.  BUt what do those really tell you?  Not much IMHO.

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11 hours ago, MtlJayMan said:

I’ll throw in that chart from Tour data… just for the sake of it… doesn’t say much but says more than we think intuitively (not even looking at the SG stats to this point) - and might be indirectly related to the discussion at hand 

3F72A2B9-B83B-41D0-BB53-231A102EA918.jpeg

This is true.  The best way to reduce total putts is to reduce GIRs.

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59 minutes ago, Golferpaul said:

This is true.  The best way to reduce total putts is to reduce GIRs.

While we know this to be intuitively true; when looking at the scoring average (and the slope of the graph to be 0.4 putts or so per GIR) you’re still better off with 18 GIR + 32 putts rather than 5 GIR + 27 putts

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16 hours ago, MtlJayMan said:

While we know this to be intuitively true; when looking at the scoring average (and the slope of the graph to be 0.4 putts or so per GIR) you’re still better off with 18 GIR + 32 putts rather than 5 GIR + 27 putts

This is true.  I should have said "The easiest way to reduce total putts is to reduce GIRs".

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On 10/31/2022 at 4:09 PM, jvincent said:

You have to be careful when adding individual strokes gained categories since the combined metric is not necessarily a linear relationship.

 

Many moons ago, before strokes gained, I did a correlation analysis on the various individual stats to scoring and GIR was the clear leader. Not even close IIRC. Now, GIR is really a proxy for strokes gained approach (dominant) + strokes gained off the tee (a factor, but less dominant).

Looking at the tour stats for 2022(last full season) it sure seems the SG off the tee and SG approach are a dead heat for value.  Why do you consider one more “dominant” than the other?

 

https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.02568.y2022.html

 

https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.02567.y2022.html

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Shilgy said:

Looking at the tour stats for 2022(last full season) it sure seems the SG off the tee and SG approach are a dead heat for value.  Why do you consider one more “dominant” than the other?

 

https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.02568.y2022.html

 

https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.02567.y2022.html

 

 

 

I was strictly talking about their impact to GIR.

 

And that was just my assumption / intuition. I have no actual data to back that up.

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On 11/7/2022 at 7:37 PM, North Butte said:

Well a perfect system would also account for the difficulty of holding a green with a draw versus a fade (i.e. lefty versus righty golfers), the wind velocity and whether it's gusty or steady, the moisture content in the greens and whether the grass in the rough was a flyer lie or a not. It would pretty tough to implement though. 

 

But every way of analyzing anything has limitations. Strokes Gained certainly does have limitations but I'm not sure treating left and right pin placements as equivalent is among the most important of them. 

 

For starters, it does not account for either green speeds or the slope(s) across which a given putt must travel. In the long run that's not too major but at the extremes (dead flat slow greens versus highly contoured Tour speed greens) it's bound to make a difference to the extent that a given player or group of players predominantly play on one type or another. But length of a putt is so important in determining the make probability that any system accounting for length works pretty well, even if an ideal system would also have three or four other parameters.

 

P.S. Just one suggestion about describing the scenarios. You mentioned the length of the tee shot but it would have been ideal to also mention the length of the approach shot from the rough. Getting at tucked hole location from 80 yards in the rough versus hitting to a hole on the fat side of the green is one scenario. Getting at a tucked hole location from 180 yards in the versus the same shot to the fat side of the green is very different. 

Absolutely, that's  the problem with strokes gained. All lies are not the same and all green conditions are not the same......Free swinging from behind is not the same as pressure from the lead on Sundays.....yet, some swear by strokes gained.

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16 minutes ago, Titleist99 said:

Absolutely, that's  the problem with strokes gained. All lies are not the same and all green conditions are not the same......Free swinging from behind is not the same as pressure from the lead on Sundays.....yet, some swear by strokes gained.

Well, at the end of the day how many is all that matters.  Strokes gained at its core is just a way of defining how each player arrives at his total score as compared to the other competitors.  
  So if if average 71.0 strokes per round and you average 69.0 what areas of the game are you saving those two strokes?

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On 11/7/2022 at 4:40 PM, North Butte said:

There so much circular argument in that paragraph I'm not even going to attempt to untangle it. You're just chasing your self around and around in ever smaller circles like a dog chasing its tail. 

Maybe not the best words, but the relationship @Golferpaul described is directionally correct. Here are GIR on the Y axis, Approach Distance on the X, and size/color of the data points are Strokes Gained.

 

image.png.3136d6c258cb509437d4e5bf05447a3c.png

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