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The Hero World Challenge 2022 (*** NO LIV DISCUSSIONS ***)


MattyO1984

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2 hours ago, nikeblades00 said:

I always crack up with men who have to throw 'my wife' in there. All of us married men with kids know for God damn sure no wife is going to make you a sitz bath every morning for your little plantar boo boo 😂

I almost had her going too...

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On 11/30/2022 at 5:56 AM, smashdn said:

That answers my previous question then, field size ultimately drives the points.  A field of 20 with 15 of the top 20 would receive less points than a field of 150 with 30 of the top 150 players in it it would seem.

 

Not sure how I feel about that.  Would think dilution of strength of field would play a slight role.  Would also think you could "play the math" and have larger fields and two cuts to inflate your points awarded if you were inclined.

It's a pretty straight forward monte carlo analysis. If you know each players average score per round and their standard deviation, you could simulate a tournament a few million times and have a pretty good understanding of how often the best player wins, the 10th best, the 100th best, etc. You can also quickly understand the effect of field size through the same type of modeling. 

 

I haven't done the math but it would likely be pretty subtle difference. For example, Rory may have a 5% chance of winning a 50 person event, a 4.5% chance of a 100 person event, etc. These are all professionals and there has been enough no-name major winners to know that extreme tail events are rare but do happen.   

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46 minutes ago, tacklingdummy said:

 

 

If betting on golf, I think the Hero World Challenge is the best tournament to do so since it is a small field. Looks like you have a couple of good picks. 

Agree.

Larger fields, it's better to pick top 10s or wait until the weekend or at least round 1 is in the books.

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1 hour ago, tacklingdummy said:

If betting on golf, I think the Hero World Challenge is the best tournament to do so since it is a small field. Looks like you have a couple of good picks. 

Depends on how you look at it. The odds of winning are higher but the payout will be lower. Odds makers are pretty good at their job. For example, when betting a favorite, the expected payouts (probabilities x outcomes) aren't going to change much between a 20 person event or a 100 person event. If that weren't the case, people would never bet on golf and only bet on horse racing.     

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12 hours ago, tacklingdummy said:

Tiger needs to get a new yacht. His yacht is dwarfed by a couple of yachts in the Bahamas harbor. 😜

tiger-yacht1-e1575487676432.jpg

image.jpeg.db8c31ad08fa7d102fb001f2ec5adb40.jpeg

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Mizuno ST Max 230 10.5* - LinQ Red 6F4

Mizuno ST Max 230 15/18 - LinQ Red 6F4

Mizuno ST Max 230 22 - LinQ Blue 75F4

Mizuno JPX 923 Tour 5-P  DG120 S300

Vokey SM9 50/54/60 - DGS200

Mizuno M-Craft II

CSX   

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Take a shot everytime the announcers try to describe AIM Point.  Go!

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Ping G425 MAX Flat Big + (Grand Bassara 29R)

Callaway Mavrik Max 3+ (Bassara W45)

Adams Idea Pro A12 Proto 16* (Adams Ultralight 50 Ladies)

Mizuno T-zoid Fli-Hi 21* (Adams Ultralight 50g Ladies)

Bridgestone J33 Forged 4-PW  (Reax 55 A-Flex)

Cleveland CBX Full Face 64*

McGregor Bobby Grace VFoil M5K Putter

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Sky with their obligatory totally OTT apology fest after Rahm's colourfully-phrased on-air grumbling.

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Nike Ignite 410 10.5° Grafalloy Blue X

Nike T60 15° Fujikura Speeder 757 X

Titleist 913F 19° Mitsubishi Diamana BB 83X or Titleist 712U 2-iron 19° KBS Tour S

Titleist 712U 3-iron 22° KBS Tour S

Titleist 681 4-iron to 9-iron KBS Tour S

Titleist SM5 48.08F Raw 49° KBS Tour S

Titleist SM5 56.10M Raw 56° KBS Tour S

Ping Eye 2 Gorge L Wedge 60° KBS Tour S  &  Ping Pal

 

 

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And Scheffler is now tied with a chip in eagle.  Wooo!

 

ETA: Spoke too soon. Hovland with the birdie to maintain a one stroke lead.

Edited by SnowbirdTom

Srixon ZX5 Mk II LS 9.5 driver x-flex

Srixon ZX Mk II 3 wood stiff

Srixon ZX-7 4-6 irons stiff

Srixon Z-Forged II 7-PW stiff

Cleveland ZipCore Tour raw wedges 52/56/60

TM Spider GT-X putter

XXIO premium bag on MGI Zip AT cart

Srixon Z-Star Diamond ball

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https://i.ytimg.com/vi/zx_25ernC2c/maxresdefault.jpg

 

Nike Ignite 410 10.5° Grafalloy Blue X

Nike T60 15° Fujikura Speeder 757 X

Titleist 913F 19° Mitsubishi Diamana BB 83X or Titleist 712U 2-iron 19° KBS Tour S

Titleist 712U 3-iron 22° KBS Tour S

Titleist 681 4-iron to 9-iron KBS Tour S

Titleist SM5 48.08F Raw 49° KBS Tour S

Titleist SM5 56.10M Raw 56° KBS Tour S

Ping Eye 2 Gorge L Wedge 60° KBS Tour S  &  Ping Pal

 

 

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