Who over-performs and under-performs in the majors

[Fairways_and_Greens]

DataGolf has a cool stokes gained analysis. The vertical axis is how many strokes gained a player has on average during majors, and the horizontal is how many strokes gained in regular events. Anyone over the green line performs better in majors, anyone under the green line J. Miller would call a choker.

 

Of course the GOAT is the outlier. The clown face is is who you think he is.

https://datagolf.com/viz-blog/major-performers

[Dutch1008]

Very cool. 

 

I'd argue that the GOAT isn't an outlier. His strokes gained is an outlier but his performance in majors is perfectly in line with his performance in non-majors. Kind of goes against the idea that he only cared about the majors. Tiger will rip your heart out at Augusta or the Greater Milwaukee Open. He doesn't discriminate. 

 

The true outliers within this analysis are Will Zalatoris and Max Homa. While still very early for both, to date, Zalatoris has really outperformed his baseline at majors while Max has underperformed significantly. Both guys are above average tour pros (+1 SG) but Zalatoris transforms to Tom Watson at the majors while Homa is basically a KFT player. 

 

Considering each players current form, I'd imagine there will be a pretty hard regression to the mean for both. Max's all around game is too good to continue to underperform, and Will's putting is too terrible to stay at those lofty heights. 

 

Good find and thanks for sharing.  

 

 

[markheardjr]

I would say Angel Cabrerra back in the day...but he ain't poppin up in any majors anytime soon. 10 top-10 Major finishes. 3 wins on tour...Masters, US Open and the Greenbrier Classic. wah wah.

 

Ricky Barnes 2009-2011 was like up there in a few Majors, especially early leaderboards. Never saw him do anything at a regular event.

Edited March 29 by markheardjr

[betarhoalphadelta]

2 hours ago, Dutch1008 said:

Very cool. 

 

I'd argue that the GOAT isn't an outlier. His strokes gained is an outlier but his performance in majors is perfectly in line with his performance in non-majors. Kind of goes against the idea that he only cared about the majors. Tiger will rip your heart out at Augusta or the Greater Milwaukee Open. He doesn't discriminate. 

 

The true outliers within this analysis are Will Zalatoris and Max Homa. While still very early for both, to date, Zalatoris has really outperformed his baseline at majors while Max has underperformed significantly. Both guys are above average tour pros (+1 SG) but Zalatoris transforms to Tom Watson at the majors while Homa is basically a KFT player. 

 

Considering each players current form, I'd imagine there will be a pretty hard regression to the mean for both. Max's all around game is too good to continue to underperform, and Will's putting is too terrible to stay at those lofty heights. 

 

Good find and thanks for sharing.  

 

 

 

Agreed on Tiger. Being right on the trendline suggests that he's just consistently better than everyone else, not that he's especially good in majors.

 

I think for both Zalatoris and Homa it's a sample size problem. If you look at the source, they cut off any player who has competed in <10 majors. 

 

Zalatoris only barely makes the cut in majors (10 to date) because he's young, but he came into the PGAT as an obviously very good player. He qualified for the 2018 US Open via sectional qualifier, but his first major as a true pro was in 2020 was the US open based upon his KFT status. I'd expect regression toward the mean, whether that means his non-major SG improves, or his major SG declines. Personally I think his performance in regular PGAT events will go up, not the opposite. 

 

Homa is similar, but for a different reason. He is older and was failing to maintain Tour status for several years. He has 13 total majors, but we can discount the 2013 US Open because he was an amateur at the time. He started to find his game towards the end of the decade, earned PGAT status for the first time in 2019. He notched one win in 2019, which started getting him into the majors. But for the first roughly 2 years of majors, all he did was get cut. Which actually corresponds to a two-year drought in PGAT wins as well. He's got 5 PGAT wins in roughly the last 2+ years, and that loosely corresponds with when he stopped getting cut in majors and started at least finishing mid-pack for the players who made the cut. I don't know where Homa will go as it's a question of whether he's "found" something that will persist long-term or whether this is just a good phase of his career. 

[Dutch1008]

7 minutes ago, betarhoalphadelta said:

I'd expect regression toward the mean, whether that means his non-major SG improves, or his major SG declines. Personally I think his performance in regular PGAT events will go up, not the opposite. 

I think both numbers regress. I don't think Zalatoris is the 2.5 strokes gained monster he is at the majors, nor do I think he's the 1.0 strokes gained solid pro. The truth is probably in the middle somewhere. I'd bet that his major performance falls off and his non-major performance improves. 

 

9 minutes ago, betarhoalphadelta said:

I don't know where Homa will go as it's a question of whether he's "found" something that will persist long-term or whether this is just a good phase of his career.

I don't think Homa has "found" something, or at least I don't believe he's found something in the traditional sense, i.e. swing feel or mechanical change. Besides Aim Point I guess. I think the only thing he's actually found is confidence. Could just be a good phase but he has such a well rounded game that I think he has some staying power.   

[Fairways_and_Greens]

3 hours ago, Dutch1008 said:

Very cool. 

 

I'd argue that the GOAT isn't an outlier. His strokes gained is an outlier but his performance in majors is perfectly in line with his performance in non-majors. Kind of goes against the idea that he only cared about the majors. Tiger will rip your heart out at Augusta or the Greater Milwaukee Open. He doesn't discriminate. 

 

The true outliers within this analysis are Will Zalatoris and Max Homa. While still very early for both, to date, Zalatoris has really outperformed his baseline at majors while Max has underperformed significantly. Both guys are above average tour pros (+1 SG) but Zalatoris transforms to Tom Watson at the majors while Homa is basically a KFT player. 

 

Considering each players current form, I'd imagine there will be a pretty hard regression to the mean for both. Max's all around game is too good to continue to underperform, and Will's putting is too terrible to stay at those lofty heights. 

 

Good find and thanks for sharing.  

 

 

GOAT is a .5 Strikes Gained outlier on both axis! Definition of GOAT

[Golfnutgalen]

Very cool indeed. If anybody else was wondering that clown avatar is Greg Norman. 🤭

[mbb86]

Over-performed:

1. Will Zalatoris

2. Brooks 

3. Angel Cabrera

4. Louis Oosthuizen

5. John Daly

 

Under-performed

1. Post 2014 Rory

2. Post 2017 Jordan Spieth

3. Arguably John Rahm. He's really f***ing good for having "only" won one major

4. Monty, obv

5. US Open Phil

6. Sergio

Edited March 30 by mbb86

[iBanesto]

10 hours ago, Golfnutgalen said:

Very cool indeed. If anybody else was wondering that clown avatar is Greg Norman. 🤭

 

Clowns are funny though...

 

[Chopper1986]

10 hours ago, mbb86 said:

Over-performed:

1. Will Zalatoris

2. Brooks 

3. Angel Cabrera

4. Louis Oosthuizen

5. John Daly

 

Under-performed

1. Post 2014 Rory

2. Post 2017 Jordan Spieth

3. Arguably John Rahm. He's really f***ing good for having "only" won one major

4. Monty, obv

5. US Open Phil

6. Sergio

I would also add Justin Thomas, and possibly JDay to the list of underperformers for the same reason as Rahmbo. I would say Rahm is the better of the group, but for a few seasons JD and JT were the "can't miss" players. Overperformer I would add Webb Simpson and Zach Johnson. Would say these 2 both squeezed everything and more out of their talent

[stinger_gc]

12 hours ago, mbb86 said:

Over-performed:

1. Will Zalatoris

2. Brooks 

3. Angel Cabrera

4. Louis Oosthuizen

5. John Daly

 

Under-performed

1. Post 2014 Rory

2. Post 2017 Jordan Spieth

3. Arguably John Rahm. He's really f***ing good for having "only" won one major

4. Monty, obv

5. US Open Phil

6. Sergio

Phil chokes US Opens away. 8 top 5s and 10 top 10s in a event isn’t underperforming 😂

[smashdn]

Before I saw the graph I was thinking Zalatoris as an over and Rory as an under.

 

I don't think Tiger is an outlier in the sense that he won or lost more majors than expected, he is right on the line.  The players that are farther from the line (mean maybe) are performing further from expectations one way or the other.

 

Guys way above the line "turn it up for the majors."  Guys well below the line "fold under major pressure."  Guys very near the line perform as expected in relation to strokes gained in majors compared to strokes gained in non-majors.  Matteo Monnasero and Tiger perform similarly in this regard.  The difference is in the amount of strokes gained between the two.

 

So there is data behind Bruce "focusing on the majors."

Edited March 30 by smashdn

[GatorNate11]

@Fairways_and_Greens I will never forgive you for my own actions of clicking the link and seeing that photo.

 

Has Willy Z ever said why he suddenly plays a different level of golf at majors? Does he prep different or does dude only really care 4x’s/year? Genuinely curious

[stinger_gc]

1 minute ago, GatorNate11 said:

@Fairways_and_Greens I will never forgive you for my own actions of clicking the link and seeing that photo.

 

Has Willy Z ever said why he suddenly plays a different level of golf at majors? Does he prep different or does dude only really care 4x’s/year? Genuinely curious

Less emphasis on putting more emphasis on ball striking 

[Dave230]

3 hours ago, Chopper1986 said:

I would also add Justin Thomas, and possibly JDay to the list of underperformers for the same reason as Rahmbo. I would say Rahm is the better of the group, but for a few seasons JD and JT were the "can't miss" players. Overperformer I would add Webb Simpson and Zach Johnson. Would say these 2 both squeezed everything and more out of their talent

I disagree about Justin Thomas, 2 majors at 29 is pretty good, the second major makes all the difference and puts him ahead of the other two you mentioned, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia, level with DJ.

 

He was only ever number one for 5 weeks, considering his age and trajectory, 2 majors is pretty good, you’d expect him to finish with maybe 4 or 5.

 

Agreed on Day, he probably could have won a Masters and definitely the PGA he lost to Jimmy Walker, lost narrowly there. Rahm is still young enough that one major is okay, but realistically the pressure is on, he has to win a major this year or next.

Edited March 30 by Dave230

[gvogel]

Looks like Tom Watson did a good job of preparing for majors.  Another guy that did pretty well, compared to the rest of his career: Ben Crenshaw.

 

And, yes, I am old enough to have idolized both of them. 😁

[m d g]

The over-performers are whoever wins.

 

They get the money, trophy, and coffee.

 

Everyone else gets a set of steak knives...

 

[Chopper1986]

1 hour ago, Dave230 said:

I disagree about Justin Thomas, 2 majors at 29 is pretty good, the second major makes all the difference and puts him ahead of the other two you mentioned, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia, level with DJ.

 

He was only ever number one for 5 weeks, considering his age and trajectory, 2 majors is pretty good, you’d expect him to finish with maybe 4 or 5.

 

Agreed on Day, he probably could have won a Masters and definitely the PGA he lost to Jimmy Walker, lost narrowly there. Rahm is still young enough that one major is okay, but realistically the pressure is on, he has to win a major this year or next.

I had completely forgot about JT's second PGA last year, absolutely slipped out of my memory! 🙂 In that case, yes agree JT is probably over performing, or at least good middle ground. Especially compared to a Scott, Rose, Sergio, and Day. They were/are 4 people I would have expected more than 1 major a piece.  

[dfeldss]

Let's slap a NSFW warning on that GN picture

[Hawkeye77]

Even thinking of Captain Spaulding scares me!! Those Rob Zombie movies are a fun watch in an uncomfortable way. 

[Ghostwedge]

12 hours ago, Chopper1986 said:

I would also add Justin Thomas, and possibly JDay to the list of underperformers for the same reason as Rahmbo. I would say Rahm is the better of the group, but for a few seasons JD and JT were the "can't miss" players. Overperformer I would add Webb Simpson and Zach Johnson. Would say these 2 both squeezed everything and more out of their talent

If you have squeezed everything out of your talent you haven't over performed.

Your talent level just isn't on Tiger and Jack's level.

[3whacker]

Underpreform: all the non major winners that have won multiple times on tour

 

1. Steve Stricker

 

2. Matt Kuchar

 

3. Brandt Snedeker

 

4. Charles Howell

 

Over preformance...I want to say Brooks K but with multiple majors he has proved its no fluke

 

1. Andy North

 

 

[Shilgy]

20 hours ago, 3whacker said:

Underpreform: all the non major winners that have won multiple times on tour

 

1. Steve Stricker

 

2. Matt Kuchar

 

3. Brandt Snedeker

 

4. Charles Howell

 

Over preformance...I want to say Brooks K but with multiple majors he has proved its no fluke

 

1. Andy North

 

 

Any player that has more major wins than other wins has over performed in majors and would likely regress.
 

 Unless he’s your example and will only be playing majors for the rest of his life.**

 

 

 

 

 

**hopefully🤞

[PedronNiall]

I'd like to see the actual line of best fit for all the data points alongside the slope of 1 that shows parity in both Majors and non-Majors. I agree with smashdn's assessment that people on the line of parity reflects players who show up all the time. People like Koepka are no surprise to be above the line. In fact, I'd expect to see a lot of multiple major winners above the slope of one because Koepka's "I only show up for Majors" claim probably applies to a lot of them overall.

 

It takes a lot of focus to build up to and peak for those four weeks every year. I can't imagine most people have the love for anything to carry the mindset needed for that into almost every event they play regardless of it just being a normal tour stop. Eyeballing it the actual line of best fit probably tends towards better performance in the ones that count the most.

 

I'd fool around with it myself but it looks like you need a plus membership to access the API and I'm not interested enough to pay just for hoots & toots.

[elwhippy]

Xander. Cantlay. Davis Love. 

[golferdude54]

I always thought DJ would be considered the Greg Norman of this era when it came to majors, and it seems the stats back it up. 
 

About Nick Faldo, it seems that this is biased towards amount of PGA Tour wins rather than European Tour wins, I would not call him an over performer at all.

[Golfnutgalen]

8 minutes ago, golferdude54 said:

I always thought DJ would be considered the Greg Norman of this era when it came to majors, and it seems the stats back it up. 
 

About Nick Faldo, it seems that this is biased towards amount of PGA Tour wins rather than European Tour wins, I would not call him an over performer at all.

 

Faldo played in some 230 PGA Tour events up until his last win with a 4% win rate (9/230). Maybe we overvalue majors? In comparison Greg Norman was 20/270 (7.4%) up until 1997 as well and he was a couple years older than Faldo by then. Neither player won a PGA Tour event after that season which is why I cut it off there. 

 

Faldo has another 24 European Tour Titles to Norman's 12, but if you want to go there Norman has another 33 Australian Tour wins and 20 others to Faldo's 9 other wins.

 

And then there's Ernie Els with 19 wins on the PGA Tour (5.5% win rate thru age 42) including 4 majors and another 22 Euro wins + 30 others. I think it's fair to call Ernie the best of the bunch. Speaking of Ernie, he's the middle dot just to the left of Rory in the picture.