Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?

[bluedot]

So now 4 handicaps can't drive the ball. Sheesh. Now we are off into the absurd. Are the 4 handicaps you guys supposedly are or playing with 60 years old and 4 handicaps from the senior tees? Seriously. Again, just comparing what I've seen playing with actual LPGA players. I've played with a couple who I wonder if could break 80 from 7000 yards.

 

First of all, I didn't say a 4 handicap "can't drive the ball"; in fact, every 4 handicap I've ever played with was at least an above average driver of the ball! What I said is that a 4 handicap can't drive the ball an average of 280+, or, in other words, within 10 yards of the average on the PGA Tour.

 

The USGA says a SCRATCH golfer AVERAGES 250 off the tee. I know that it is popular here to wildly overestimate driving distances, but the USGA isn't pulling its stats out of thin air, and there is just no way an average 4 handicap is hitting the ball 280. That just isn't real.

 

You can think whatever you want about whether or not a 4 can beat an LPGA pro, but I assure you the LPGA pro isn't giving up 50 yds off the tee to a 4 handicap.

[isaacbm]

Surfduffer:

 

You do realize this is the 27th page in this thread correct?

 

It was cleared up about 24 pages ago that the idea was not if it is possible, but if it is likely. Or more to the point, how much would you be willing

to bet if one played against the other. Are you telling me that you'd confidently take a 4 handicap over a +2 if there was a lot of money on the line? Handicaps transfer to any tee box. That's the whole point of the handicap system.

 

So again, what would you be willing to bet that the +2 handicap 75th ranked LPGA Tour pro (this number is conclusive, not my opinion) would lose to the 4 handicap man?

 

Arguing about "possible" is pointless because a million one-off events can happen on any given day to change the outcome. That's not really the debate though. The debate is at what level would a mans handicap have to be in order for him to compare to the LPGA players.

 

And it's not opinion, it's math. A traveling +2 handicap (tournament scores only ) would be comparable to the 75-100 ranked LPGA tour player.

[TheGeekGolfer]

Going all the way back to the original question that started this thread:

Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?

 

 

As someone who's played with a number of middle of the road and lower ranked LPGA players the answer is without a doubt yes. The longer the course, the better the odds. Face it, on a 6500 yard Par 72 a low handicap guy most likely is going to have a very big distance advantage over a number of the lower ranked players I've played with who are very challenged in the distance department. Same thing on a 6900 yard par 70 where some of the shorter LPGA players would need 3 shots to reach the green on some of the longer par 4s and would be hitting 3-woods into others.

 

The distance advantage is not something to be taken lightly. Consider this player:

Christine Song, Average Driving Distance 230.651

 

Not picking on this player but the numbers jumped out at me. She made $24,000 on tour this year. Stop and consider losing 50 or 60+ yards off each tee then potentially having a 3-wood second or may not even able to get home in two against a 4-handicap guy who may be playing the same hole driver 8-iron or who can hit a 3-iron off a tee well past her driver.

 

I picked another random player from the link at the bottom of my post who has status for 2016 and her average driving distance is

Average Driving Distance 209.50

 

 

How competitive would that particular LPGA player be with a 4 handicap guy who averages 280? Length isn't everything but when the disparity is that big it can't be overlooked.

 

There is also an enormous difference between the elite LPGA players and some of the ones I've played with who didn't last more than a season or two out there. The best player I've played with made it as high as 11th in the world and had a long and profitable career and some of the lower ranked players I've played with couldn't beat her if their lives depended on it. Not even in the same league. The spread really is that big if you've actually played with a number of them.

 

The question is "CAN", not "will every time". The question isn't elite LPGA players or LPGA players who've won events on the tour.

 

Could a 4-handicap beat Lydia Ko, absolutely not. Could a 4-handicap beat players at the very bottom of the following list of players who have status for 2016, you bet cha and the odds would be better than some on here would think.

 

http://www.lpga.com/...e_9-26-2016.pdf

 

The next 4 handicap I play with that averages 280 off the tee will be the first one. The AVERAGE on the PGA Tour is 289.7, for crying out loud; the idea of a 4 handicap driving the ball within 10 yards of the Tour average are pretty much the same as the odds of getting gored by a unicorn. There is NO way, ZERO, that 4 handicaps are hitting the ball 280; I'd guess (and it's only that, btw) that most 4 handicaps rarely reach, much less exceed, 250 off the tee.

 

And before anybody gives anecdotes about somebody they know that can hit the ball a mile but is wild, understand that there is now a mountain of data that Mark Broadie has accumulated and analyzed that tells us that the same skill level that allows players to hit the ball a long way also enables them to hit the ball straighter than average as well.

 

4 handicaps are good players in pretty much all phases of the game, and excellent in most. But if they could hit it 280+ off the tee, they wouldn't be 4 handicaps.

 

And they can't beat LPGA pros except in one statistically improbable occurrence: The 4 has his best round in years on the same day the LPGA pro has her worst. That's the only way, and it is a remote possibility, to say the least.

So now 4 handicaps can't drive the ball. Sheesh. Now we are off into the absurd. Are the 4 handicaps you guys supposedly are or playing with 60 years old and 4 handicaps from the senior tees? Seriously. Again, just comparing what I've seen playing with actual LPGA players. I've played with a couple who I wonder if could break 80 from 7000 yards.

I'm a 48 yr old, 7.6 HDCP, and I average about 250 yds off the tee and I know "where it's going". Why am I only a 7.6 and not lower? A few bad irons shots a round and a few up and downs that don't happen and maybe a 3-putt once or twice a round. Mix those things around and I'm a 7.6, and NOT a 4 or 5. I play reguraly with a 4 HDCP and he averages 285 off the tee and hits his 3-wood 250 average. Yes, average, not 'occasionaly'. Why is he a 4 and NOT a scratch? Well, he used to be a scratch, but now he misses a few more irons a round, misses a few more putts, and misses a few up and down for par saves. That comes out to a 4 HDCP rather than 'scratch'. That's how math, golf, and sports work. I would bet that MOST 4 HDCP golfers average in the 280 yd range, that's what has enabled them to get to a 4 HDCP. It's easier to hit 8-10 drives a round that average 280 yds, than 18 or more quality iron shots within 20 ft for decent par / birdie attempts.

[bluedot]

Going all the way back to the original question that started this thread:

Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?

 

 

As someone who's played with a number of middle of the road and lower ranked LPGA players the answer is without a doubt yes. The longer the course, the better the odds. Face it, on a 6500 yard Par 72 a low handicap guy most likely is going to have a very big distance advantage over a number of the lower ranked players I've played with who are very challenged in the distance department. Same thing on a 6900 yard par 70 where some of the shorter LPGA players would need 3 shots to reach the green on some of the longer par 4s and would be hitting 3-woods into others.

 

The distance advantage is not something to be taken lightly. Consider this player:

Christine Song, Average Driving Distance 230.651

 

Not picking on this player but the numbers jumped out at me. She made $24,000 on tour this year. Stop and consider losing 50 or 60+ yards off each tee then potentially having a 3-wood second or may not even able to get home in two against a 4-handicap guy who may be playing the same hole driver 8-iron or who can hit a 3-iron off a tee well past her driver.

 

I picked another random player from the link at the bottom of my post who has status for 2016 and her average driving distance is

Average Driving Distance 209.50

 

 

How competitive would that particular LPGA player be with a 4 handicap guy who averages 280? Length isn't everything but when the disparity is that big it can't be overlooked.

 

There is also an enormous difference between the elite LPGA players and some of the ones I've played with who didn't last more than a season or two out there. The best player I've played with made it as high as 11th in the world and had a long and profitable career and some of the lower ranked players I've played with couldn't beat her if their lives depended on it. Not even in the same league. The spread really is that big if you've actually played with a number of them.

 

The question is "CAN", not "will every time". The question isn't elite LPGA players or LPGA players who've won events on the tour.

 

Could a 4-handicap beat Lydia Ko, absolutely not. Could a 4-handicap beat players at the very bottom of the following list of players who have status for 2016, you bet cha and the odds would be better than some on here would think.

 

http://www.lpga.com/...e_9-26-2016.pdf

 

The next 4 handicap I play with that averages 280 off the tee will be the first one. The AVERAGE on the PGA Tour is 289.7, for crying out loud; the idea of a 4 handicap driving the ball within 10 yards of the Tour average are pretty much the same as the odds of getting gored by a unicorn. There is NO way, ZERO, that 4 handicaps are hitting the ball 280; I'd guess (and it's only that, btw) that most 4 handicaps rarely reach, much less exceed, 250 off the tee.

 

And before anybody gives anecdotes about somebody they know that can hit the ball a mile but is wild, understand that there is now a mountain of data that Mark Broadie has accumulated and analyzed that tells us that the same skill level that allows players to hit the ball a long way also enables them to hit the ball straighter than average as well.

 

4 handicaps are good players in pretty much all phases of the game, and excellent in most. But if they could hit it 280+ off the tee, they wouldn't be 4 handicaps.

 

And they can't beat LPGA pros except in one statistically improbable occurrence: The 4 has his best round in years on the same day the LPGA pro has her worst. That's the only way, and it is a remote possibility, to say the least.

So now 4 handicaps can't drive the ball. Sheesh. Now we are off into the absurd. Are the 4 handicaps you guys supposedly are or playing with 60 years old and 4 handicaps from the senior tees? Seriously. Again, just comparing what I've seen playing with actual LPGA players. I've played with a couple who I wonder if could break 80 from 7000 yards.

I'm a 48 yr old, 7.6 HDCP, and I average about 250 yds off the tee and I know "where it's going". Why am I only a 7.6 and not lower? A few bad irons shots a round and a few up and downs that don't happen and maybe a 3-putt once or twice a round. Mix those things around and I'm a 7.6, and NOT a 4 or 5. I play reguraly with a 4 HDCP and he averages 285 off the tee and hits his 3-wood 250 average. Yes, average, not 'occasionaly'. Why is he a 4 and NOT a scratch? Well, he used to be a scratch, but now he misses a few more irons a round, misses a few more putts, and misses a few up and down for par saves. That comes out to a 4 HDCP rather than 'scratch'. That's how math, golf, and sports work. I would bet that MOST 4 HDCP golfers average in the 280 yd range, that's what has enabled them to get to a 4 HDCP. It's easier to hit 8-10 drives a round that average 280 yds, than 18 or more quality iron shots within 20 ft for decent par / birdie attempts.

 

Again...

 

The PGA Tour average in 2016 is 289.7.

The USGA says that a scratch golfer is one who AVERAGES 250 off the tee and can get to a 470 yd. hole in two.

Mark Broadie says good amateur players average 240, and average amateur players average 200.

 

So if you play with a guy who is a 4 index who is hitting it 285 on average, he's an aberration, not the norm. The number of amateur golfers that average 280 is a tiny, tiny subset of all golfers, and almost none of them carry a 4 index.

[SurfDuffer]

I guess its all about frame of reference. I've played with a number of LPGA players and I play with single digit players who play all the way back. The single digit players I play with are all long players. I can assure you the low handicap players I play with would have a pretty even shot against some of the lower ranked LPGA players I've played with from the men's tees or back. The elite players, not a chance.

 

PS: Regarding the handicap system, in theory it should translate from tee box to tee box but in reality I have serious doubts about that. A guy who's built his handicap shooting mid 70s to 80 from the tips is going to fair better than someone who is generally playing from 500+ yards shorter. In theory perhaps it shouldn't make a difference but in reality world it does.

[juliette91]

Going all the way back to the original question that started this thread:

Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?

 

 

As someone who's played with a number of middle of the road and lower ranked LPGA players the answer is without a doubt yes. The longer the course, the better the odds. Face it, on a 6500 yard Par 72 a low handicap guy most likely is going to have a very big distance advantage over a number of the lower ranked players I've played with who are very challenged in the distance department. Same thing on a 6900 yard par 70 where some of the shorter LPGA players would need 3 shots to reach the green on some of the longer par 4s and would be hitting 3-woods into others.

 

The distance advantage is not something to be taken lightly. Consider this player:

Christine Song, Average Driving Distance 230.651

 

Not picking on this player but the numbers jumped out at me. She made $24,000 on tour this year. Stop and consider losing 50 or 60+ yards off each tee then potentially having a 3-wood second or may not even able to get home in two against a 4-handicap guy who may be playing the same hole driver 8-iron or who can hit a 3-iron off a tee well past her driver.

 

I picked another random player from the link at the bottom of my post who has status for 2016 and her average driving distance is

Average Driving Distance 209.50

 

 

How competitive would that particular LPGA player be with a 4 handicap guy who averages 280? Length isn't everything but when the disparity is that big it can't be overlooked.

 

There is also an enormous difference between the elite LPGA players and some of the ones I've played with who didn't last more than a season or two out there. The best player I've played with made it as high as 11th in the world and had a long and profitable career and some of the lower ranked players I've played with couldn't beat her if their lives depended on it. Not even in the same league. The spread really is that big if you've actually played with a number of them.

 

The question is "CAN", not "will every time". The question isn't elite LPGA players or LPGA players who've won events on the tour.

 

Could a 4-handicap beat Lydia Ko, absolutely not. Could a 4-handicap beat players at the very bottom of the following list of players who have status for 2016, you bet cha and the odds would be better than some on here would think.

 

http://www.lpga.com/...e_9-26-2016.pdf

 

The next 4 handicap I play with that averages 280 off the tee will be the first one. The AVERAGE on the PGA Tour is 289.7, for crying out loud; the idea of a 4 handicap driving the ball within 10 yards of the Tour average are pretty much the same as the odds of getting gored by a unicorn. There is NO way, ZERO, that 4 handicaps are hitting the ball 280; I'd guess (and it's only that, btw) that most 4 handicaps rarely reach, much less exceed, 250 off the tee.

 

And before anybody gives anecdotes about somebody they know that can hit the ball a mile but is wild, understand that there is now a mountain of data that Mark Broadie has accumulated and analyzed that tells us that the same skill level that allows players to hit the ball a long way also enables them to hit the ball straighter than average as well.

 

4 handicaps are good players in pretty much all phases of the game, and excellent in most. But if they could hit it 280+ off the tee, they wouldn't be 4 handicaps.

 

And they can't beat LPGA pros except in one statistically improbable occurrence: The 4 has his best round in years on the same day the LPGA pro has her worst. That's the only way, and it is a remote possibility, to say the least.

So now 4 handicaps can't drive the ball. Sheesh. Now we are off into the absurd. Are the 4 handicaps you guys supposedly are or playing with 60 years old and 4 handicaps from the senior tees? Seriously. Again, just comparing what I've seen playing with actual LPGA players. I've played with a couple who I wonder if could break 80 from 7000 yards.

I'm a 48 yr old, 7.6 HDCP, and I average about 250 yds off the tee and I know "where it's going". Why am I only a 7.6 and not lower? A few bad irons shots a round and a few up and downs that don't happen and maybe a 3-putt once or twice a round. Mix those things around and I'm a 7.6, and NOT a 4 or 5. I play reguraly with a 4 HDCP and he averages 285 off the tee and hits his 3-wood 250 average. Yes, average, not 'occasionaly'. Why is he a 4 and NOT a scratch? Well, he used to be a scratch, but now he misses a few more irons a round, misses a few more putts, and misses a few up and down for par saves. That comes out to a 4 HDCP rather than 'scratch'. That's how math, golf, and sports work. I would bet that MOST 4 HDCP golfers average in the 280 yd range, that's what has enabled them to get to a 4 HDCP. It's easier to hit 8-10 drives a round that average 280 yds, than 18 or more quality iron shots within 20 ft for decent par / birdie attempts.

 

Well, just to defend us other 4 handicap players (yes, mine compared to women's slope ratings but uses the same metrics) 280 off the tee average? That I'm afraid is a statement you'll never be able to back up. Sorry, but it doesn't pass the common sense test. I like the point you're making, it's a good one, why long hitters are not scratch, but the converse is true, too. I'm a straight hitter with a good short game but many par 4 holes I'm hitting 3 hybrids into and while I'm accurate that's a difficult task to accomplish consistently. So I end up as a 4 primarily because I can't hit it far enough to get to the higher much less middle irons and while my short game is good it's not nearly tour great. Lots of ways to make the same score relative to the slope rating.

[bluedot]

I guess its all about frame of reference. I've played with a number of LPGA players and I play with single digit players who play all the way back. The single digit players I play with are all long players. I can assure you the low handicap players I play with would have a pretty even shot against some of the lower ranked LPGA players I've played with from the men's tees or back. The elite players, not a chance.

 

PS: Regarding the handicap system, in theory it should translate from tee box to tee box but in reality I have serious doubts about that. A guy who's built his handicap shooting mid 70s to 80 from the tips is going to fair better than someone who is generally playing from 500+ yards shorter. In theory perhaps it shouldn't make a difference but in reality world it does.

 

It DOES make a difference, which is where course rating comes in. My index is based on differentials, and differentials change as you move back to a longer set of tees. On my home course, there is a three stroke difference between the gold tees (6844) and the blue tees (6231) and three more strokes between the blue and the white (5648). So a golfer with an index of 4 from the white tees would have to shoot 71 to play to his index from the whites, while he'd have to shoot 74 from the blues and 77 from the golds.

 

But remember this; he doesn't have to shoot that EVERY time to maintain his 4 handicap. If he decides to move back to the golds permanently, he only has to shoot 77 or better one round out of every 4 or so to still be a 4. In other words, his AVERAGE from the golds could go way up (and that might well happen) but his index might change little if any.

 

And btw, it works in the other direction, too, and may even be tougher. The 4 from the gold tees has to break par once out of every 4 rounds from the whites to maintain his 4, which is at least as tough as what the guy moving back faces.

[isaacbm]

I guess its all about frame of reference. I've played with a number of LPGA players and I play with single digit players who play all the way back. The single digit players I play with are all long players. I can assure you the low handicap players I play with would have a pretty even shot against some of the lower ranked LPGA players I've played with from the men's tees or back. The elite players, not a chance.

 

PS: Regarding the handicap system, in theory it should translate from tee box to tee box but in reality I have serious doubts about that. A guy who's built his handicap shooting mid 70s to 80 from the tips is going to fair better than someone who is generally playing from 500+ yards shorter. In theory perhaps it shouldn't make a difference but in reality world it does.

 

I'm not saying that your experiences aren't relevant. I've personally played with 4 LPGA major champions and five or six other players on that tour. Some were long, some were short. But everyone of them easily had the capability to shoot 74-76 every day on a course rated 75 that played 7300 yards. most 4 handicaps would struggle to break 80 on the same course.

 

Again, how much of your own money would you be willing to put up to have a four handicap play against even the shortest LPGA player between 75th and 100 in the world rankings ?? If they were to play 10 rounds in a row I would be willing to put up $5000 per round on the LPGA Player.

if they were just playing one round I wouldn't want to risk quite as much just like if they were playing nine holes I would want to risk less just like if they were playing one hole I would want to risk less still.

 

Over any length of time though??? The numbers are so overwhelmingly in favour of the LPGA player that I would quickly become a rich man .

 

And honestly, I'm pretty sure I could set up a match like this with a few phone calls if somebody actually wanted to put up five grand !

[Homerun2Birdie]

I'm a 4 handicapper and I would put my money on the LPGA player if we teed it up together haha.

[TheGeekGolfer]

Going all the way back to the original question that started this thread:

Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?

 

 

As someone who's played with a number of middle of the road and lower ranked LPGA players the answer is without a doubt yes. The longer the course, the better the odds. Face it, on a 6500 yard Par 72 a low handicap guy most likely is going to have a very big distance advantage over a number of the lower ranked players I've played with who are very challenged in the distance department. Same thing on a 6900 yard par 70 where some of the shorter LPGA players would need 3 shots to reach the green on some of the longer par 4s and would be hitting 3-woods into others.

 

The distance advantage is not something to be taken lightly. Consider this player:

Christine Song, Average Driving Distance 230.651

 

Not picking on this player but the numbers jumped out at me. She made $24,000 on tour this year. Stop and consider losing 50 or 60+ yards off each tee then potentially having a 3-wood second or may not even able to get home in two against a 4-handicap guy who may be playing the same hole driver 8-iron or who can hit a 3-iron off a tee well past her driver.

 

I picked another random player from the link at the bottom of my post who has status for 2016 and her average driving distance is

Average Driving Distance 209.50

 

 

How competitive would that particular LPGA player be with a 4 handicap guy who averages 280? Length isn't everything but when the disparity is that big it can't be overlooked.

 

There is also an enormous difference between the elite LPGA players and some of the ones I've played with who didn't last more than a season or two out there. The best player I've played with made it as high as 11th in the world and had a long and profitable career and some of the lower ranked players I've played with couldn't beat her if their lives depended on it. Not even in the same league. The spread really is that big if you've actually played with a number of them.

 

The question is "CAN", not "will every time". The question isn't elite LPGA players or LPGA players who've won events on the tour.

 

Could a 4-handicap beat Lydia Ko, absolutely not. Could a 4-handicap beat players at the very bottom of the following list of players who have status for 2016, you bet cha and the odds would be better than some on here would think.

 

http://www.lpga.com/...e_9-26-2016.pdf

 

The next 4 handicap I play with that averages 280 off the tee will be the first one. The AVERAGE on the PGA Tour is 289.7, for crying out loud; the idea of a 4 handicap driving the ball within 10 yards of the Tour average are pretty much the same as the odds of getting gored by a unicorn. There is NO way, ZERO, that 4 handicaps are hitting the ball 280; I'd guess (and it's only that, btw) that most 4 handicaps rarely reach, much less exceed, 250 off the tee.

 

And before anybody gives anecdotes about somebody they know that can hit the ball a mile but is wild, understand that there is now a mountain of data that Mark Broadie has accumulated and analyzed that tells us that the same skill level that allows players to hit the ball a long way also enables them to hit the ball straighter than average as well.

 

4 handicaps are good players in pretty much all phases of the game, and excellent in most. But if they could hit it 280+ off the tee, they wouldn't be 4 handicaps.

 

And they can't beat LPGA pros except in one statistically improbable occurrence: The 4 has his best round in years on the same day the LPGA pro has her worst. That's the only way, and it is a remote possibility, to say the least.

So now 4 handicaps can't drive the ball. Sheesh. Now we are off into the absurd. Are the 4 handicaps you guys supposedly are or playing with 60 years old and 4 handicaps from the senior tees? Seriously. Again, just comparing what I've seen playing with actual LPGA players. I've played with a couple who I wonder if could break 80 from 7000 yards.

I'm a 48 yr old, 7.6 HDCP, and I average about 250 yds off the tee and I know "where it's going". Why am I only a 7.6 and not lower? A few bad irons shots a round and a few up and downs that don't happen and maybe a 3-putt once or twice a round. Mix those things around and I'm a 7.6, and NOT a 4 or 5. I play reguraly with a 4 HDCP and he averages 285 off the tee and hits his 3-wood 250 average. Yes, average, not 'occasionaly'. Why is he a 4 and NOT a scratch? Well, he used to be a scratch, but now he misses a few more irons a round, misses a few more putts, and misses a few up and down for par saves. That comes out to a 4 HDCP rather than 'scratch'. That's how math, golf, and sports work. I would bet that MOST 4 HDCP golfers average in the 280 yd range, that's what has enabled them to get to a 4 HDCP. It's easier to hit 8-10 drives a round that average 280 yds, than 18 or more quality iron shots within 20 ft for decent par / birdie attempts.

 

Again...

 

The PGA Tour average in 2016 is 289.7.

The USGA says that a scratch golfer is one who AVERAGES 250 off the tee and can get to a 470 yd. hole in two.

Mark Broadie says good amateur players average 240, and average amateur players average 200.

 

So if you play with a guy who is a 4 index who is hitting it 285 on average, he's an aberration, not the norm. The number of amateur golfers that average 280 is a tiny, tiny subset of all golfers, and almost none of them carry a 4 index.

Correct, but you were saying that 'The next 4 handicap I play with that averages 280 off the tee will be the first one." If that's the case, then you don't have a very big playing field. Plus, when the USGA says that a scratch golfer is one that averages 250 off the tee. What that is really saying is that "to be a scratch golfer, you need to average at least 250 off the tee", not that if you took all the players who are scratch, they only average 250 off the tee. That's a distinct difference.

[TheGeekGolfer]

I guess its all about frame of reference. I've played with a number of LPGA players and I play with single digit players who play all the way back. The single digit players I play with are all long players. I can assure you the low handicap players I play with would have a pretty even shot against some of the lower ranked LPGA players I've played with from the men's tees or back. The elite players, not a chance.

 

PS: Regarding the handicap system, in theory it should translate from tee box to tee box but in reality I have serious doubts about that. A guy who's built his handicap shooting mid 70s to 80 from the tips is going to fair better than someone who is generally playing from 500+ yards shorter. In theory perhaps it shouldn't make a difference but in reality world it does.

 

It DOES make a difference, which is where course rating comes in. My index is based on differentials, and differentials change as you move back to a longer set of tees. On my home course, there is a three stroke difference between the gold tees (6844) and the blue tees (6231) and three more strokes between the blue and the white (5648). So a golfer with an index of 4 from the white tees would have to shoot 71 to play to his index from the whites, while he'd have to shoot 74 from the blues and 77 from the golds.

 

But remember this; he doesn't have to shoot that EVERY time to maintain his 4 handicap. If he decides to move back to the golds permanently, he only has to shoot 77 or better one round out of every 4 or so to still be a 4. In other words, his AVERAGE from the golds could go way up (and that might well happen) but his index might change little if any.

 

And btw, it works in the other direction, too, and may even be tougher. The 4 from the gold tees has to break par once out of every 4 rounds from the whites to maintain his 4, which is at least as tough as what the guy moving back faces.

I believe it's HARDER to shoot your index when you move UP, depending on what your strengths are. If you drive it well, but your index is what it is (in the mid single digits) because of less than average iron play, chipping, and putting; then when you move up a set of tees, it does you NO GOOD. It took away your advantage.

[isaacbm]

I guess its all about frame of reference. I've played with a number of LPGA players and I play with single digit players who play all the way back. The single digit players I play with are all long players. I can assure you the low handicap players I play with would have a pretty even shot against some of the lower ranked LPGA players I've played with from the men's tees or back. The elite players, not a chance.

 

PS: Regarding the handicap system, in theory it should translate from tee box to tee box but in reality I have serious doubts about that. A guy who's built his handicap shooting mid 70s to 80 from the tips is going to fair better than someone who is generally playing from 500+ yards shorter. In theory perhaps it shouldn't make a difference but in reality world it does.

 

It DOES make a difference, which is where course rating comes in. My index is based on differentials, and differentials change as you move back to a longer set of tees. On my home course, there is a three stroke difference between the gold tees (6844) and the blue tees (6231) and three more strokes between the blue and the white (5648). So a golfer with an index of 4 from the white tees would have to shoot 71 to play to his index from the whites, while he'd have to shoot 74 from the blues and 77 from the golds.

 

But remember this; he doesn't have to shoot that EVERY time to maintain his 4 handicap. If he decides to move back to the golds permanently, he only has to shoot 77 or better one round out of every 4 or so to still be a 4. In other words, his AVERAGE from the golds could go way up (and that might well happen) but his index might change little if any.

 

And btw, it works in the other direction, too, and may even be tougher. The 4 from the gold tees has to break par once out of every 4 rounds from the whites to maintain his 4, which is at least as tough as what the guy moving back faces.

I believe it's HARDER to shoot your index when you move UP, depending on what your strengths are. If you drive it well, but your index is what it is (in the mid single digits) because of less than average iron play, chipping, and putting; then when you move up a set of tees, it does you NO GOOD. It took away your advantage.

 

Agree completely. It's way way way easier to be a 0 handicap if you play a course rated 75 every day then if you play a course rate at 69.

 

especially if you're a longer hitter

[oldschoolrocker]

I had the opportunity the last couple of weeks to observe two touraments played on the same course at virtually the same yardage. One senior am men with at least a plus 2 index and the other a fall NCAA ladies classic with 20 teams.

The top young ladies would have taken the men to the woodshed.

 

[starsail85]

I guess its all about frame of reference. I've played with a number of LPGA players and I play with single digit players who play all the way back. The single digit players I play with are all long players. I can assure you the low handicap players I play with would have a pretty even shot against some of the lower ranked LPGA players I've played with from the men's tees or back. The elite players, not a chance.

 

PS: Regarding the handicap system, in theory it should translate from tee box to tee box but in reality I have serious doubts about that. A guy who's built his handicap shooting mid 70s to 80 from the tips is going to fair better than someone who is generally playing from 500+ yards shorter. In theory perhaps it shouldn't make a difference but in reality world it does.

 

It DOES make a difference, which is where course rating comes in. My index is based on differentials, and differentials change as you move back to a longer set of tees. On my home course, there is a three stroke difference between the gold tees (6844) and the blue tees (6231) and three more strokes between the blue and the white (5648). So a golfer with an index of 4 from the white tees would have to shoot 71 to play to his index from the whites, while he'd have to shoot 74 from the blues and 77 from the golds.

 

But remember this; he doesn't have to shoot that EVERY time to maintain his 4 handicap. If he decides to move back to the golds permanently, he only has to shoot 77 or better one round out of every 4 or so to still be a 4. In other words, his AVERAGE from the golds could go way up (and that might well happen) but his index might change little if any.

 

And btw, it works in the other direction, too, and may even be tougher. The 4 from the gold tees has to break par once out of every 4 rounds from the whites to maintain his 4, which is at least as tough as what the guy moving back faces.

I believe it's HARDER to shoot your index when you move UP, depending on what your strengths are. If you drive it well, but your index is what it is (in the mid single digits) because of less than average iron play, chipping, and putting; then when you move up a set of tees, it does you NO GOOD. It took away your advantage.

 

Agree completely. It's way way way easier to be a 0 handicap if you play a course rated 75 every day then if you play a course rate at 69.

 

especially if you're a longer hitter

 

True

 

My handicap would be a few strokes higher if I played at a course 500 yards shorter with a much lower rating and CRUD greens

[Obee]

Going all the way back to the original question that started this thread:

Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?

 

 

As someone who's played with a number of middle of the road and lower ranked LPGA players the answer is without a doubt yes. The longer the course, the better the odds. Face it, on a 6500 yard Par 72 a low handicap guy most likely is going to have a very big distance advantage over a number of the lower ranked players I've played with who are very challenged in the distance department. Same thing on a 6900 yard par 70 where some of the shorter LPGA players would need 3 shots to reach the green on some of the longer par 4s and would be hitting 3-woods into others.

 

The distance advantage is not something to be taken lightly. Consider this player:

Christine Song, Average Driving Distance 230.651

 

Not picking on this player but the numbers jumped out at me. She made $24,000 on tour this year. Stop and consider losing 50 or 60+ yards off each tee then potentially having a 3-wood second or may not even able to get home in two against a 4-handicap guy who may be playing the same hole driver 8-iron or who can hit a 3-iron off a tee well past her driver.

 

I picked another random player from the link at the bottom of my post who has status for 2016 and her average driving distance is

Average Driving Distance 209.50

 

 

How competitive would that particular LPGA player be with a 4 handicap guy who averages 280? Length isn't everything but when the disparity is that big it can't be overlooked.

 

There is also an enormous difference between the elite LPGA players and some of the ones I've played with who didn't last more than a season or two out there. The best player I've played with made it as high as 11th in the world and had a long and profitable career and some of the lower ranked players I've played with couldn't beat her if their lives depended on it. Not even in the same league. The spread really is that big if you've actually played with a number of them.

 

The question is "CAN", not "will every time". The question isn't elite LPGA players or LPGA players who've won events on the tour.

 

Could a 4-handicap beat Lydia Ko, absolutely not. Could a 4-handicap beat players at the very bottom of the following list of players who have status for 2016, you bet cha and the odds would be better than some on here would think.

 

http://www.lpga.com/...e_9-26-2016.pdf

 

The next 4 handicap I play with that averages 280 off the tee will be the first one. The AVERAGE on the PGA Tour is 289.7, for crying out loud; the idea of a 4 handicap driving the ball within 10 yards of the Tour average are pretty much the same as the odds of getting gored by a unicorn. There is NO way, ZERO, that 4 handicaps are hitting the ball 280; I'd guess (and it's only that, btw) that most 4 handicaps rarely reach, much less exceed, 250 off the tee.

 

And before anybody gives anecdotes about somebody they know that can hit the ball a mile but is wild, understand that there is now a mountain of data that Mark Broadie has accumulated and analyzed that tells us that the same skill level that allows players to hit the ball a long way also enables them to hit the ball straighter than average as well.

 

4 handicaps are good players in pretty much all phases of the game, and excellent in most. But if they could hit it 280+ off the tee, they wouldn't be 4 handicaps.

 

And they can't beat LPGA pros except in one statistically improbable occurrence: The 4 has his best round in years on the same day the LPGA pro has her worst. That's the only way, and it is a remote possibility, to say the least.

 

Love ya, BD, but I know plenty of 2 - 6 handicap players that average every bit of 280. Many young baseball players or hockey players who start to get good at the game, but who are on the wild side hit it that far or farther. And, yes, I'm talking average, not their best drives.

[isaacbm]

Going all the way back to the original question that started this thread:

Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?

 

 

As someone who's played with a number of middle of the road and lower ranked LPGA players the answer is without a doubt yes. The longer the course, the better the odds. Face it, on a 6500 yard Par 72 a low handicap guy most likely is going to have a very big distance advantage over a number of the lower ranked players I've played with who are very challenged in the distance department. Same thing on a 6900 yard par 70 where some of the shorter LPGA players would need 3 shots to reach the green on some of the longer par 4s and would be hitting 3-woods into others.

 

The distance advantage is not something to be taken lightly. Consider this player:

Christine Song, Average Driving Distance 230.651

 

Not picking on this player but the numbers jumped out at me. She made $24,000 on tour this year. Stop and consider losing 50 or 60+ yards off each tee then potentially having a 3-wood second or may not even able to get home in two against a 4-handicap guy who may be playing the same hole driver 8-iron or who can hit a 3-iron off a tee well past her driver.

 

I picked another random player from the link at the bottom of my post who has status for 2016 and her average driving distance is

Average Driving Distance 209.50

 

 

How competitive would that particular LPGA player be with a 4 handicap guy who averages 280? Length isn't everything but when the disparity is that big it can't be overlooked.

 

There is also an enormous difference between the elite LPGA players and some of the ones I've played with who didn't last more than a season or two out there. The best player I've played with made it as high as 11th in the world and had a long and profitable career and some of the lower ranked players I've played with couldn't beat her if their lives depended on it. Not even in the same league. The spread really is that big if you've actually played with a number of them.

 

The question is "CAN", not "will every time". The question isn't elite LPGA players or LPGA players who've won events on the tour.

 

Could a 4-handicap beat Lydia Ko, absolutely not. Could a 4-handicap beat players at the very bottom of the following list of players who have status for 2016, you bet cha and the odds would be better than some on here would think.

 

http://www.lpga.com/...e_9-26-2016.pdf

 

The next 4 handicap I play with that averages 280 off the tee will be the first one. The AVERAGE on the PGA Tour is 289.7, for crying out loud; the idea of a 4 handicap driving the ball within 10 yards of the Tour average are pretty much the same as the odds of getting gored by a unicorn. There is NO way, ZERO, that 4 handicaps are hitting the ball 280; I'd guess (and it's only that, btw) that most 4 handicaps rarely reach, much less exceed, 250 off the tee.

 

And before anybody gives anecdotes about somebody they know that can hit the ball a mile but is wild, understand that there is now a mountain of data that Mark Broadie has accumulated and analyzed that tells us that the same skill level that allows players to hit the ball a long way also enables them to hit the ball straighter than average as well.

 

4 handicaps are good players in pretty much all phases of the game, and excellent in most. But if they could hit it 280+ off the tee, they wouldn't be 4 handicaps.

 

And they can't beat LPGA pros except in one statistically improbable occurrence: The 4 has his best round in years on the same day the LPGA pro has her worst. That's the only way, and it is a remote possibility, to say the least.

 

Love ya, BD, but I know plenty of 2 - 6 handicap players that average every bit of 280. Many young baseball players or hockey players who start to get good at the game, but who are on the wild side hit it that far or farther. And, yes, I'm talking average, not their best drives.

i'm with you on this one . I can't think of any of the 2 to 6 handicaps I know that don't hit it at least 270 on average. I still wouldn't put any of them up against the 75th ranked LPGA tour pro but they definitely can bomb it out there pretty good!

[Shilgy]

Blue dot has the usga rating method confused with how individuals actually play. The course rating is based on a scratch player that averages 250 of the tee and can reach a 470 yard hole. That IDs different than his statement that a scratch amateur does in fact average that distance.

I am definitely with Isaac on this. Yes there are 4 carriers that average 280. Few will be consistently in play and those that do have other major flaws that keep them from scoring well. A +2 will destroy the 4, on average. Hence Isaac's sucker $5k bet. :)

PS Isaac of you get any takers can I get half the action? :)

[isaacbm]

Blue dot has the usga rating method confused with how individuals actually play. The course rating is based on a scratch player that averages 250 of the tee and can reach a 470 yard hole. That IDs different than his statement that a scratch amateur does in fact average that distance.

I am definitely with Isaac on this. Yes there are 4 carriers that average 280. Few will be consistently in play and those that do have other major flaws that keep them from scoring well. A +2 will destroy the 4, on average. Hence Isaac's sucker $5k bet. :)

PS Isaac of you get any takers can I get half the action? :)

 

Not likely ! Im sure I'll have to share half the action with the girl I have in mind!!

[deadsolid...shank]

Blue dot has the usga rating method confused with how individuals actually play. The course rating is based on a scratch player that averages 250 of the tee and can reach a 470 yard hole. That IDs different than his statement that a scratch amateur does in fact average that distance.

I am definitely with Isaac on this. Yes there are 4 carriers that average 280. Few will be consistently in play and those that do have other major flaws that keep them from scoring well. A +2 will destroy the 4, on average. Hence Isaac's sucker $5k bet. :)

PS Isaac of you get any takers can I get half the action? :)

 

Wasn't that 250 number established quite a few years ago? Sounds like it might be outdated?

 

I think the better wager, or at least one that might make you consider which side to bet on, is can the four win once out of 10 matches (or 15 or 20, whatever the best number would be).

 

 

[SurfDuffer]

Going all the way back to the original question that started this thread:

Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?

 

 

As someone who's played with a number of middle of the road and lower ranked LPGA players the answer is without a doubt yes. The longer the course, the better the odds. Face it, on a 6500 yard Par 72 a low handicap guy most likely is going to have a very big distance advantage over a number of the lower ranked players I've played with who are very challenged in the distance department. Same thing on a 6900 yard par 70 where some of the shorter LPGA players would need 3 shots to reach the green on some of the longer par 4s and would be hitting 3-woods into others.

 

The distance advantage is not something to be taken lightly. Consider this player:

Christine Song, Average Driving Distance 230.651

 

Not picking on this player but the numbers jumped out at me. She made $24,000 on tour this year. Stop and consider losing 50 or 60+ yards off each tee then potentially having a 3-wood second or may not even able to get home in two against a 4-handicap guy who may be playing the same hole driver 8-iron or who can hit a 3-iron off a tee well past her driver.

 

I picked another random player from the link at the bottom of my post who has status for 2016 and her average driving distance is

Average Driving Distance 209.50

 

 

How competitive would that particular LPGA player be with a 4 handicap guy who averages 280? Length isn't everything but when the disparity is that big it can't be overlooked.

 

There is also an enormous difference between the elite LPGA players and some of the ones I've played with who didn't last more than a season or two out there. The best player I've played with made it as high as 11th in the world and had a long and profitable career and some of the lower ranked players I've played with couldn't beat her if their lives depended on it. Not even in the same league. The spread really is that big if you've actually played with a number of them.

 

The question is "CAN", not "will every time". The question isn't elite LPGA players or LPGA players who've won events on the tour.

 

Could a 4-handicap beat Lydia Ko, absolutely not. Could a 4-handicap beat players at the very bottom of the following list of players who have status for 2016, you bet cha and the odds would be better than some on here would think.

 

http://www.lpga.com/...e_9-26-2016.pdf

 

The next 4 handicap I play with that averages 280 off the tee will be the first one. The AVERAGE on the PGA Tour is 289.7, for crying out loud; the idea of a 4 handicap driving the ball within 10 yards of the Tour average are pretty much the same as the odds of getting gored by a unicorn. There is NO way, ZERO, that 4 handicaps are hitting the ball 280; I'd guess (and it's only that, btw) that most 4 handicaps rarely reach, much less exceed, 250 off the tee.

 

And before anybody gives anecdotes about somebody they know that can hit the ball a mile but is wild, understand that there is now a mountain of data that Mark Broadie has accumulated and analyzed that tells us that the same skill level that allows players to hit the ball a long way also enables them to hit the ball straighter than average as well.

 

4 handicaps are good players in pretty much all phases of the game, and excellent in most. But if they could hit it 280+ off the tee, they wouldn't be 4 handicaps.

 

And they can't beat LPGA pros except in one statistically improbable occurrence: The 4 has his best round in years on the same day the LPGA pro has her worst. That's the only way, and it is a remote possibility, to say the least.

 

Love ya, BD, but I know plenty of 2 - 6 handicap players that average every bit of 280. Many young baseball players or hockey players who start to get good at the game, but who are on the wild side hit it that far or farther. And, yes, I'm talking average, not their best drives.

 

Thank you.

[bluedot]

I love this website! Tons of guys that can hit it 300, and everybody knows lots of other guys that can hit it 280 and up (except not straight...). Doesn't matter what the Tour average is, doesn't matter what Mark Broadie's research shows, doesn't matter what the GPS watch on your wrist says.

 

But, hey, don't let reality get in the way of a good story, right? I love it.

[deadsolid...shank]

I love this website! Tons of guys that can hit it 300, and everybody knows lots of other guys that can hit it 280 and up (except not straight...). Doesn't matter what the Tour average is, doesn't matter what Mark Broadie's research shows, doesn't matter what the GPS watch on your wrist says.

 

But, hey, don't let reality get in the way of a good story, right? I love it.

 

In reality though don't you think that tour average is low? Measuring two holes doesn't really give an accurate representation of a true average. Those guys really move it out there. Even the "short" hitters (if there are any more of those?). I'm not a stats or research guy, just my opinion from observation.

 

I would agree that 280 is probably too high an average for most fours, but I play with several guys in that handicap range who, while they probably don't average 280 ( mainly due the typical amateur miss that only goes 210 or 220 and really skews the average down), they certainly get it out that far at least a few times per round.

[bph7]

I guess its all about frame of reference. I've played with a number of LPGA players and I play with single digit players who play all the way back. The single digit players I play with are all long players. I can assure you the low handicap players I play with would have a pretty even shot against some of the lower ranked LPGA players I've played with from the men's tees or back. The elite players, not a chance.

 

PS: Regarding the handicap system, in theory it should translate from tee box to tee box but in reality I have serious doubts about that. A guy who's built his handicap shooting mid 70s to 80 from the tips is going to fair better than someone who is generally playing from 500+ yards shorter. In theory perhaps it shouldn't make a difference but in reality world it does.

 

I'm not saying that your experiences aren't relevant. I've personally played with 4 LPGA major champions and five or six other players on that tour. Some were long, some were short. But everyone of them easily had the capability to shoot 74-76 every day on a course rated 75 that played 7300 yards. most 4 handicaps would struggle to break 80 on the same course.

 

Again, how much of your own money would you be willing to put up to have a four handicap play against even the shortest LPGA player between 75th and 100 in the world rankings ?? If they were to play 10 rounds in a row I would be willing to put up $5000 per round on the LPGA Player.

if they were just playing one round I wouldn't want to risk quite as much just like if they were playing nine holes I would want to risk less just like if they were playing one hole I would want to risk less still.

 

Over any length of time though??? The numbers are so overwhelmingly in favour of the LPGA player that I would quickly become a rich man .

 

And honestly, I'm pretty sure I could set up a match like this with a few phone calls if somebody actually wanted to put up five grand !

 

Assuming that the LPGA tour player is a plus 2 men's, the four cap obviously has to beat his cap by 6 strokes to match her if the LPGA player plays to her cap. The odds of shooting 6 better for a 4 cap are about 380-1 according to usga data. Now, players only shoot their cap about 25% of he time, so the odds of the four cap winning a match are better than that. For example, if the LPGA player had a bad day and shot say four over her cap, the 4 cap would only need to best his by 2 to match. The odds of that are about 23-1. So still only a 4% chance. If she shot 6 worse, than he'd have about a 25% chance of winning. So any sane person would obviously bet on the LPGA player, but she would lose a non-zero percentage of the time. Overall though, the LPGA player would be a very large favorite.

[Obee]

I love this website! Tons of guys that can hit it 300, and everybody knows lots of other guys that can hit it 280 and up (except not straight...). Doesn't matter what the Tour average is, doesn't matter what Mark Broadie's research shows, doesn't matter what the GPS watch on your wrist says.

 

But, hey, don't let reality get in the way of a good story, right? I love it.

 

You're right. Tour average IS meaningless.

 

And Broadie's stuff is great. But you imply that a 4-capper hitting it 280 is like a unicorn. You're the one making the ridiculous claim here.

 

I play with a Champions Tour player on a regular basis. He averages 280ish. I know EXACTLY how far that is. And if you'd like me to show you 10 amateurs just at my club who regularly hit it with or past him, just come on over any time. And by the way, two of those amateurs are 52 and 57 years old!!

 

What is it about you that makes you think that professionals' driving distance is out of reach for amateurs? Their GAMES are out of reach, but not their distance--especially the guys at 280ish.

 

Here's another for you: On Monday, we played our 18th hole with Woodie Austin (who averages ... you guessed it: 280). After two of the guys in our group hit first, Woodie walked back to his cart and said:

 

"Well, I'm not catching either of those, so let's go."

 

It's anecdotal to you, sure, but I live this sh*t, dude. I see it all the time.

 

Next time I come across a young kid with 115-120 clubhead speed, I'll take some video.

 

Hell, I'll see one next week in fact. This kid's about a 2. He CARRIES the ball 300.

[b.helts]

Lots of sword fighting in this thread.

 

lol

 

[Obee]

Lots of sword fighting in this thread.

 

lol

 

Yeah. The funny thing, though, is that I'm not even fighting with my own sword!! LOL

[juliette91]

Looks like the discussion has changed direction. But let's accept some of the posters who say that their 4 handicap buddies carry it 280 yards most of the time. It could be 330 yards or it could be 230 yards. If they're all 4 handicappers do you think one has more of an advantage over the LPGA player solely because of the distance? Or is it the shorter more accurate player that has the advantage. Wait, it's the one who carries it 250, that's the one with the advantage. Scoring is scoring is scoring and if you're consistently driving the ball 280 carry and in the fairway and you're a 4 hcp'r then parts of your game are not matching that level of skill.

 

I think regardless of the course conditions you have to look at the scoring ability of the players in competition. A 4 handicapper, regardless of his power or accuracy, is a 4 handicapper.

[Shilgy]

Funny thing is when comparing pros and ams a couple things happen usually. First is thinking the pros average is "how far" they can hit it. As in " our kid hit one 310 and other day and Finau can only hurt it 306" . The ams think their average is the average of their solid hits and the pros measure a couple a round as Obee noted. The good with three bad. The other comparison fallacy is the yardage of the course being played. I have a buddy that is about a 7 cap but he thinks he can beat the ladies. I tried to get him to move up to our red tees, about 5800, to see if he could break par but he declined. Still thinks he could beat the gals though.

As Obee and surf noted there are long ams. If they are long AND straight though they are usually better than 4. It's damn hard to be 4 out higher from 280 down the middle.

[nsxguy]

So then the answer to the title is,,,,,,, yes,,,,,, again,,,,,, sure glad I came back for more,,,,,,,,,,, :russian_roulette:

[Obee]

I'm already on record saying that the LPGA player smokes a 4-capper. Was just reacting to the distance thing.