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Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?


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Uh ... No. LOL   Last time I played a ~7400 yard course in competition that I remember, I shot 72 in the final round of the Carlton Woods Invitational at The Club at Carlton Woods (Fazio Cou

But, but, but, he's a man and he can outdrive them by 100 yards! They're just girls...  

I commented this earlier in this thread a few years ago but feel it is worth reiterating again.    im a member at Carnoustie. We hosted the woman’s British open in 2011 from a tee set that play

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1 hour ago, Shilgy said:

Of course the 4 can shoot 77....on a 73 course rated course it would happen about 20% of the time. Want to wager straight up he could beat the woman? The 4 might be able to beat the lady maybe once out of ...what? 50 rounds? Please remember the same conditions that made the lady shoot 77 the 4 would have had to play in as well. Since you wrote earlier that you are aware the ANA course was playing to a 73.1 men’s rating what handicap would the lady have if she repeated her performance and shot 68-69-76-77 repeatedly over 20 rounds?

You say “20% of the time” which is complete and utter BS. You can get a 4 handicap from shooting 77 on 73 rated course 15 out of your 20 rounds the same way you can by 4 of the 20. Do these “same conditions” include the use backboards on island greens? ?‍♂️

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3 minutes ago, Red4282 said:

You say “20% of the time” which is complete and utter BS. You can get a 4 handicap from shooting 77 on 73 rated course 15 out of your 20 rounds the same way you can by 4 of the 20. Do these “same conditions” include the use backboards on island greens? ?‍♂️

To have a 4.0 index you will shoot to your handicap 20% of the time on average.  Yes, someone could shoot that 77 every single round. Do you know folks that never vary? I sincerely doubt it. But yes you “could” play to your handicap every round...it’s about as likely a “could” as the 4 beating the lady pro.

Do you also disagree with the math for the ladies handicaps I mentioned? 

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8 minutes ago, Red4282 said:

You say “20% of the time” which is complete and utter BS. You can get a 4 handicap from shooting 77 on 73 rated course 15 out of your 20 rounds the same way you can by 4 of the 20. Do these “same conditions” include the use backboards on island greens? ?‍♂️


Not sure I understand this. Are you saying a 4-capper will shoot 77 on a 73 rated golf course more often than 20% of the time?

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6 minutes ago, Obee said:


Not sure I understand this. Are you saying a 4-capper will shoot 77 on a 73 rated golf course more often than 20% of the time?

I believe he was saying “could”. And if he never went lower or higher he “could” every round. 
 

Like as a +2 you COULD shoot 71 every....single.....round. And be a +2. Not typically how golf works of course but neither is this thread.

Edited by Shilgy

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8 minutes ago, Red4282 said:

You say “20% of the time” which is complete and utter BS. You can get a 4 handicap from shooting 77 on 73 rated course 15 out of your 20 rounds the same way you can by 4 of the 20. Do these “same conditions” include the use backboards on island greens? ?‍♂️

The following table are the calculated odds of shooting certain differentials based on handicap index.  Notice that to shoot a net differential of 0 for a 4 handicap is 5:1 (20% of the time).  A zero net differential means exactly shooting your handicap.  The table was provided by Dean Knuth who created handicap slope and also knows a bit about probability and statistics which you can verify on his PopeOfSlope.com website.

 

ODDS OF SHOOTING AN EXCEPTIONAL TOURNAMENT SCORE

 

 

Handicap Ranges

0-5

6-12

13-21

22-30

GREATER THAN 30

Net Differential

odds

odds

odds

odds

odds

0

5:1

5:1

6:1

5:1

5:1

-1

10:1

10:1

10:1

8:1

7:1

-2

23:1

22:1

21:1

13:1

10:1

-3

57:1

51:1

43:1

23:1

15:1

-4

151:1

121:1

87:1

40:1

22:1

-5

379:1

276:1

174:1

72:1

35:1

-6

790:1

536:1

323:1

130:1

60:1

-7

2349:1

1200:1

552:1

229:1

101:1

-8

20111:1

4467:1

1138:1

382:1

185:1

-9

48219:1

27877:1

3577:1

695:1

359:1

-10

125000:1

84300:1

37000:1

1650:1

874:1

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5 minutes ago, Obee said:


Not sure I understand this. Are you saying a 4-capper will shoot 77 on a 73 rated golf course more often than 20% of the time?

If they do, are they not still a 4 cap? A handicap is figured by using your 4 best rounds out of last 20, correct? Entirely possible to shoot 77 more than 4 times out of 20

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1 minute ago, Red4282 said:

If they do, are they not still a 4 cap? A handicap is figured by using your 4 best rounds out of last 20, correct? Entirely possible to shoot 77 more than 4 times out of 20


Of course they WOULD BE. But (virtually) no one actually DOES. 

 

Grab anyone's most recent 20 scores and you will see how the spreads are. 
 

And, no, it is not your best four of 20, it is your best eight of 20 that determine your index. 

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3 minutes ago, Obee said:


Of course they WOULD BE. But (virtually) no one actually DOES. 

 

Grab anyone's most recent 20 scores and you will see how the spreads are. 
 

And, no, it is not your best four of 20, it is your best eight of 20 that determine your index. 

So how does that math work? Serious question. Last 8 our of 20 (40%) but only a 20% chance to shoot your index?

Edited by Red4282
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10 minutes ago, Red4282 said:

So how does that math work? Serious question. Last 8 our of 20 (40%) but only a 20% chance to shoot your index?


here are my last 20 scores:

 

 

 

531180BE-A7EA-4AD3-BAA6-49B91747F7AE.jpeg

Edited by Obee

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A57218F0-2FE5-418B-9658-5EC9865DB786.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, Red4282 said:

Gotcha, so you have a wide margin in low scores to your higher scores in your top 8. 
 

here is mine, not as wide of margins:

 

 

3E5C0F5D-79E7-4F26-B0DA-F8F045D7C1B5.jpeg


what were the differentials of all 20?

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34 minutes ago, Red4282 said:

Well obviously theres a few stinkers in there but thats not what we were talking about? By the way, these are on all different courses with different ratings, so its more of a traveling cap. But 5 of the scores are BETTER than the +0.3 i carry. 

Exactly. So 25% of the time, ON THIS ONE REVISION, you equaled or beat your index. 
 

average is that 20 to 25% of the time you will equal or better it. 

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8 hours ago, Shilgy said:

Of course the 4 can shoot 77....on a 73 course rated course it would happen about 20% of the time. Want to wager straight up he could beat the woman? The 4 might be able to beat the lady maybe once out of ...what? 50 rounds? Please remember the same conditions that made the lady shoot 77 the 4 would have had to play in as well. Since you wrote earlier that you are aware the ANA course was playing to a 73.1 men’s rating what handicap would the lady have if she repeated her performance and shot 68-69-76-77 repeatedly over 20 rounds?

 

I have to disagree with the basic premise that the course was playing to a 73.1 rating. Under normal conditions, sure. We just watched 100+ pros shoot a median of 3 over par during the first two rounds. The median scoring average for the tour is 72.27. Yes, any one player can shoot 2 over the rating on any given day. However, 200+ rounds at 2 over the rating is practically impossible. No chance in heck that a 4 sniffs at 77 20% of the time on that setup.  

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6 hours ago, Obee said:

Exactly. So 25% of the time, ON THIS ONE REVISION, you equaled or beat your index. 
 

average is that 20 to 25% of the time you will equal or better it. 

No, according to the odds provided, i would equal my index 4/20 times. But to BEAT  my index by 1, its 1/10 or 2 out of every 20, and i have 4 of those out of 20. Not even sure how we got here, the point is yes, you can be very consistent and be a 4 capper, its not always wildly up and down. I am doing some statistical research, i will post my results later today. 

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23 minutes ago, Argonne69 said:

 

I have to disagree with the basic premise that the course was playing to a 73.1 rating. Under normal conditions, sure. We just watched 100+ pros shoot a median of 3 over par during the first two rounds. The median scoring average for the tour is 72.27. Yes, any one player can shoot 2 over the rating on any given day. However, 200+ rounds at 2 over the rating is practically impossible. No chance in heck that a 4 sniffs at 77 20% of the time on that setup.  

Just wait, i will have something for you later today.

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1 hour ago, Argonne69 said:

 

I have to disagree with the basic premise that the course was playing to a 73.1 rating. Under normal conditions, sure. We just watched 100+ pros shoot a median of 3 over par during the first two rounds. The median scoring average for the tour is 72.27. Yes, any one player can shoot 2 over the rating on any given day. However, 200+ rounds at 2 over the rating is practically impossible. No chance in heck that a 4 sniffs at 77 20% of the time on that setup.  


was this a major? Was it especially windy?

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30 minutes ago, ThinkingPlus said:

ANA Inspiration (old Nabisco Dinah Shore) so yes it is a major.  Not really much wind, but a bit on the warm side.  Thickish rough I believe.

 

Ahhhhhh. Had no idea about that. 

 

That course is tough for the Dina. Probably a rating of ~75 from those tees under Dinah conditions. It's still "The Dinah" to me, btw!!

 

Background: I live in Riverside, about 50 minutes from there. My parents owned a place directly across the street from Mission Hills, and my aunt and uncle were members there for 10+ years in 90's. I played that course many, many times over the years, including several times on the Monday after the tournament and three years ago in the SCGA Amateur from the tippy tips (7300?) in the SCGA Amateur in 120 degree heat.\

 

For the Dinah, It definitely plays tougher than the rating, as the rough is thick, wet and nasty rye grass. Greens are firm and fast. It's not a men's major (5 or 6 over the rating), but it's easily 2 strokes tougher than the rating due to the thick rough and firm greens.

 

So add that into the mix. Figure the course is playing to a rating of just under 75.

Edited by Obee
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2 hours ago, Argonne69 said:

 

I have to disagree with the basic premise that the course was playing to a 73.1 rating. Under normal conditions, sure. We just watched 100+ pros shoot a median of 3 over par during the first two rounds. The median scoring average for the tour is 72.27. Yes, any one player can shoot 2 over the rating on any given day. However, 200+ rounds at 2 over the rating is practically impossible. No chance in heck that a 4 sniffs at 77 20% of the time on that setup.  

 

Totally forgot this was the Dinah. See my post below on how it plays. I have direct experience there.

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7 minutes ago, Obee said:

 

Ahhhhhh. Had no idea about that. 

 

That course is tough for the Dina. Probably a rating of ~75 from those tees under Dinah conditions. It's still "The Dinah" to me, btw!!

 

Background: I live in Riverside, about 50 minutes from there. My parents owned a place directly across the street from Mission Hills, and my aunt and uncle were members there for 10+ years in 90's. I played that course many, many times over the years, including several times on the Monday after the tournament and three years ago in the SCGA Amateur from the tippy tips (7300?) in the SCGA Amateur in 120 degree heat.\

 

For the Dinah, It definitely plays tougher than the rating, as the rough is thick, wet and nasty rye grass. Greens are firm and fast. It's not a men's major (5 or 6 over the rating), but it's easily 2 strokes tougher than the rating due to the thick rough and firm greens.

 

So add that into the mix. Figure the course is playing to a rating of just under 75.

Bermuda and punishing for those with shallower angle of act.  Brooke Henderson in particular.

https://www.golfdigest.ie/news/the-ana-inspiration-i-didn-t-know-the-course-could-change-that-differently-with-bermuda-replacing-rye-grass

 

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16 minutes ago, Obee said:

 

Ahhhhhh. Had no idea about that. 

 

That course is tough for the Dina. Probably a rating of ~75 from those tees under Dinah conditions. It's still "The Dinah" to me, btw!!

 

Background: I live in Riverside, about 50 minutes from there. My parents owned a place directly across the street from Mission Hills, and my aunt and uncle were members there for 10+ years in 90's. I played that course many, many times over the years, including several times on the Monday after the tournament and three years ago in the SCGA Amateur from the tippy tips (7300?) in the SCGA Amateur in 120 degree heat.\

 

For the Dinah, It definitely plays tougher than the rating, as the rough is thick, wet and nasty rye grass. Greens are firm and fast. It's not a men's major (5 or 6 over the rating), but it's easily 2 strokes tougher than the rating due to the thick rough and firm greens.

 

So add that into the mix. Figure the course is playing to a rating of just under 75.

Always liked that facility, but never got to play the Dinah course.  I did play the GP course.  It was OK.  I enjoyed most of the Palm Springs courses I played.

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16 minutes ago, glk said:

Bermuda and punishing for those with shallower angle of act.  Brooke Henderson in particular.

https://www.golfdigest.ie/news/the-ana-inspiration-i-didn-t-know-the-course-could-change-that-differently-with-bermuda-replacing-rye-grass

 

Oh wow! It was just recently. LOL!

 

Yeah, either way, if they let the rough grow for a Major (which they always do) it's going to play tougher than normal. 75ish still right. It might even play a bit tougher with the Bermuda still there -- depending on how long they let it get...

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What were score like this year compared to an average Dinah year? That will tell us if it played, score-wise, like it usually does.

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9 hours ago, Shilgy said:

I believe he was saying “could”. And if he never went lower or higher he “could” every round. 
 

Like as a +2 you COULD shoot 71 every....single.....round. And be a +2. Not typically how golf works of course but neither is this thread.

 

My friend, the reason many posters have bowed out of this thread is the goal posts KEEP MOVING, except possibly for the word "Could" in the title. :classic_laugh:

 

The latest morphing of the full "parameters", at least that I can remember, is a male 4 'capper who hits his drive 300 vs. a lower level LPGA member who hits it about 240 playing from the TIPS.

 

Seems like everybody who wants to make THEIR "point" is changing 1 or more parameters, similar to your point of how often HE shoots his differential or better vs. how often SHE does.

 

So this thread will basically never end until a mod locks it. Please. :lock:

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31 minutes ago, nsxguy said:

 

My friend, the reason many posters have bowed out of this thread is the goal posts KEEP MOVING, except possibly for the word "Could" in the title. :classic_laugh:

 

The latest morphing of the full "parameters", at least that I can remember, is a male 4 'capper who hits his drive 300 vs. a lower level LPGA member who hits it about 240 playing from the TIPS.

 

Seems like everybody who wants to make THEIR "point" is changing 1 or more parameters, similar to your point of how often HE shoots his differential or better vs. how often SHE does.

 

So this thread will basically never end until a mod locks it. Please. :lock:

 

I'm actually enjoying reading the thread so count me as NOT wanting to lock it. Quite interesting if you ask me. 

 

Besides that, no one is making you read the thread so you actually can "lock" yourself out of the thread if you want to by simply not clicking on it ?

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12 minutes ago, North Texas said:

 

I'm actually enjoying reading the thread so count me as NOT wanting to lock it. Quite interesting if you ask me. 

 

Besides that, no one is making you read the thread so you actually can "lock" yourself out of the thread if you want to by simply not clicking on it ?

 

We all find different things interesting (or not), don't we ? ?

 

And thanks very much, I'm quite aware of how I can avoid it. :classic_wink:

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