Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?

[Red4282]

Alright, purely statistical analysis here:

 

Almost every tournament I have looked at, and the yardage these courses are playing for them is resulting in a mens rating right around par and in some cases 1 stroke over par. This means for a 4 cap, the scores we should look for are (+5) or worse.Lets leave out conditions because we can debate that later, I will note majors because Im sure they are a different animal.

 

Looking near the bottom of the scoring average for 2019, first click resulted in this:

 

 

 

42 rounds, 12 rounds at +5 or worse. Take out majors, and that leaves us with 9/38 rounds at +5 or worse, roughly 25%. 
 

So if the 4 capper shoots his index or better 1/5 times (20%), a 4 capper would have odds of beating (or tying) this LPGA player 5% of the time, or 1/20. 
 

Looking at several more players scores, it ranges from some very consistent play, and some more wild margins of high and low scores. The average seems to be about 1 in 6 or so rounds at +5 or worse and would put the 4 capper odds at about 1/30, or roughly 3% chance. 
 

Looking at the top of the scoring average and it would just be an absolute murder of a 4 capper. Every single time.
 

I still think the odds can change if the course is set up to benefit mens length and less premium on accuracy. For example, a 4 capper whose cap is established on a tight course that requires premium accuracy, but their strengths are length, not accuracy.
 

Put them on a long course thats wide open and he will likely play better than his 4 indicates-AND playing against a shorter hitting LPGA player. Yes i know alot of circumstances here, but just talking odds. We have established that the odds of a 4 capper beating a top player is zilch. With the right circumstances like above, it could be as much as 20-30 percent? 

 

 

 

Edited September 15, 2020 by Red4282

[Red4282]

1 hour ago, nsxguy said:

 

My friend, the reason many posters have bowed out of this thread is the goal posts KEEP MOVING, except possibly for the word "Could" in the title.

 

The latest morphing of the full "parameters", at least that I can remember, is a male 4 'capper who hits his drive 300 vs. a lower level LPGA member who hits it about 240 playing from the TIPS.

 

Seems like everybody who wants to make THEIR "point" is changing 1 or more parameters, similar to your point of how often HE shoots his differential or better vs. how often SHE does.

 

So this thread will basically never end until a mod locks it. Please.

It shouldn't be an issue as long as the discussion stays respectful.

 

[Obee]

4 hours ago, Red4282 said:

Alright, purely statistical analysis here:

 

Almost every tournament I have looked at, and the yardage these courses are playing for them is resulting in a mens rating right around par and in some cases 1 stroke over par. This means for a 4 cap, the scores we should look for are (+5) or worse.Lets leave out conditions because we can debate that later, I will note majors because Im sure they are a different animal.

 

Looking near the bottom of the scoring average for 2019, first click resulted in this:

 

 

 

42 rounds, 12 rounds at +5 or worse. Take out majors, and that leaves us with 9/38 rounds at +5 or worse, roughly 25%. 
 

So if the 4 capper shoots his index or better 1/5 times (20%), a 4 capper would have odds of beating (or tying) this LPGA player 5% of the time, or 1/20. 
 

Looking at several more players scores, it ranges from some very consistent play, and some more wild margins of high and low scores. The average seems to be about 1 in 6 or so rounds at +5 or worse and would put the 4 capper odds at about 1/30, or roughly 3% chance. 
 

Looking at the top of the scoring average and it would just be an absolute murder of a 4 capper. Every single time.
 

I still think the odds can change if the course is set up to benefit mens length and less premium on accuracy. For example, a 4 capper whose cap is established on a tight course that requires premium accuracy, but their strengths are length, not accuracy.
 

Put them on a long course thats wide open and he will likely play better than his 4 indicates-AND playing against a shorter hitting LPGA player. Yes i know alot of circumstances here, but just talking odds. We have established that the odds of a 4 capper beating a top player is zilch. With the right circumstances like above, it could be as much as 20-30 percent? 

 

 

 

 

Lots of "baggage" in threads like these. 

 

If the question is: "Can a male golfer with an average, year-long index of 3.5 to 4.4 (a '4 index') shoot 77 on an 'average' LPGA Tour golf course?" The answer is, unequivocally and emphatically, "YES." He can do that. In fact, he would probably do that 10% to 20% of the time, pressure and all other junk notwithstanding. In so doing, he would tie, (or narrowly beat) the absolute worst 5 or 10 players in the field that day. Anybody who can't acknowledge this can pound sand. LOL

 

However(!), that is not, as the title says, "...Beating an LPGA Golfer," in the minds of many of us here (and everywhere).

 

I'm confident in stating that if you were to take any (long hitter, short hitter, fat guy, skinny guy) random 4-index golfer on any (long, short, tight, wide-open) course and had them play the number 100 ranked LPGA golfer, together, on the same day, in the same group, the odds of the 4 beating the LPGA Player are about 50 to 75 to 1. Versus the top women, it's several hundred, if not a thousand to one, and versus the very worst players that year on the LPGA. it's probably 25 to 30 to 1.

 

In the same group. On the same course. On the same day. For money and phocking PRIDE, the lady just drums the 4 over and over and over and over and over.

 

And over.

 

But hey, if that one time in 30 or 40, the guy beats the number 190th ranked LPGA player on Tour when he chips in for a 76 on a day she is battling a sprained wrist and has a migraine and shoots 77 means he "beats" her in your mind ... Knock yourself out ....

 

And ... over.

[rich_s2]

10 minutes ago, Obee said:

 

Lots of "baggage" in threads like these. 

 

If the question is: "Can a male golfer with an average, year-long index of 3.5 to 4.4 (a '4 index') shoot 77 on an 'average' LPGA Tour golf course?" The answer is, unequivocally and emphatically, "YES." He can do that. In fact, he would probably do that 10% to 20% of the time, pressure and all other junk notwithstanding. In so doing, he would tie, (or narrowly beat) the absolute worst 5 or 10 players in the field that day. Anybody who can't acknowledge this can pound sand. LOL

 

However(!), that is not, as the title says, "...Beating an LPGA Golfer," in the minds of many of us here (and everywhere).

 

I'm confident in stating that if you were to take any (long hitter, short hitter, fat guy, skinny guy) random 4-index golfer on any (long, short, tight, wide-open) course and had them play the number 100 ranked LPGA golfer, together, on the same day, in the same group, the odds of the 4 beating the LPGA Player are about 50 to 75 to 1. Versus the top women, it's several hundred, if not a thousand to one, and versus the very worst players that year on the LPGA. it's probably 25 to 30 to 1.

 

In the same group. On the same course. On the same day. For money and phocking PRIDE, the lady just drums the 4 over and over and over and over and over.

 

And over.

 

But hey, if that one time in 30 or 40, the guy beats the number 190th ranked LPGA player on Tour when he chips in for a 76 on a day she is battling a sprained wrist and has a migraine and shoots 77 means he "beats" her in your mind ... Knock yourself out ....

 

And ... over.

Common sense has no place here my friend ?

[Argonne69]

7 hours ago, Obee said:

 

Ahhhhhh. Had no idea about that. 

 

That course is tough for the Dina. Probably a rating of ~75 from those tees under Dinah conditions. It's still "The Dinah" to me, btw!!

 

Background: I live in Riverside, about 50 minutes from there. My parents owned a place directly across the street from Mission Hills, and my aunt and uncle were members there for 10+ years in 90's. I played that course many, many times over the years, including several times on the Monday after the tournament and three years ago in the SCGA Amateur from the tippy tips (7300?) in the SCGA Amateur in 120 degree heat.\

 

For the Dinah, It definitely plays tougher than the rating, as the rough is thick, wet and nasty rye grass. Greens are firm and fast. It's not a men's major (5 or 6 over the rating), but it's easily 2 strokes tougher than the rating due to the thick rough and firm greens.

 

So add that into the mix. Figure the course is playing to a rating of just under 75.

 

Since they were playing in September, the rough was 2 1/2 inches of Bermuda. The greens were Bermuda, so grain was a factor.

 

Every player they interviewed during the event said the course was playing tougher than in April, even without the wind. 

[Red4282]

13 minutes ago, Obee said:

 

Lots of "baggage" in threads like these. 

 

If the question is: "Can a male golfer with an average, year-long index of 3.5 to 4.4 (a '4 index') shoot 77 on an 'average' LPGA Tour golf course?" The answer is, unequivocally and emphatically, "YES." He can do that. In fact, he would probably do that 10% to 20% of the time, pressure and all other junk notwithstanding. In so doing, he would tie, (or narrowly beat) the absolute worst 5 or 10 players in the field that day. Anybody who can't acknowledge this can pound sand. LOL

 

However(!), that is not, as the title says, "...Beating an LPGA Golfer," in the minds of many of us here (and everywhere).

 

I'm confident in stating that if you were to take any (long hitter, short hitter, fat guy, skinny guy) random 4-index golfer on any (long, short, tight, wide-open) course and had them play the number 100 ranked LPGA golfer, together, on the same day, in the same group, the odds of the 4 beating the LPGA Player are about 50 to 75 to 1. Versus the top women, it's several hundred, if not a thousand to one, and versus the very worst players that year on the LPGA. it's probably 25 to 30 to 1.

 

In the same group. On the same course. On the same day. For money and phocking PRIDE, the lady just drums the 4 over and over and over and over and over.

 

And over.

 

But hey, if that one time in 30 or 40, the guy beats the number 190th ranked LPGA player on Tour when he chips in for a 76 on a day she is battling a sprained wrist and has a migraine and shoots 77 means he "beats" her in your mind ... Knock yourself out ....

 

And ... over.

See this is where i check out. It seems there is an emotional response with alot here and i get it... hence moving the goal posts...but I provided solid statistical data, not only is the data being ignored, its also being mocked. Yea those were on the bottom but thats exactly what i claimed,  no? I dont understand why im getting all the backlash.   If this isnt a “pro” then my bad, i guess i misunderstood the question that apparently everyone got but me. Lets go up to #130, is that acceptable? 1/8 rounds at +5 or worse, so odds become 1/40. Ive admitted the top players- top 50 would smoke a 4 every time. The 50-100 would be very terrible odds- but from 100 down, i deem it the answer to the question in the title “can a 4 cap male best an LPGA pro?” MILDLY plausible. The statistics back it up. The statistics behind strokes gained back up my claims about the advantages on why a longer course tilts the odds slightly (albeit, its small) to a mans favor even more. Ignore all the statistics you would like, and just make up your own for all i care. Everything i have said has been accurate. 
 

 

[Argonne69]

23 minutes ago, Obee said:

 

Lots of "baggage" in threads like these. 

 

If the question is: "Can a male golfer with an average, year-long index of 3.5 to 4.4 (a '4 index') shoot 77 on an 'average' LPGA Tour golf course?" The answer is, unequivocally and emphatically, "YES." He can do that. In fact, he would probably do that 10% to 20% of the time, pressure and all other junk notwithstanding. In so doing, he would tie, (or narrowly beat) the absolute worst 5 or 10 players in the field that day. Anybody who can't acknowledge this can pound sand. LOL

 

However(!), that is not, as the title says, "...Beating an LPGA Golfer," in the minds of many of us here (and everywhere).

 

I'm confident in stating that if you were to take any (long hitter, short hitter, fat guy, skinny guy) random 4-index golfer on any (long, short, tight, wide-open) course and had them play the number 100 ranked LPGA golfer, together, on the same day, in the same group, the odds of the 4 beating the LPGA Player are about 50 to 75 to 1. Versus the top women, it's several hundred, if not a thousand to one, and versus the very worst players that year on the LPGA. it's probably 25 to 30 to 1.

 

In the same group. On the same course. On the same day. For money and phocking PRIDE, the lady just drums the 4 over and over and over and over and over.

 

And over.

 

But hey, if that one time in 30 or 40, the guy beats the number 190th ranked LPGA player on Tour when he chips in for a 76 on a day she is battling a sprained wrist and has a migraine and shoots 77 means he "beats" her in your mind ... Knock yourself out ....

 

And ... over.

 

Right, we're talking about an 'AND' condition here. The LPGA pro has to shoot a high score (.2) AND the 4 capper has to beat his index (.2). Multiply them and you get a probability of 4 percent, or one time in 25. Who's going to set up a match that involves 25 rounds of golf so we can see the magic elf beat the pro 1 time? And we're talking about a pro near the bottom of the ranking. Take a 75th to 100th ranked LPGA player, and there's practically no chance. 

[nsxguy]

6 hours ago, North Texas said:

 

There are many threads that I have no interest in reading but I don't think they should be locked just because I'm not interested in them. 

 

[never mind]

Edited September 15, 2020 by nsxguy

[Shilgy]

1 hour ago, Red4282 said:

See this is where i check out. It seems there is an emotional response with alot here and i get it... hence moving the goal posts...but I provided solid statistical data, not only is the data being ignored, its also being mocked. Yea those were on the bottom but thats exactly what i claimed,  no? I dont understand why im getting all the backlash.   If this isnt a “pro” then my bad, i guess i misunderstood the question that apparently everyone got but me. Lets go up to #130, is that acceptable? 1/8 rounds at +5 or worse, so odds become 1/40. Ive admitted the top players- top 50 would smoke a 4 every time. The 50-100 would be very terrible odds- but from 100 down, i deem it the answer to the question in the title “can a 4 cap male best an LPGA pro?” MILDLY plausible. The statistics back it up. The statistics behind strokes gained back up my claims about the advantages on why a longer course tilts the odds slightly (albeit, its small) to a mans favor even more. Ignore all the statistics you would like, and just make up your own for all i care. Everything i have said has been accurate. 
 

 

My last on this...I promise this time lol...did it ever occur to you there were likely conditions that caused the lady pros high scores? Wind? Rain? Combination? You only circled her bad days...I guess as examples of where the 4 could win? Have you seen many fours that shoot her good scores? Does that not imply that there was something about the course that day that drove her scores up?

 

PS I thought this thread was about #100- 140 or so on tour. The lady you mentioned is #611 in the Rolex Rankings

Edited September 15, 2020 by Shilgy

[glk]

2 minutes ago, Shilgy said:

My last on this...I promise this time lol...did it ever occur to you there were likely conditions that caused the lady pros high scores? Wind? Rain? Combination? You only circled her bad days...I guess as examples of where the 4 could win? Have you seen many fours that shoot her good scores? Does that not imply that there was something about the course that day that drove her scores up?

 

PS I thought this thread was about #100- 140 or so on tour. The lady you mentioned is #611 in the Rolex Rankings

She was injured for most of 2018 and in 2017 her rookie season she averaged 71.7ish and finished 73 rd on money list.  She has won twice on the symetra and appears to have no status on either tour this season.  Don’t know if the injury lingers and couldn’t find any news on her.  Her social accounts have gone pretty silent too.

[Soloman1]

Okay, so what if the 4 handicap and LPGA Tour pro (who was just in a car accident) play on Mars, and the LPGA player uses hickory shaft clubs? I'll put some statistics together and show you something very interesting... Stay tuned.

Edited September 15, 2020 by Soloman1

[Obee]

51 minutes ago, Shilgy said:

My last on this...I promise this time lol...did it ever occur to you there were likely conditions that caused the lady pros high scores? Wind? Rain? Combination? You only circled her bad days...I guess as examples of where the 4 could win? Have you seen many fours that shoot her good scores? Does that not imply that there was something about the course that day that drove her scores up?

 

PS I thought this thread was about #100- 140 or so on tour. The lady you mentioned is #611 in the Rolex Rankings

 

Wait ... she's #611 on the Rolex rankings???

[extrastiff]

40 minutes ago, Soloman1 said:

Okay, so what if the 4 handicap and LPGA Tour pro (who was just in a car accident) play on Mars, and the LPGA player uses hickory shaft clubs? I'll put some statistics together and show you something very interesting... Stay tuned.

Define “just”...

[glk]

16 minutes ago, Obee said:

 

Wait ... she's #611 on the Rolex rankings???

Her rookie year on LPGA was 2017.  She reached 138 in Rolex that year and finished 73 on money list.   Got injuries early 2018 and only played two events.  Had to be something lingering that affected 2019 and now she has played a couple euro tour events back in February.  Won twice on symetra and was  big ten player of the year 2011-2012 at Purdue.   

[Red4282]

2 hours ago, Argonne69 said:

 

Right, we're talking about an 'AND' condition here. The LPGA pro has to shoot a high score (.2) AND the 4 capper has to beat his index (.2). Multiply them and you get a probability of 4 percent, or one time in 25. Who's going to set up a match that involves 25 rounds of golf so we can see the magic elf beat the pro 1 time? And we're talking about a pro near the bottom of the ranking. Take a 75th to 100th ranked LPGA player, and there's practically no chance. 

You just said exactly what i said, when you say it you get praise, when i say it, i get laughed at lol... yall have fun.

[nsxguy]

 

[Red4282]

1 hour ago, Shilgy said:

My last on this...I promise this time lol...did it ever occur to you there were likely conditions that caused the lady pros high scores? Wind? Rain? Combination? You only circled her bad days...I guess as examples of where the 4 could win? Have you seen many fours that shoot her good scores? Does that not imply that there was something about the course that day that drove her scores up?

 

PS I thought this thread was about #100- 140 or so on tour. The lady you mentioned is #611 in the Rolex Rankings

this is a valid point, and im willing to accept that this lessons the odds but not absolute. She had 2 rounds at +10 or worse, and there is a reason she was so low in scoring average. Being facetious here but whats next down the line? A swing change? New equipment? Had a fight with significant other the night before? 

Edited September 16, 2020 by Red4282

[rich_s2]

15 minutes ago, Red4282 said:

this is a valid point, and im willing to accept that this lessons the odds but not absolute. She had 2 rounds at +10 or worse, and there is a reason she was so low in scoring average. Being facetious here but whats next down the line? A swing change? New equipment? Had a fight with significant other the night before? 

Let me help you out. You do realize these girls are shooting these scores with a crowd, tv presence and their careers on the line. Your every day 4 is going to curl up in a ball and poop his pants in those circumstances. You belittle the “player” that can accomplish what these girls do. To even defend your position is ridiculous. 

[Red4282]

1 hour ago, rich_s2 said:

Let me help you out. You do realize these girls are shooting these scores with a crowd, tv presence and their careers on the line. Your every day 4 is going to curl up in a ball and poop his pants in those circumstances. You belittle the “player” that can accomplish what these girls do. To even defend your position is ridiculous. 

I never belittled anyone, your reply  is exactly what i mean by an emotional response. Emotional response=bias and clouded logic.

[Obee]

4 hours ago, Red4282 said:

See this is where i check out. It seems there is an emotional response with alot here and i get it... hence moving the goal posts...but I provided solid statistical data, not only is the data being ignored, its also being mocked. Yea those were on the bottom but thats exactly what i claimed,  no? I dont understand why im getting all the backlash.   If this isnt a “pro” then my bad, i guess i misunderstood the question that apparently everyone got but me. Lets go up to #130, is that acceptable? 1/8 rounds at +5 or worse, so odds become 1/40. Ive admitted the top players- top 50 would smoke a 4 every time. The 50-100 would be very terrible odds- but from 100 down, i deem it the answer to the question in the title “can a 4 cap male best an LPGA pro?” MILDLY plausible. The statistics back it up. The statistics behind strokes gained back up my claims about the advantages on why a longer course tilts the odds slightly (albeit, its small) to a mans favor even more. Ignore all the statistics you would like, and just make up your own for all i care. Everything i have said has been accurate. 
 

 

 

You chose a player ranked number 611 on the Rolex rankings. Choose anyone who, last year, was 90 - 100 on the money list. That's a woman who kept her card. Or, at least choose someone in the top 150. Better yet, choose a smattering of pros from either group.

[Obee]

13 minutes ago, Red4282 said:

I never belittled anyone, your reply  is exactly what i mean by an emotional response. Emotional response=bias and clouded logic.

 

Dude, let's play golf some time. Forget all this stuff and play golf. Where you from?

[Red4282]

19 minutes ago, Obee said:

 

You chose a player ranked number 611 on the Rolex rankings. Choose anyone who, last year, was 90 - 100 on the money list. That's a woman who kept her card. Or, at least choose someone in the top 150. Better yet, choose a smattering of pros from either group.

I didnt look at rolex rankings i went straight to scoring average from 2019. And she wasnt the only one i looked at, i said the average +5 rounds varied in that lower 1/4, but seemed to average at 1/6 rounds. At #130 it was about 1/8 rounds. At top 100 it drops pretty significantly and thats where to me its way different, and much more extreme odds. Im NOT being unreasonable. 

[Red4282]

12 minutes ago, Obee said:

 

Dude, let's play golf some time. Forget all this stuff and play golf. Where you from?

Oklahoma, hope u like wind ?

[Obee]

13 minutes ago, Red4282 said:

Oklahoma, hope u like wind ?

I played Bandon in Late June. After that, NOTHING is windy. 

[Red4282]

1 minute ago, Obee said:

I played Bandon in Late June. After that, NOTHING is windy. 

Haha, awesome, id love to play there, did it live up to the hype?

[Argonne69]

3 minutes ago, Red4282 said:

Haha, awesome, id love to play there, did it live up to the hype?

 

Bandon is world class. 

[Obee]

4 minutes ago, Red4282 said:

Haha, awesome, id love to play there, did it live up to the hype?

crazy good. I went in with high expectations, and it exceeded every one. 

[Red4282]

4 minutes ago, Obee said:

crazy good. I went in with high expectations, and it exceeded every one. 

Nice, I dont have a big bucket list but its on it, that northwest part of the country with Pacific/bandon and chambers bay

Edited September 16, 2020 by Red4282

[Soloman1]

Is it time for a GolfWRX tournament? I’d love to play Bandon Dunes. I’ve worked with some LPGA Tour pros, so maybe we can have a little competition if we can find a 4 handicap? ?

Edited September 16, 2020 by Soloman1

[cardoustie]

91 pages of crazy ... amazing