Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?

[Lincoln_Arcadia]

1 minute ago, Red4282 said:

I have some very good stuff coming, very interesting, stay tuned

Did you get your clubs back from Richie?

[Soloman1]

13 minutes ago, nsxguy said:

 

No you're not.

 

If you were you'd not have bothered with this silly false equivalence. I know, I know, "exaggerating for effect".

 

 

 

Hey, I have an 85 IQ, so I'm doing my best. What exactly is your issue?

 

I apologize. I didn't write it at a 5th grade level. Here, let me try to be more clear so no thinking is required: people do break the odds and do win the lottery, so they do and can break the shorter odds in golf too. Do you disagree with that?

 

Is that clear or should I use more simple words?

[glk]

18 minutes ago, Red4282 said:

5 years ago is not THAT old. No technology changes or rules regarding equipment. Pga tours went up by 7 yards, shall we say lpga went up by 7 as well? 225?

Why?    btw the 2020 pga tour distance (measured drivers) median was 297 -  so really only 15  yards bounce (297-282) and roll (5% of total distance) (and back in 2015 the pga tour median drive was 289 and a 14 yard different so pretty consistent) - makes more sense to say the lpga  bounce and roll 13 yards which is a bit more than 5%  total distance - so est a carry of 242 median.    I don't think 1* less landing angle accounts for 18 more yards bounce and roll (33 lpga but 15 pga).     I don't see how a person hitting the ball some 50 yards less carry and 27 mph less ball speed at 1* less landing angle would get twice as much bounce and roll.

Edited September 16, 2020 by glk

[Red4282]

21 minutes ago, glk said:

Why?    btw the 2020 pga tour distance (measured drivers) median was 297 -  so really only 15  yards bounce (297-282) and roll (5% of total distance) (and back in 2015 the pga tour median drive was 289 and a 14 yard different so pretty consistent) - makes more sense to say the lpga  bounce and roll 13 yards which is a bit more than 5%  total distance - so est a carry of 242 median.    I don't think 1* less landing angle accounts for 18 more yards bounce and roll (33 lpga but 15 pga).     I don't see how a person hitting the ball some 50 yards less carry and 27 mph less ball speed at 1* less landing angle would get twice as much bounce and roll.

Did you not read the downhill part? Its trackman... id think id trust their data

[glk]

7 minutes ago, Red4282 said:

Did you not read the downhill part? Its trackman... id think id trust their data

so lpga measures only downhill.   lol.     again their data may be correct but who they sampled most likely isn't representative of the lpga tour - and certainly isn't for 2020.

and this guy was finding any rationalization to explain away the carry versus total distance - and as I showed it doesn't wash - if he was from trackman he should have been able to pull up the numbers for carry and distance not make up some story.    Sorry not buying it. 

 

and this is your response to my twice the bounce and roll - talk about moving the goal posts.   

Edited September 16, 2020 by glk

[dhc1]

48 minutes ago, nsxguy said:

 

That's actually a valid point I think. I watched the ladies in person in SE Asia and there was one hole in particular they got a HUGE break on at least twice during the tourney.

 

From the men's tees (NOT the tips), someone who hits is about 240 or so has a hazard in play so has to lay up, leaving about, IIRC, 160 or so to the green. Often a bit more than that to play safe as the fairway ran downhill towards the water.

 

At least 2 of the days they had the tees up so far it became a drive-able par 4 and very easy to clear the water from the tee with a shot of maybe 180-200 and have a flip wedge in.

 

There were some other tees I saw that were clearly up 20-30 from the men's tees as well. That said, I only went around half the course, maybe less, so I didn't check out every hole. So to be fair, there certainly could have been some that were pushed back.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the way courses played was about 200 yards shorter than listed - which would represent about one stroke in course rating. 

[Red4282]

16 minutes ago, glk said:

so lpga measures only downhill.   lol.     again their data may be correct but who they sampled most likely isn't representative of the lpga tour - and certainly isn't for 2020.

and this guy was finding any rationalization to explain away the carry versus total distance - and as I showed it doesn't wash - if he was from trackman he should have been able to pull up the numbers for carry and distance not make up some story.    Sorry not buying it. 

 

and this is your response to my twice the bounce and roll - talk about moving the goal posts.   

Your refute to this is nothing but speculation. Unless you can provide me with somehting otherwise, ill tend to believe them, that they are at least in the ballpark.

[glk]

Just now, Red4282 said:

Your refute to this is nothing but speculation. Unless you can provide me with somehting otherwise, ill tend to believe them, that they are at least in the ballpark.

So you got nothing.   Speculation - isn't this what this thread is all about and you've been doing all along - the 300 yard driving 4, . . .     Priceless

[Red4282]

18 minutes ago, glk said:

So you got nothing.   Speculation - isn't this what this thread is all about and you've been doing all along - the 300 yard driving 4, . . .     Priceless

I have proof of a 300 yard handicap 4 but ok... and ive provided lots of data to make an argument (and been trying to be reasonable in its flaws) just for you to say “nuh uh no way” ?‍♂️ 

[Argonne69]

4 hours ago, Red4282 said:

Well i hate to ruffle some more feathers, but the trackman data i provided was deemed old and inaccurate. Turns out its not that old, and there is speculation the LPGA Possibly maniputates this data. Dont shoot the messenger ?

 

 

 

 

 

Lol. The trackman numbers are BS. I've been to several LPGA events, and measured drives on the measured holes. They're not exaggerating things. As noted, 30 yds of rollout in tournament conditions is not unexpected. 

 

Do they move tees up? Yes, the same as the PGA tour. If the stats are fudged for the women, they're almost certainly fudged for the men.

 

I don't agree that the courses are 200 yds shorter than advertised. 100 to 150 yds maybe. The vast majority of events I've attended have a billboard behind the teebox with the hole yardage listed. Generally speaking the yardage displayed is measured from the billboard, with the tees 5 yds in from of the signage. 

 

Edited September 16, 2020 by Argonne69

[dhc1]

28 minutes ago, Argonne69 said:

 

Lol. The trackman numbers are BS. I've been to several LPGA events, and measured drives on the measured holes. They're not exaggerating things. As noted, 30 yds of rollout in tournament conditions is not unexpected. 

 

Do they move tees up? Yes, the same as the PGA tour. If the stats are fudged for the women, they're almost certainly fudged for the men.

 

I don't agree that the courses are 200 yds shorter than advertised. 100 to 150 yds maybe. The vast majority of events I've attended have a billboard behind the teebox with the hole yardage listed. Generally speaking the yardage displayed is measured from the billboard, with the tees 5 yds in from of the signage. 

 

 

Does the hole yardage match what is on the stated scorecard? I tend to believe that the LPGA does like to blur the actual distances these ladies play in a weird defensiveness of a moot issue. I recall that there were several tourneys a couple of years ago where a bunch of us went through the actual yardages and it was ~ 200 yards short of the stated and much of that was because the yardage on the billboard teebox wasn't the same as what was on the card, and usually shorter. 

 

I don't think it overly diminishes how good these players are but I'd guess that the course ratings would be lower by anywhere from a half stroke to 1.5 strokes, when one includes shorter distances and other helping items such as spectator stands. I don't think it's comparable to the PGA who really grow the rough, shrink the fairway and speed up the greens beyond normal play (except maybe Oakmont.....) which more than offset the distance lost IMO.

[Argonne69]

1 hour ago, dhc1 said:

 

Does the hole yardage match what is on the stated scorecard? I tend to believe that the LPGA does like to blur the actual distances these ladies play in a weird defensiveness of a moot issue. I recall that there were several tourneys a couple of years ago where a bunch of us went through the actual yardages and it was ~ 200 yards short of the stated and much of that was because the yardage on the billboard teebox wasn't the same as what was on the card, and usually shorter. 

 

I don't think it overly diminishes how good these players are but I'd guess that the course ratings would be lower by anywhere from a half stroke to 1.5 strokes, when one includes shorter distances and other helping items such as spectator stands. I don't think it's comparable to the PGA who really grow the rough, shrink the fairway and speed up the greens beyond normal play (except maybe Oakmont.....) which more than offset the distance lost IMO.

 

Yes, they match. I've stood by many teeboxes that have yardage placards/medallions on the ground, and the yardage is correct. At the KPMG they use a wooden post/sign, and the yardage was correct from the signpost. Tee markers were generally 5 yds in front of the sign post.

 

I think it's a cheap shot to claim that they're fudging the numbers. Anyone who's seen Ariya, Sung Hyun, Lexi, or Nelly hit a drive know that the swing speed is more than sufficient to carry the ball 250+. I was at the KPMG in 2018, and Lexi outdrove Lydia by a good 40 yds. Lydia hit a 240 yard drive down the middle, and Lexi blew it past her down into the lower part of the fairway.

 

[nsxguy]

4 hours ago, Soloman1 said:

 

Hey, I have an 85 IQ, so I'm doing my best. What exactly is your issue?

 

I apologize. I didn't write it at a 5th grade level. Here, let me try to be more clear so no thinking is required: people do break the odds and do win the lottery, so they do and can break the shorter odds in golf too. Do you disagree with that?

 

Is that clear or should I use more simple words?

 

Equating the odds of winning the lottery with the odds of the 4 beating the pro is a ridiculous comparison.

 

Afraid I can't use simpler words for you.

[Soloman1]

I didn't equate it, you did. You should read my comment again more slowly and with more thought. Even though the odds are against a 4 beating an LPGA pro, it can happen, just as people beat the far greater odds to win lotteries. It can happen.

 

I can only guess that English is not your first language.

[Red4282]

Ok heres why the golfers used and course condition/length matter. Feel free to refute respectfully please. As you probably have seen I posted trackman averages for LPGA pro, in 2015 at 218 yard carry with driver. Many have said this is old and it has gone up. With the addition of some long hitters like Anne Van Dam, and Maria Fassi amoung others, I do believe the average has gone up significantly since then. Just pure guessing but lets say 230(+12 yards). Keep in mind the pga tour only increased 7 yards in this time span so i think this number is reasonable. Now, for every van dam and fassi that is well beyond that average, you will have a jane doe or many well below that average too. For my example, i will use 218 carry for some of the shorter hitters on LPGA tour. 

 

As for this “mythical” non mythical 4 handicap who hits it 300. Look no further than me. When i was 17, i had only been playing about 2 years, and was quickly learning the game. At 6’3” and athletic, (played baseball, basketball, football all as a kid and up through high school-well quit baseball for golf), speed and distance came natural to me, and effortlessly swing 115-117mph with my driver, carrying 280 easy-with inferior equipment(this is in 1999). My junior year of Hs, in golf tournaments I averaged about high 70s, maybe 78-79. My lows for the year were 2 over 73, 3 over 75, 4 over 76. I had few low 80s in there, but rarely higher than 82-84. Almost all these courses are comparable *course rating wise* to these LPGA courses. Right at par or slightly above. Interestingly enough, i played with a similar young kid recently that reminded me of my 17 year old self. Talented but raw. Too aggressive at times and didn’t play the percentages enough. Was long as me. Didnt “spray” it often. Just made too many course management mistakes.  Solid putter, rarely 3 putted, but not making a ton outside 5 feet.

 

Now to the data and scenarios:

Course A

Par 72

6200 yards

10 par 4s at 360 yard average (3600 total)

4 par 5s at 500 yard average (2000 total)

4 par 3s averaging 150 (600 total)

Course is playing medium to firm- players get decent rollout on tee shots into fairway.

 

Course B:

7400 yards

Par 72

10 par 4s averaging 430 yards (4300)

4 par 5s averaging 600 yards (2400)

4 par 3s averaging 175 yards (700)

Course is SOFT. Heavy rain day(s) prior. Little to no roll out on tee shots in fairway.

 

I couldnt find strokes gained for LPGA so PGAs will have to do. We can extrapolate the yardages to make it comparable. For example, if an LPGA pro is 150 and hitting a 7 iron, its not equivalent to a PGA pro from 150, but rather a pga pro with a 7 iron or 175. (These are examples, not absolute)

 

 

Lets compare course A and B strokes gained for the LPGA pro on par 4s. Course A she is hitting a driver 240 and 120 yards in (9 iron). For the male pga tour equivalent this is about 440-450 yards. Strokes gained is 4.08

Now on course B- the lpga pro is hitting on average driver (remember no roll) 220,3 wood 200, to be 10 yards short. Equivalent to the men would be 540. Stokes gained at 540 is 4.65. 

 

So, going from the short course to the long course the pro lost over half a stroke a hole. That means course Bs par 4s are playing 5 strokes harder.

 

Now we have to compare what that does for a long hitter. 

 

Strokes gained for a male pro at 360: 3.92

 

For 430: 4.05

The longer hitter lost .13 strokes per hole. Over 10 holes thats 1 stroke.

 

You can see it plays harder for both golfers but impacts the short hitter sooooo much more. Now obviously these strokes gained is for a pro male, so its a bit apples and oranges because we dont know strokes gained for a 4 cap. Its obviously a bigger margin than .13. But is it 4 strokes over 10 holes?

The male went from hitting a partial wedge (60 yards) to a full 9 iron. The pro went from hitting a 9 iron to hitting a 3 wood and not even reaching. thats tough, i dont care who you are. The long course would have to be pretty open and forgiving, and not too much trouble off the tee to allow the long hitter to send it. If its tight or tons of hazards than this wouldnt work, at least as well. My last point thats often forgetten, is its been mentioned “forced carries” while not many courses have forced carries at 240, which is true, most have optional carries that provide big advantages. Think about that 430 yard par 4. Now imagine its a 75 degree dogleg, minimal trees. But a bunker sitting there at 250. The pro has to hit down the fairway and play the full length of the hole, while the male can send it over the dogleg and cut 40-60 yards off the hole, on top of the advantage he Already had with his distance. This is an extreme example of course merely to show how a longer course changes things.

 

 Distance matters.

 

I actually wouldnt mind hearing the theories and/or data on why a longer course would be easier for the lpga pro in this scenario, many of you have mentioned it, but im unsure how exactly that works in theory.

Edited September 17, 2020 by Red4282

[deadsolid...shank]

On 9/15/2020 at 6:46 PM, rich_s2 said:

Let me help you out. You do realize these girls are shooting these scores with a crowd, tv presence and their careers on the line. Your every day 4 is going to curl up in a ball and poop his pants in those circumstances. You belittle the “player” that can accomplish what these girls do. To even defend your position is ridiculous. 

I’m not commenting on the thread itself, I think I did early when it started. But, I do take extreme exception that that statement. Not every amateur player folds under pressure. There are plenty out there who have a history of performing under pressure in other activities in their past and are quite comfortable in pressure situations. They may not perform their best, but that is to be expected of an amateur player, but that doesn’t mean they succumbed to the situation. 

[hahanice]

1 hour ago, Red4282 said:

Ok heres why the golfers used and course condition/length matter. Feel free to refute respectfully please. As you probably have seen I posted trackman averages for LPGA pro, in 2015 at 218 yard carry with driver. Many have said this is old and it has gone up. With the addition of some long hitters like Anne Van Dam, and Maria Fassi amoung others, I do believe the average has gone up significantly since then. Just pure guessing but lets say 230(+12 yards). Keep in mind the pga tour only increased 7 yards in this time span so i think this number is reasonable. Now, for every van dam and fassi that is well beyond that average, you will have a jane doe or many well below that average too. For my example, i will use 218 carry for some of the shorter hitters on LPGA tour. 

 

As for this “mythical” non mythical 4 handicap who hits it 300. Look no further than me. When i was 17, i had only been playing about 2 years, and was quickly learning the game. At 6’3” and athletic, (played baseball, basketball, football all as a kid and up through high school-well quit baseball for golf), speed and distance came natural to me, and effortlessly swing 115-117mph with my driver, carrying 280 easy-with inferior equipment(this is in 1999). My junior year of Hs, in golf tournaments I averaged about high 70s, maybe 78-79. My lows for the year were 2 over 73, 3 over 75, 4 over 76. I had few low 80s in there, but rarely higher than 82-84. Almost all these courses are comparable *course rating wise* to these LPGA courses. Right at par or slightly above. Interestingly enough, i played with a similar young kid recently that reminded me of my 17 year old self. Talented but raw. Too aggressive at times and didn’t play the percentages enough. Was long as me. Didnt “spray” it often. Just made too many course management mistakes.  Solid putter, rarely 3 putted, but not making a ton outside 5 feet.

 

Now to the data and scenarios:

Course A

Par 72

6200 yards

10 par 4s at 360 yard average (3600 total)

4 par 5s at 500 yard average (2000 total)

4 par 3s averaging 150 (600 total)

Course is playing medium to firm- players get decent rollout on tee shots into fairway.

 

Course B:

7400 yards

Par 72

10 par 4s averaging 430 yards (4300)

4 par 5s averaging 600 yards (2400)

4 par 3s averaging 175 yards (700)

Course is SOFT. Heavy rain day(s) prior. Little to no roll out on tee shots in fairway.

 

I couldnt find strokes gained for LPGA so PGAs will have to do. We can extrapolate the yardages to make it comparable. For example, if an LPGA pro is 150 and hitting a 7 iron, its not equivalent to a PGA pro from 150, but rather a pga pro with a 7 iron or 175. (These are examples, not absolute)

 

 

Lets compare course A and B strokes gained for the LPGA pro on par 4s. Course A she is hitting a driver 240 and 120 yards in (9 iron). For the male pga tour equivalent this is about 440-450 yards. Strokes gained is 4.08

Now on course B- the lpga pro is hitting on average driver (remember no roll) 220,3 wood 200, to be 10 yards short. Equivalent to the men would be 540. Stokes gained at 540 is 4.65. 

 

So, going from the short course to the long course the pro lost over half a stroke a hole. That means course Bs par 4s are playing 5 strokes harder.

 

Now we have to compare what that does for a long hitter. 

 

Strokes gained for a male pro at 360: 3.92

 

For 430: 4.05

The longer hitter lost .13 strokes per hole. Over 10 holes thats 1 stroke.

 

You can see it plays harder for both golfers but impacts the short hitter sooooo much more. Now obviously these strokes gained is for a pro male, so its a bit apples and oranges because we dont know strokes gained for a 4 cap. Its obviously a bigger margin than .13. But is it 4 strokes over 10 holes?

The male went from hitting a partial wedge (60 yards) to a full 9 iron. The pro went from hitting a 9 iron to hitting a 3 wood and not even reaching. thats tough, i dont care who you are. The long course would have to be pretty open and forgiving, and not too much trouble off the tee to allow the long hitter to send it. If its tight or tons of hazards than this wouldnt work, at least as well. My last point thats often forgetten, is its been mentioned “forced carries” while not many courses have forced carries at 240, which is true, most have optional carries that provide big advantages. Think about that 430 yard par 4. Now imagine its a 75 degree dogleg, minimal trees. But a bunker sitting there at 250. The pro has to hit down the fairway and play the full length of the hole, while the male can send it over the dogleg and cut 40-60 yards off the hole, on top of the advantage he Already had with his distance. This is an extreme example of course merely to show how a longer course changes things.

 

 Distance matters.

 

I actually wouldnt mind hearing the theories and/or data on why a longer course would be easier for the lpga pro in this scenario, many of you have mentioned it, but im unsure how exactly that works in theory.

This doesn't seem to take into consideration the 6 lost balls that the 4 cap would have. There's no course that long that's that wide open that I have come across. 

 

I also don't buy the fact that lpga players hit the ball 218. 

 

My friend plays our home course with 2 very middle of the road LPGA players and said one hits the ball 250, one 280. I've also been able to watch one of the best HS females in the country play a lot, and she's definitely longer than that. So I don't buy that number

[Red4282]

6 hours ago, hahanice said:

This doesn't seem to take into consideration the 6 lost balls that the 4 cap would have. There's no course that long that's that wide open that I have come across. 

 

I also don't buy the fact that lpga players hit the ball 218. 

 

My friend plays our home course with 2 very middle of the road LPGA players and said one hits the ball 250, one 280. I've also been able to watch one of the best HS females in the country play a lot, and she's definitely longer than that. So I don't buy that number

why would a 4 cap lose 6 balls on a long course compared but not on a short course? Genuine question. Some of yall talk about a 4 cap like they are shooting 90s, i dont get it.

Its carry 218 not total your friend that said one hits it 250, surely you dont think she carries it 250? and you dont have to believe it, but on the lower end of the bell curve, according to the estimated average carry, this would be accurate. Just cause you have a few stories or experiences with a few long hitters doesnt make what im saying false.

[Argonne69]

 

Sigh. The current wave of LPGA players do not hit the ball 218 yds. Just like the mythical 300 yds bombing 4 capper, the short hitting LPGA pro is a myth. In 2019 the bottom 10 players in driving distance still managed to average 244 yds. They include former world #1's Lydia Ko and Inbee Park. Hyo Joo is also in that group, one of the best putters on tour. If they're short, they make it up in other area. Lydia is one of the best short game players in the world, and Inbee is one of the best putters. 

 

If a pro is ranked >100 in scoring average, or the money list, it's almost certain that it's not because they are a short hitter.

Edited September 17, 2020 by Argonne69

[Red4282]

16 minutes ago, Argonne69 said:

 

Sigh. The current wave of LPGA players do not hit the ball 218 yds. Just like the mythical 300 yds bombing 4 capper, the short hitting LPGA pro is a myth. In 2019 the bottom 10 players in driving distance still managed to average 244 yds. They include former world #1's Lydia Ko and Inbee Park. If they're short, they make it up in other area. Lydia is one of the best short game players in the world, and Inbee is one of the best putters. 

CARRY!!! Ive said this multiple times, you either arent reading my posts, or just flat out being disingenuous. 

[Argonne69]

43 minutes ago, Red4282 said:

CARRY!!! Ive said this multiple times, you either arent reading my posts, or just flat out being disingenuous. 

 

They carry it ~230 yds.