The Numbers Game: Tiger and Jack

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By Dave Koster via TheSandTrap.com

Jack and Tiger. Tiger and Jack. When looking at their victories over the years, they are both impressive. Tiger seems to be ahead, but Jack still has something to say about it.

Since everyone is on the Tiger train this week, I thought I'd jump aboard. Cody wrote a great article earlier in the week and so did Gary Van Sickle over at CNNSI. Gary stole some of my numbers thunder, but I have some other interesting nuggets to share this week in The Numbers Game about Tiger at 50… wins that is.



Since Jack Nicklaus is constantly disparaging Tiger's achievements, I thought I'd do a bit of a comparison between the two. Even though it's difficult to compare golfers from different eras, the results can still be quite revealing. For me, it has cleared the picture up a bit more and prepared the stamp "Greatest Golfer of All Time" for Tiger Woods.



Read on to see what I mean.

Wins and Winning Percentage
So just how do we determine the best player of all time? From generation to generation, there are many different variables. One of the big numbers that gets talked about are Jack's 18 major wins. Others point to Sam Snead's 82 victories. No matter the generation or number, Tiger has them all in sight.



To put things in perspective, let's look at both Jack's and Tiger's professional careers. Please note the word professional - I'm not counting events played as amateurs. Nicklaus started his career in 1962 and got out of the gate quickly, winning the U.S. Open at Oakmont for his first professional victory:



Year Tourn Wins Win Pct
---- ----- ---- -------
1962 27 3 11.11%
1963 23 5 21.74%
1964 25 4 16.00%
1965 21 5 23.81%
1966 18 3 16.67%
1967 21 4 19.05%
1968 20 2 10.00%
1969 21 3 14.29%
1970 20 2 10.00%
1971 18 5 27.78%
1972 20 7 35.00%
1973 19 7 36.84%
1974 18 2 11.11%
1975 18 6 33.33%
1976 17 2 11.76%
1977 19 3 15.79%
1978 16 4 25.00%
1979 13 0 0.00%
1980 14 2 14.29%
1981 17 0 0.00%
1982 16 1 6.25%
1983 16 0 0.00%
1984 14 1 7.14%
1985 16 1 6.25%
1986 16 1 6.25%
1987 12 0 0.00%
1988 10 0 0.00%
1989 11 0 0.00%
1990 10 0 0.00%
----- --- --- ------
Total 506 73 14.43%

I stopped at 1990 because that was when Jack turned 50 and, well, there wasn't a need to look any further.



After 1980, Nicklaus' career slowed down considerably. He had only turned 40, but the Golden Bear rarely had the same magic as earlier in his career. The 1986 Masters was special - and probably my favorite golf moment in history - but it might be better stated that Nicklaus didn't consistently produce in the 80s.



Still, 73 victories is only second to Snead and had Nicklaus not tailed off so fast in his 40s, he might have caught him. Of course, Tiger might catch both Nicklaus and Snead.



Year Tourn Wins Win Pct
---- ----- ---- -------
1996 8 2 25.00%
1997 21 4 19.05%
1998 20 1 5.00% *
1999 21 8 38.10%
2000 20 9 45.00%
2001 19 5 26.32%
2002 18 5 27.78%
2003 18 5 27.78%
2004 19 1 5.26% *
2005 21 6 28.57%
2006 11 4 36.36%
----- --- --- ------
Total 196 50 25.51%

In his relatively young professional career, Tiger has won over 25% of his tournaments. That's a disgusting rate. Jack won 43 tournaments by the end of his 11th year, but had played in 38 more tournaments. Nicklaus' winning percentage at that time was 18.4%. Very impressive, but a rate much slower than Tiger. Had Tiger played in the same amount of tournaments, he would have won nearly 60 tournaments by now.



Speaking of pace of victories, let's just use Jack's pace to extrapolate what Tiger might do if he finishes his career exactly like Jack - in both number of tournaments and number of wins. I'll start by giving Tiger a couple more victories this year. If he plays his normal amount, two more is a conservative amount. If we take Tiger's start and Jack's finish it looks like this:



Year Tourn Wins Win Pct
---- ----- ---- -------
(See above for 1996-2005)
2006 19 6 31.58%
2007 19 7 36.84%
2008 18 2 11.11%
2009 18 6 33.33%
2010 17 2 11.76%
2011 19 3 15.79%
2012 16 4 25.00%
2013 13 0 0.00%
2014 14 2 14.29%
2015 17 0 0.00%
2016 16 1 6.25%
2017 16 0 0.00%
2018 14 1 7.14%
2019 16 1 6.25%
2020 16 1 6.25%
2021 12 0 0.00%
2022 10 0 0.00%
2023 11 0 0.00%
2024 10 0 0.00%
2025 9 0 0.00%
----- --- --- ------
Total 485 82 16.91%

82 wins aren't very impressive, but it still gets Tiger to Snead's mark. To me, this is the very least Tiger will accomplish in his career. I can't see Tiger keeping the 25% winning percentage forever, but the way he is playing now I can see him keeping it there for at least the next five years. If does, Tiger will only be a few wins from Snead in the 2011-2012 timeframe, not in 2025



After that, it's anybody's guess. Injuries or, God forbid, accidents might happen that keeps Tiger off the course and change the above table considerably. Know this, though: if he does stay healthy, Tiger will beat Sarazen's mark easily… and challenge the century mark in wins.



Majors
Eighteen majors. When Tiger was first starting out, this was the record everyone thought would be hard to reach… and the one you know Tiger wants more than anything else.



Let's take a step back first and take a look at not only Jack's 18 wins, but his other numbers from the majors. Again, these are as a professional:



Starts 159
Wins 18 (11.32%)
Top 2 37 (23.27%)
Top 3 45 (28.30%)
Top 5 55 (34.59%)
Top 10 70 (44.03%)

Jack's winning percentage in majors is slightly lower than his "normal" winning percentage, but these stats include years past 1990 when Jack turned 50, lowering his averages significantly. He also had 19 runner-ups in the four majors as well, something a lot of people point to as a sign of his greatness.



Now let's look at Tiger's numbers:



Starts 39
Wins 11 (28.21%)
Top 2 13 (33.33%)
Top 3 16 (41.03%)
Top 5 19 (48.72%)
Top 10 23 (58.97%)

These stats look a lot more impressive than Jack's with Tiger winning more than a quarter of the majors in which he's played as a pro. Even if Jack had won the 19 majors in which he finished second, Tiger would still have a higher winning percentage than Jack. No matter how you slice it, it looks good for Tiger, right?



Well, not exactly. Let's take a lok at Jack through his first 39 majors as a pro:



Starts 39
Wins 8 (20.51%)
Top 2 17 (43.59%)
Top 3 21 (53.85%)
Top 5 23 (58.97%)
Top 10 26 (66.67%)

In the most important number - wins - Tiger still leads, but the rest of the stats slant heavily in Jack's favor. Oh, and Jack won his 40th, 41st, and 42nd majors: the 1971 PGA and 1972 Masters and U.S. Open… so if Tiger doesn't win at Medinah, Jack is going to pull closer… and if you think Tiger will catch up in the other stats over the next few years, think again.



Jack had probably the most impressive decades when it comes to major performance in the 1970s. Consider this:

• He only missed one cut
• He finished outside the top ten only five times
• He won eight of his 18 majors
• He finished fifth or better in every British Open
• He only finished outside fourth in the Masters once
  

Tiger has had a great decade so far in 2006, and it may be considered the greatest when it is done. But what Jack accomplished in the 1970s is astonishing. Oh, and his 1980 season wasn't bad, either: he won the U.S. Open and PGA Championship.



Tiger will be hard pressed to keep pace with Jack in the majors. I think he'll get by in wins, but he may never beat the other numbers. Somehow, I don't think he'll care very much.

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