Degenerate Golf Gamblers Anonymous

[bmitchem33]

I've been struggling lately trying to figure out what strategy to use either few studs and scrubs or mostly mid-lower salary guys across. Seems like lately I've noticed more of the same lower cost guys at least making the cuts than some of the mid-high guys playing to their potential. Like Jim Herman or like this past week with Vaughn (who I usually pick but not last week!) You'll see names like Herman, Hearn, Bowditch, Owen, Perez and those guys all over the board after Friday it seems but hard to leave money out their on a DK lineup hopeing a team of average Joes pulls off a miracle.

[highdraw69]

I think sometimes it depends on the tourney itself; the history of Pebble event demanded a stars/scrubs lineup, but of course Vaughn winning changed things; I also think that your forecast on selections by the masses can influence approach -- for instance, if you don't expect some of the big names to fire at a given event (which is how I feel this week for Riviera), then you can be more bold for tournament selections (cash games are a different story)...that's my 2c at least!

 

EDIT: I've also noticed that DK seems to have raised prices this year on the bottom end, which makes it tougher to fill out star/scrubs lineups; this week the bottom price is $5800, but you've got top 2 at $13,200...seems like last year there would be choices down in the $5000-$5300 range....

[1puttTUT]

I don't really have a strategy like I would for football. I generally pick 2 or 3 guys I like based on stats or recent performance and then try to fill in the blanks with a mix of safe and risky guys.

[bmitchem33]

I don't have a set strategy either really. All I basically try to do is get all my guys to make the cut and then hope for the best. There is usually that one guy per lineup that you think is a sure thing that ends up tanking though.

[highdraw69]

OK -- what does everyone see for this week at Riviera? I keep coming up with Sergio, but I'm guessing he will be HEAVILY owned...for some reason, I also really like Keegan this week...have i gone mad?

[bmitchem33]

I be been heavy on DJ and Harris for some reason. JB has had a great year so far but I feel like he is due for a couple bad rounds.......maybe time for Lovemark to breakthrough?

[1puttTUT]

From what I remember, Riviera is supposed to be a bunters paradise, but long hitters like DJ, Phil and Bubba always do really well. Not sure who I like yet. Will start looking into it tmrw.

[bmitchem33]

I think DJ has finished in top 10 or 15 the past 4 or so years

[knock it close]

I sorta like Zac Blair this week at 200-1. I have no idea why but he just jumped out at me when looking at the board. Almost won at the Sony which I feel should play fairly similar to Riv. I know he mc'd at Riv last year but that was cause of a bad first round. I think he's $6900 on DK which may be a hair steep based on his odds but it seems like the field this week is top and bottom heavy

[Gamble Gamble]

I like the Zac Blair play but it really hurts to use him because he has destroyed some of my best lineups in the past.

 

The DJ stat is interesting. Most of his deep runs at the Riv was where he went deep the week before at PB...

[knock it close]

See a Harris in here and a couple guys on twitter that are usually pretty solid are on him too, think I'm going to play him at 50-1, seems to be a hair shorter than other places but I like his form, and idk he just seems like the type of guy to win Riv.

[Gamble Gamble]

Just shelled $100 on love mark at 100-1

 

YOLO

[Mtn Golfer]

Not sure if anyone has him on their DK lineup but saw where hideki matsuyama was fighting thru an illness. Not sure how much it will affect his play, but illness/flu sure affected Jason Day a couple weeks ago.

[highdraw69]

Not sure if anyone has him on their DK lineup but saw where hideki matsuyama was fighting thru an illness. Not sure how much it will affect his play, but illness/flu sure affected Jason Day a couple weeks ago.

 

thanks for the heads up! looks like my core group this week will be Sergio, Keegan and Rodgers....

[1puttTUT]

Not sure if anyone has him on their DK lineup but saw where hideki matsuyama was fighting thru an illness. Not sure how much it will affect his play, but illness/flu sure affected Jason Day a couple weeks ago.

 

thanks for the heads up! looks like my core group this week will be Sergio, Keegan and Rodgers....

 

I heard the same and pulled Matsu this morning

 

main lineup looking like this:

 

Rose

English

Jacobson

D. Lee

K. Na

P. Rodgers

[highdraw69]

I always like to look at ownership % on my DK events...for the $3 main event ($200k prize pool), here are some numbers:

 

21.3 Na

20.0 Swedish Seve

19.3 22yearoldworld#1jordanspieth

16.8 Chucky Triple Stix

16.6 JB

16.6 English

16.0 Haas

15.6 Sergio

15.3 Elephant Killer

14.9 DJ

14.1 Bubba

13.4 Rose

12.8 KJ Choi

12.5 Casey

12.3 Prettyboy

11.5 Walker

11.4 Keegan

10.9 Rodgers

10.2 Dufner

10.2 Matsuyama

9.6 Vaughn Taylor

9.5 Hahn

9.0 Steele

8.4 Rory

 

not a comprehensive list, but some interesting looks at ownership on one of the most-played DK events! all tourneys will be different (I saw a cash game even where Rory was only 2.1% owned); I only clicked thru a few teams to get % numbers, but was surprised that Na was the most-owned that I saw (there may be someone with a higher %, I just looked at a few rosters quickly)

[Gamble Gamble]

Not sure if anyone has him on their DK lineup but saw where hideki matsuyama was fighting thru an illness. Not sure how much it will affect his play, but illness/flu sure affected Jason Day a couple weeks ago.

 

Tell me about it...

 

[1puttTUT]

I always like to look at ownership % on my DK events...for the $3 main event ($200k prize pool), here are some numbers:

 

21.3 Na

20.0 Swedish Seve

19.3 22yearoldworld#1jordanspieth

16.8 Chucky Triple Stix

16.6 JB

16.6 English

16.0 Haas

15.6 Sergio

15.3 Elephant Killer

14.9 DJ

14.1 Bubba

13.4 Rose

12.8 KJ Choi

12.5 Casey

12.3 Prettyboy

11.5 Walker

11.4 Keegan

10.9 Rodgers

10.2 Dufner

10.2 Matsuyama

9.6 Vaughn Taylor

9.5 Hahn

9.0 Steele

8.4 Rory

 

not a comprehensive list, but some interesting looks at ownership on one of the most-played DK events! all tourneys will be different (I saw a cash game even where Rory was only 2.1% owned); I only clicked thru a few teams to get % numbers, but was surprised that Na was the most-owned that I saw (there may be someone with a higher %, I just looked at a few rosters quickly)

 

Damn I didn't have Na in until I pulled Matsu

[bmitchem33]

Poop.......didn't pull Matsu in time. Hopefully he battles thru and at least makes the cut for my sake. Sorry guys I got him on my $20 lineup

[CommerceTiger]

Went with

 

Kuchar

Summerhayes

DJ

Morgan Hoffman

Justin Thomas

Jason Dufner.

 

also threw a couple bucks on bovada for all of them too.

 

[highdraw69]

I didn't realize until today just how badly Keegan misses the belly putter...he hit 15 of 18 greens and shot +1 with an astounding SGP of -3.275...it's insane to lose THREE shots in one round to the field just in putting; I can remember Tiger missing half the greens sometimes and still breaking par...+1 with 83% GIR and -3.275 SGP is, well, it's unbelievable

[Gamble Gamble]

I didn't realize until today just how badly Keegan misses the belly putter...he hit 15 of 18 greens and shot +1 with an astounding SGP of -3.275...it's insane to lose THREE shots in one round to the field just in putting; I can remember Tiger missing half the greens sometimes and still breaking par...+1 with 83% GIR and -3.275 SGP is, well, it's unbelievable

 

Exactly why he will be off the tour soon, barring some miraculous win. I knew his SGP was low but I didn't know it went above 3.

[bmitchem33]

Can the same be said for A. Scott?

[knock it close]

Hey hopefully no one took my "advice" on Blair, 77 woof.

[highdraw69]

Adam Scott SGP thru 9 today is -1.3 not nearly as ugly as Keegan was...by way of comparison, Rory only hit 11 greens, yet shot -4; Keegan hit 15 greens and was +1....just brutal with the flatstick ... one of the greens he MISSED he drove the greenside bunker on #10 ... which makes the whole short game look really pitiful for today's round

[Mtn Golfer]

How about Jordan yesterday.... Glad he was only in 1 of my lineups

[bmitchem33]

^^ same here. At one point I was sitting in 2nd in one of the $3 leagues at $10,000 but that quickly faded to $8 by the end of the day lol I took a cool screenshot though to make it look like I won a lot of money then sent it to my wife. April fools came early for her......

[highdraw69]

well...my top 3 guys shot a combined +10 on opening round! guess i won't have to be preoccupied with watching golf this weekend... good luck to everyone who has some live action still alive!

[1puttTUT]

I was actually able to put together a line-up where all 6 players missed the cut, and I only did 3 lineups :(

[highdraw69]

I was actually able to put together a line-up where all 6 players missed the cut, and I only did 3 lineups :(

 

ugh...I have several lineups with only 2 players alive...oh well, there is always next week! maybe getting to florida will take some of the strange quotient out of things