The Numbers Game: PGA Championship 2006

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By Dave Koster via TheSandTrap.com

Sometimes you have to look at the past to look into the future. The PGA Championship in 1999 was mostly about Tiger and Sergio, but there were a few other guys that had good weeks back then that need it now.

It's hard to imagine that it was seven years ago that Tiger and Sergio were paired in the final round at Medinah in the PGA Championship. It was supposed to be the start of a rivalry. It was supposed to be as if Jack and Seve were in their prime at the same time. Tiger lived up to his end of the bargain, but Sergio is still searching for the magic he once had.



There were a lot of other good golfers out there in 1999 that played some great golf at Medinah. This week in The Numbers Game, I'll look at some of the other players that played seven years ago and see if it means good or bad things for each of them.

Stewart Cink
I know that this is the PGA Championship, but most of the talk this week will center on the Ryder Cup. Stewart is one of those guys on the edge. He's currently 12th in Ryder Cup points and needs a top 10 finish to have any sort of chance. That is, if he doesn't want to sweat out one of Tom Lehman's captain's picks.



Cink does have a few things going for him though. He finished fifth last week at the International and has his game peaking at the right time. Including the International, Cink has three top fives in his last five tournaments. One more of those, and he won't have to worry.







The chances that Cink does finish well at Medinah are good. In addition to his game peaking, Cink had a great outing the last time the PGA was at Medinah. He finished tied for third behind Tiger and Sergio. Of all the guys battling for a spot on the Ryder Cup, Cink has the upper hand in familiarity and confidence with Medinah.



Will Stewart sink? I don't think so this week. He'll float to the top of the leaderboard.



Mike Weir
Here's a guy we haven't heard from much in 2006. You'd think that he hasn't done well or is struggling by the lack of his name being called out on Sunday. If you ask Mike Weir, he might agree. But $1.5 million and change isn't too bad.



Weir has had an OK year, including placing sixth in the U.S. Open and eleventh at Augusta. Words like "well" and "pretty good" aren't good enough though for the lefty from Ontario. At least it's an improvement over "poor" from 2005.



One thing that a lot of people don't remember is that Weir was tied for the lead with Woods going into the final round. He was the only plaer to shoot under 70 each of the first three days (68-68-69). But like most of Tiger's foes (or prey), he wilted under pressure and finished with a horrific 80.



This is a chance for Weir to rekindle a fire in his game and put up not only a strong showing, but a win in another major. I hate to think of Weir as a one-and-done major winner, but his Masters victory is only getting a lot smaller in the rear view mirror as he travels down the road he is taking.



Darkhorses
There are a few guys out there lurking in the shadows that we might want to consider this week. One of my regular darkhorses is David Duval.



Anyone who's read my previous columns knows that I'm a Duval fan. I want him succeed. I know that some day he is going to go off and surprise everyone. Duval has has flashes of brilliance, showing the form that made him the number one player in the world with a 63 and 64.



Like many other courses and majors, Duval has also been here before. In 1999 he finished in a tie for 10th. Of course the David Duval of 1999 is much different than the one today. At least the current Duval has made six of the last nine cuts and seems to be finding more of his game every week.



The other guy I'm watching is going to the Ryder Cup, but not as a player. Tom Lehman… for the obvious reason. A lot of people are going to be watching him to see if he makes it on to his own team. And if he does, what will he do? Will he take the spot and play or will he back out?



Lehman had a great week at the International and has the experience to compete at the PGA. He didn't play blow the field away in 1999 at Medinah, but he still has four top tens this year and has equaled his earnings from last year… and it's only August.



The only problem with Tom is his putting. He even admits this. Lehman is ranked 189th in putting average. Yet still he manages to rank in the top 40 in scoring average and top 30 in money. Tom has grinded his way into contention for a spot. Perhaps he only wants to get that spot to give it up to someone else. Perhaps this might inspire not only the fortunate player, but the entire team.



Regardless, Tom Lehman is a guy to watch this week.



The Others
The top 10 in 1999 is littered with others that are still around and may make some noise:



Name Rd 1 Rd 2 Rd 3 Rd 4 Total
----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- -----
Tiger Woods 70 67 68 72 277
Sergio Garcia 66 73 68 71 278
Stewart Cink 69 70 68 73 280
Jay Haas 68 67 75 70 280
Nick Price 70 71 69 71 281
Bob Estes 71 70 72 69 282
Colin Montgomerie 72 70 70 70 282
Steve Pate 72 70 73 69 284
Jim Furyk 71 70 69 74 284
David Duval 70 71 72 72 285
Corey Pavin 69 74 71 71 285
Chris Perry 70 73 71 71 285
Miguel A. Jimenez 70 70 75 70 285
Jesper Parnevik 72 70 73 70 285
Mike Weir 68 68 69 80 285

Monty, Furyk, heck even Pavin might make a run the way he played a couple weeks ago. That would be interesting. Imagine if two of the Ryder Cup captains make the team. What do you think of that?



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