Model Local Rule E-5

[rogolf]

> @Augster said:

> > @QEight said:

> > Still the question "can it be somewhere else?" is enough. 95% out of what? Being exact without being exact.

>

> BUT, if the location isn’t known, it ALWAYS CAN be somewhere else. A bird could take it. A fox could take it. A dog could take it. A squirrel could take it. It may have hit a sprinkler or a rock and be all the way on the other side of the hole that nobody will search. It could be in an unseen hole. All of these possibilities are infinitesimal, but answer the question, Yes, the ball may be somewhere else. So you can never really have VC.

>

> But, if you add all those possibilities up, they’ll never come to 5%. Thusly, we can now throw all of those possibilities out and we have VC. Even though it’s “possible” the ball “may be somewhere else”, as above, the chances are they’ll never happen, and they’ll certainly never happen more than 5% (1/20) of the time.

>

> Also, to the “93.5%” crowd that can’t seem to assign percentages. Your ball goes toward the PA and you lose sight of it. The ref asks if you have KVC it’s in there. You say, “4/5 times that’s in the PA.” That’s a lost ball. Or you say, “9/10 times, that’s in the PA”. Again, a lost ball. Or you say,** “19/20 times that in the PA”. Now you have VC. Take your drop. **

>

> Just like guessing where drop is when you don’t see it cross the margin, you take your best guess at the odds of it being in, after reviewing all available info, and play accordingly.

>

Yes. 95% probability means that your decision will be correct 19 times out of 20. It is purposely a very high bar due to the potential advantage gained by the player.

 

[QEight]

I know it is a dead horse... but how accurate you have to be with that 95%?

[Imp]

I keep seeing many people talking about how the latter half (95%) KVC applies to OB. Simply, it doesn't. When trying to determine if you can play a provisional, the answer is found in 18.3a "If a ball **might be lost outside a penalty area or be out of bounds**, to save time the player may play another ball provisionally under penalty of stroke and distance (see Rule 14.6)." I'm not seeing KVC in that statement (like you'd find in 6.3c, 9.6, 11.2c, 15.2b, 16.1e, 17.1c, or 18.2b (Exceptions)).

 

Seems pretty cut and dry to me. Doesn't say "KVC" there in 18.3a (Provisional Ball). Doesn't say anything about KVC in 18.2a (Out of Bounds). The only time that KVC comes into play is coming to the area where you ball is believed to be and one of the four exceptions in 18.2b is possible. Those 4 exceptions are when you need the 95% of KVC. But just saying "**might** be OB" from the tee is good enough to hit a provisional. KVC is completely irrelevant.

 

KVC 95% does apply to penalty areas though (17.1c). But Penalty areas are not "lost outside a penalty area" nor "out of bounds".

 

--kC

[rogolf]

> @Imp said:

> I keep seeing many people talking about how the latter half (95%) KVC applies to OB. Simply, it doesn't. When trying to determine if you can play a provisional, the answer is found in 18.3a "If a ball **might be lost outside a penalty area or be out of bounds**, to save time the player may play another ball provisionally under penalty of stroke and distance (see Rule 14.6)." I'm not seeing KVC in that statement (like you'd find in 6.3c, 9.6, 11.2c, 15.2b, 16.1e, 17.1c, or 18.2b (Exceptions)).

>

> Seems pretty cut and dry to me. Doesn't say "KVC" there in 18.3a (Provisional Ball). Doesn't say anything about KVC in 18.2a (Out of Bounds). The only time that KVC comes into play is coming to the area where you ball is believed to be and one of the four exceptions in 18.2b is possible. Those 4 exceptions are when you need the 95% of KVC. But just saying "**might** be OB" from the tee is good enough to hit a provisional. KVC is completely irrelevant.

>

> KVC 95% does apply to penalty areas though (17.1c). But Penalty areas are not "lost outside a penalty area" nor "out of bounds".

>

> --kC

Agree! Somebody must be giggling about the April 1 joke that suggested KVC had anything to do with playing a provisional (other than KVC that the original ball was in a penalty area).

 

[HitEmTrue]

> @Imp said:

> I keep seeing many people talking about how the latter half (95%) KVC applies to OB. Simply, it doesn't.

 

I think only one person stated that. Others have just gone along with thread drift on the meaning of KVC.

 

[QEight]

No one has suggested KVC has anything to do with OB for a long time. I agree that the 95% does not belong in this thread, and neither in the rules...

[Imp]

:facepalm: Grr. Made me look up all that, fer nuttin?!?

--kC

[antip]

> @Imp said:

> I keep seeing many people talking about how the latter half (95%) KVC applies to OB. Simply, it doesn't. When trying to determine if you can play a provisional, the answer is found in 18.3a "If a ball **might be lost outside a penalty area or be out of bounds**, to save time the player may play another ball provisionally under penalty of stroke and distance (see Rule 14.6)." I'm not seeing KVC in that statement (like you'd find in 6.3c, 9.6, 11.2c, 15.2b, 16.1e, 17.1c, or 18.2b (Exceptions)).

>

> Seems pretty cut and dry to me. Doesn't say "KVC" there in 18.3a (Provisional Ball). Doesn't say anything about KVC in 18.2a (Out of Bounds). The only time that KVC comes into play is coming to the area where you ball is believed to be and one of the four exceptions in 18.2b is possible. Those 4 exceptions are when you need the 95% of KVC. But just saying "**might** be OB" from the tee is good enough to hit a provisional. KVC is completely irrelevant.

>

> KVC 95% does apply to penalty areas though (17.1c). But Penalty areas are not "lost outside a penalty area" nor "out of bounds".

>

> --kC

 

You are not alone, others have said the same thing when this thread commenced (but it is good to verify yourself from the source).

[rogolf]

> @QEight said:

> I know it is a dead horse... but how accurate you have to be with that 95%?

Your decision has to be correct 19 times out of 20.